I was patient with DECK, and it finally paid off today. I haven't gone through all the comments, but I know several of you were in it also. I hope you were patient as well!

Sorry Jeff, while I have some spreads on that are "riding the move down" on some stocks, all of my trades are bullish.
SLB, POT and PCAR are doing really well for me...

Jeff,

I'm watching EXBD, PSA, WCG, BG and AIV for bearish trades.

I have my trade of the day for the bulls out there... SPSS.

Ah yes, i'd be remiss if i didn't point out that AVB looks like it's bear flagging here today too. I know you're in it already, Jeff, but the other addicts that missed it might be able to hop in today.

I'll be back with some ideas...but I finally got my picture to work. Hawaii...that is why I trade I want to get back there.
The parrot speaks Buffet but actually an east coast Jersey guy is naturally a huge Springsteen fan. On the drive back home tonight with meet me tonight in "Atlantic City" cranked in my car.
Jamie

Hi guys ... I too have been patient on DECK and having a nice ride ... along with WFR .. PCP... and just jumped in SLB and X yesterday late. Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on AH .. but didn't .. but there are many more out there. All bullish right now ... watching some bearish PSA and WCG ... Will spend research time this weekend on bearish .. 'Sell in MAY and go away' soon ... if annual trend holds ... I'm not going to be as bullish this year but more 'puttish' :)))) There will be good ones .. Lot of research to do before that though.

Have a good day everybody!

hi guys. i am traveling and so i was offline all yesterday. now i'm out here in los angeles. man, did you guys know the markets open at 6:30am here? crazy how that works.

also, it takes forever to read all of these comments when you miss a whole day at a time. wow.

a few of you have mentioned problems with the photo issue on the blog. send me an email at tim@dailygenesis.com and i will see what i can do to help. i may not be able to reply until sunday or monday as i'm going to be away from my computer a bit, but i'll get back with you as soon as i can.

Karen, your comment really resonated with me. Being a part of this blog community is amazing and probably one of the biggest helps to my trading. However, it can be difficult to hear so much information about great trades coming from everywhere and feel like you are being left out. I have battled with that feeling as well.

No matter what you hear on the blog about all of the great winners, know that there are a ton of losers happening as well. Of course, it's much more fun to share about winners so that's what we hear mostly about here.

Also be sure that you make sure anything you pick up here fits your rules before you trade it. There are so many times I hear someone here talk about a trade and I want to take it so bad because they are so confident in it but it doesn't fit for me, so I have to pass. Then, it usually skyrockets, so I look at it afterwards and decide if that is something I want to try and work into my rules. But I try to make those decisions outside the heat of the moment rather than changing my rules on the fly.

Not bearish but a Holy $#%* - CROX gapping up. Got out this morning with 100% gain.

Tim tell me about it 5am wake up for us here in the West coast.

ALK-Nice bear flag
AVB,MRVL(if it holds),PLCE,TGT


ENR-wow

Good night GEEK SQUAD!!!!

Sarah -- and everyone on the OTM option discussion. I have just now started working some OTM strategies into my trading. I think that you have to limit the amount of OTM trades you're willing to take, if you are trading them as a "risk 100%" scenario. After all, if you fill the entire portfolio with 100% risk trades, then you can theoretically loose 100%.

So, I take the portion of my account that is dedicated to options (which is a small percentage of the overall portfolio) and then I designate a percentage of that that I'm willing to fill with 100% risk OTM trades.

At least that's what I'm doing now, but I'd like to hear other people's opinions.

And also, I can't remember who mentioned trading HWCC this way, but I did too. It tanked but I stayed with it. At that point, there was such a small amount of premium left in the option and it's a May option. I figure it's worth the rest of the risk on the off chance HWCC could rally hard somehow. The thing is volatile so here's hoping for a recovery in the next two weeks.

Tim,

You are right on it with following your own rules. They have to fit your style.

Long- CVX, RS, CVH, FCX (all with reduced position size)

Glenn

Sorry - posted on the last post -

Here is freebie for all the great information I have received form the blog and the comments!
ATI on a 1 year and 3 month diagonal uptrending channel... Good support bounce....

SYK coming off a solid support dounce for a diagonal uptrending channel.

Enjoy! BTW: Traded MA since last week on Jun 115 Calls - Can you say :)

Thanks for all the great comments!!!

JT

I looked at the earnings of PSA and thought they would gap down today. Too bad but I think 85 is a strong possibility

David S

Tim, welcome to LA too bad we could not at least say hi to each other as I am 20 minutes (but 2 hours) away. I hate to ask you to help me again with our picture but I guess not bad enough to ask for help again. I will send you an email and too bad we do not have sun for you today.

SLB: looks like it's finally making it move up from its triangle...mouth watering profits to come!

yes to SLB Chip .. and our Addict Host has that on his Watchlist this week .... he's not missing many right now!

Tim,

Welcome to LA. Getting up at 6/6:30 is a lot of fun huh? But at least I get a few moments of quiet time looking at the market before my kids get up.

Only in one bearish trade right now which is going up so that won't help anybody. My trades all seem to be mixed up today. Still up on ISRG despite the fact that it's down today. ISIL, QCOM and CHD still up. Which I was AH!

liz
pasadena, ca

Hey guys. I have noticed that some of the confusion around the photos...etc. stems from the introduction of the "MyBlogLog" features on the right hand sidebar on Jeff's account. So, here's a little clarification:

1) If you want to be able to comment on the blog and have your profile and image attached to your comments automatically, then you need to create an account on Blogger. Do this at the very upper right of the page where it says "create blog".

2) If you want to have your photo and name a part of the "MyBlogLog" on the sidebar, you have to set up an account with MyBlogLog. Do this by clicking "view reader community" then "join community". If have not actually done this part myself so I can't give first hand experience on the rest of the process.

3) The two are separate so you won't be able to use the username and password from "MyblogLog" to post comments or vice versa.

4) You can place comments using your name, even if you don't have a blogger account. Just select "other" instead of "anonymous" when you are posting. This options doesn't let you add an image, however.

I hope this helps. Feel free to email me if you have any other technical issues. I am about to go offline here though for the rest of the day so it might be later one before I can reply.

Thanks,
Tim

Thanks Tim. I think I finally did it, with your help.

Check out FSLR this morning. Up 12% on 300% volume. Kramer mentioned it last night- could this be the reason? I sold my June 60s on 5/1 when it broke support. Obviously the wrong call (pun intended). Now it looks ripe for a re-entry. Trying to reconcile being patient with keeping losses minimal.

Yes Tim, the markets open up at 6:30AM on the left coast, but the upside is they close at 1:00PM! That leaves the afternoon to reflect, or forget, about the trading day. I'm with you on feeling a little left out of the party when the market is rallying. I got crushed holding options over earning- expensive education. Clawing my way back.

I commend those of you who have courageously shared your trading rules for accounts that have been under performing. Wonder if anybody would like to share their rules for a portfolio that is doing very well? Or do your rules morph into intuition as you get better and more experienced?

Long: XLU, OIH, GRP, X, ISIL, NVT, MON

Short: HOV

Have a great weekend all.

Peter V

Happy Friday!

Congrats Jeff and Warrior fans of the Blog!

I’ve been trying to decide whether I should go to the three day live in UT or do it online. Does anyone have any advice either way?

I wish I pulled the trigger on AH, but I chose DECK instead, not a bad tradeoff.

Will anyone be getting into the Cinco de Mayo mood a little early tonight? Nothing like another drinking holiday for this Irish guy. Everyone is Irish on St. Patty’s Day and Mexican on May 5.

on the plane yesterday, i was listening to some TOS training recordings from their chat archives. One thing that stuck was a quote:

"The best thing about options is that you can make money even when you're wrong. The worst thing about options is that you can lose money even when you're right."

I thought this applied to the recent discussions about weird OTM trades and other unfortunate things that have happened to all of us.

Looking at my portfolio I realize that I'm alphabetically challenged right now. PENN is my last option... anyone got anything that's after "P" in the alphabet?

As far as bearish stuff, thanks to the WM Dude I'm in the Geek Squad (BBY) and it's finally performing. LCC has done awesome, but it's not a good entry right now. AVB's at a good entry point and is re-confirming a great breakdown. HOV has made me money, but not much. Considering what the market's been doing, the fact that 4 of my 5 puts are profit makers has me pretty happy.

I am still kicking myself over AH as I really wanted to get into it four days ago, but just let it slip from my mind.

SLB sure looks good as an entry. I need more cash. Anyone got any lying around that they don't need?

Great comments on the blog. Congrats to AH, DECK and CROX traders. Way to go. Sorry I have been MIA. Computer problems!

Although I haven't been participating. I have been reading. Sarah, keep your chin up. Tim, thanks for allowing us to look into trading rules. I have learned a lot from your posts and the comments of others.

Jeff, the giraffe was great! I hope to one day travel on solid ground. Thank you for all you do.

Tim,

My trade frustration on IPS was not about the money loss( I did position size),it was that I was right on analysis and still got kick. Had the stock be valued at 161 or more I would smiling on that trade, but it stopped right on the strike price. what are the odds right? any way that trade is over for me, learned from it,time to move on.

P.S. Loved the marketcast and the "dark side of options". that was a laugh.

I got into a spread on DNDN for 15/12.5 and wanted to get feedback on any concerns. The ROI was over 75% on a May spread - seems too good to be true. However, even though the stock is shooting up my spread isn't profitable. Is this a concern? I am worried that I may have made a mistake.

Jeff,

thanks for SKS. great breakout today. Once again INVESTfools has totally botched the earnings date.

I've been PSA for a long while now. Is today the day to enter?

John Logan,
I attended the 3 day live in Feb. and it was great.
My trading results have turned around completely.
One of the best things I learned was very simple. Before pulling the trigger on a trade I ask myself "Am I trading well?"
Before I was trading my account balance rather then the charts. All emotion.
I would recommend the visit to the company.

Rd

Denise,re DNDN, the options are ridiculously priced because they may or may not receive FDA approval on the 15th of this month which is right before the options expiry. Way too risky for my rules.

PSA has finally started to move.

Greetings & Happy Friday....

I see some recommendations for WCG as a possible bear play. Not seeing that, looks like it’s sitting at support ready to move up to me – please share your perspective, maybe I’m missing something?


Also I’d like some analysis with a trade I took near the end of March in LVS. I started trading options in January so most of my trades are just 1 or 2 contracts. This was the first Head & Shoulders that I could clearly see so decided to experiment with it. Initially bought May 70 puts; decided I had not bought enough time but liked the trade, so I added 2 June 70s. The stock immediately began to channel sideways. My resistence line was about 90.50; got close but never closed above that so I stayed in the trade. Pretty much all the premium disappeared quickly, but like I say, it didn’t break resistence and wasn’t costing anything more to just sit there, so I’m just waiting to see what happens.

Casinos are declining this week, so with a little luck and momentum, it could turn into a profitable trade after all, which would be great. Now I’m rambling, but my point is: Was there a signal that might have prevented me from taking the trade in the first place? Instead of watching it channel for a month and a half, should I have just gotten out and moved on? Does my target seem reasonable? and I always err on buying too little time, but that’s the kind of risk taker I seem to be – is that preventing me from having larger profits on the winners?

Long: GS FCX PCU MLM
Short: LVS HOV

Thanks to everyone who contributes. It’s a fabulous learning tool!! Jeff, thanks for putting it all together. Blessings!!

cindy a
Texas Coast

Cindy,

There wasn't really a consistent trend to play in this one. That ould have been the biggest signal to me to keep me away from this trade. I understand it was an experiment, but I would trade small if not papertrade on experiments.

Jeff, where do you see the break of the neckline on PSA is it 89 or 90?

Sarah,

Even though PSA is moving down nicely it hasn't even reached average volume yet, though there are a few more hours before closing bell. I have the neckline at 90.

liz
pasadena, ca

Sarah,

I know I'm not Jeff but I thought I'd share. ;-)

liz
pasadena,ca

Jeff,

How about clueing the blog in on your sleepless "technology" upgrade that you are working on.
We'd love to bounce some ideas off of you on how you can get that company of yours to agree with your ideas!

Gary

Liz do not mean to disagree but the neck line is at 95. There is strong support at 87.50 and 85.
Earnings were bad, but they are saying that the miss in revenue was due to the merger.
If you measure the head and shoulder it calls for 12 points, but it is a pretty long pattern (85 target)

Jeff what say you 87.50 could be a good target

Liz,

I agree with David S's target, however, my neckline is drawn just shy of $94. I see the breakout on 5/1 followed by two days of consolidation and now earnings helping it along.

David & John-

I actually had it drawn there and I re-drew my lines the other day. Guess I was right the first time. Thanks!

liz
pasadena,ca

If you want to put some money on earnings play take a look at leap, gldn, bbd,hlex. These could move either way due to earnings but the charts and previous reports were good.


amx june 60 call (I think is cheap) you need 2 more up points and that call will move ( took it last week at 25c.)

i hear you sarah. my comments about OTM options and portfolio allotments were more in response to everyone's comments about should we trade OTM or "will trading out the money options make us out of money". i know you were positioned for it which is great. glad that you are moving on!

Jeff, Brett, Everyone,

I need some help...based on past experience, mostly bad, I used to get stopped out using mechanical/electronic stops on many of my trades, only to see the stock go back up or take losses larger than I’d like.

Not that they were too tight/loose, just market fluctuations. Yes, I know 3-5% below support for stock and 30-50% of option value and then limit orders at or around the target prices on the up-side. As a result I learned to use paper/mental stops.

My problem is that next week I’m going to be in a workshop...AWAY FROM A COMPUTER…! Usually, I can’t watch all day long anyway, but can at least check periodically and react as I need to, keeping track of my trades in a spreadsheet, including Low and High exits.

To protect any potential profits and losses, does anyone have any decent recommendations on how to limit loses and maintain decent gains using mechanical/electronic stops? I've never used trailing stops...although might consider it.

For all those folks that cannot watch their stocks all day, every day, I understand...please humor me...this is just what I’ve been able to do and now find myself in a pickle!

Many Thanks for any ideas! (You can wait until after the market closes to reply.)

Wow, can't believe I didn't buy any CROX. What was I thinking?

JEF is breaking out of another flag today.

MikeH

Chip:
There is a way where you can view your trades from a hand held like a palm.
You can actually trade on it. I do with options xpress. I know this is not what you want to hear but here it goes.
When I trade with options, I just let that option ride, I will make a decision based on the closing price. But most likely if you are wrong with the way you picked the price movement then by the time you pull the trigger to get some money out of it, it will be minimal. I have done much better in my trades if I pick an option and think that if I lose the whole premium it's ok. I have lots of trades going and some will flourish and some will not. But sometimes I am right with my analysis and the option gets hit, but eventually it makes it to a profit.
So the moral to the story, if you react based on volatility of the day then you will get hurt, I do not close a position unless the chart tells me at the end of day, except on some rare occasions that I will see an abrupt move to the opposite side and will close it knowing that there is no way the stock will recover.(or sometimes use it as a spread going the opposite way, this is hard to do and you have to have experience and do away eith emotion)

So, if you make the decision at night, you can load the order to your screen after hours put a high price and you can change the price through your hand held.

David S

Hi liz,

thanks for opinion,just was wondering if I saw the same entry. volume is looking good.

Chip,
When I'm going to be away for any more than a couple of days I just cash out. Things move too quickly for my liking in this business and I have had zero luck with mechanical stops (Mechanical Bulls, too, but that's a whole different story and needs a beer or two to be told properly.)

That way you can focus on your course, too and not be wondering what's going on in your account.

10 different people will give you 10 different ideas. That is just one.

Chris and Catherine

Sorry folks, forgot to give you the heads up. Catherine put on her CROX for the first time this year to do some gardening. This 20% jump was inevitable. I will try to let you know the next big news event like that.

Sorry

Brett,and Addicts
You stated that you like to trade cup & handles, could you take a look at BTU, and let me know if this qualifies. If so the stock had a breakout @ 48.00 and a retracement to the same level.

Thanks,

FYI late day trade:

sold Deck May 80 calls for 2.40... showing a little weakness and my maxx loss on this trade is now only .25... gotta love that.

LISA...

WEAKNESS = 52WK HIGH???

Weren't you touting patience here the other day?

Was that me? yes, patience, however, it's really just a weekend trade. I'm still bullish on it, and a close above today's high will get me out of my short.

we've got a lovely divergence in several places on this one. sto (highs), market forcast; all three lines are divergent to the move up, and truly, it's just to collect a little theta over the weekend.

I promise to report on Monday...

Just testing a post here, first time poster. This is increadible!!!!!!!! I love this place!!! What do you think of waiting on the flag for AH, too late for an entry even with a flag?

Jason

So far so good on DECK short call. No noticible profits, I'm basically where I was on Friday. both contracts (short and long) have moved equally, so while I'm down on my long, I'm up on my short the same amount. The insurance worked.

One other question, probably for Tim. I see others' pictures in the comments, but not mine... Is that because it's me? or is my picture not showing up. Also, how come some people have pictures on their comments, but they don't have pics on the side of the blog? Trying to figure it all out. Thanks.

Hi Lisa, if you have your picture correctly setup for the comments, then you will see the picture yourself. But, the picture for the blog comments and the pictures for the "mybloglog" area on the right sidebar are two separate things. So, you have to set them up separately.

Let me know if you need any more help.

Heard rumors of a buyout on AH.
VIP, PCP & POT are still going strong!
:-) Pat

Tim,

Yes please. I would love some help. I have a picasa account, I think i've got a picture there, but when I paste the URL into the edit page of my blog, it never stays. I think I'm using the wrong URL... please email me offline, lisa.vansand@verizon.net.

thanks for your help.