Just Another "Day in the Life"
It could be worse. I could be seeing a lot more pullbacks, such as ADSK, CNQR, WFMI, and DVA are slapping me with today. Good thing I am only losing profits here.
I hate days like this. When I lose the equivalent of "Belle Isle" in time value. Nothing I can do but take it like a man, and sit here and watch my trades melt.
By the way, I am not fighting the trend in LVS or WYNN either. Just in case you were wondering.
What has me really happy though, was that someone noticed some big news about one of our benefactors of free online advertising. In all seriousness, click here to check out the recent news about my long term investment idea in Hansens (HANS). Nothing like an analyst who wants a little boost in his stake to come out and throw down an upgrade. I wasn't kidding when I told you this new drink would be the Game Changer. For newer readers, click here to go back in time and look into my crystal ball.
Since earnings season is upon us, the straddle/strangle idea surfaced... and I decided to look at the chart of my bread & butter strangle play... MSTR. This strategy has worked 8 of the last 8 times I have traded it. The strategy is 3 weeks early, 1 strike out. I hesitated though when I saw the chart...
The stock obviously was crushed after the last earnings announcement, and looks to be confirming a bottom here. Volatility is quite a bit higher this time.
Before I forget, I still love China.
Here are a few other thoughts I have taken out of this mornings session thus far...
STRA- Watching for a re-testDWSN- Glad I bought the dip yesterday
DE- Ditto.
CMI- Yes Please!
ARW- Wants to break out sooooo bad!
I think this is a powerful quote in so many ways. I'd love to hear any thoughts about it. Does it motivate, or discourage? Does it offer any perspective? This opened up a great dialogue yesterday on strategies, suitability, perspectives and think it could be an interesting topic today.
Feel free to chime in, or just go about your typical day.
Recommendation: What are "limitations?"
Long: Capabilities
Short: Limitations
Disclaimer: Trading involves risk, but only the risk you create.
Jeff,
Thanks for all you do - your site is an invaluable resource, and I don't believe you can hear that enough times.
What do you think of a couple of Solar plays - JASO looks to have formed a bullish flag off of a breakout over resistance at $43, and TSL seems to have a nice initial target of around $66. Any thoughts?
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 11:42:00 AM
Sorry, that last post was by Mark. Thanks.
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 11:43:00 AM
I think investing is for everyone. It is your money at stake. What a better way to make sure you protect it or grow it by being personally responsible for it.
There are thousands of mutual funds to choose from. You have to know your investment style and what you like and don't like.
The more investing education people receive the better investing decisions one can make.
Then again, if you are just down right lazy and don't care...go ahead a buy a fund.
Daniel
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 11:46:00 AM
Anyone like the setup with CHU ... not at REE but bustin out with volume. I was looking at the Jan 20's.
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 11:47:00 AM
Jeff
What do you think that "AZO" that you mentioned in the marketcast. It looks like that it is NOT going down...should we cut the loss or be patient?
thank you
Mimosa
Posted by 含羞草 | 9/27/2007 11:57:00 AM
Can everyone trade...YES!
I believe trading limitations are created within the individual. I think the biggest limitation traders suffer from is self doubt. Am I right, am I wrong, how can I trade like others....? It has taken three long years to find a strategy that works for me. It is still in the baby phase, but I am profitting and having faith that what I am doing is the Holy Grail for ME. What works for one doesn't work for someone else.
It has been said a hundred times..."You have to trade your own strategy and your own rules." This blog is invaluable for finding resources to develop one's own strategy, but it is still up the individual trader to pull it all together and make it work.
Amy
Posted by Amy | 9/27/2007 11:59:00 AM
Mimosa,
I don't have a crystal ball, but just so you know, I got into puts on AZO today at the highs this morning. I'm looking for a strong close above 115 to get out.
Posted by Tim | 9/27/2007 11:59:00 AM
This is a perfect quote to pass on to all the friends who ask me to invest their money.
Posted by Sarah | 9/27/2007 12:04:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Jodi | 9/27/2007 12:07:00 PM
I think it's a great quote if you are trying to sell mutual funds.
I believe limitations are only a figment of our imagination
Posted by Jodi | 9/27/2007 12:08:00 PM
thanks Tim.
I am thinking along the line...
I had set the target to 105, but the way it is going, it may be too agressive..
I will lower my expectation.
Thanks for sharing!
Mimosa
Posted by 含羞草 | 9/27/2007 12:09:00 PM
Well said, Amy.
Jeff and this blog are invaluable tools for me, but it is still up to me what I trade, when I buy and when I sell. The best thing about trading is I always know who is responsible for my trading results....me.
Posted by Sam_H | 9/27/2007 12:09:00 PM
Jeff,
I've been meaning to ask, why are you in both WYNN and LVS? they trade similar,in the same industry group etc. Why not just one ticker(bigger position) instead of two. what was it about this setup that made you double up in the same group. I've thought about doing this before,but hesitate because of the focused exposure to one particuliar group. when do you decide to go big in just one stock or take down two?
Posted by Sarah | 9/27/2007 12:14:00 PM
Trading is tough. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. With this said, I really enjoy your site. Your insights and trading style makes trading a little easier...if that was possible. :-)
Keep up the good work.
Posted by da2rth | 9/27/2007 12:14:00 PM
Jeff,
I read and reread the quote. There is a part of me that can relate to the the essence of that quote. IT is what I grew up with the idea that I was meant to be a doctor and to leave managing the money to others. That to even attempt what I am doing now is ludicrous. I fight it every day. I took to trading because I fell in love with it. It was not easy having no financial background what so ever. When I started I didn't even know what a mutual fund was. The last two years have taught me a lot. I have set my goal to become one of the top in this field and I although I do not know when I will reach it I know I will.
What I realize is that many insurance salesmen, financial advisor's and such use the thoughts like in the quote that have been planted in peoples heart so that they can make the commissions form the money you invest with them. Since reading this blog I see that anyone who has determination and drive can be an excellent investor. I think thought that Brett said it before it is not for the faint of heart.
You have to be willing to work and put aside the biases you have been trained with and accept that along the way there may be setbacks to learn from. IN order to succeed you have to be willing to get on the playing field and that means taking some beatings but also be willing to put the energy to learn form them. A wise person said to me you have to "wake up each morning like a warrior entering the coliseum". One day I will stand as proof that anyone can do this. And I would owe that to you Jeff adn the others who make this community a place where we can all move towards achieving our goals.
Anu
Posted by Anu | 9/27/2007 12:20:00 PM
We are mostly limited by our attitudes toward change and belief in ourselves among other things.
I'm impatient and want to know everything yesterday. It's kind of a scary feeling like everyone else has their s**t together and I don't. Dojis, strangles, diagonal resistance, hanging hammers......WTF? Hm, a mutual fund doesn't sound so bad.
Everyone is taking profits on China, HANS, gold, right?
Not me, not yet. I have to let that be ok FOR NOW. Patience and time.
I know I CAN trade for a living and make a lot of $ but WILL I?
:)
Posted by lara | 9/27/2007 12:24:00 PM
Jeff,
I think investing IS for everyone as long as they take the time to learn the area they are investing in. Trading, on the otherhand is not for everyone. When reading about Bruce Kovner in the Market Wizards book, he said he has personally tried to train 30 people to be traders and only 4 or 5 of those turned out to be good traders. That paragraph scared me. It is also motivating because the underlying message is it takes a lot of time and work to be good. That doesn't mean you can't become "competent" and still make some money. It is interesting that even the most successful traders all lost significant money intially and seemed to make very similar mistakes that we all discuss and struggle with every day. My feeling is, if they can make a living at trading, there is no reason I can't or that we can't.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 12:26:00 PM
There are days I think I should be buying mutual funds. Thankfully today isn't one of them.
Here's a few ideas I've been watching... I'm currently all in so can only watch.
BYD - gaming stock, pushing past resistance at 44
XOM - cup n handle at resistance
ELON - triangle retest
ONXX - support retest/bounce
SHLD - retest of 130
CLF - breakout
Posted by Mike | 9/27/2007 12:27:00 PM
Anu, Very well said! You will get there with that attitude.
My short answer to limitations in trading is 'fear and greed'. I believe we can reprogram ourselves so we no longer think about those. 'Trading in the Zone' is one book that can help as is this blog.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 9/27/2007 12:28:00 PM
There is no shortcut to achievement- only gates that are open by persistence.
Posted by Lisa | 9/27/2007 12:30:00 PM
LAMR is retesting the desc. triangl breakout if you need a low risk entry for a put.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 12:38:00 PM
IGNORANCE IS THE GREATEST RISK OF ALL!
(-that's my own quote)
Mike
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 12:39:00 PM
Like the quote, Mike!
:)
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 12:47:00 PM
Jeff,
In response to your quote, I believe that quote is likely referencing personal investing, ie being in control of your own portfolio. In that regard I agree, some people have no interest in learning or controlling their own money, which is why financial service companies exist in the first place. Some people have no business handling their own money if they don't properly educate themselves or they invest with emotion or invest in stocks for their tickers(my grandma invested in AMEN due to the religious ties, true story). If you cannot beat the market after a couple years or even beat a CD rate then have others invest or just put it in the bank. That is the reason I took over my portfolio, we were getting less than 2% a year for the past 7 years with most of that being from best buy.
Now even though I am currently down, I have no doubt I will be in the black by the end of the year as I learn and adapt and hone my skills. I am the kind of person who thinks if someone else can do it, so can I and possibly better.
In short, everyone should invest, but depending on what type of person you are, doing it yourself may not be in your best interest(pun intended?).
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 12:49:00 PM
Jeff, Although I believe most people have the brain power to be traders not many have the ability. Off the top of my head some traits needed to trade;
Be able to admit you are wrong.
Take responsiblity for your actions.
Admit insecurities.
Over come said insecurities.
confidenc not cockiness
Belief you will succeed.
Desire to succeed
discipline
Perseverance
Diana
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 12:56:00 PM
I am curious what Jeff and the other OA's think about the current economy situation. With Jeff and Eric predicting a recession and it possibly happening does that necessarily mean the end of our bull market?
I have looked at the much referenced Jan 01 fed easing as a reference, but has global expansion for business maybe changed this time?
Some have made the claim we can be in a recession and a bull market at the same time because now many of the stocks get a lot of business from overseas so growth will continue.
what do you all think?
Also, just to put it on some people's radar, ACH aluminum china corp broke above 68 to new highs recently.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 12:56:00 PM
Mike,
Great quote! Today's market has been quite for me. Nothing powering up (or down) of any significance.
Long:
AMZN - has a steady climb in a small channel.
BCSI - Waiting for the breakout of the ascending triangle.
CNQ - Looks like a cup & handle. Waiting for the move up. $73 exit.
GRMN - I know, no more talking about it. (but I do like it!)
POT - $106 target, $103 exit.
RIMM - $103 target, $95 exit.
Short:
COST - This one may hit my exit today. Flirting heavily with the exit price.
AZO - May do a put play dedending on how the close looks.
Any more details on the Fantasy Trading?
Barbara
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 01:04:00 PM
Elder teaches in "Trading for a Living" that fear and greed are essentially the same emotion. (Greed being the fear of missing out on something).
Jeff, thanks to you and the community on this blog I am better able to wrestle with these two demons, keep them in check, and thus become a more consistent trader.
Still a work in process. . . .
WFMI recovered well after 10:30 this morning.
Posted by Sam_H | 9/27/2007 01:04:00 PM
Ben:
Not to be flippant, but I do not care so much which way the market heads as long as I am able to react to any changes in direction and trade accordingly.
For now however "Its a Bull Market"
Posted by Sam_H | 9/27/2007 01:07:00 PM
Jeff,
If it was not you i dont think so i would have been confident enough to trade. Eric and yourself thru Marketcast have made financial analysis informative and entertaining.
With that said.. i have come to a conclusion that if i fear and not take the trade then i wont be a trader at all. Therefore, i'm taking risk for the trades that i've analyzed.
Meena
Posted by Unknown | 9/27/2007 01:08:00 PM
Look at GRMN go!
VeroBarbara
Posted by VolSmile | 9/27/2007 01:24:00 PM
I am so glad I added to my position in GRMN yesterday. Had I not been on the blog reading what Brett, Raimo and Jeff had to say on the subject, it never would have occurred to me to add at the pull back.
I'm still a work in process. . .
Long: Learning to identify obvious opportunities on my own someday.
Short: Fear, greed & self doubt
Posted by Sam_H | 9/27/2007 01:26:00 PM
AZO ...
I'm curious why people are still bearish on this stock? On 9/17, earnings came out which apparently the market liked a lot as it jumped nearly 10% in two days on the news. Sure it consolidated a bit over the last week but now showing renewed strength. It clearly broke the diagonal resistance in place since July, but with earnings, how much confidence can we have that what goes down will keep going down?
Posted by Matt | 9/27/2007 01:26:00 PM
Ben,
Things like a recession are a process, not an event. So much energy is wasted wondering what will happen months and years from now, when it can be better served reacting to the market as it is today.
Our economy sucks. We are debt driven, and we fix it by adding more debt. The job market is showing signs of weakness, and the credit & housing market condition is taking away resources for spenders. However, the market moves higher. Rather than interpret it, just react to it and make changes along the way.
Posted by Option Addict | 9/27/2007 01:29:00 PM
Sarah,
I took both because they compensate for each other nicely. Last time I only traded one of the two, I wished I had both.
Jeff
Posted by Option Addict | 9/27/2007 01:32:00 PM
Matt,
In AZO, I drew my top trendline from 07/06, the bottom trendline from 08/09. It appears to be at the top of the trend line, but has not rolled over yet.
AZO is also going down on the Big Chart and the Acc. Dist Current is below 40.
The chart is main thing I look at. The information I look at on the Snapshot tab only reinforces my decision as to whether I am going to play that particular stock.
Barbara
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 01:43:00 PM
DRYS
Sailing higher today. (sorry couldn't resist)
Posted by Sam_H | 9/27/2007 01:44:00 PM
Matt,
I have a put on AZO, and I'm beginning to wonder about it. Doggone it!
VeroBarbara,
I know we're not supposed be talking about GRMN still, but I'm with you. The profits keep racking up! Whoo Hooo!!!!
All,
As for investing, I agree with an earlier blogger that investing is for everyone, but trading may not be. I am finding that trading requires a great deal of mental and emotional aptitude. I did not have this aptitude when I first started this June (hence the reason my account is down), but I am developing it (hence the reason I am recouping those losses, slowly but surely).
Trading is definitely NOT for the faint of heart because with every loss, you have to look at yourself and be honest. Why did you lose? Greed? Fear? Impatience? Not trusting yourself, so you just blindly listened to others? (I have done all of the above)
Robert Kiyosaki quoted his Rich Dad as saying, "There is no such thing as a risky investment. It is instead the INVESTOR who is risky."
Krystal
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 01:45:00 PM
Kiyosaki is a douche bag.
Signed,
"Poor Dad"
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 01:47:00 PM
AKAM...
Posted by Amy | 9/27/2007 01:49:00 PM
Investing is risky... Sure it is!!! But if you have money "in the bank" then you have the responsibility (or should) figure out how to make it work best for you. It's kind of like saying "Driving a car is risky and is not for everyone. Sell yours and take public transportation." Obviously that's ridiculous and if you own a car, you better figure out real quick how to drive it before you hit the road.
Posted by Matt | 9/27/2007 01:51:00 PM
Lots of volume on ELON in the last hour of the trading day. Right as it went below 28.60 support it shot down. Now it appears the buyers are coming in, hopefully.
James H.
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 01:55:00 PM
James H.,
I've got a call on ELON. I'm down just a little right now, but it looks like it closed RIGHT AT the diagonal support line that I drew in.
No worries...
Krystal
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 02:01:00 PM
Brett (et al.),
What does the surge of volume there at the end mean for ELON? Last minute of the day, it appears there was 60k volume. And from 3:33 on the volume was heavy and building. Buyers coming in after selloff? Stops being taken out?
What can you decipher from the way that happened?
James H.
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 02:08:00 PM
Aye Krystal,
I have it bouncing right off of that diagonal support also, I was concerned about the volume increase.
Retests don't bother me, but that it went through a line it looked like it was making a nice little bull flag down to, and then the volume shot up - made me nervous.
James H.
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 02:12:00 PM
Krystal,
I agree with your thoughts on AMG, and looks like I will add to my positions.
I think that no one cares about our money as much as we do, and therefore we choose to do a combination of investing strategies. Certain decisions do put us in limited selection of mutual funds. Those instruments have a quaranteed return and have worked out beautifully. But, the down side is there is a somewhat limit to growth and gains. As we get older, we choose to direct more monies to fixed income. I love to trade and make money, almost as much as spending time with family and playing golf! The thing about IT is that we are very excited and motivated to learn more and to become even more successful. Our learned knowledge helps us to keep those "professional managers" more accountable. We had a painful experience realizing that they had great entries but lousy, let me rephrase that as NO exit strategies until it was too late. Ever ride a good stock/stocks down 50% or more? The thing that I personally have learned is ,yes I can do this! I can not say enough about Jeff's willingness to teach us and how much I appreciate his calling here to guide us. I am in awe of his knowledge and wisedom as such a young age.
Thanks Jeff!!
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 02:15:00 PM
Oh man... my head hurts. I caught a cold in Mexico city and bailed on the rest of my day. I have soooo much blogging to catch up on. Just a thought for those looking for a good call... I've been in NOV (the stock) for a while now and it just keeps moving up like PCP did in the "Good ol' days." Might wanna have a look.
I'm going to try to catch up on the last 3 days... but I might be up all night.
I don't know where the Fantasy Trading Game ended up but it occured to me in Mexico (the 7300 foot altitude may have had something to do with it) that we should have three teams, captained by Brett, Raimo, and Jeff. We all throw our hockey sticks into the middle and the three captains just pick sticks. Allows for some randomness. Sort of like my thoughts.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:15:00 PM
Trading is like any other profession. Can you just pick a profession and become an expert overnight? I don’t think so. With a LOT a dedication and hard work one can TRY to learn how to trade (profitably?). We are fortunate to have an excellent teacher and coach in Jeff, who constantly helps hundreds and thousands (may be millions) of people every day. Having the guidance of people like Jeff would definitely make learning easy and enjoyable.
Jeff, Thank you for all the stuff you do for us.
Sreeni.
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 02:26:00 PM
Jeff,
I took some time and analysed your trades that were stagnant... after all if I'm going to be on your team I have to prove my mettle. I see that virtually all your listed trades were up 1 to 3% today. Are we getting greedy? The other thing I noticed is that they're ALL calls. Now listen here, young man. A man of my age and wisdom would say to you that you should be more diversified than this. If you're going to bellyache about your trades, bellyache about the puts too. If you don't have any puts then I'm sending Catherine over (and we know where you live) with the dreaded "Bag." Not sure if the hammers will make it past customs and excise... but we'll have to see. The guys that didn't move today all seem to just be sitting at a new support level while they wait for the next move up. I'd say "or down" but there are no "downs" in the list. That is another hint. Anyway, they all look to be in great shape and one of the things that I love about them is that their steps up are relatively small. I got out of LAMR today but will probably get back in tomorrow or Monday. It's steps are so big, that the losses when it's re-testing get overbearing (like my mother when I haven't called for a couple of days.) The only one I don't really like the look of is ROP. It seems to go up in a liitle step and then sit there for a month or two. $2.50 every couple of months seems way out of your league.
Have a look at NOV. It has no steps.
Diversify.
Or Catherine'll smack you.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:35:00 PM
Disclaimer,
Chris is a very sick little boy right now and anything he says should either be ignored completely or removed from the blog.
I am not overbearing.
EVER!!!
Chris's Mom.
Chris honey... call me.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:39:00 PM
Jeff,
I'm chiming in late because I was showing property until about 10 minutes to the close. Got here just in time to be stopped out on ELON. (At least I'm still in CROX which is still going strong).
Anyway, wanted to comment on your 'limitations' quote which really resonates with me today. I am interpreting the limitations to mean something different. Yes, I believe I can be a great trader BUT right now I am having problems due to my limitations of time and focus. I really believe that doing this part time while trying to keep another full time job is severely limiting.
I never was the mutual fund type and expect to always be trading but right now I'm feeling that my focus is distracted in all ways. When I'm trading, I neglect everything else. When I'm not trading and trying to do everything else, I'm distracted and thinking about trading. Final result is I am not doing anything to the best of my abilities right now. I really don't know how to fix this other than to stop trading which I won't do, or stop selling real estate which I can't do.
So yeah, I'm acknowledging my limitations but buying mutual funds is not the answer for this trader.
Posted by Doji Girl | 9/27/2007 02:43:00 PM
Oh by the way,
Almost every financial book I've read has said that if you want to underperform the market... buy mutual funds. You are way further ahead just buying a tracker stock.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:43:00 PM
Chris,
Go easy on the pseudafed!!! When you start channeling your mother, you know you have a problem.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 02:44:00 PM
Jeff, thanks for DRYS. I'm CHEEZEN really hard. Thanks!
In response to your quote, I may have taken it out of content but here are my thoughts:
I think my trading plan and intuition plays alot into investing. I have to be intuned with my emotions and know all the minnie me"s" within. I have to realize when The Greedy Green Monster shows up.
I also think is it saying no matter what your limits are be diversified in your trades... just don't trade stocks or just don't trade options.
OR
It just could be an advertisement to buy a mutual fund for all the traders who have lost a bunch of money.
Posted by JRene | 9/27/2007 02:47:00 PM
DG,
Right on!!! I have the perfect answer for you, as I'm in the same boat. I have 3 weeks off at the end of October/beginning of Nov, and I can't wait because I'll be able to trade like a full timer. FOR 3 WEEKS!!! We're planning on getting Catherine in full time in the new year and that is my suggestion to you.
Get your husband to become a full timer, and you can coach him. Eventually he will get up to speed (you have come a long way in a relatively short time.)
If you cannot afford to have him quit his job, consider renting a second husband. Although illegal in most states... if done quietly and for a short period of time you may be able to sneak him under the radar screen. Most feds are looking for far larger fish to fry.
Keep at it though. There are a relatively small number of people who have a real grasp of this whole trading thing and you are definatly one of them. Like me... you WILL do it. It's just a matter of time.
PS. Try waving that magic wand around a bit.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:52:00 PM
JEFF and OA FRIENDS
Since Liz is gone today I've been monitoring and reading and taking care of the kids.
After reading the lines about knowing your limitations I thought of something.
We're potty training our 2 year old an lets say it has it's ups and downs. Sometimes he does the right thing and we clap and cheer for him even though you can tell he really doesn't get what he did. It's a process sometime his aim is true other times,( more often then not he ends up peeing on himself. It's about time and repitition, I know that with time and repitition or success has come and will be even better in the future. However, every now and then we'll miss the pot ( and my wife will have to clean it, ;). Beside,God and our Family, trading is our life, there are no limiations just the ones we put in front of ourselves.
And I'm happy to say that me and my wife together have no limitations
Grant
Posted by liz & grant | 9/27/2007 02:57:00 PM
Sean
Too true.
With reference to your comments on trading I agree. It is so easy for me to get excited about trading and I have no doubt that I can be one of the 4 or 5 who make it. I was one of 22 who graduated in my Aviation and Flight Technology program out of 2000 who applied. The only reason I could do it was that I loved it. And I love trading even more.
I promise to leave Mom out of it from now on.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 02:59:00 PM
Grant,
Nice to hear from you.
I peed on myself today with LAMR. I have cleaned it up and will try again. Maybe tomorrow, maybe monday. I feel that I'm really, really close to being potty trained.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 03:01:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Brett | 9/27/2007 03:04:00 PM
Grant,
My wife did something amazing with our son when she was potty training him. She made a chart with days of the week across the top and times per day on the side. Each time he went on the potty, he got to put a sticker on the chart. He loved it and it really helped.
As for ELON, I'm not thrilled about the end-of-day action, but due to the trend, the incredible volume on the up-moves and the fact that it's still in a retest-support area, it's going to be innocent until proven guilty. Tomorrow ELON goes on trial.
Chris, you peed yourself on LAMR? I hope that means you added on the retest.
Raimo, I know you're out killing defenseless animals, but when you read this, thank you for MA this morning. Veddy nice, high five!
Have a great evening everyone!
Posted by Brett | 9/27/2007 03:07:00 PM
Sam,
About adding to GRMN. I did it too. I used to be like a deer caught in headlights when the market was going down. I did not have the courage to add to or start a position on a pullback. But I'm changing all that. I thought to add to GRMN but at 116.70, get in CROX at 61.80, and today add to BIIB at 66.45. I was slow think of it and didn't get in closer to support on the dips but I did it and will do better next time by planning ahead. Thanks to Jeff, Raimo and Brett for saying it enough times that it stuck.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 9/27/2007 03:13:00 PM
BCSI is at an interesting spot right now. I know not many here use moving averages but this stock seems to bounce off of it's 30 day ma. If everyone that is buying the stock thinks the moving average is important... then the moving average becomes important. BCSI could be ready to take off.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 03:16:00 PM
Chris,
Don't exclude your mother or bad things will happen to you!
You are right. The learning curve to be a pilot has to be as long or longer than that to become a successful trader. I feel the same for my profession. We can't expect to be successful at it without taking time and making mistakes while refining our new trade. Besides loving it, I try to keep in mind that the best thing about becoming proficient at this is the opportunity to pay it forward as Jeff has done for us. I would love to be able to teach my kids to be successful at this, or for that matter, all of my friends. Talk about a game changer. I know I have to walk first but the thought of passing this on to people that I care about is a motivator.
Just a tip. People frequently get sick after air travel because of tight quarters and recycled air. When nobody is looking while you are at cruising altitude, open the driver's side window and get some fresh air.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 03:18:00 PM
IBM getting ready to break out. Could do it tomorrow and, if you count the shadow, it's a $15 move.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 9/27/2007 03:21:00 PM
Thanks for the tip, Sean. Wish I'd thought of that. I always thought that being in an enclosed area with small bits of various virus's would be like getting a bunch of shots and keep my immune system on top of everything.
I guess if we can't expect to be perfect to start... that's why they call what you do a "practice" huh? Maybe I'll start my own practice. But in trading.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 03:24:00 PM
Brett,
We all learn from each other's mistakes so I wanted to share mine. When my first born was ready for potty training (male-which we know is harder) we had the great idea to give him one match box car for each time him peed and 2 for you know what. Well, he started drinking so much water and eating only all bran when it dawned on my wife and I that he is smarter than us. Well, about $750 later we wised up. For the next 3 kids (all girls) we realized that they worked as hard for stickers and a nice Little Mermaid weekly achievment chart on the fridge door. That was yet another learning curve that I had to endure. You are already a step ahead.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 03:27:00 PM
Chris,
I am glad they don't refer to your profession as a "practice". I think I would travel a lot less.
I do have this question however. In my graduating class, I knew a few graduates that should never treat animals. I am afraid about your reply, but did you have people in your graduating class that you would never fly with?....and if so, who do they fly for now and where and when!!!
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 03:31:00 PM
Kim,
I know it was one post and 50 million comments ago, but no worries. I appreciate the reminder getting out at my target is a good thing.
Everyone,
As to the closely related discussion about swing vs. trend, I took the adage of "letting winners run" very seriously as I got started and I would never ever want to exit a winner. Problem was, I also wasn't willing to let them pull back. I was trying to walk half-way in between swing and trend. Didn't work too well.
Currently, I am trading what I consider to be very short term with my small options account. And, in my larger IRA, I am attempting to really trade more intermediate term with stocks.
Shortening up the timeframe is making a big difference to me with the small account, especially during the choppy times. As I've said before, if I were trading more than one contract, I would most always sell half and let the other half run, but I don't have that option right now so I am taking profits more quickly and, as Jeff has said before -- when you take profits quicker you also have to cut losses that much shorter, so I'm trying to do that as well.
The way I am cutting losses shorter is by being very, very picky about how close to my support level I get in. I am not taking trades unless I get them very, very close, like almost to the penny or even on the other side of the support level. I am buying only on the pullbacks.
This has helped me a lot because I am able to let them have room to move without risking much. I miss a lot of trades, though, but I'm having to learn to be ok with that. For me, better to take fewer trades but hang with them.
I am working on different strategies to catch more of these trades. This week I've caught a few good ones and missed some great ones too (like CROX and SLB).
Posted by Tim | 9/27/2007 03:32:00 PM
Tim,
There were a couple in the class of 22 and one of them sells used cars now and the other one, no one has heard from.
Everyone else takes their drugs regularly.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 03:37:00 PM
Err, that's Sean, not Tim.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 9/27/2007 03:38:00 PM
Comforting Chris....very comforting.
Posted by Sean M. | 9/27/2007 03:39:00 PM
One more thing since it's been a while since I've posted much -- someone a while back mentioned that it only takes one great trade to give your account a boost. That is so true.
Since my account is small, it only takes one great swing move to really boost my account. Even though I exited GRMN at 120 and didn't "let it run", that move still took my account up 20%.
I used to trade too much and want to take every trade. Now I am relaxing more, realizing that every day pretty much something new hits an entry signal for me. If I miss one, there will be others.
This is tough because I barely missed DRYS, SLB and CROX and it's easy to get down about that, but with my small account, I can't risk chasing them, I have to wait for it and take it.
I realized that if I can just hit three more trades like GRMN before year's end (one per month) and break even on everything else, I would not only make back all losses for the year but take my account up 30% for the year. Not huge, but it wouldn't be bad for a first year of trading. When I think about it like that, it helps me to calm down and not feel like I have to chase every trade that comes by.
Posted by Tim | 9/27/2007 03:40:00 PM
Chris- RE: BCSI
I'm staring at a chart with 30d MA and BCSI is trading about 6.00 above its MA (at 76.50). Am I looking at the same thing? because lt looks to me that it's got a long ways to go before it touches the MA again.
Posted by Matt | 9/27/2007 03:53:00 PM
Grant,
Awesome response. That's the type of stuff I wanted to read today.
Posted by Option Addict | 9/27/2007 04:00:00 PM
You mean you didn't want to hear about Chris peeing on himself?
Posted by Jodi | 9/27/2007 04:05:00 PM
C2,
Thanks for the kind and encouraging words. Wish I also had 3 weeks to just trade.
Jodi - I think I prefer your other picture better.
Posted by Doji Girl | 9/27/2007 04:16:00 PM
CLEAN CUPS...
that's so cool doing that.
Posted by Mike | 9/27/2007 04:18:00 PM
Now you've got me laughing, Jodi! You hot blonde, you! :-)
Posted by Laney | 9/27/2007 04:18:00 PM
Jeff,
Thanks that is very true about the recession. I don't know why I necessarily worry or wonder what will happen when I watch the market pretty much all day everyday and technically should be able to react.
I guess sticking with relative strength and weakness individual stocks I shouldn't really care which way the market is going.
Thanks for the response and input.
I was really wanting a pull back in FCX today, haha.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 9/27/2007 04:45:00 PM
Well, of course. I thought that was a given.
Posted by Option Addict | 9/27/2007 04:45:00 PM
I was referring to Chris and his "Age of Incontinence."
Posted by Option Addict | 9/27/2007 04:47:00 PM
Jeff:
First, thanks for All!!
Reference the quote: Investing is for everyone-just like taking care of your health, kids, spouse, property, etc. Taking care of your own financial health is an individual responsibility-unfortunately, we’re (myself included, at times) are more concern about our rights. Like the right to have the government bail me out of my mistakes-fiscal or physical—We may not all have the same talent for investing, but we all have the same responsibility. I’ll confess that I floated for a few years with someone else “watching” my money—He “watched” most of it leave my account----. My mistake, my responsibility, My Bad!!!- Today is a new day.
I would change the quote to read: “Sometimes the best investment a person can make is to make an investment in themselves.” the rest will follow.
Jeff: Thanks for investing your time, knowledge and energy in us. You are appreciated.
Robert
Posted by BOBB | 9/27/2007 06:59:00 PM