Grin and Bear it

Unfortunately, employment kept me from being more proactive about blogging today. Missing 100 Dow points is like forgetting a friends birthday. It's not something you want to make a habit of.

This will be a pretty shaky week. Not for technical reasons, but for fundamental reasons. Most major companies report earnings this week. Make sure you know when and where your companies report, unless you are into that whole "Oh $#!+, surprise thing."

Speaking of fundamental reasons, I don't like the price action here in the market. Here is an intra-day chart. Fundamentals are the only thing that can keep our heads above water (below: SPX 20Day).


If you are not long GLD, or OIH, don't bother talking to me. I don't like being ignored, and if you are not reaping profits on the most bullish commodities on the planet, then yes, you have been ignoring me.

Speaking of profits, how could I not like the moves in TBSI, DRYS, SNP, VDSI, SII, DVA, SNDA, SLB and CNX?

My shorts performed wonderfully, most notably ZION, ATI, THQI, NCS, CPA, CAH, AVTR, GLYT, JCP and a few others.

I took down XOM. I felt pretty good about that. I won't discuss any more entries until tomorrows video though, so don't ask.

Next topic... BIIB. I can't imagine this being the case, but if you didn't sell yet, take a look my last takeover offerings I gave out early...UIC and BOBJ. As you can see, there is no upside left. Even when the price falls short of the takeover price, don't ever hold. Sell. I have tried this on a few occasions, most recently AH. If you can remember this takeover candidate I gave you earlier this summer, it was priced $4 short of the offering price, and I held for a few days only to realize what an idiot I was.

Don't get greedy.

Since China has been breaking my balls, I softened the blow by reducing my exposure. I see some softening in the "buy it all now before it bursts" department... therefore I am adapting to the potential risk. This wasn't a major sell off by myself obviously, the Chineese market would have crashed.

In closing, my bets tonight are on the New York Giants and the Boston Red Sox. I better hurry home before dinner gets cold.

Recommendation: Nil

Long: October Sports

Short: Cold Dinners

Disclaimer: The Giants and BoSox read my blog before tonight's sporting events.

jeff,

i noticed you bought xom before earnings, are you going to hold over earnings?

todd

Todd,

I am going to call the CFO tomorrow and request that the date be pushed back, or that they forego the call altogether this quarter.

I'll let you know how it goes.

Jeff

TOO FUNNY!!!!

-steven

Todd,

I got into XOM this morning. I know you didn't ask me, but I don't plan to hold over earnings. Being a newbie, I'm not familiar with the more advanced strategies to profit from holding over earnings.

I wonder what goodies'll be on the watchlist tomorrow... :)

Jeff, et al, In case anyone is interested, today PBBK printed and mailed out the announcement about the takeover of their bank where Belvedere says they will pay $23 a share for stock that is currently trading at about $18.70.

Sometime soon you will be able to say, "Yeah, he was right, it did go up" or else I will end up in the discard pile along with Beanie and whatever else you scrape off the bottom of your shoe!

Stan

Jeff,
I'm pissed. I bought GLD a month ago because of you. I thought you meant PUTS!!! Just kidding. You and Eric have been all over it for so long my ears hurt. It never EVER has earnings. Maybe you could convince the CFO of XOM and see if he'd announce his earnings over at GLD instead. That'd mess everybody up. You could short XOM and make a fortune!!!

I should point out to newbies here that all you need to do is follows Jeff's watchlists and the Marketcast. Have a look at Jeff's 60 picks from last week. If you'd bought one contract in each of them, you'd probably be up about 60% this week. Maybe more, with BIIB.

I'm exhausted. Sure could use another week like last week. We'll see how it goes.

Look Stan, Jeff's readers are too smart to fall for a stock that trades 1000 shares a day. No one here is a fool. I suggest you buy all that stock up for yourself.

We eat stocks for lunch that get bought out almost every week, thanks to Jeff, so we know how buyouts work. Remember, if you have to send a press release out on your stock, then its a dead giveaway that no one in their right mind wants to buy it.

At this point you need to go with the trend of the group. SFM

Jeff all I can say is thanks, that really ment a lot to me.....

Jeff all I can say is thanks, that really ment a lot to me.......

Okee Dokee SFM- Nothing like sticking my neck out to see how the ax falls. I originally bought $50,000 worth of this stock at the IPO several years ago before I was a trader or investor. My accountant and one other friend are on the board of directors and I personally know several key execs so I knew the bank was designed with one purpose in mind and that was to attract a bigger buyer. That has been accomplished so (apparently) I finally get to see my payday. I was just trying to contribute an idea that might generate you a couple of bucks. Thanks for the advice though.
Stan

thanks everyone for sharing your PHD experience with me!

really appreciate it.

now, I am really concerned..
has anyone taken the online version and found it helpful?
otherwise, I think that I'd rather take the class for 3 days and learn it.

Mimosa

Mimosa,

Please do not take my comments as negative toward the online as I said several concepts only came together for me after that training. I have heard that the personal interaction was better live but as that is not available the online is still great.

Stan, I understand and have been right where you are. In fact I have dropped my $50,000 on the table several times with the big payday in mind. I hear about 1 in 10 really work and I hope that this is the one for you. I have not been so lucky and have those wonderful $50,000 markers out there still. In the company I own we are doing somewhat the same thing so I really do know what you are talking about. If I were to do this again Pam would trade the hammers for an axe!

I gotta go to bed. When did 6th grade math become so exhausting?

Can't we all be friends and get along?

We're all putting our thoughts and ideas out there.

liz

"I've had relations with the markets for 9 years."

Is that a Utah thing?

lol!

Uh oh, we got shit talking going on.

\ Is Jeff Kohler gonna have to choke a goddess? I think he's gonna have to get out this blog and choke a goddess!

LOL.

Ben

Since we're talking GLD, did anyone listen to me on SA friday morning? I hear a buyout may be on the horizon

but long-time readers of this blog know that I expect a buyout on any stock i have a long position in.

...oh, and short positions too!

TIM!!!!

We need you man! It's time to shrink another blogger. I don't want to read anything Trading Goddess has to say on this site. Curiosity on our blogger award competition got me on her site over the weekend. All I can say is...


P U

Kim

Oh,and one more thing Miss Trading Goddess. Your tata's are not going to convince me that you know how to make money in the market. Let's get serious.

Now, now, Kim. Let's be nice. She probably paid a lot of money for them.

Now girls,

Pull your claws back in.... Do you really think those pics are really of jer? If you have followed her site for any length of time you will notice that it is all about who she wants to be but never who she really is. Mostly hot air to draw the weakminded in to boost her alter-ego. Her "picks" never really do what she predicts - all open source information she gleans off the web...

JJ

Stan, I am not being hard on you. I am having a hard time believing that you are sincere. If you already know that it is very hard to make money on that stock, and its very hard to sell it once you buy, then why are you recommending that we bloggers buy it?

Lets keep the blog clean and only offer stocks that we ourselves are buying. Lets take good care of each other.

If you made a mistake, move on. Take your loss and make it back in these stocks that are moving right now.

Get with oil. Take some money and buy CEO or PTR or OIH on a pullback. You will make your money back and them some.

Can you see that to promote bad investment tips on the blog is not right. Since you know it, please dont do it. Warm regards, SFM

Its ok to comment. I am not averse to criticism. I think some people might be under the impression that that I am the Trading Goddess.

However I am not. I am "SFM" SusanFromManhattan. My photo is there. I am generally nice but being from Manhattan I do speak out from time to time. I LOVE this blog and am motivated to keep it safe for all humanity. SFM

SFM,
Trading Goddess posted earlier on this thread and this is who DG and I are referring to.

JJ,
I don't need to spend any amount of time on her site. Once was enough. She needs to stay on her own blog and leave the garbage over there.

Brett,
I heard you.
But - I am struggling with my EE when the stock has already made a several dollar move. (conservative trader, tight EE, small account for now)
I'm learning and re-evaluating my EE though, thanks to Jeff, you and this site.

kim

Please don't respond to this, I mean it in a nice way. I hope everyone makes an effort to keep on the topic of trading today, myself included. Now that the blog is attracting so much attention, it makes it even harder to get through all the posts.

Just ignore the Beanies and Trading Godesses-they are trying to get attention. If you ignore that type, they eventually move on.

And B-Day boy from yesterday may have been Beanie in disguise.

--Patti

Marketcast from last night:
Ben Watson mentioned doing a spread on BA.

Sell Nov 85
Sell Nov 105

Anyone have any ideas as to why he might have suggested such a disparity between strike choice?

Kim

Mimosa, The 7-week version of the 3 day class was very helpful for me. I got one-on-one attention because the class was small plus it included a 1-hour open office each week to clarify anything. Most of those signed on never showed up during the actual class but listened at a later time. Classes are available to listen to over and over any time you want. Two instructors teach as a team.

It was convenient for me but I can't compare it to the 3-day live since I didn't choose that.

--Patti

Kim - A reason that the spread is more than a strike price apart could be to reduce the cost of the "insurance" side of the spread and net a bigger premium.

Kim, I should have waited until the caffeine kicked in before replying to your question :)

Without having heard the marketcast, is it possible that he was talking about selling an iron condor? Looking at those strikes and the chart, that is really about all I can come up with.

Mimosa,

My husband and I are in our sixth week of the on-line training course. It is wonderful. We meet for two hours on Monday and follow up with a one hour Wednesday meeting that is more of an open discussion. Shay Aslett and Josh Black are our instructors and have done a terrific job. I don't know how I could have absorbed all of the information they have provided in a three day class. We have been with IT for 9 months and trading real money for 6. Hope this information helps with your decision.

Ann

Guys, RIMM at REE

Chris, how did you know - PNR? Finally it is moving a bit in the right direction.

FCX is the one today! Someone needs to show it how to move in the correct direction.

Bob,
Just look at it. PNR is a graphical representation of nirvanna!! It is perfect.

VTIV on the other hand has broken support and I am giving it until this afternoon before I lop it's head off. PCP continues to toy with my emotions. OI and MTN are both struggling today too. This could be a day that I unload a bunch of stuff that I bought yesterday right at REE.

The puts are up $50 and the calls are down $300. This is a day to keep emotions in check.

Chris, I have having the same day here. LEN is saving me right now or at least making up for FCX. Some of my bulls are in danger this afternoon too.

What a stinky day.
I see MTN at my REE.

Chris and Bob,
Ditto for me. Unfortunately I've got several in danger after releasing some yesterday as well.
Sold yesterday:
KSS call for loss
OMG call for small profit
OI call for loss
ENR call went from profit to loss

I got into QMAR and this morning it had a nice gap up to an all time high. Looks like it still has legs.
Stan

VIX is finally back above 20 which for me is a good minimum range to be making money selling options.

Watch LEG and MAS to soon break through descending triangles to the downside.

Okay people, I think I'm dumping ELON today. It's dead weight.

I bank at Washington Mutual (WM) but that doesn't mean I can't make money shorting their stock or buying puts. It's rolled over quite nicely lately as have many lenders. Could be a smidgen of support at $32.50; any hesitation and I'll take profits, otherwise, let it run downhill!
Stan

Chris, Bob & Kim-

Can I be the third ditto? My puts are moving in the right direction but like Chris said, up $50, down $300. It could be worse. I did have to unload a few this am. The rest seem to be holding on by very thin threads.

liz

I very rarely (like almost never) ditch anything before the afternoon session. I do however, buy before the end of the day. Only one I have close is FCX although PNR is being weird again.

Clean cups!

Boy, my account's just back and forth all over the place... up one minute and down the next!...

I'm still in OI with a small profit, hoping this is just a retest. If not, I'll take the money and run.

Can't WAIT to see what Jeff has on his watchlist this week so I can get some bears (my husband has forbade me from buying puts since our previous ones have not panned out too well, but I feel "exposed" not having any). So far I've done fine with my calls (except for the few rogue losers), but I don't like not having any puts.

Bob, that's interesting that you don't exit any positions before the afternoon. Is that because of the intraday swings? I try not to do much in the first hour unless I feel strongly about an idea (like XOM yesterday at REE at the open).

With just a few days left in the option month it can make sense to sell out of the money options against some of your positions. I sold 50 $45 call options against ACN for $0.15 each and if the stock makes a $5 move in a few days and I get called out then God bless that lucky trader, otherwise I made some pretty easy pocket change.
Stan

CLEAN CUPS!!!

IT'S THE WATCHLIST!!!

HALLELUJAH!

Lis,
I just got into MTN yesterday because I thought it was at REE. I am willing to give it a bit of slack but not much. It is like a teenager who has been caught lying. Without the fake "I'm sorry."

Stan, nice one on QMAR. I looked at it and thought about it, but never pulled the trigger.

Krystal. I have ELON stock and usually give it a bit more lattitude, but I'm just about fed up with this one. I might be cutting it lose today, too.

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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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