The Greater Good

Inquiring minds want to know, what I was watching this week and last week to determine my stance on the market. If you remember a couple weeks back, I called the end of a nice rally in the SPX. I typically watch the averages on an intra-day basis as I am normally day trade in index futures or swing trade index/etf options. Let's take a look at that same 20 day chart as of today... On the 15th, you see the big break of support that I had written about. On the 17th, a successful re-test, and from then on a nice downtrend. On the 24th, we failed to make a lower low, which hinted to me that we had established a bottom. We confirmed it by creating a higher high on the 25th. Now you can see that higher highs and lows are developing.

This doesn't mean I am overall bullish on the market. Well, I am but recently that feeling has been diluted by a few things. Primarily some weak earnings, $90 oil, and the market breadth. The NASDAQ's stellar performance has been fueled by three stocks...RIMM, AAPL, and GOOG. In my mind that tells me it is not as strong as everyone thinks. In fact, Semiconductors are typically a leading indicator, and take a look at the SOX... That to me is a major reversal that I have been waiting for for quite some time. I want to see how the market reacts outside of earnings. Good ol' MSFT pumped the market full of optimism, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken away.

I want to take a moment to review a few things. In fact, I was debating a follow up video to review my watchlist. Let's see what time permits for me today.

Take a look at MCRS. I mentioned several days back that I liked the set-up...I hope you enjoyed the reward... How could I not bring up ISRG!? I know a few people took this idea on my last watchlist, nice work!
Also, those that read my rants about what I am trading in know that I have held GLDN forever. This has been one of my longest running trades of all time, next to VIP. Look at it go!
Make sure you haven't forgotten about GLD. It's a great hedge as your dollars are becoming worthless.
Anyhow, make sure you are still watching the stocks in my watchlist, and the shopping list I gave out yesterday. There are still some good trading ideas built into those. Stay tuned as I might run another video later today...

Recommendation: If you read this blog daily, the market will reward you with profits and plenty of trades.

Long: Fridays

Short: the Marketcast

Disclaimer: Tom Petty is definitely an Option Addict

Guys, I don't quite know what to say. I mean, I'm fairly new to this blog, but I thought that the random comments and friendly banter were welcome. I thought that everyone was having a good time.

I don't know if there's any place left for me to go, seeing as how I am now in the bowels of the Dungeon of Shame...

Krystal, as long as you and Chris are still friends and playing nice then all is good with me.

Well, I for one am NOT friends with Chris anymore... HE STOLE MY BARBIE!

Funny how someone who only lurks and never provides any trading ideas or relevant information and steals the free ideas that are thrown out here feels they have a right to complain.

This has got to be the same kind of person who has a kid on the soccer team and does nothing but complain about the coach but never steps up to volunteer himself.

What are you trading anon? Why not provide something useful?

Kim, you know, you guys who have been around here for a while... if you guys don't like the random comments, I'll stop them, no questions asked. But this person didn't even let on to his/her identity, they just criticized.

Like I said, I won't be offended if you guys ask that I post trade-related comments only. Just say the word...

Sorry to anyone I have offended or annoyed. Most of all, to Jeff, if I've been a problem child...


I must have missed something. Is there some drama going on that I don't know about?

Thanks for a MOST informative post on your SPX posture.
I need to 'rebalance' my portfolio somewhat and have been eyeing gold for so long. I keep waiting for the pullback that never comes. I should probably Just Do It (tm-nike) but I have a fear of buying at the top to watch it come down right after I get in. I guess this has happened to me enough times in the past to have damaged me. I think I need a trading shrink, if there is such a thing.

Jeff, the last post before clean cups was by anon who complained about all the chitchat banter.

Can I ask you (or any OA) to take a look at MR please? I entered this on a bounce off support on 10/18. It's been going sideways to down since then, just skirting my trendline but not really breaking it. My position is getting hurt a bit by the ivol as well. I'm close to throwing in the towel for a larger loss than I anticipated but since it really hasn't broken trend I'm reluctant. Can I get your opinion on this one please?

DG, all my puts I have been in for awhile so none that are at DGEE.

Jeff, great post - THANKS! I need to print and read several times.

Krystal, Chris stole your Barbie! Ok, now I understand it all. Go get him. Chris you are on your own buddy. Better get Catherince as backup.

Oh and Krystal, I have found over the years that because you can't see or feel emotion with email many cannot get an accurate read on intent (if it is in fun or not.) Yes, I have been caught in this trap myself.

What day does the Fed meet next week? I am going to be out the rest of the day and need to clean up my account a little bit.


SVU, looks like I may have had my stop too tight.


I agree with the Silent Bystander Speaking Out post. Some of us just don't have the time nor the patience to sift through hundreds on non trading related posts. If you want daily interaction about things not trading related get a dog.

I was just about to say that myself. SVU missed my stop by $0.30 and I actually broke my own rule and canceled the stop.

Fed meets on 10/31 2:30 announcement I suppose.

Bob, agreed (about the email).

Kim, I hope I wasn't coming across like I was addressing you personally... you were just the last person who had posted about the Anonymous comment. But I agree with you that this person doesn't contribute anything, but still wants to criticize. I don't get that either. If Raimo were here, he wouldn't have it! :)

I don't mind the banter so much myself, as long as it doesn't run too long, (like anon's lengthy rant on the last post)

What the expletive is up with the cast Mr. Kohler?

MR. Here is my .02. Intermediate term trend line is not even close to being broken. If I were in this trade my get out point would be somewhere between 1% to 3% below the trendline as of the day you took the trade, 10/18(based on my trend line that would equate to between $37.40 and $36.80). I bounce for me would have also been on 10/17 instead of 10/18. Are you using your trendline as your get out point instead of a certain percentage below? That will make your losses larger. As long as it hasn't violated my lines by close to closing time I'd be staying in.

Consequently, I'm in SVU as well but it hasn't broken my % above the trend line yet either. It was flirting with it earlier but I wait until the end of the day to make any decisions.

Hey anon, what's your opinion?

One of Jeff's support bounces from Tues. Bounced off 70 yesterday, confirming today.

Ryan, we are ALL up in arms about the Marketcast. Unless Eric Utley is helping Linc and Sucre break Michael Scoffield out of Prison, he better get back here... NOW!!!



Like the others I don't mind a little bit of banter,but its has been getting to be a little much as of late. Personally I don't post unless I really have something to contribute. I've been on this blog for quite awhile and there have ups and downs,but its important to remember why we are here and that's to become better traders.

Just my opinion.



Just checking in from my tree.

One less bear around, let the market rally the next few weeks.

Michelle, quite honestly, if you got stopped out of SVU have not learned patience, support and resistance, the fundamentals of trading.

I kinda agree with annonymouse, the blog has changed lots since I have been here as well. I post less because I have to read through so much social stuff, it does make it difficult. This however has nothing to do with the blogger awards. Nor does it mean that this is still not the best trading site around, and we all still get along. What is key here is being able to not be offended if you are critisized....that is part of a social in general..

I suspect as this blog grows, Jeff will work out these EXPECTED kinks.

We need a trading section, and a social section, or keep your social bantor to a minimum. No offense bloggers, but I do see a lot more social crap lately than I do trading stuff.

When I get back next week, I will talk nothing but trading, and a lot of it. For those of you that choose to leave this site, which is still the best trading site, your loss.

And if you dont have the guts to speak here with a real identity regardless of what you have to say, good or bad, you are still benefiting from JEFFS PICKS.....and making money....but you are a user and a coward when you critisize under annonymouse....SO FUCK OFF.

Back to the woods......

SYK, thanks for bringing it up. I like the bounce off previous resistance.

Okay guys, thanks for the honest feedback. I will definitely keep non trade-related comments to a minimum... No worries.

On that note, what time is the Fed announcing its rate cut decision? Is it 2pm as always? I'm thinking about taking a few profits at the close today in anticipation of some market volatility next week...

I couldn't even feign interest in the market cast, especially when Jason Money had to correct himself after saying they like the chance to "take over" the market cast. Besides, I've always found John Thatcher to be irritatingly pompous at best. If this is the sign of things to come I can make better use of my time.

Anonymous- I understand your displeasure with this trading blog becoming more of a chat room but it belongs to Jeff, he makes the rules, sets the tone and direction and he's allowing it to be loose and friendly. I suggest you just scan through the messages quickly and if you don't see a ticker symbol, just keep going.

One suggestion to you highly positive delta traders. I hope you're having a great day, continue to lean on those bullish trades but try and buy some cheap puts at the end of the day. The market seems to see-saw regularly. We're heading into the traditionally best trading and investing months of the year and the president always wants the economy and market to end on a positive note as a legacy so keep your portfolio mostly, but not all bullish. Oil is high and we don't have a lot of positive breadth to the market so anything can still happen.

What the market giveth, the market taketh away. Be prepared.

You should learn to speak your mind and not hold back like that!

I agree i WORK FULL TIME PLUS.. I came to this blog to improve my trading mainly. I usually sit back and watch adults either act like adults or childern. I do believe there needs to be a section for those who are the expressive type just unload back and forth. In the same instance have a strickly trading section so everyone can benfit their accounts that the ones that are senstive won't keep lashing out..

OA - as another member of the silent ones, I'd like to speak out. I'm cool with the silent bystander. I'd rather speak their piece. We each come from a different place. Some have time and inclination to be very active other don't or its not their style. I'm crazy about this site because of the education and real time insights it provides. Be it the Master OA himself, the confident full timers he has enabled, people like C2 with wit and unbelievable communication skills, or sharp witted newbies - its all good. An it makes a unique community. Jeff is a blessing and this means of sharing he's created and sustains is a blessing. BUT - for those who have to catch up when they can - if long posts (except for C2) could be shortened. It would help.

Love ya OAs. Jim Ahern

Sarah ... I agree with you ... and Raimo - I support your statement as well. I too am only trying to post when I can help!

This is a fabulous place ... a community to trade with and learn from. I'm all for that ...

Thanks traders!

I am the walrus
CHU CHU kachoo.



i have gotten conflicting advise on whether to just pay taxes on gains or be classified as a trader,,,would love to hear some feedback from those that are making money and thus tax-liable,,,just dont know what direction i should take,,i have heard from all that once you classify yourself as a trader you "cant go back"

Truly I understand the reason to communicate and didn't mean to be harsh and I could easily talk how bad it is here with the wild fires and the friends that lost homes and the stress of saving people and the listings I had are trashed. Although I need to find a normal state so I escape into trading and other things because the tragdy is unbelieveable... I can't understand why someone would set some of these fires it blows my mind.. I will try to give you guys trading ideas but I am busy with all the surrounding things out here.. This will change and I will contribute to everyone's sucess.. God Bless all of you.. Back to work for me it's prospecting time....

California Trader,
You have enough on your plate and our thoughts and prayers are with all of you out there. I hope through all of our banter some of the ideas work for you.

I'm the Tiger riding the CHU CHU train!

I, for one, enjoy the banter and would miss it if it were gone. I do have more time than most and understand the point being made. This blog, unlike all the rest, has chemistry and if you delete one of the ingredients, then what is left tastes like my cooking.

Let's find a happy medium (def.-a way of doing things that avoids being extreme).

cvh never retested but dropped based on projections

Clean Cups

va girl

thanks for the prayers and your thoughts I hope to find good in this tragdey. The love pouring out to all the firemaen and people that lost homes is fantastic..

Thanks Jeff, for the great SPX analysis and for keeping things on topic. I'm here to learn!


What is your future prediction of US stock market. Where it is headed?


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Good covered point, lots of people simply put something weired theories

in front of public.But it doesn’t work i think because know one sure how

it will going to happen It looks like just coping ideas which someone has

already written. I found even on popular blogs guest bloggers bring same

theories which I already know. I observed they just try to spice up their

article without knowing what really audience want to read.


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  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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