Amateur Hour

My little blogging stunt cost me a good part of the weekend, and a good portion of the day today. My hats off to Tim for helping me get things back to normal again. Tim, I owe you.

I wanted to touch on last Friday's post real quick before moving on. I didn't want it to seem like I was fishing for compliments, but I appreciate all the kind things that were said. No, I don't want anyone to write any letters in my behalf, but I feel good knowing that my approach and intentions are understood by the core of the group. So thanks again for all the nice words. Anytime you need a pick me up, I owe you one.

As always, Tuesday is New Release day, and I will throw out my weekly videos. My software has been restored and I am back online. Watch for these tomorrow. In the meantime I will sign off with the weekly watchlist from the Marketcast and hope you caught the "action points" to watch in the Dow this week.

Recommendation: Get here early for tomorrow's vids.



Tonya posted this website on the Sunday blog and I wanted to repost in case someone missed it. It contains some good resources for traders.

It was actually developed and is maintained by Investools student Lewis Armstrong who I met at my 3 Day Live Workshop back in Jan '07.

Steve K.


Anyone have insight on AAPL? I thought the selling was a little excessive not to mention for no real good reason, there was heavy manipulation at the end of the day to keep it around 120 which seems to be support. that had to have been institution selling to move that much not to mention it came after steve jobs spoke where they most certainly have analysts listening.

I am hoping for a bounce as I sadly entered into 130 calls shortly before that sell off which in all honesty I couldn't have forseen(anyone see otherwise?). I averaged down also on my options as it dropped because I ultimately feel it will come back but this is a little uneasing as I can't tell where the MM's will have it finish, will this be more excuse to keep the sell off going to 115? or just keep it at 120. I can see a move from 120-130 to next OE but 115-130 is not as likely to me.

what do you bloggers think?




Tim Knight has some interesting comments about AAPL. If you want to check out what he has to say go to:

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Thanks for the link, that is interesting, however he doesn't present much in way of actual evidence for the reason it will drop, neither technically nor fundamentally, yet he may still be right.

I guess the question is, if it technically breaks support significantly do I bail out, likely down 10k at that point? Support appears to be 118-120 anyone have a more exact level(my ameritrade graph is not very exact).

Cramer said buy it so it was up 1.2 in AH, but if institutions want to sell no small investor will hold it up.

thanks for the help.


Ahhhh brother, I am sorry that you took a hit on AAPL. Look at the history of AAPL after WWDC and the Mac Worlds, there is usually a BIG pull back either before, during, or after the conference, then it will either shoot up or keep pulling back. AAPL is notorious for the ole "Sell the news" bit.
The good news is that there is that AAPL is in a really strong up trend right now, which may save yer buttocks. Still may dip to 118 - we wont know until tomorrow to show us the direction the traders want to take it. I still believe that the iPhone has soooo much hype around it - people will be clammering to get in before the release on June 29th... the AAPL PR machine will go into overdrive and this bad boy will blow up again. Set your mental stops - and let it play out.
Jeff wrote me just under 2 weeks ago to remind me to "let the winners run". thanks Jeff - I did let AAPL run and I KILLED IT! I saw the momo change at 127 and sold - glad I did - Bot AAPL 110's at 2.50 sold at 17.20 and BOT some 115's at 1.35 sold at 12 and some change.
It is a good time to trade AAPL - lots of vol. AAPL and INTC are the only stocks I trade until something else compels me.
AAPL is a very "emotional" stock, meaning that you have to read the news, know the trends that the company is going after, and watch your volume and price. BIG MONEY will show you the way. For me, I watch for the "emotional behavior" of the traders - trading AAPL.
Watch for the direction of the loooooooong smoke stack like candles - that is usually big money showing you which way to trade. I use the 3min candles and watch the volume. AAPL can move fast and furious to the downside - protect the capitol! Remember rule #1 - dont lose money...
If it breaks 118 - my opinion is run for the hills and buy some very short term puts, or just run for the hills.
Good luck.
John Hydo aka GrooveDaddy

Thanks for the input John, congrats on the apple gains, it has been my biggest winner as well, although it may take away those gains now, haha.

I'll have to see what happens today.

I am curious, how did you see the momentum change at 127 to know to sell? Still learning the tricks so help would be appreciated.

Yea I am trying to figure out what to do if it breaks 118, if I buy puts it will likely bounce up again, or find support at 115 possibly. at this point though if I buy the puts I will have a large majority of my portfolio in apple, not ideal but I guess if I am playing both sides I am limiting my losses and risk.

thanks again.



Justice Dept. closed its investigation, allowing the aquisition of CBOT.


As GrooveDaddy states above Steve Jobs recently spoke. The problem was:

1) that no new product announcements were made.

2) Apple has stated that 3rd party developers will NOT be permitted to write applications for the iPhone, which would make it even more appealing. This limits it potential.

3) Apple is attempting to limit the release of the iPhone to keep the momentum and hype going, "supply and demand"

So for investors, all of this combined is not good news and a likely reason the stock is dropping.

Otherwise, it is a very emotional stock for 'most' investors...but not an 'Option Addict'...!!!

I own a very small position (stock) on AAPl and it looks okay still. Hasn't broken support. If it breaks support, I'll sell. I know that's harder to do when you buy options because your dollars diminish so much. Try not to get too emotional. Look at your charts and go by what you see there.

Randall and Michelle

Yeah, I read the news on CME last night. It might kind of falter a little if the market is down, but I think in the next month or so, it is going to continue higher. I am going to just watch the charts and see if it holds. It's in an up trend right now.

Randall and Michelle

Hey Option Addicts,

Did you see TNX? It's jumped again today.

My portfolio this AM is a little wobbly but it's hanging in there.

I'm not a big fan of spreads but I guess I'll be very soon especially with the VIX going up nicely again.

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DNA failed at resistance and is breaking a bear flag. Next area of support I see is the high from 2004 at 68. That is a long term pattern but sometimes these Biotechs can gain momentum. I'll look to enter the Dec 80P


KIM is helping me out this morning. Congrats to those of you in GRMN, it is looking good. I want to get in but I think it's going to get away from me.

I sold some verticals yesterday, which is the first time I've really done that as a strategy, but it's nice for uncertain times like this as you can give things a lot of wiggle room. Just be sure to manage risk as always.

The nice thing about selling is that your Reward/Risk goes up as time passes instead of down like when you are a buyer.

I stand corrected. Just sold a Put vertical on GRMN. I don't usually like to enter trades until the end of the day, but in this case, I set out the limit price I was comfortable with and lo and behold, it came back down and I got filled.

My exit is a strong, and I mean strong, close below 65. Does that sound reasonable?

This comment has been removed by the author.


I enjoy Tim's blog and his book. However, Tim's been bearish for the past 6 months. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. He should spend more time fixing those damn Prophet charts and their faulty integration with TOS and less time with his crystal ball.

And for those of you who didn't heed my call on ADSK yesterday, shame on you.

Yes, the action on X since Friday has been somewhat demoralizing, however, I find the implied volatility very interesting. If there is no buyout, as the media is convinced out, then why has the IV continued higher and not plummeted with the stock price?

Also, the stock is near support and looking to bounce, in my opinion.


Tim is pretty much bearish on everything. And I think you're right on the other stuff as well. I only mentioned him because Ben wanted to know some more info on AAPL and Tim had just written up some comments. I found them interesting so I thought I'd pass them along. My first love is this blog... ;-)

Okay, I have a question for you. It's very rare for VOLV to jump down like it has today. I've checked the news but I rarely understand the "whys" afterwards. I didn't think the news was bad, but... maybe I'm missing something? Any ideas?

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My quick take is that VOLV is at it's trendline now. I'm not big on auto stocks but if it bounces from here, it's probably a good entry.


I'm not big on auto stocks either but VOLV usually does it's own thing that's why I like it. For the most part it just keeps going up.

Thanks for looking.

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It's awfully quiet on the blog today. Where did everybody go?

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Moral Support:

For those of you looking to bail on GOOG, remember:

1) Support/Resistance is an AREA, so if it closes below $510, don't panic.

2) The day is far from over. Don't bail out and do something stupid.

In my opinion (since you didn't ask), the stock is flagging. Volume has been lightER in the consolidation and the flagpole is massive. So give it some room to breathe. Take an additional entry if the stock breaks out.

Just some thoughts.

Regarding X and volatility, could it be that volatility in general is high? The VIX is up almost a full point as I type this. Also, many of the bearish plays I'm looking at are extremely high vol and expensive now. Example, ESS,EPR to name a couple.


I am still holding these trades....

Brett, I guess everybody is locked into dining at CMG. MCD appears to be unloved here except me on the blog. But it is giving me a nice MC-profit in my account.

I'd like to see AIG get some more volume here. Can be traded as a channel breakout. 6 point 6 month target...if it happens. Also has low Ivol so they are cheaper options.


Bob Raimo,

You are a Die Hard on X ! I bailed yesterday at the close...losing most of that wonderful...short lived profit, although will watch to see how it does for a possible re-entry.

It was nice while it lasted! I guess you never know on something like that if it's going to take off or fall back this... I made 90+ % profit, so I'm still very pleased with my X !


still doing what I expected it to do when I first took the trade, higher highs and higher lows, and approaching a support area. Though monday was a bummer, it is still in its uptrend. I saw no reason to bail, umless I did so on Friday , which I did not do. I am still in the green on the trade, though of course depressed and staring at a computer screen with a footprint in it that I gave it yeseterday!

holding X as well and holding the line....even if bear downgraded it.

jamie..ive been in MCD for a few months now and enjoying it....even though im long stock

KIM potentially making another leg lower today


I am also in MCD but my profit is not quite as high as yours. I need to get better at figuring out the best risk/reward. Right now I'm in SEP 07 52.5 CALL with 28% profit.

Also in KIM with a 74% profit. My best one this month so far...

NOOOOOOOOOOO - dont put AAPL!!!!!!!
watch AAPL if you can all day... everyday, learn how it trades. dont blow up yer account matey!
save the capital!!!!! safety first!!!! Live to trade another day.

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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