Now if BCSI would quit playing around with $85 and move on through $87.50. And if ELON would put $30 behind it for good, all would be well in the world.

I also added to my GRMN position this morning.

I mentioned Monday that I thought I saw OI in a bull flag down to support @40.
I have the target from the flag somewhere around 46. I also have my target from the Asc. Tri. breakout between 45-46. Yet I saw someone, I believe it was Raimo say he had a potential $9 target?

Is that a S/R target from the gap at the start of May or is that something else (price pattern etc.)?

Jeff- I had bought some FLIR before your watchlist came out this week and then when you had it on there, I bought some more (all Nov 55's -too low?).

James H.

James,

Getting in OI today is in anticipation of a breakout that has not occurred. I took the trade as a support bounce at REE.

If OI breaks out over $42, then my target is a 7 pt move from the breakout. Add to that my getting in today at $40, that adds $2 to a $7 move...

So REE is $40ish, RTR is $49...but that is ASSUMING a breakout...

Marketcast's Trade of the Week K had a nice little retest bouncing back from an analyst downgrade. It's grrrreeat.

Question on how people use this blog do you go to the website or is there a way to view on myblog. If I use the website each time I post I need to re-enter my user name and pw, kind of a hassel. To update the content when using the website address I hit refresh and the latest entries are updated.

This is just lots of keystrokes.
I wonder if Jeff could just upgrade to streaming content, like Masters Talk.

How expensive could it be.....

Raimo,

Did you see the POTENTIAL resistance from mid-1998 on OI?

Krystal:

Part of the reason your calls are not up alot today (even though your positions are up) is the drop in the VIX.

Hey, anonymous,

Look at that! I hadn't even checked the VIX today. :)

Hey guys, might I ask:

How many positions do you all typically have going at one time before it becomes to much to manage?

Just curious...

Krystal,
I think managing positions is something you will have to figure out on your own, based upon your trading experience, your account size/money management rules, whether you have the ability to watch them all day, etc. Basically what it is you are comfortable with. That number will be different for everybody.

NILE is retesting the breakout area.... Looks like a pretty good REE.

Gotcha Raimo,

As far as the Triangle and Flag formations though, you see them about the same as I do? Or you see something different?

I see what you are saying about the breakout. Originally, I considered the breaking of $40 (from the Asc. Triangle) to be the breakout and what just occurred to be the retest (in the form of what looks to be a bull flag) but I like your target better anyway!

James H.

LisaG,

I agree, I bought more NILE earlier today also.

James H.

Raimo,
I get to do a little baby sitting now and again. How much pressure can you use on the little tyke?

also in regards to: "Hey, if the fantasy trading comes to fruition, i want to be on the team with all the lady's...that would include Arty..right??"

Yes that includes me.

Anybody ever find cool trades by mistake? Look at SLM.

Cheers,
C4

Hey LisaG,

I know that trading is a very personal thing for everyone; it varies based on personality, education, experience, etc.

I was just curious, that's all. :)

I, too, have my eye on NILE. Looks like a picture perfect retest, doesn't it!?!?!

Krystal

Brett, Ramio,

Did I read correctly that you were talking about adding to your positions in VRTX?

If so when you added to the position do you then move the stop up on both the previous position and the current newly added position to the 38 area?

Anu

James H,
Those options are expensive! I did a spread on it instead!

Krystal,
I think you will get responses from 2 positions to 30! I normally don't have more than 4 at one time. But that is because I am trading small accounts. I have the ability to watch the market all day (most days), but money management rules normally prevent me from having more than that.

LisaG,

I bought Nov 105's. Expensive yes, but its half of the move I have my target set at, so hopefully it will pay off. I bought both times close to support, so at least I can get out without too much of a loss if things go awry.

James H.

On Nile,
I was all for it a while back but isn't the Implied Volatility a little high now? Am am I crazy?

Cheers,
C4

LisaG,

You know, I tend to find that about 4 or 5 positions is good for me, too, but sometimes I have a few more. Like, I'm probably going to exit GRMN in a few days here, so, in my mind, I don't have to "worry" about that one for much longer. So I added another position today.

Krystal

C4,
Yes, IV is high that is why I did the spread instead. I wasn't willing to pay that premium in the event volatility tanks on it. In order to offset that risk somewhat, you have to go further ITM which I could not afford to do!

I have been trying to play around with the theoretical pricing on TOS where you can estimate price moves, time frames, and changes in IV but haven't been doing it long enough to know whether it is working for me or not. And with IV, it's an even bigger guess (for me) as to what it will do.

BIIB sitting at 5 yr support... IV is high, so maybe a spread?

ZUMZ, nice REE for a bounce play.

Dipping into AZO today as i missed it yesterday... any other bearish ideas?

-Kevin

Yea, it is somewhat discouraging seeing some profits evaporate, What are you OA's doing with GRMN, I have read some are adding to positions, what month options are you holding? It seems like many had targets of 120 and that was mine, however I didn't want to break my rules of trading in the first hour again.

So, those adding to GRMN, what is your trigger? It looks like it turned down from upper channel resistance with the lower support being close to 110, so isn't adding right here somewhat risky?

AAPL I expected to pull back, i'll add to that at about 150 because ultimately that is going higher into earnings IMO.

if anyone can offer a rookie further insight into their GRMN adding I would appreciate it. :-)

thanks

Ben

Ben,

I've been wondering about the same thing...people adding to their GRMN positions...

Krystal

Ben,

I have a VERY simple trading style, but I see GRMN as a stock
that just moved 105 to 120 and is
taking a breather, digesting gains,
experiencing profit taking - whatever you like to call it.
So I still like it, just like GOOG, I'm still in. I wait till the stock is actually moving against me to get out.
I've learned the hard way with LVS POT and DE, ouch! Left thousands on the table. But I'm okay with giving up SOME gains while a stock consolidates. But that's just me and I certainly understand the value of grabbing profits while they are there! Beth Ann

Ben,

It's only risky if you don't know what you're doing.

Is anyone else watching SPW break out? Target $100.

I meant $105 target.

Holy BSC! Appears as though some talk of selling a piece of the firm are going on. To Warren Buffet none the less...

Brett,
No, but I am now thanks.

Brett, I have SPW on a list along with MTW and BUCY. I added to a lot today of positions today and am indecisive on those names. I feel like I am getting too long here. But I really like the price action on the S&P.

Jamie

Ben,
I think it's just different trading styles. Are you long-term or short-term, what's your target, are you trading stock or options, what are your exit rules.
Some of us only have one contract on the table and we met our target, so we took profits. Others had different targets.
Some of us are new traders, some are experienced. Hope that helps a little.

Michelle

Anyone know what time the market closes?

In a few minutes.


M

I fell back to an old habit here of trading a stock on a Pont and Figure chart. Bought AGN. I love the set-up on the P&F chart. On the candles I see a Sym Triangle with a 9 point price target.

Not a lot of volume though and the a P&F chart does not take that into account. But I'm in with with I think are cheap options...Jan 75's at 3.40

Jamie

I found this one too late for an immediate recommendation as the REE as pretty much passed for a short time frame trade but there are more approaching. This stock is only going down so if you need something bearish. Wait for it....

It's breaking down through long term 3-4 year support lines. Check the 5 year weekly chart and remember to turn LOG scale off.

WHR

Thanks Beth Ann that explanation helps.

Brett-I was hoping for a little more constructive input from someone like yourself with more experience. That's why I asked, I readily admit not necessarily knowing which is why I asked. Was my assessment way off though?

I was trying to look at it from a risk standpoint and if I am trying to use technicals it seems like a riskier entry point. I totally agree with the idea of it being profit taking and it just taking a breather, but I figured I should try and be consistent.

Michelle-I think you could be right, however even if it is stock vs. options unless you are on a couple year time frame it still would be more profitable to use technicals to add to a stock position I think.

I am more short term(in comparison), basically as long as seems reasonable for a break out to reach its target and buying options. If it seems like it will only take 2 months i'll buy 2 months out options, basically whatever seems reasonable from what the chart shows and what sentiment seems like.

I am a new trader and have definitely benefited from this blog and appreciate the responses to help me learn. I just want to get feedback from those with more experience and what they have been successful doing and what they see on the chart.

maybe none of this matters and it all comes down to being consistent according to your own rules, but IMO there will be more and less successful rules and strategies I'd like to learn from.

thanks everyone.

Ben

Brett,

Have been watching it all day. Would you give us your analysis of it? I see sym. triangle broke but what of the increase volume on the recent down days? Weaker volume on the bull days.
I makes $3.00 pretty regular in the last 3 months. Does this enter your equation?
I felt if the bulls could not push it over the resistance from June the bears may win tomorrow.
Am I on track here or over complicating this one?

Sorry to b late to the blog here...


Krystal..yes, we are approaching where OI was ten years ago. I trade the current trend, and look for low risk entries, which I took on OI. If OI breaks out, great, if it turns and goes south, I;ll be out with little or no loss..

Ben,

My vagueness was intentional. I try to throw trades out there, but sometimes I want everyone to plan their own for themselves. I added to VRTX today, but I also sold my entire position today too. Sometimes you see something later in the day you don't like and you protect capital.

As for SPW, I love the trade, so I took it. Maybe it's not a 'clear' breakout, but i love the pattern, the target and the volume. I've seen many times a breakout that's iffy like this one and it explodes higher at the open the next day. That comes from experience. This trade could very well fail tomorrow, but again, risk management is up to the individual.

As for GRMN, I can't fault anyone for taking profits yesterday, but my target is $130, and judging by the blog consensus, at least $125. Nowhere in my analysis did I see $120 as an exit. We waited and waited for this move. We talked about it ad nauseum. We were patient, and we got exactly what we expected. I never expected $130 to be hit in 3 days' time. So I saw a pullback today and added the next month (November), so that when i close my Octobers at $125-$130, I can keep some for a little while longer in case the stock runs and runs (or announces a 3-1 split).

I only throw a fraction of my trades out there to the blog, and I do that because I know that many here aren't sitting in front of a pair of monitors all day. I don't, however, want anyone to jump on a trade just because I like it. If I can alert you to a setup that you might not have had time to find yourself, then I've achieved my goal. I'm an aggressive trader and I take a lot more trades than most. Therefore, to take a trade or two of mine might cost you money if you're not capturing the entire body of work.

Does this help? Ben, I didn't mean to come off rude if I did. I just wanted to point out that if you like the trade take it. If you don't, pass. You will find that, though you will often be boosted by the confirmation of someone else's eyes, your best trades (and most satisfying) will be the ones you open and close based on your own education, your own tools and your own instincts.

Jeff,

I have been "lurking" here for the last several days and was wondering how your site is structured. I notice that few people address you on this blog. Do you have people working for you to keep up with the traffic?

BTW, I follow many financial blogs and none of them get the type of traffic or responses that you generate here. It is amazing. Keep up the good work.

Jacob

Ben-
In my opinion adding to your position is something that takes a lot of practice-it's an artform. At the beginning I think it's important to define and re-define your rules and strategies. Not that you don't want to know how to do it, but that's not something you should focus on at the moment if you're a beginning trader. I think that's what Brett was trying to get across though maybe not in the way you would have liked to have heard him say it. We all have a tendency to get ahead of ourselves and trading is no exception. If you're a beginner "plan the trade and trade the plan". Yes, it's said ad naseum but it's true. Once you become a better trader you'll feel more comfortable branching out into adding to your positions. You'll be once again defining and re-defining your trading rules, strategies and style.

liz

P.S. Also, you mentioned that if you believe a stock will take 2 months to move you buy 2 months worth of time. Buy more time. If you think the stock is going to take 2 months, buy 3.

Raimo-
Liked the looks of OI. I love it when there are multiple support lines. I love the bounces upward on onward.

liz

Jeff-
The watchlist was amazing and you just keep throwing out more goodies. Thanks for that!

liz

what would be a good entry point for bidu?

thank you

Mimosa

Mahmood,

Hy Vee at 132nd and Dodge has Java Monster on sale for $2.00/can.

Race you there.

Brett,

I got some Java Monster from 156 and maple yesterday (not on sale though). Had one last night and had a very productive night (was up till midnight updating charts etc :-) )

Love it.

I am closer to HyVee then you are :-0

When I add to a postion, I personally treat it as a new trade..that being said..one must still consider proper position size, risk and reward when doing so.

Liz,

I love the bounces upward and onward too...

Brett-
You get Java Monster for $2? It's almost $3 here.

liz

Thanks Brett, yes that is very helpful.

I understand you were intentionally vague but in this case I wanted feedback from you. :-)

One of the reasons I chose 120 is because I did not want to get greedy, that is a 15 dollar move with 10 dollars of intrinsic value, I guess the other reason is I am currently holding October options I bought last month, if I had november I would probably have a 125-130 target. So my concern is time not necessarily price movement, which I guess raises a whole new question of when to roll into next month and when you do do you pick the previous strike price, haha.

maybe I struggle with going with what is "instinct" and just going with purely what a chart says, like today I had the "feeling" the pops from premarket would not hold since they had such large runs and were due to retreat some, that may have been right this time but who knows about the next time, i had the same thought on GS, which i sold and then wasn't paying attention when the pullback happened then didnt get back ina nd left quite a bit on the table. I may be able to be slightly more profitable trying to time these pull backs and such but when I was successful before I would just choose a target and time frame and stick with it not trying to exit unless necessary.

I am basically trying to re-evaluate my whole trading strategy so I am reading a lot and asking those like yourselves what has worked. I was previously taking too much risk and gave up a 100% gain, due to breaking all rules I had set on a single trade.

However, I am quick to change, since i kind of got in at a "good" time i was somewhat given inflated success even though most my assessment was correct I was trading a single stock(AAPL) because it seemed like the easy place to make money.

In terms of adding to positions, I used to add when a stock declined, at the time I didn't know much about TA, if I did maybe I could have done even better and kept the money. I was subscribing to the idea that if I just got some options for 3.00 on a good stock, getting more for 2.00 was even better because i still thought it would come back and would take half the movement to be back even.

Now, I am all about probabiity and risk, I only have 20% of my portfolio at work, which may be too little now but I am doing much smaller position sizes and taking less risk and I am seeing it can still provide great gains with little risk and I have Jeff and all of you to thank for that.

Sorry about the long ass post, but I just wanted to thank everyone for helping my progression happen much faster and changing my perspective to realize you can get large returns without large risk when done correctly. :-)

Thanks all!

Ben

Hey Phanotm Poet what's your story
We are waiting for your words of glory
The blogs amassed a very strong following
But we need some humor to keep it blogging
We have Tim and Liz and Arty and Sean
Can you get us something by dawn
Kim you know of late's been shady
I think it's becuase of some guy Tom Brady
Brett is confused with an identity issue
From Erin to Phoenix his pic is askew
Mahmood Mimosa Jacob and Ben
How does the dollar fair against the Yen
Another addict who I like as a roady
I am on her team, yup it's Jodi
So get with the program we need some funny
Cause ICE you see has taken my money!

Hahaha, thanks Bob. I've always wanted to be in a peom!

Whoops, I meant Thanks Raimo! hahaha

Jacob,

No, I don't have anyone on the payroll. It's a solo effort, although it is getting to the point where I feel I should hire on help:)

The structure here is such that I blog daily about what I am trading and my opinions or viewpoints on the market. The comments that are left here make this somewhat of an online chat, where people talk to one another about what they are trading, or offer their opinions/advice to others. A lot of questions are generated to specific people because of their tenure here on the blog or strategies they discuss in their comments. Quite a community I have going here, huh? Thanks to all the readers for their contributions!

Well, Jodi,

consider yourself poemed....

Haha, nice Raimo.

They have Monster Java at Hy-vee? Hmm, we have those in Rochester, I may have to go try these next time I am down there.

Ben

Call me Bob
Call me Raimo
but an option addict
is my namo
Your name in a poem you thought was nice
Okay Jodi, here it is twice..

Jeff or anyone who wants to comment,
I am trying to learn from my mistakes. Here's the trade: VMI.

I bought some stock on 9/14 where I saw it at diaganol support.
Then I added to the position on 9/21 when I saw some horizontal support around 91ish. I set my stop around 87ish to give it some room. Today, it zoomed down and stopped me out. I notice Jeff mentioned it as a good dip today.
What should I have done differently?

Michelle

hahaha, I'm the most lucky girl.....ever ;)

Raimo, you on a roll

Michelle,

Did you place your stop below support?

Jeff,
I saw diaganol support at 84.5, but I saw some short-term support around 90. So by having my stop at 87, I thought I was giving it some room. I also thought it would protect my entry around 86ish and keep it to a small loss for my add-to point around 91ish. I think it was actually 92. Anyway, that was what my plan was.
What am I missing?

Was the 90ish horizontal support not stable enough and I shouldn't have added at that point?

That is what I think I did wrong.

Michelle

Michelle-
I see horizontal support/resistance around 86.40. If I were to set a mechanical stop it would be between 1 to 3% below support depending on what kind of a trade I was playing here... Swing or trend.

I don't use mechanical stops but I still use the same principles when applying a mental stop.

liz

Jeff-

**** I left you a present in your marketcast e-mail.

Kim

Michelle..

Your entry on 9/14 was right at Diag trendline support. Exend that line. That is support, and along that line a good entry as long as the trend continues. Your entry on 9/21 however, was nearly $7 away from support...

Look at it this way Michelle..

The diag trendline is solid, established support. Does that exist at $91?

Liz,
Yeah, I have to set stops because I'm away from the computer a lot these days. It was supposed to be a trend trade. It was stock, and then I added. I am thinking that I probably added at the wrong point and the horizontal wasn't enough touch points to call it support. Is that right?

Michelle

Thanks, Jeff, Liz and Raimo.
That's what I thought I did wrong.
The only way I can learn is by evaluating these trades that I mess up and not doing it again.

That helps a bunch.

Michelle

Michelle,

I am not seeing any support at 90. I see an old high there, but the stock has never used this level as support before. The diagonal trendline has been pretty easy to map here, and it still resides above this. In my opinion, the only difference between our opinions is how you are seeing support/resistance.

Kim,

Are you referring to the anonymous e-mail calling me a f*cker? That was you???

Thanks, Jeff.
That is what I thought. The confirmation helps. Still in the learning process.

Your price patterns class was great yesterday.

Okay. Gonna go grab a beer and Mexican food.

Thanks again, all.

Michelle

Hey Ben,

Thanks for putting your decision making process on GRMN out there. I think it is valuable to see how others are deciding on their entries and exits. I am like you in that I am trading only 20% of my capital and therefore, trading a very small account as I am learning.

I also wanted to say thanks to everyone for letting me put my GRMN exit decision out there and get some feedback. I know there was a comment earlier about moving on and just "planning the trade and trading the plan." I certainly agree with that approach, but the problem is, I am still experimenting with different strategies and plans. I did execute my plan but I wanted to share it and see if there was something else to consider.

My feelings aren't hurt or anything, just saying that one of the things I value most about this community is hearing how each person approaches things like entries and exits. It has truly helped me.

Raimo,

Another good one. You are quite prolific of late. Give me a minute or two to respond, will ya?

PP

Phantom friend I am in the zone
Helping traders with skills to hone
Baseballs over and I've time to kill
So I can respond almost at will
Tom brady you know has caused a stir
Especially for Kim who has hutspa
Michelle is learning and Tim is cool
And other cool traders in Jeffs pool
Get me some funny and get it quick
Before I announce my next stock pick
You have until sunrise thats my game
And for a THIRD time here is Jodi's name

Sorry Raimo, I just got home
read 300 posts, then DAMN, your poem,

Yes, count me in for the fantasy pursuit
Do I need a macho commando suit??

and a gun to scare away the bears
but, I won't, like you, braid my back hairs,

Brett is already fantasy trading
He thinks he's Erin, his wife's makeup he's raiding,

Let's help Michelle, she is confused about support
and she thinks Tom Brady is good at his sport,

Mahmood is now turned on to the Java
Let's hope he doesn't pop his Vena Cava,

No one but Jeff can seem to spell diagonal
this makes our old teachers become agonal,

Kristal is not sure how many trades she should take
5-10 is managable, but 50 is a mistake (note: unless your Jeff),

Then there's C4 who used to be Arty
is he also formerly the one man party?,

and steven is concerned about baby diapers
but he befriends Raimo, our resident sniper!,

how, may I ask, do C2 and C4 compare
is it because C4 has double that of C2's hair?,

and then Amber has the occasional post
about "Afternoon Delight" she did boast,

my point, if I have one, is this is a great blog
But if I get picked last for Fantasy Trading that is really going to piss me off because I am really too old to experience the kind of pain and emotional stunting that Raimo had to deal with all through grades 1-12!! (Note: didn't like any words that rhymed with blog).

Signed,

The Phantom!

Phantom Poet so you did say
300 posts all in one day

A lot to read but due not slack
I shaved the hair off of my back

Commando suit you do not need
But thong in your crack ugly indeed

Amber likes her midday pleasure
Here ya go Jodi a fourth to treasure

Phantom Poet you insult my schooling
But you, past 9th, who you fooling?

Raimo, I am getting poem-ed to death,
shouldn't you lay off the crystal meth?

PP

Raimo, you are on a roll for sure! I have a challenge for you find something that rhymes with Bob and works in your theme.

Michelle, Tim and others I too want to say thanks for putting your trades up so that we can all learn from them. I feel I have no business commenting really but to speak up for staying with your rules. Michelle, it was nice to see what you did and I liked your entry (the first one). I do not add to trades yet, much. I have been stopped out over and over until I started using the between 3% below/above support/resistance and 2xATR. Yes, this spread sometimes keeps me out of big movers but beginners have to start somewhere and stops killed my account.

Jeff, you do have an amazing community here!

Phantom Poet you chose to play
Pull up the chart, TRA...

Raimo and PP,
Too funny.

Bob,
Yeah, I am still learning how to define support to add to trades. I think I get "add" happy and just want to find a place to add to a winning position. That's what I did on this trade and have done it before.

Okay. PP, I guess I am going to have to get my dictionary out. I struggle with spelling diaganol.

Thanks for the laugh. I'm feeling better now, (or maybe it was the beer.)

Nothing like going to pick up food to go and slugging down some beers with three kids under the age of 5 in tow.

Michelle

Mahmood,

You couldn't possibly be closer to HyVee than me. I'm about a 7 iron away. Anyway, it's the HyVee gas that has the $2 price. I just cleaned em out again.

And Jeff...

WE DID IT!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070926/apfn_hansen_natural_mover.html?.v=1

Brett..thanks for the great idea (adding to GRMN with nov contracts) i was wondering/thinking about what to do when the time comes....thanks for posting the idea...

oh, i am going to embarrass myself, but what is hyvee?? is it like the 7-11??

Raimo, I pulled up TRA
that option, I may want to play,

I submit to you HTLD
Is it a DT near REE?

Brett,

I got there before you but I was nice enough to leave some for you. Good cath for the price :-)

I am now getting ready for MasterTalk while sipping mean bean

Jeff,
which session are you doing tonight.

In regards to the Java Monster, Mean Bean is the only flavor that I did not like! I thought it had a really bad after taste, unless I got a bad can? I'm working on trying to obtain it by the case from somebody that distributes that kind of stuff--energy drinks, protein shakes, etc. The only place I have seen it in the Pittsburgh area so far is Sheetz.

Lisa,

I hated the Mean Bean, as well. For me, it's a toss-up between the Loca Moca and the Big Black.

Guys,

I am calling on this group to help me with my current trading problem. Today as I saw PCP, TSL, DRYS, GRMN and NVDA turing down I closed the position and bailed with good profits (in most cases upto 100%). I have not been able to figure out how to handle the retest of support. My question to this group is when you guys were going through this during your learning phase how did you build the nerve to handle the retests. SO far it seems like I can only do swing trades as I cannot stomach the trend trade.

it seems like I have figured out the entries and I have drawn the horizontal and diagonal support lines but i find my self panicing as after gainig 100% watching the see the trade go back down to 50% before it will move again.

there might not be a clear answer other then I just have to find a way to trust the patterns and projected target to continue.

Sorry guys if this does not make sense as to the way I describing it. Any insight, guidance suggestions would be much appreciated.

Brett,
That's good to know. I actually considered trying another can of it just to make sure, since the other two flavors I really liked. Now I know I don't need to waste the money. I poured the whole thing out the first time.

Mahmood-
If you can only handle swing trading then just do swing trading. Not everybody can trade the same way. Not everybody should trade the same way. This is what makes trading fun. We don't all trade the same way. We all have different levels of risk tolerance. Trade the way that works for you and when you do, you will become successful at it--- in your OWN way.

I hope this helps.

liz

Mahmood,
I am learning this, too. When I first began trading I lost a lot of money quickly because I would get out of trades on a normal pullback or breather only to have the stock continue its trend. I am up over 150% on GRMN and I was really bummed when I saw it was down today. So I looked at the chart again, remembered the compelling reason for getting into the trade and checked my notes. Today was just a "breather" I decided and opted to stay in the trade.

Liz has some given some sage advice. I don't think that you were wrong but rather you are honing your trading style.

Also, you might want to lay off the Java. It does things to people. :-)


PP- I know how to spell diagonal and lots of things rhyme with "Laney." What makes Jodi so special? It's because she's a hot blonde, isn't it? :-)

Hot blonds always seem to get first dibs!!! (we love you Jodi!)

liz

thanks Liz and Laney,

This is why I love this blog. Great support group here. I like the idea of reading the entry notes when I an panicing to get me back in sync with what the orignal plan was.

I will work on this but do it like Liz is saying, I will continue the swing trading for most of my trades but will take one or 2 trades where my plan would be to stay with the trend and grow the patience that I need to trade the trend.

Thanks for your help

Mahmood,
Have you read Trading in the Zone yet? If not, I would recommend it, as I'm sure many others on the blog would as well. I read it about a year ago and it didn't sink in at all. I am re-reading it right now and getting so much more out of it this time. It really helps with the mental aspect and the thought process needed to be a consistent trader.

Raimo & PP,
I know I missed a whole day on the blog but...have you guys forgotten me already? All this poetry slammin' back and forth and I was not even in one of them!! Should I be insulted?

Mahmood-
I concur with LisaG. One of my favorite reads in regards to trading... "Trading in the Zone".

liz

Jeff-
Me? Do that? Not even close.
Although based on the comments tonight you might want to switch out the Mean Bean for the Loca Mocha in what I sent to you. I won't be offended.

Tim-
It was me that posted about trading the plan you put in place on GRMN. My point was not to offend but to push you to stick to you guns with what you saw on the chart. Brett does not see where I got $120 from on the chart and that's just fine with me. I agree with getting other opinions. I'm all for that. But only if you aren't taking his opinions (or mine or anyone's) because you don't trust your own. Trust yourself! It sounded to me like you had a good plan of action.

I can't believe I'm talking about GRMN again.

Raimo....tell me to stop.

Kim

Doji Girl-
Bop them on the head with your wand like the good fairy in little bunny foo foo and turn them into goons.

That'll show 'em.

liz

I can't remember who asked about how many trades to handle at one time...here's my take...
I decide how much of my portfolio is going to be at risk at one time. 10% or 20% or 50%...
As soon as a trade is profitable, I am not at risk like I was when I took the initial trade. Therefore, I add another position. I too am working with a small account, but I keep track of how much I have at risk. If I am in 4 trades and they are profitable, then I consider myself free to move on to more trades. For example, I am in six different trades. Four are profitable. Two I just entered yesterday and today, and they are not profitable yet. Currently, I only have 6% at risk, so I will now build my portfolio back up to the 10% or 20% or 50% mentioned above. How much you have at risk is up to you and should be decided before trading.
I hope this helps...it is a little confusing to understand, but this approach has kept me rotating in and out of the market consistently.
Great blog today! Thanks for the poems...always a good laugh.

Mahmood-
Some of my plays are swings and some are trends. However, I have each trade defined as one or the other prior to pushing the "send" button. I agree with Laney that some people are true swingers and can't trend. When I went to the 3 day live there was an instructor that only swing trades. He fully admits he cannot trend trade. This may be you.

My question to you would be this. Are you afraid to let the trade fail? Can you be up 100% in the trade at one point and still have it turn out to be a failed trade in the end?

For example. I bought WNR on 9/20 as a breakdown. I have a target to sell at $40 in 15 days based on my analysis. In 4 trading days I'm up over 150% in the trade. It has moved down so drastically so quickly that I fully expect it to have a strong up day somewhere here in the next couple of days. But it is all still within the context of the downtrend.

My points:
1. Take the emotion out of it. Don't base your decisions upon looking at your brokerage account. I had no idea that I was up 150% in WNR until I had to pick a trade to talk to you about. I see the chart, I see WNR is still a correct trade and I move on.
2. I'm not picking on you. These are just lessons other people smarter than me have pounded in my head that I'm trying to pay forward.



Kim

Kim,
Those were very good points. I will be the first to admit that I still find myself looking at unrealized gains... But you are right, in order to truly begin to take the emotion out of it, you really can't do that. You need to focus on the chart, and whether or not the trade is working per your plan. I need to stop looking at my account details asap.

Thanks.

Great response everyone.

LisaG I had read Trading in the Zone about a year ago and I got a lot out of it then, But you are correct it is time I read it again.

Kim, thanks for the input. I agree that looking at the account total are not good. I somehow need to find the discipline to not look at the monitor tab of the TOS software and just stay in the prophet or TOS chart tab. I will also work on that.

But since swing traging is working I will stick to that for most of my trades and then try one or 2 trades to see if i can stomach the trend's up and down days.

As I saw GRMN come down today I also saw MACD rolling, bas on that my thoughts were that it might make a flag or at least go sideways and as the MACD turns up again I will take a new trade at support bounce. Now I might not get the option if it just move up stronglt again tomorrow. but such are the things.

Thanks again everyone for your feddback and support. I know some other folks here are struggling with this also and hopefully this will help us all.

Thanks

I have to say
I must admit
This Monster Java's
quite the hit

Poor Dan he drank
It made him loopy
As for me
I'm no longer droopy

Now GRMN's on my list to pass
For other stocks just may surpass

I may be wrong
I may be right
It's hard to say
After tonight

For Jeff has left us missing him
To Alan we had to listen in
Tonight on Mastertalk you see
There was no Yoda to emcee

So here I sit
Now broken hearted
Came to s--t
and only f--ted (sorry, my mother-in-law was talking to me on this one, it was one of her favorites)

So now you have it
I've put to task
my poetic ability
Or lack of class

Goodnight all...Kim

Kim, wasn't it you that didn't want to talk about GRMN anymore? Notice I did not bring it up. Wow, your Mother-in-law's lines were some of the first "rythme" I ever read on a men's room wall. Many many years ago - yes it was high school.

Here is a question Mahmood, what do you do when you are a trend trader and your wife is swing?

WARNING: LONG POST

Mahmood-
You got me thinking about how I've changed as a trader-or I should say my trading style. In the beginning I had the MACD and the Stochastic up and it seemed like I had 20 different moving averages all over my chart. I use to stress every time I saw the MACD or Sto moving in a way I thought wasn't beneficial to my trade. (Besides all the first time trader mistakes I continually made. And I'm STILL learning!!!!)

I realized that I like only a few things on my chart. Every once in awhile I will look at other oscillators but for the most part I keep it pretty simple. I have my stock up with a 10 Day and 30 Day moving average which I barely use but sometimes I find them useful. I have volume and Average Implied Volatility and that's it.

I mark up my chart with support/resistance lines and price targets and time alloted and nothing more. For me, simple works better. For me, it takes less guess work and therefore less emotion is involved. For me, it was simplifying that has helped me become a better trader (so far).

And as a trader I have to say that I probably veer to swinging. Though, there are a few trades that I trend trade and I've made amazing profits from like POT and GRMN. But I approach each trade differently and that's why I mark up my charts. Sometimes while chaos is flying throughout the day (like my children throwing ketchup on the cream colored carpet in our apartment) I have everything I need on my chart in case I have momentary brain loss. Even if I have to leave, my husband can look at my chart and know what I'm trying to accomplish. That and I have about a million alerts set.

But I'm still refining and I know that as I become more comfortable I'll be able to do more with my trading. I'll become more rounded as a trader. I still feel pretty 2D. I know I'm not very good at adding to my positions yet so I only add to a few of them. I don't think about looking at a 10 Day Chart like Brett. I know at this moment I'm not a very good spread trader at all but I'm learning. And there's still yet a million more things I need to learn and read. But I do know that I'm getting better and I actually liked it when the market was going crazy. I made really good money during that time (and I was doing directional trading...). I was in the zone. I'd like to get back there again and become more rounded.

I'm just thankful that I found Jeff's blog and this community of bloggers because I really wouldn't be where I am now if it wasn't for the information and help that I've gleaned from here. IT has been great but this has been the glue that has helped me put it all into practice.

Okay, I've taken up enough blog space for today.


liz

LONG: AMZN, BCSI, CROX, ELON, GRMN, NVDA, DRYS, OI & SLB
SHORT: (way too short of a list) AZO, PXP, NTAP

Logan,
I probably won't be able to make the Advanced Technicals workshop in Seattle this go round.

Bob, generally when my wife is swinging I have to duck or I would be knocked out of my chair. :-)

She is the emotionally in control trader this household.

I have seen some good advice today. My problem is I have taken everything IT has to offer and more and now have so much education and I get analysis Paralysis some time and when the answer should be simple i over complicate things.

MACD's STO's divergences, MA etc etc are all adding to the confusion for me.

May be I need to pull back on number trades I have and concentrate on doing it the right way and then increase the number of trades.

Thanks everyone you mentoring.

OA rock!!!

Kim,
Welcome to the poem-off.

Laney and DG, your time will come. I wasn't around for much of today so I couldn't incorporate the whole group. Raimo was so prolific that I felt I could not compete without taking some of the drugs that he was on. If Jodi is a hot blonde, then your beef is with Raimo....Just remember he was influenced by the mind altering drugs that he was experimenting with. Those drugs and a 50 caliber rifle and some army fatigues spell trouble. I thought I saw Raimo at Columbia University during Ahmadinejad's speach but that turned out to be some other rattlesnake killing mid-westerner.
Its your turn Raimo. I'm tired!!

PP

MLM
Bearish wedge continuation pattern confirmed on descent volume.

...not to mention "decent" volume...and Rorschach-like interpretive pattern....

Who like STRA?
I do, I do.

-Hunter

I haven't read this much poetry...well...since never. Funny stuff.

Ben, that was a great post by Brett. I have taken trades from others ideas on the blog. But as I look back on my journal I've found the ones I am most profitable on are the ones where I came up with the analysis.

Some stocks I don't know what it is but I can't make money in. Others it's like your making the market in the stock yourself. I threw out GNK with some anaylysis. It was like I was in the zone with that stock and just killed it. Very satisfying.
Thanks for everyones help.

Jamie

It's been a long while since I posted but the ACM move today looks like something to share. Enjoy.

Danny K

Bob (and Pam)-
You caught me. No more. I can only bite my tongue for so long. Personality flaw.

Kim

Kim,
I loved your post to Mahmood about taking the emotion out of it and not looking at my account balance. That has been the hardest part for me, hands down.

The other day when we were talking about trading one contract and having small accounts, I was encuraged and it got me to thinking. One of the main reasons that I am moved by fear is because of my small account and my fear of it diminishing or going away all together.

I have reacted out of fear and let losers go in "hopes" that they would turn around and have gotten out of winners early because I am up $80 and don't want to lose it but leave hundreds or thousands of unrealized gains on the table. Thankfully, I don't do this as much anymore or to the degree that I first did.

Fear is a powerful emotion and learning to control it is key.

Lisa G, I am getting that book today.

Gah! "Encouraged."

Thanks for insight into ACM, I agree looks ready for a good move. Thanks

JC

Outta control are these here posts
Who is the one that posts the mosts?

Pretty soon I’ll go on a rage
And get my guns out of my cage

U of C I was not there
They did not allow backs of hair

The Phantom Poet is out of verse
He is writing normal and lost his purse

I’ve been challenged by another Bob
Finding words to rhyme that is my job
Part of no mob and not a slob or snob
The Phantom Poet plays with his thingamabob
For lunch today a shish kebob
I hear Jodi’ a blond and a real heart throb

HTLD is at support
Sitting at REE I would report
But going long is counter trend
This stock may stick you in the end
So trade with caution if you take this down
Starting tomorrow I’ll be out of town

If you want a stock in the right direction
INTN had an erection

But another pick is in reverse
Head and shoulders of inverse

Here’s a stock that’s made a run
SCON it has been fun

PH a trade I hade to take
How much money will I make

That other stock that I have spoke
Mining gold it is no joke

New bloggers I see have joined this group
And Kim wrote a poem when she sat to poop
Kim has poemed a work of art
Too bad it made her rear end fart

Liz and Laney James and Brian
If I sold GRMN then I’d be lying

Lisa G and now Krystal too
And of course we have Anu

A hot Blonde I see they say of Jodi
But how can I forget my dear ole Doji??

Forgotten not the DG witch
Guess in my brain I had a glitch

We are here to trade and learn
Good stock picks we always yearn

My lastest find I will not disclose
Hints you’ll find are in this prose

If the pattern confirms it is a buy
It’s ticker symbols rhymes with goodbye…..

HAHAHA, good stuff Raimo!

JC

The 'Post a Comment' would not load for me to post at all yesterday or I might have been named in one of the great Raimo or PP poems. Darn.

Heads up... Mike Koval talked about a bearish divergence on Dow and Nasdaq charts with price way above 30 dma and MACD and STO starting to roll over. He says tighten stops or sell some positions in anticipation of a pullback in the next few days.

--Patti

Good one Raimo.

Patti, I had the same problem posting comments all day yesterday until last night. We might be overloading the blogging system (I don't think so)

Laney, I agree. The post from Kim was spot on. my default screen i watch (from the corner of my eye at work) is the monitor tab of TOS platform.

I will change that from today. I wlll concentrate on charts much more now. And I will reread trading in the zone.

I commit to this group that I will be a better trader and report back my progress on a monthly basis.

Thanks for all the support and entertainment that you guys provide all day. like jacob was saying yesterday, there is nothing else like this out there.

MA.......

Raimo,
The trade you are talking about, is it bearish or bullish?

You don't mention the head and shoulders ticker symbol, so I thought it would be bearish.

The bullish ones that might rhyme with "good-bye" might be VMI, OI, OII, BSCI, BDSI. That's the best I can do.

Who is going to keep this blog on track if you are gone?

Give us some more hints on the stock. I love puzzles.

Michelle

Kim,

Great posts yesterday. I just ahd a chance to read them.

All OAs,

I have a question on trades like WNR It is here I am getting stuck too. When you are up 150% in a trade in just a few days will you risk all of it, if it hasn't reached your target or just some of that profit? The reason I ask is that during the time when volatility was so high a couple of weeks ago I saw a lot of talk about taking profits on quick moves in your favor? ( Times when the DOW is up 300 one day and down 300 the next)I guess what I am asking is are there times where you would be more likely to take your profits quickly versus letting the winner run to its target? If so what do you use to make the distinction? IF not would you be willing to let all 150% go back and fail or is there like a certain % of the 150% you are willing to risk to get the rest of the move?

I apologize up front for being so confusing but I think this is a key point that would help me and I think others out alot.

Anu

Raimo-
That was so funny. So you've issued a mystery stock pick. Hmmm...rhymes with goodbye, inverse head and shoulders, gold

TIE

As for me I'm out of time.

"Head and shoulders of inverse"
"mining gold it is no joke"
"it's ticker symbol rhymes with goodbye"

Kim your close but its not TIE
and soon I must say goodbye
Deer season opens so I am off to play
This stocks first ticker letter ryhmes with hay...

Oh, I missed an important word "inverse."

So many posts, so little time (laugher.)

Hmmmm.

Michelle

Haven't looked at the chart, but ATI?

Michelle

Anu,

That's not a question anyone can answer for you. When you took the trade, what was your target? Are you happy with the profit? Should you sell half, sell all or let it ride? These are the decisions you need to make before you take the trade. Otherwise, you'll have this question every time you have a winning trade, or even a losing trade, for that matter.

WNR is near support, but what is your time frame? Are you aware of the major head and shoulders reversal at the top? Do you have enough time to ride it out? Should you cash out and wait for a consolidation to get in on a longer-term trade? You can only learn these things through trial and error.

Laney,
I have done the exact same thing. Let losers go with the "hope" that they would turn around. In fact, that is one of the biggest reasons I am now trading a small account. It wasn't all that small when I started..... In the recent months, I found that I was not necessarily setting a target to take profits. I had a general idea, but not a real plan.... Therefore, I ended up giving back too much. However, new rules and new plan are now in place. Although it is a little early to tell, so far they appear to be working much better.

And the book is great. I am not expecting to be able to do a 100% turnaround mentally overnight, but it certainly gives a good start! It is one of those books that you can pick up over and over again if you find yourself going backwards.

Raimo, I am impressed - you did it and did it well my friend.

Unfortunately, today and tomorrow I continue my gone all day trend as I have more business meetings. Sure hope I can catch up tonight.

Kim, if that unnamed stock takes off again I just may have to mention it...

Once again I have to leave for most of the day. It isn't starting off well with my puts going higher than my calls.

Question for Brett (or anyone) I have a really nice profit working on CROX but it isn't at my target. Since I can't be here if the market suddenly turns, I'm not sure where I should raise my stop to so I don't give back too much with a hard stop being hit. I've never used a trailing stop and was wondering if you use one and how much room you give it.
Thanks!

AUY has an inverse H&S.

VeroBarbara

Well done VeroBarbara

Raimo,
Thanks. And thanks for keeping us both educated and entertained.

VeroBarbara

Raimo,

I feel privledged to have graduated to poem status.

Thanks for helping me with REE and how to approach entry and exits.

This comment has been removed by the author.

DG,

here's my thoughts on CROX. It depends on your time frame. short term , a stop set half way below the big candle from 9/24(s1 per Dave Johnson), or use the ATR and set slightly below it. otherwise I see support around 57. Hope this helps.

DG,

I see support on CROX at 60. I drew a horizontal line from the top of the candle on 7/27 which lined up with 3 other candles before it broke out of the asc. triangle on 9/24. It retested 60 the next day. I'm willing to hold on to my target of $76 then set a trailing stop.

--Patti

VRTX broke the diagonal, horizontal support and 30-day MA I was watching. Anyone still looking for this thing to uncoil to the upside? If so, the next support I see is around $36.

Jay

Check out PAY. Looks to be the beginning of a "flag" pattern with a nice flagpole on B/O on huge volume. Is this retest and/or REE?
VeroBarbara

Jay,
VRTX is testing my line in the sand. My chart shows a break through the diagonal support, and I have it sitting right on horizontal support. I'm keeping a close eye on it.

Can anyone tell me what time the market opens?

I don't know what time the market opens, but doesn't it close for lunch?

Eastern Time
9:30am to 4pm

:)

Brand new trader?

Raimo,

Hey. I just read your comment that you saw the resistance on OI.

I went ahead and took the trade yesterday. Looks like a POSSIBLE cup w/handle to me. My price target is a retest of the old high (worst case) and a breakout to $49 (best case).

What's your price target? (I showed you mine, show me yours!) :)

Krystal

Yes you are correct, 30 minute lunch break, coffee break at 10 AM for 5 minutes and another one at 3 PM, also for 5 minutes.

BTW: A slow but a green day!!! Except for HANS... can someone go out there and buy some monster drinks? PLEASE! And how do we like GRMN creeping up towards the 120's again? :-)

-steven

Krystal,

your making me blush now...

If OI breaks out of $42, my target RTR is $49...

Okay bloggers, I am off to the woods...Brett is in charge...

Please tell me someone else is FSLR. I love this stock. Okay my prediciton next earnings announcement ....stock split. trading only 1 year and has gone from 25 to 120. Only makes sense. at least to me.

With regard to OI, how is a low risk entry point right now? looks to me if it breaks 41.50 and confirms that breakout we would have a low risk entry point.

Right now at 40.21 it seems you are using the 40 support line and expect a 1.5 dollar movement with a possible breakout above that. But once it hit's 41.50 it could right away go back to 40.

Do I understand that correct?

-steven

I also want to mention that it only takes one good trade to take you to that next level, and for me it has been FSLR. I've traded it many times,but back in early april to june I brought home over 500%. I re-entered at 102 for another ride.

It only takes one to wipe out all those losses and put you back on track or deep in the black(or green). that small trading account I began with a year ago, is no longer small.

So to all that are new, just stick with it, takes time to piece all together, but when does the rewards come in a BIG way!

Raimo,

Don't shoot Bambi!!

Steven,

OI is at a diag support line. I blogged someplace in here the trade, in this thread or maybe in yesterdays, I forget. Getting in today is REE (for me), and yes, it would be anticapatory as far as the breakout is concerned...if it does....a low risk entry..my oopinion.

Sean M. ..sorry buddy..I live for hunting..but I am very SELECTIVE and eat what I take...

Steven,

When I look at OI, this is what I see:

-An uptrending stock (higher highs, higher lows) near support (I have my own line drawn in, but you could use the moving average)

-A possible cup with handle formation, emphasis possible

-Good reward/risk ratio: if the stock breaks support, I'm out with a small loss, no questions asked; if the stock breaks out and hits my target, I have a minimum 9pt move to the upside.

Hope this helps! :)

Anyone else enjoying the JRJC reco I threw out monday morning. A lot of crazyiness happing with these chinese stocks.

JB

JB,
i wish i was enjoying JRJC.
i just didn't see a good entry point for me on monday morning.

Did you see a good entry that i didn't see? please let me know so i can look out for these in the future and not miss a breakout like this.

thanks.

kevin

DG,

Reco: If you use TOS as your trading platform you can download the mobile version, ThinkAnywhere onto your phone. This is how I watch my brokerage accounts when I'm not at home. As long as the buyers usually take when they're looking at each home you can take a minute to look at stocks that may be close to your target. Then you can call the trading desk to place the order. I don't make my trades through the phone even though I can. Don't trust it.

Kim

Kevin:

I just searched for china stocks with huge volume spikes ... like CDS and CHNG. Recognize these stocks will fall as quickly as they go up when the music stops.

JB

I read the comments regularly, but don't post often as I am still on the steep learning curve. My question involves AMG. I traded it from the low, through $117, and now am holding Oct. paper at $125 strike. If we close today above $125, does anyone see this as a good add position?
Thanks for your opinion in advance.

Yvonne,

It's hard for me to say on AMG, but here's my 2cents! :)

If you're using $125 as an area that previously acted as support, then a close above could be a good place to add. Then, you could use $125 as your line in the sand: if it closes below there, you can exit with a small loss.

Krystal

CLEAN CUPS!

Sue,

What does clean cups mean?

Hey Raimo

You ever do any bow hunting?

My old man is a big bow hunter he mostly goes for bear.

Just wondering

Grant

new thread

Anybody else get in on ACM this morning? Check it out tomorrow if you havent.

JC

Does anyone see and H&S on SHLD with first shoulder on 8/10, head on 8/24, second shoulder on 9/18 and neck line around 130?
Thanks for your opinion.

Janine