Am I crazy to try and buy something here? Look at SWHC - great up volume and up $1 on this oh-so-down day. Talk me out of it.

Thanks, Jeff. AMZN, what a great stock you guys picked.

What say you on AAPL?

Okay. I'm out for the weekend. Have a great one.

Michelle

Afternoon Delight?????????????????

Amber

Amber,
I see why the Cast is already loading.

CLASSIC!
ARTY

Amber,
I thought the same thing. You may have a great afternoon. (laughter)

Michelle

Maybe it's a surprise? ;o)

Amber,
I guess it's not a surprise anymore!

liz

LFUS is this an early bouce PUT play?

ARTY

Jeff-
If you can dance as well as that guy can, you're doing really well.

Have a great weekend!

liz

And I thought he was talking about some kind of drink.........

Lisa,

hahaha!

Jeff & Amber,
I'm jealous! Have a good time!
For me, I see some serious drum banging in store for later.

Amy

BTW thanks for posting what you did about JCOM. My settings were exactly the same as yours - sure changes things when you switch them. I was seeing what you were, and now I think I'm seeing what you're seeing.

Thanks

Jodi

Thanks again to everyone for helping me keep what is important in focus today. My stocks are staying in my rules- I didn't get out.
Have a great weekend!

Lis

Glad you held, I not only held on but added to my positions and picked up a few and low and behold I ended the day in the positive from what would have been a huge loss if I paniced and got out this morning.

Thanks to all

Amber, Jeff :)

Hey guys. Need some other eyes on this decision. I exited PAYX today. I got in at the close on 8/28 which was a beautiful entry. Had a target of resistance at the previous high (46ish). Never hit it and today, boom. I see that it's holding support but it broke a trendline and big volume, so that's my exit signal.

Anyone else -- agree or disagree? Thoughts on reasons I should have exited sooner?

It's a shame to give back all profit but at least it was basically breakeven due to my great entry point.

Sold a 200/195 put vertical on BIDU when it was down under 212. Love that entry so far.

Tim,
I'm not in PAYX but I don't see how or why you should have sold sooner than today. I faced a similar situation in TSL - gave back 1/2 of my profits in the last 3 days but until today, it hadn't broken and was sitting on a fib line. I waited til 5 minutes before the close to see if it would fix itself somewhat but it got worse so I closed it.

Thanks DG. The confirmation really helps.

Intersting day.

My accounts finished mostly flat to down about 1% total. Not too bad all things considered. Dumped a couple of losers early, picked up a few nice entries with COST, KLAC. Missed a beautiful intrady dip on Superfly (SFLY) but it's sitting pretty for a Monday entry.

I lived to trade another day.

Gonna go see Stardust with my daughter. You all have a great weekend.

Bottom Feeder (MikeH)

I held onto PAYX. I entered on 8/29. I played the support bounce and then realized it could be a flag. Anyway, I set my stop at 43.07, the low from 8/16. The way I have my lines is that it didn't break support. However, after yesterday's discussion, there are a million ways to draw lines. The important thing is that you followed your rules. I don't see an exit before today and if your rules said exit, pat yourself on the back for exiting. If it consolidate here, look for another entry.

Thanks, Amy. I see your side of it too and I think there is a good chance it still makes it up to resistance. That's why the decision was so hard. It's definitely still on top of horizontal support, but it broke the diagonal trendline I have drawn and on the big volume so that's why I had to go. These things are always hard for me because I always second guess myself and I guess I haven't completely solidified in my mind what my exit signal is (whether or not I watch the diagonal or just the horizontal or how much room to give it ... etc.)

Scoot, Lisa G, Doji Girl, Laney et al.

You all are correct. Tos is $1.50/contract I was rounding down. Sorry. I did call them and you can go down to $1.25 with orders over 10 contracts.

I have been listening to Shadow trader to learn how to gauge the market for the day, not CNBC. Never could figure out what chart he uses 'til someone on chat gave me this link:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/bonusvid100406.html

If you ever wanted to go crazy and think your a Market Wizard try setting this up on a desk top and follow him all day, its sooo good.

Better than ...... well you know.

Happy trading.

Brian K

PS Jeff still rules.

Tim-
I don't see any point where you could have gotten out any earlier either.

liz

Tim,
I entered payx on the same date. I exited yesterday. Why? With the volatility being what it is I utilize candlesticks to determine short term swing trades. On 9/05 there was a bearish harami and then yesterday there was a tombstone doji or shooting star, bearish (whichever way you want to see it). This confirmed for me an exit on a short term play. Plus I had a time stop on the trade.
Hope that gives some additional food for thought. I am definitely using the candlesticks more in this environment.
Loretta

Tim
I should clarify that I am a short term swing trader.
Loretta

Thanks, Liz.

Loretta, great thoughts. I haven't ever used candlesticks alone as signals but i can see how that could be helpful in this environment. Congrats on getting out at the top! Nice.

DG,

I am still at work, so I am not sure if someone else posted this. And you have probably already checked this yourself (haven't had time to read the whole blog yet - just scan). However if you haven't, SWHC did post earnings after the bell yesterday so check that out as it jumped somewhat after hours on that news.

James H.

Tim,
The candlesticks work best at support and resistance areas; which payx was at some resistance at the 45 range yesterday so that for me makes them more telling. That said, payx is now at a support area and after hours has it moving up, volume low though so may not have weight for tomorrow; only the tape will tell.

Tim,thanks for all you've done technically for Jeff's blog. A great master teacher JEFF and great IT support by you, what a winning combination!!! Thanks to all you 'core' bloggers too for great info and support.
Loretta

C2,
Re: Hair and gorilla love children.
My personal philosophy is that my hair is migrating south to warmer climates.

Jeff,
I do not know how you brought a Web Ex back to life but great job! And what an awesome topic. EXITS!

Long: Reincarnated Master Talks

Short: Not getting to the Gym

Cheers,
ARTY

Jeff,
Job well done. You reinforced finding buy signals in great, trending stocks (bullish or bearish)...not just trading buy signals on any stock. I returned to my watchlists this evening and weeded out the none movers and looked for those big 6 month movers.
Exits...excellent topic.

Amy

The one legged DDR comment was epic! Thought that was great. Try and enjoy a meal of steak, waffles french fries and scotch over the weekend.

RyNemeth,

I love scotch.

Jeff,
I tried to watch your remade master talk but when I clicked on it on the toolbox, I got a poorly recorded original one that I had attended live. Is there someplace else where the reconstituted one is? Isn't this the week you re-recorded or was that last week?

NILE...forming a H&S top w a 20 point target/ neckline ~ 75ish?? anybody....

Someone commented about AAPL up at the top, it seems like it held 130(one institution said they would be a buyer at 130), which may be new support, but the older short term support was 127.5 I believe, I did get in but then out again with a small 100 dollar gain because I was going with the probability that apple was down big 3 days in a row and would probably bounce back to 135 but then decided i should just stick with the plan of waiting for more certain entries.

So, I am waiting till it either hits 135 and turns over, or breaks, or hits 127 and turns back up IMO i doubt it will hit 120 again, I think we see a run up again to at least 145 into october and earnings . Just how I am playing it. :-)

I stayed in GRMN, which was a good mental victory to wait until the end of the day to see it stay back above 105 only down slightly on my calls.

I established some sept SPY puts at the end of the day, since S&P broke and finished below 1458, seemed like a good entry point, what do you think, was it a good play? I almost think the stock market is going to have to retest the lows again simply to persuade Bernanke to cut, but I am no expert.

I love this blog and all the great info thanks Jeff and Eric and everyone!

Ben

Jeff, if GES breaks below suport around 46ish, will you go short??

Short everything, sell calls, buy puts.......The Boise State Bronco Nation has been defeated.

ART

Tonya
I see 75 as a support area for NILE but I'm having trouble seeing a H&S pattern.Am I missing something?

Al

Al...maybe it looks more like one of those birds that we all drew in grade school.......but i see neckline ~$75, 1st shoulder ~$80, head ~$95, and 2nd shoulder ~$85.....maybe Jeff, Brett, or Raimo can confirm or debate what i see.....hope this helps, you can also pull it up on profit charts with all studies cleared off, some times that helps me....have a good weeekend

Chris,
As I spend the weekend cleaning up the Farm my thoughts often drift to you. My lord are you sure you want to do this? We are preparing for inspection.

I will be training the dogs and getting some exercise however.

Western Digital - Setting up for a Bounce?

ARTY

Arty,
I bought WDC on Aug 6th because I thought it was setting up for a bounce. Well, it bounced me right out the next day on huge volume. That said, the stock has good fundamentals (who looks at that??). On the other hand, if you look at a 2 year chart, it's traded sideways and is up near the highs of Feb '06. *Could* it go higher? Sure. I think it needs to go a bit lower first though. There is horiz. & diag. support at $20.

Just my 'pinion.

FIELD RESEARCH

So this weekend I decided to check out two products of two very hot stocks on this blog. I've never traded CMG nor had I ever been in one of their eateries but happened to pass one right here in Boca yesterday. A quick U-turn (it was almost lunchtime anyway) and I was in front of my first CMG experience.

I walked in at 12:15 and there was a line almost to the door. Hmmm...maybe there IS something to this company after all. I didn't really know what the menu was except for the burrito that Brett always talks about but got online and knew I'd figure it out by the time my turn came.

There was an olive-skinned young man in front of me sweating profusely and carrying a backpack with some kind of gizmo in it with a red blinking light. He was mumbling to himself (or possibly to me) but it was mostly gibberish or a very foreign language. At that point I was thinking that my little research experiment was not worth dying for and was inching my way backwards toward the door.

Then I rationalized that if he was going to blow the place up he would have done it BEFORE waiting on line for 15 minutes. So I stayed.

I ordered the carnitas burrito. I didn't know what to expect but what I got was a football sized lump of dough packed with enough food to feed a small family for a week. And mighty tasty too!

My opinion on CMG - Maybe the stock IS worth $100. So, BUY BUY BUY!!

My second research project of the weekend was this Monster Java that Jeff has been touting. I went to my local stupor-market and searched high and low. No go. I even asked the manager if they have it since they do have other Hansen products. Never heard of it, he said, but he will order it for me. I was about to tell him that it's a "game changer" and to buy lots of it... but thought better of that idea. Next I tried the C-store at my gas station. No luck. There's another store or 2 I can try but I'm out of time. So the jury is still out on HANS. In any case, for reasons previously mentioned, unless that drink is liquid gold, I'll probably still not buy the stock. But YMMV.

DG-

I'm about to give you some information that I've never before released to the public, so please keep it to yourself.

The secret to ordering the perfect burrito is this:

1) Chicken burrito with half the beans and half the rice.

2) Medium green salsa

3) Corn salsa

4) Lettuce and cheese

You can even do the above in a burrito bowl (with the normal amount of beans and rice. That is the game-changer. They also have amazing quesadillas, but they're not on the menu.

Wow! It looks like we stayed away from the blog...not much traffic over the weekend. I have been revisiting Raimo's REE posts.

Hope you all have had a great weekend.

Amy

I'm just catching up on the blog. I noticed a few days ago there was
a discussion about brokers.

I've experienced a problem with the broker I use and I wanted
to know if anyone has a solution.

My situation is that I'm strictly an end of day trader. I always use
bracket orders on my initial order entry. After the first day I normally
place a contingent stop based on the stock price. The buy order is a limit
and the sell stop loss is a market order. The issue I recently ran into
is that the stock I was was working with made a huge gap against the
direction I was trading. In short I bought a put option at the bottom.
My purchase price was well below the limit I set due
to the gap the stock made. Unfortunately the stop order was cancelled
because the stop price was above the bid. This left me with no stop loss.


It seems I have 2 options:

1) Purchase my option right before the close so I can set
a contingent stop before trading opens in the morning.
This isn't an option to me since I have no availability to trade
during market hours. I do most of my entry near the midnight hour.

2) Make the stop loss order a trailing stop. I
have been hesitant to enter orders this way because I usually set tight
stops. With a tight stop on my initial order if I use a trailing stop order
intraday volatility would stop me out of a winning trade.

I would prefer to buy my option and set a contingent stop based on the stock
price (as some form of advanced order) as IT recommends but this is not
available with my broker. Which brokers out there can handle this type of
order entry???

I've heard TOS can do this and was thinking of switching.

DG
In the interest of getting a greater sample size I did a little field research today as well. The local super market here does have Monster Java in stock (two flavors). Store managers must be reading the blog.
I case anyone was wondering...16 oz can = 200 calories.

Nice work, Mike! But you left out the most important info....in your opinion, is it a Game Changer? Oh...and what are the 2 flavors?

Brett,
Thanks for the 'secret tip' on ordering. I didn't know what to order so I told the guy to just put everything that wasn't spicy on it.

DG,
I watched the documentary you talked about last week. Yikes. The first half was upsetting the last half was downright CHILLING.Thanks for the reference. I'd better stop or I'll get on a rant and G Dubya will return to the blog
;-)
I also increased the sample size on Java Monster - I got the Mocha one. It was good AND I did have better energy and headache went away, even after a weekend with too much activity and too little sleep. Guess it changed my game today.

Anonymous,
Yes, TOS can handle orders that are contingent on the stock price and/or an index even if you prefer. You could set a contingent buy limit based on the stock being above a certain price as well, which could have averted your buy limit order from going through. Limit stops and market stops both have their pros and cons of course. TOS has many varieties of advanced orders available. They recently came out with a contingent order(ie stock price) that will even let you do a limit order off the current mark (mid-price of a spread) and + or - this by a percentage or cent amount. I recommend you download their desktop platform for free trial to get familar with their variety of advanced orders. You won't be disappointed; learning how to use them all will be the learning curve.
Loretta

Monster Java flavors: Loca Mocha, Mean Bean, and Big Black (BB wasn't stocked at the store I visted).
Is it a game changer? I haven't tried 'em, but I plan to. I just hope it changes my game for the better.

Tonya,
I see H&S on NILE. The right shoulder was quite a bit higher than left which brings some caution however; it was on much lighter volume a good sign. There is also a six month diagonal trend line at about $73.50 for support. For me that would probably be my entry depending on if it bounced down and broke trend (put) or if it bounces up there it would be a good REE. Thanks for putting that one on my radar.

Anon,
Forgot to say that you can set up to 3 contingencies or conditions that have to be met before an order is executed. You could even have your stop/buy order not submitted until a specified time of day ie prior to close for example. Can you tell I love TOS?

Hey, where's hairy gorilla man, bear hunter, and AR TEE who kept up a steady banter with himself last weekend on the blog? It's probably that Java Monster to blame:-)
Loretta

i had a few free minutes and i was reading off the yahoo finance page and i found hard core evidence of why you never trade without doing your own analysis.......take a look at their bullish list of stocks: KKD, TRE, ICUI
bearish list: WMB (which is in a better up trend than any of the bullish picks), HOG, SYM

the sad thing is there are people who will trade these without forming their own opinion first...YIKES !!


Loretta....nice to hear that i am not completely crazy, when nobody else had an opinion, i was starting to think my eyes were playing tricks on me.

Apple has sold its 1 MILLIONTH iPhone, so everyone saying the iPhone was a flop and they were lowering prices due to lower demand are now frantically covering their ill-advised shorts.

It isn't the lower volume i would have liked to see, but it looks like the handle is now complete and should challenge the cup lid at $145 sometime later this week or early next week.

Brett,

I like your thinking and agree with you, I'm looking for $145 on AAPL.

I have been arguing with my computer all weekend and it is back to "normal" so that I can at least trade and watch the blog again. Stupid movie rendering software update crashed my PC. I will have to wait until next weekend to try it again.

Tim, sorry for my delay in replying but thanks for your IC input. I will have to find time to listen to those TOS clips.

I thought Eric had said wait for a dip in GLD and then buy and that was my plan. Did I misunderstand?

Other things to watch:

ELON - we talked about this one at $18.00. We talked about it at $23. Now it's $27.94 and setting up for a massive $12 triangle breakout. If it isn't in your portfolio or on your radar, make room for it.

BPHX - I think I've said enough on this one, don't you?

AMZN - Nice little saucer with a handle setting up here. Decent target.

BIDU - You aren't going to get many chances to nab this one at support. This may be the last one.

NUE - It's going to break out. No question in my mind. Maybe even by lunch.

UA - remember BCSI? We bagged it and tagged it here a week before the breakout. Here's the next one.

I want to point out that I don't know if we're going lower or not. These are all bullish plays, and they all survived the 2 big down days last week. Relative strength is valuable in a market like this. Own it.

HERO looks a little beaten down...

Brett, I have to disagree with your analysis of CMG. The true CMG experience is as follows:

-- Three soft tacos
-- One with chicken, one with shredded beef (barbacoa), one with pork (carnitas)
-- Top each with grilled onions and peppers, corn salsa, lettuce, and cheese.
-- Get some chips and guacamole on the side

This method offers a few advantages over the burrito:

1) Diversification of meats
2) Better tortilla/filling ratio in each bite
3) Lack of "the bullet" feeling in your gut later (as mentioned by Jeff)

This is just my opinion. As always, please do your own analysis before putting your hard earned money on the line.

Brett,
How did your travel go? I got in at 10:30 last night and feel out of the loop. Too cool. Maybe I'm getting this stuff. I saw the beginning formation of a cup and handle too but didn't want to mention it because I'm such a newbie and didn't want to sound stupid.
Michelle

Michelle,

The trip went well, thanks for asking. It sounds like you were gone as well. Did you enjoy yourself somewhere?

Tim,

I applaud the diversification. I tried the carnitas and I didn't enjoy them at all. However, I do want to point out that by getting half beans and half rice you at least mitigate 'the bullet' effect. Call it a rubber bullet, perhaps?

Brett,
House hunting. We are moving back to Portland. I am trying to catch up with market conditions.

Does anybody know when the Fed meets again? I was thinking it is this or next week.

Michelle

Thinking about putting in a stop for GRMN at 103.62, just below the low as of 11:01.

Anybody in this bounce trade?

Brian K

ATW might be ready for entry again. it is retesting the breakout point

Michelle,

I think the Fed is meeting on 9/18.

Yes, Brett, I do agree that your half beans, half rice methodology is an excellent way to reduce the bullet effect as well as improving the tortilla/filling ratio of the burrito. Nice call.

Volume on GRMN seems light up to this point. Is it time to bail on GRMN or do we wait until just before Market close?

Thanks for anyone's input.

VeroBarbara

okay,
how 'bout RIMM anybody playing this support for some calls?

buehler ... buehler


Brian K

Verobarbara,

I'm in GRMN from Friday. I liked the strength from such a down day overall.

$hit , I'm out. shadow trader leans toward a down day.

Brian K

Thanks Brian,

I don't like your answer, but you're are probably right. Is any in Puts on KLAC?

VeroBarbara

I have an Oct put on KLAC, target arround 51, stop at close above 57.5

Vero,
I wish I could say great minds think alike.

Since I'm in KLAC from Friday it might be wise for you to stay away from my trades. I've had a $hitty track record of late. I'm playing the downside, with a target around 50.

With my luck GRMN will rebound then take off to the upside tomorrow, but rules are rules.

Brian K

Brian,

You're basing your decision on GRMN on someone called the 'shadow trader' leaning toward a down DAY?

How about the overall trend? Support and resistance?

Thanks, Brett, for your input. GRMN dipped lower (102.6) on Fri. and had a decent rebound. Looking at DRYS, I see kind of the same thing when it first took off, and now look where it is. Sometimes, we traders-in-training need a little hand-holding. All feedback is much appreciated. I'll be watching for more.

VeroBarbara

Brett,

Just curious, about UA. does this chart compell you because the gap up is holding and consolidating in the 61-62 area, feel like I'm missing something.

Sarah

While I liked GRMN better this morning than right now I am in until the close of day < $105. Very interesting how it bounced off my diagonal support line. Looks like it may make another run at that line now (or forming a new higher low on the minute chart). I am too busy to watch the market which may be a good thing.

Hey Brett,

Thanks for the input.

I guess you could say I have a tight leash on my losses.

I based my support on GRMN at Fridays open which is right around 104, same as the close on 8/8.

I guess it all goes back to risk/reward and position size on an individual basis.

You must be talking about closing support and I couldn't tolerate an intra day P$L loss of more than 10% per option. I purchased the Oct 100's @ 10.8 on Friday. Sold at 9.30.

Let's say you also had 5 contracts. Would you have liked a draw down in a $20,000 acct. of over $1000 intraday?

I guess I thought 'I entered at my exit".

What's wrong with this thinking?

I;m not proud. Let me have it.

Brian K

Brian,

For starters, I wouldn't be holding 5 contracts in a $20,000 account. That's what's keeping you from giving your trades the necessary room to move. You need to size your trades so that you are only risking 1%/2% (or $200/$400) per trade. You're way overextended.

Second, what is your reason for trading GRMN? For most people, it's the triangle breakout that is holding up through all this turmoil. Your exit should really be the triangle lower trendline (about $100). The reason i say this is because this is a VERY strong trendline, and even if the breakout doesn't hold, there's a better chance that the trendline does.

So, perhaps if you held 2 contracts, you'd be able to be more patient with this trade, and not get kicked out on a down 250 day.

does this help at all?

By the way, I consider myself a momentum swing trader if there is such a thing. ST helps me gauge momentum. However, he has had some bad calls lately on individual stocks.

He really is a day trader and should be used if you trade that way.

I do keep my own watch lists and choose my own trades.

Brian K

is anyone still in EXM. Am i correct to see diagnal support arround 42. just learning the patence game as I see lots ot profit going away as it retests the breakout.

what do you guys see here?

Thanks Jeff, helps alot.

I agree with position size, buuuuut you know some times, its hard when you get , ya know, that feeling the stock is gonna go.

Bought at 104.98-100=4.98.
That would push 5% Loss. I guess its all in the entry. So hard in this market. Ugh.

Thanks


Mahmood, EXM could retest to 42, just like GRMN waite for the best entry in this market.

Brian K

OOPS,
meant to write Brett not Jeff.

Brian K

I'm in VMC. Got in anticipating the symetrical triangle breakout. It has finally done that. Looking at a target of $79, Looks like strong support/resistance on a two year chart. Any thoughts?

This comment has been removed by the author.

for VMC, i think the breakout occured on 9/5. Now I would wait for a retest since it has moved too much. Although you can also say that there was a breakout on 9/7 at 85 but the volume was not there on a very negative day

UA and NUE-- broke supports, should I wait until the last hour of the day to see if it rebounds? That's what I did Friday and all worked out well. But...these aren't looking so good.

GRMN is not having a pretty day, but I think it will be fine in the long run.

UA just hit support and bounced from it today. I think it is a REE at this point with the stop being a close below 60. by the way that is a 50MA support line

Mahmood,
I Like UA. The past would say retail does well prior to the holiday season, but not this year(maybe, caveat... ya know).

I'll see your UA and raise you a JWN sym triang.

Brian K

I am back from the mountains. I brought bulls back with me...


CVH..whats the problem here? It is REALLY testing my patience..

Raimo,
Did you shoot your foot?

More sellers than buyers is the problem with CVH' invert H&S.

Brian K

May I present a new name for your bullish watch lists: CCC

Do some analysis. I have an entry point in mind and it is very close by.

Jamie

Hey Brett,

What's your weighting now.
Bulls vs Bears. 50/50 ?

Brian K

Hey Jamie-

I'll take a crack at CCC...

Ascending Triangle
Enter on close above 14 w/ volume.
Stop close below 14.
Target=17

Fire away!

Peter

CVH..inverse head and shoulders..a reversal pattern? WOW...

Here wo go....

This will be a great learning experience for those interested, me included.

Here we go...

First, my take.

Stock has been in an uptrend, to a sideays trend. I see your inverse H & S, but the pattern itself is not at the bottom of a downtrend. The question here is do you count the formation of the left shoulder etc as the downtrend, or do you consider it a reversal pattern only if the entire pattern is at the bottom of the downtrend, which in the case of CVH, it has not....

So, I say lets open this puppy up to debate, and learn from it, which is why this blog is here in the first place....

Bring it on..........

Lets rock and roll....

(I did scare a lot of bears away this weekend by the way...) LOL...hope these stragglers get the message!

By the way...GRMN at REE..

CCC is a REE with support at 12.6, use the support line for stop with anticipation of triangle breakout traget of 17. entry at 13, target of 4 and risk of .5

good stuff

my take on CVH (by the way I do not have a trade currently on it)

It has been hugging the 50MA for last 10 days and now 200MA is coming up from the bottom creating upward pressure.

currently it is in a channel b/w 61 and 46. because It has not moved for last 10+ days I would look for a move either way before I take a trade on this. I do see the inverse H&S on it.

Signals not clear on this for me to take a direction or a trade.

Just my thoughts

CVH- I see the inverse H&S patterns, but it doesn't fit since I consider the overall trend to be up. On a long term chart, I see an ascending triangle with the current price action bouncing off of support. I originally played a put. However,the long term support from the end of 2004 is keeping this stock from moving down. With that in mind, I sold my position. I took a small profit. The trade no longer fit my original analysis. I failed to look at the long term trendline when trading this stock.

I agree with Raimo regarding CVH. Inverse H&S is found at the bottom of a trend. I think CVH is just beginning a trend down. It has failed to make a higher high and MAY be in the process of making a lower low, but needs to clear that 200 day MA with some conviction. Check out a 2 year chart. There is a lot of noise between $57.50 and $55 range. If $55 is broken, would $50 be a reasonable target?

My $.02 on CCC is that it is simply an uptrender coming in for a bounce off of a trendline I have drawn between the closes on 3/5 and 8/28. i also have a horiz resistance/support line drawn in about $13. A close above today's high ( if it is the low day) would be my entry signal.

Dan

CVH,

I was in this trade lst week,exited w/ a small profit. It looks to be finding support in the 56 area and just underneath the the 200ma. When is it didn't roll over on friday's big down day i decided to move on. the longer it hangs here the more bullish this looks to me.

Raimo, glad you are back safe. GRMN is a better REE now that when I got it, not if it keeps sinking like a stone though.

Question about REE...

Several stocks are retracing to the longer term trendling. Do these fit REE?

WNR, GMCR, PCLN, SFLY (a little of the lows), and OI ?

I am not sure if buying here is catching a falling knife.

Michelle, you are leaving the Dallas area? I was hoping to meet you.

A few more REE...

CMI, FSLR

Raimo,

Let me clarify:

I answered:
More sellers than buyers is the problem with CVH' invert H&S.

I agree this occurs at the end of a downtrend. If one thought this was an Inver H$S, that would be a mistake.

By the way, why did you buy this, what pattern am I missing.

Are you still in BEAV. Weak volume on the downside.

Brian K

CVH - I entered a put trade on this on 8/28 when it bounced down off the diag. resistance and broke through the 50 MA to the downside. It's been sideways since then, trading on either side of the 50 MA and skimming along the diag. After 10 days, I am currently at breakeven with this trade and losing my patience. I still think it should go lower but what I think matters little. I don't know what kept it from falling on Friday with the market.
I see lower highs but so far, no lower lows. I don't have a hard rule for time stops (should I?) since I'm usually in and out of trades quickly. I'm as on the fence about this one as the stock seems to be.

Does anyone see BIDU aa good REE now (Around $214) based upon chart ?

BIDU has a little more volume than normal

DRYS also looks like a good REE

David in NH

Peter, I see the same thing but my thinking is the same as mahmood.

I entered at 13 with a 50 cent stop. My first target is $17. I bought the stock. I'd add an option on the breakout.

Jamie

I don't see any support for DRYS at this price level. I am waiting for DRYS to retest the diagonal support line starting back in Feb/Mar.

KLAC - if it closes up at these levels I think the pattern has failed since it would be back inside the triangle. Is this correct? Also I think the hammer candle would be significant here.
Other opinions?

DG and everyone else who took down KLAC-

Did you not see support just below?

I guess Friday was the day to enter FAST, but I didn't act fast enough.
My first target is 40, then 36ish. Thanks Jeff.
Peter

Brett, I did not see the support for KLAC, but now I see it if I change to a line chart, I think I am going to add that to my check list. still there is a slopping resistance line above which was my orignal stop point. I am going to hang in there until that is viloated.

Does anyone see BIDU a good REE at this level ? -

looks like it hit support and started bouncing.

LDK is one to watch. It is overextended to get in now, but has been going up like a rocket.

JP from OC

OA's

LDK could be considered a flag and is breaking up from its flagpole. It is far from diagonal support but is moving to the upside from horizontal support.

Is that what other people see?

JP from OC

I was looking for a support bounce on LDK around 50-51....it looks like I will have to wait for a while.

It sure got quiet on the blog. Looking for some comments about catching a falling knife on the stocks that are at support, but have not indicated they have stopped going down. Too high risk, or good REE?

JNPR is breakout with volume

Brett,
I see support for KLAC at the 55 level which was my target.

ok,
did cost H&S fail with a close above 57.47?

anybody bailing now.

Brian K

COST-

Did anyone see support below at $56? Check the long-term trendline.

Brett,

Thanks for reminding us to use long term chart!

For some reason I did not see support or resistance more long term so I had to add to my rules that if within X % I move on as not enough of a move. It is amazing how I can get so focused on so many more detailed issues and forget the simple! Not in these trades but Brett and all thanks for the reminder.

GRMN coming back again end of day...

Looks like KLAC is gonna finish today back inside the triangle. Grr....

Fire truck this market.

COST . duh . yup.

I'm out.

Brian K

Check out the price movement and the volume on VMW. What's up with that?

I am in nvda (oct call) with a small profit... today after market they will do a stock split... would you guys stay in or get out?

Thanks!
Steven

Ok here's the new plan.

I've been wrong 8 out of 10 times as of late.

Soooo... I will begin selling what I think I should buy and vise versa.

Here we go.

Brian K

If you look at COST on a line chart, today's action looks like a retest of the neckline. I do see long term trend support around $56. We will see over the next day or two which is stronger. Until it crosses above the neckline, I'm still in the trade.

Joel R.

Steven,

If there wasn't a stock split, would you sell? In my very limited experience with stock splits, I did better if I watched the price action. Sometimes, I got out prior to the split and then watched it run up higher. The only reason I got out was because of the split.

COST,

I agree w/ Joel R. until a close above 58,I'm still in

Steven stock split should not have any effect on the stock price, other than making it more affordable for future buyers. $50 seems like a reasonable support level.

What about SLB anyone see any opportunity?

Amy, usually when I decide to hold over events I get hit bad and when I play safe and sell before events it usually runs up and I miss the action. Seems I always make the wrong choice. I guess selling is safe because you never know what will happen. nvda could see a big sell action tomorrow or could see a nice run.

-steven

SLB doesn't look bad, confirming previous resistance around $94-95 as new support. Many stocks stall around $100. You may want to wait for the break of $100 before taking the trade. Set a tight stop, who knows what's going to happen with the refiners. Oil is still expensive and gas is still cheap (sort of), not good for the refiners.

Joel R.

Clean Cups!!!!

Check out BEBE breaking down today from descending triangle.
Peter

Brian,

The advice I wish someone had reminded me of last month when I hit a bad streak like that would be to stop trading until you figure out what you are doing wrong. You must protect your capital - don't try to trade to get it back right now. I feel your frustration buddy, don't let it get the best of you!

A friend of mine told me that part of being a good trader is knowing when not to trade.

MNST

Jeff, Anyone:

GRMN and KLAC both are trading with lighter than norman volume. It looks like the conviction is lacking on both of those. How does that play into the near term Price Pattern?

VeroB

Amber,

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/VZ-NBC-employment-CNBC-Maria+Bartiromo/index/a/14042

You're afternoon delight has hit mainstream media.

Embarassed?

Well if stock chat can't get ya in on the good old Minyanville, now we know what will!

Not that you should ever publicize that again............

amber

I took CVH as a bounce off $58....no pattern trade here for me..just a resis bounce....

BEAV..got out of that some time ago....

Shall we go back and re visit who brought up the afternoon delight first?
Funny though!

Brian,

You jumped out of COST?

Slow down my man.

It's days like this that leave me unsure of anything. When a stock such as GRMN has a pullback on lower that normal average volume, is that just a pullback or do I need to change my strategy?

I am certainly willing to cut out of KLAC, but sometimes I feel like the proverbial "deer staring into headlights."

VeroB

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TEST