An Interesting Comment...
OBSERVATION FROM A PASSIVE OBSERVER: I wanted to make a neutral comment to what was once a great blog site. Yes that is correct, once was a great site. The few that make the majority will start to scream now about the Blog Awards but you all know that it is a false standing because of your "pumping" of the votes with fake email addresses and multiple votes by the vocal minority.
This site has become a "Peyton Place" full of desperate housewives and husbands" - if you are in doubt then step back and read with an open mind the garbage that spews from your keyboards daily - again from the noisy few. Again you will rise up and contest this statement but the facts are the facts.
How could you begin to think that this is a trading blog? It is a fishing hole whereby Jeff in his charitable fashion hands out his watchlists week after week. Reality check? How many of you can operate without outside influences or inputs to scan for, analyze, execute and monitor your own trades? My guess would be not many!
Here is a challenge to the noisy majority: try keeping ALL comments and thoughts focused on trading for a week on this site and see how productive it becomes to not only you but the quiet minority.
I know that your screaming and threats will soon fly back and fill the comments section with rhetoric and garbage directed towards my comments. How about not reacting in a predictable manner and focus on trading. If you want or need a social outreach forum then start a group chat that will allow you to interact - my guess is that it would not succeed and there would only be the dominant few - still in disbelief? Scan the comments for who is actually posting and see a short list of names that control the blog.
To all the silent minority that visit here to try and actually learn about trading, hang in there. Hopefully Jeff will once again return to the methods he used to employ when the site was trading focused.
Have a great day TRADING!!!
Silent Bystander Speaking Out
Silent Bystander, thank you for making your comment. In fact, I would love it if you would try to get in contact with me at some point today.
As a community we have encountered this topic before, but I want to bring it back into the spotlight for a public opinion, and to hear some of YOUR feedback about it.
To be honest, I don't read the comments anymore. In fact, the last time I felt I was able to engage with the community was over the weekend when myself and a few others chatted about option greeks. I have said it before and I will say it again, I don't have problem with a little banter that is off topic. I encourage it. In fact, each day after I write "the meat" of my daily post, I try to throw in some off topic material such as music videos, talking about sports, reality t.v. or something else to shake things up a bit. As you've noticed, it is a very small portion of my content.
It is troublesome to see a good post get immediately inundated with comments that do not relate to the topic whatsoever. However, when it is trading ideas, or questions relating to trading, most readers are willing and able to engage immediately, including myself. I agree with the comment that the blog has definitely changed over the last few weeks/months and I am not quite sure it is for the best.
I have mentioned that I have been involved in some changes recently. I have developed and am currently beta-testing a new site, and I have a lot of tricks, ideas, and valuable content up my sleeve. This is part of the reason why I find it impossible to keep up the the comments.
I really want to do what is best for the community, and bring the cream back up to the top. As it stands, it drives valuable readers/contributors away. I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are on the topic.
Please, leave me a comment about this topic. Just this topic.
Even if you lurk on this site, please come out of the dark. Even if you don't agree, tell me your opinion. Let's use this as an opportunity to rally around building an efficient trading community, which is what the blog was intended for.
Jeff,
Thank you for noticing! I knew that you were STILL the Jeff that I had known from days past and was STILL focused on wanting to help others as you helped me.
I will contact you via email today as you requested. I am excited about the future site!!! Sounds exciting to say the least!!!
With many thanks!!!
The Silent Bystander - Anon for now
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 10:30:00 AM
More trade talk, less usless banter.
Dan
Posted by Unknown | 10/26/2007 10:34:00 AM
Jeff -
My opinion is that the blog would be much more helpful to those people trying to learn from you and other successful traders if the social content posted by us readers was maintained in a separate area. I think your posts are great as they are, but all of the intraday social commentary in the comments makes it very time intensive to find trade-specific material.
Take care -
John A.
Posted by Unknown | 10/26/2007 10:39:00 AM
Jeff,
I agree that there's a lot of 'useless' talk to sift through on a daily basis. However, I also believe that one of the reasons this site is so successful is because this really IS a community. That separates it from the other blogs that talk AT you, rather than engage the participants.
There has to be a happy medium here. In my opinion, organization is the key. I'm sure there is a way to keep chatter segregated from the trading talk. By removing the chatter altogether, you're removing a key element of the blog: friendship.
As a professional trader, I would prefer to be able to quickly get my educational posts and discussions along with trade setups quickly without having to hear about someone's weekend. On the other hand, on a slow day, it's nice to talk to people living in the same world as i am (there aren't too many doing this in Omaha).
So that's my opinion.
Just my opinion.
Posted by Brett | 10/26/2007 10:40:00 AM
Brett,
I totally agree. In my posts, I try to set the standard. The majority is trade related, but I spend a fraction on off topic content.
I also realize that some days there just isn't anything to talk about. Like I said, I don't want to kill the community at all. I agree that there is a happy medium, and I need help defining it.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 10:43:00 AM
amen passive! You beat me to the punch
thanks
Greg
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 10:43:00 AM
thank you, Jeff. I agree Brett.
P.S. Jeff" what am I going to do about MON!"
thanks again and again.
sooooo did you strangle MSTR?
Posted by Sarah | 10/26/2007 10:44:00 AM
Jeff,
I cannot thank you enough for the OA Blog. Even though my husband and I have been through the Masters program w/ IT, there are still some things I(we) needed to understand better. Your blog is a dream come true. There is such a wealth of information here that is available nowhere else. There are times when I don't have a lot of time to read through every comment, so I do look for ticker symbols to focus in on. I admit I like the funny stuff as long as it doesn't get to carried away. Your watch lists and other educational info are amazing. And the informative comments of the OA family are greatly appreciately, as well.
Thanks, Barbara Norman (aka VeroBarbara)
Posted by VolSmile | 10/26/2007 10:50:00 AM
Jeff,
I'm glad someone was BOLD enough to express. I just glance the blog everyday since most of the comments are outside the TRADING arena.
Thanks, Meena
Posted by Unknown | 10/26/2007 10:51:00 AM
I agree with TSB. I've been quietly reading and learning for months as I develop my trading. For a couple months now, I just read the posted topic and don't even attempt to read the 200+ comments for lack of any substance.
I'll admit that I do look at Jeff's watchlist, but I by no means buy anything without doing my own analysis. Even if you did buy everything he threw out, you'd lose your a$$ anyway, because you don't know what, when, or why. So I don't think that is an issue Jeff needs to worry about. He obviously has a lot more to his system than we'll ever know and rightfully so, it works for him and not everyone else. Each person's situation is different.
So I vote for less comments, more meat and potatoes!
Jake
Posted by Jake | 10/26/2007 10:52:00 AM
I agree with what Brett said (as I should have done on BCSI but ...). I think it should be fairly easy to have a link to a separate forum area for social talk/banter. I like hearing about trading experiences, even the venting is helpful (usually) to hear what people's trading thought processes are (successes and failures).
But there is just no reason for the numerous poetry posts, and things of that nature in the trading forum. I work about 60 hours a week and it takes me longer to sift through the banter and find trading comments than I need to spend.
Now ... even with the banter/poetry this is still the best trading site I have seen. There is sooo much knowledge here from Jeff, the more experienced traders, and new traders. All trading talk even if it is a little chatty is good stuff.
But the poetry stuff etc., got so bad for awhile I got to where I didn't have time to sift through the forums until the weekends.
I think something should be done such as a separate chat forum link for people to write poetry back and forth to each other and chat about homelife etc.
My comments aren't directed at anyone (some of the chatty people also have some of the best trading info). I just say we keep the trading in the trading forum and have a chat forum for everything else.
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/26/2007 10:52:00 AM
Jeff,
BTW your last comment is a perfect example of what a post should be.
thanks for the direction.
Posted by Sarah | 10/26/2007 10:53:00 AM
Sorry for the mispelling - correction: appreciated
Posted by VolSmile | 10/26/2007 10:54:00 AM
I am in Brett's camp on just a little balance ... 85% trading 15% banter!
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 10:58:00 AM
Jeff,
I visit this blog daily and honestly, I seldom read the comment section or post a comment. So if it gets off topic, I don't noitce. Keep up the good work and I appreciate it.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:00:00 AM
Jeff, I like your site, and visit it and the comments daily. I do think that it has strayed way too much to the social, and while understandable, it does not contribute and could well be done in another setting. Thanks for all you do, and really looking forward to the new site
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:04:00 AM
Jeff, your blog is great. Love the watch lists and the analysis videos. Can do without the off-topic chatter and other stuff. I've been a lurker for quite some time and will continue to be. Keep it up and I look forward to the "new site" whenever it comes to be.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:05:00 AM
Hello all -
Ive been reading the blog for a few months, silently that is, just trying to absorb as much as possible. I think it is imprtant to remember that the best posts are the ones that incorporate both trading ideas and some witty humor...However I think it goes to far when comments are written totally off topic. Like many here, I work all day and have very little time to read through 200 comments when 100 of them dont mean anything to me. Furthermore, i guess I should back up my reasoning in the future with some posts myself. Speaking of that, why hasnt anyone mentioned PBR, one of the most consistent performances of the year, and a really nice play with the oil rally.
- Norcal
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:09:00 AM
I am sure I have added to the banter in the past. I have been trying to cut the time spent trading / doing analysis ect down to under 1 1/2 hours a day, so that i can get through Murphy's book. When I see a thread with over 150 comments I usually will not read through much. I kknow I am missing opprotunities that people are throwing out there, but there is only so much time.
That being said, the thought of Chris going to the door with goggles on still has me smiling.
Posted by Flying-Pro | 10/26/2007 11:11:00 AM
Jeff,
I couldn't agree more with Brett. I usually lurk, but I do like the sense of community on this site. At the same time, trading needs to be a primary focus.
Andrea
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:12:00 AM
I stopped reading the comments due to the chatter as I just don't have the time. So I just read what you, (Jeff), post.
If we can separate the social stuff in a different area so people interested could spend time there. As an idea look at www.epicski.com
People sometimes just don't get it. You asked to write about THIS topic only and Sarah just asked about MON and MSTR...! UUhhhh!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:12:00 AM
Brett, well said. I do enjoy a bit of the banter, but not to the extent it has reached. This is by all means the best blog ever. Why? Because of Jeff. Because of Jeff, he's attracted a wonderful following of OA's. Both make this blog wonderful. I want it to stay that way....BEST TRADING BLOG EVER.
I am very new to trading, trading for real only about 8 months now. I have posted a bit, but quite frankly, I felt intimidated. I really know so little compared to Raimo, Doji girl, Brett, Benton, Bob & Pam, Chris & Catherine, Stan Lake, Krystal, VeroBarbara. There are many more of you, so don't feel bad if I did not mention you. I do read your comments and take to heart your suggestions. I do my own studing and decide if it is a good trade for me. As time goes on and I learn more, I hope to contribute more.
I am still in BCSI. Dumb I'm sure. I will be out of it at the end of the day if it does not rally here pretty soon.
Question: If oil is doing so well, why is XOM and OIH doing so poorly? I think these will be gone also.
Barbara
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:14:00 AM
I vote for a separate chat room from the trading room. I'm a serious trader, maybe too serious. When I want to lighten up I wouldn't mind going to a separate area and chatting with traders about non-trading issues. Right now my focus is on trading- only trading. I AM an option addict.
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 11:14:00 AM
Sarah,
Yes I strangled MSTR again. What would earnings season be like without this one! IV is sky high right now, so had I not gotten in, I doubt I would do it here.
Folks,
I am hoping to go live on Monday with the new site, and I have already created two avenues for reader participation. I hope to get the finishing touches on this weekend, then I can start focusing on a new Marketcast.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 11:15:00 AM
Jeff,
TSB is right on the money.
This is the single best trading blog I've found, and I've been on many. What you offer in trading tips, option tips, and account management is beyond priceless, and the Tuesday watchlist has become one of my primary sources for leads.
For the last couple of weeks, I've checked in for your post and watchlist but not much else, because the social chatter has become impossible to weed through for the good ideas that are found. I think if it were possible to have a separate forum for the social stuff, it would solve the problem.
I think having a tight community is phenominal, but I would guess that the vast majority would visit and contribute much more often to a TRADING site (with a bit of your irreverence thrown in!).
Thanks for everything you do, and have a great weekend.
Mark
Posted by Mark | 10/26/2007 11:21:00 AM
Jeff,
The previous post on the SPX was great, thanks.
I agree with Brett. I like the banter, but then again, I have the time to sift through the posts.
Anonymous comments really bug me. A lot. A whole lot. If you can't sign your name to it, then don't post it. Veiled in an anonymous moniker is the cowards way out.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 11:22:00 AM
I like Stan's idea of a separate chat room and think the original post of too much off topic chatter was right on! It makes the site into a "desperate housewives" alternative rather than a great blog of terrific information. I have gone from reading every day to ocassional or just the watch lists to get away from the drama.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:22:00 AM
Funny thing this posting makes me reflect on how I personally use the blog. 16mos or so ago I could read everything, it was all mostly trade related and sooo educational from Jeff.
It still is sooo educational from Jeff.
Lately, I just (Ctrl-F) for Bret, Raimo ... and others, to get to what I'm looking for. 9 times out of ten their posts are trading.
My posts are always trade related, (ie yesterday at 3:00pm when most people check-in to this site I find MCD breakout and tell the group immediately, after I get the trade entered).
I wish Jeff had a Traders Lounge and a Chat Lounge.
Chat Lounge ( for junk talk )
Traders Lounge ( the good stuff )
My 2cents.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:27:00 AM
Anonymous,
Exactly. I don't want it to become something that people visit once and awhile because it is too much of a hassle. I want to draw people in here of various backgrounds and experiences so that everyone can be immersed in opinions and methods that are relevant to what we are trying to accomplish.
I am hoping the new site will accomodate all these requests.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 11:31:00 AM
Jeff
You have said it all it that happens I am fine love to see more trading ideas and contribute to that. If want the other then had to that part of the site. It sounds great for what is coming. I can't wiat to see what you have put together. and thank goodness you have a new market cast I was getting a little concerned.. back to trading...
Posted by Califorina.Trader | 10/26/2007 11:32:00 AM
Jeff,
looking forward to your new site, the new Marketcast!!! and the continued helpful comments offered up by your wisest bloggers.
thanks to all,
kim t
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:32:00 AM
At the same time, those that are chatty, I don't want to discourage or hurt feelings here. Please don't take it that way.
If there is another point of view out there, fire away, please!
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 11:33:00 AM
excuse spelling errors trying to do three things at once have to go client on the phone..
Posted by Califorina.Trader | 10/26/2007 11:33:00 AM
I too feel there is often too much non trading comments, by a few, that tend to monopolize the comment section.
I for one have quit reading much of it and scan for certain individuals post that are mostly about trading (Brett, Ramio, and Jeff to name acouple). The others I simply don't have enough time to read and if I don't read all of it, it is very hard to follow the personal stuff.
I also think that if we focused more on trading, we would get better content in the posts. I enjoy when people talk about trades, the why they got into/out of them, what the targets are, etc.
I personally usually leave my last couple of trades and my holdings but usually there are no comments back. I'm not sure that is really helping anyone or if anyone reads it anyway. Maybe I should stop?
I really like when people wonder about something and others help them with answers (like why did VSDI drop so much in the past few days?...earning I think). This community is great for that.
Just some thoughts.
Posted by Strat | 10/26/2007 11:33:00 AM
I'm a lurker,that has learned a lot from this site.The watchlist is great,even if I never used it to make a trade(I do use it to make trades),it is educational to see if I'm seeing the same patterns and set-ups you do.
As for the chat,some of it is infomative,some entertaining,but some verbal diarrhea.
Thanks for the site!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:38:00 AM
Hey Jeff-
For better of for worse, I pretty much read all the comments (except the poetry). It doesn't take me that long to read through to find the nuggets, so it doesn't really bother me. Sorta like sifting through a watch list.
My main objective to coming to the blog every day is to educate myself as much as possible, with the ambition of becoming a pro one day. Not to hear what Joe Shmo had for lunch.
One thing that really helps me learn is looking at case studies of specif trades from A to Z. The entry, option, exit and rationale. I'm not looking for a hand out as these trades would already be closed.
Can't really criticize this blog in any way. I've come a long way in the last year thanks to you and this place. Looking back at early trades I made, I so often ask myself WTF was I thinking, and that is testament to all I've learned here.
Best,
Peter
Peter
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:39:00 AM
As a worrier by nature... but hardly ever when I trade. Go figure... I worry that the blog may become somewhat sterile without some of the banter. I don't think you can ever please everybody but if we can follow 90% trading and 10% banter that would be cool. It seems like the majority of people would like another room for chatting, so... majority usually rules, right?
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 11:40:00 AM
I so appreciate all the time you must devote to this blog and the Marketcast. I was not making any money until I found you and Eric on the MC. Then I was told about your blog and have begun to profit.
Trading is a foreign country to me. However, your style of trading and explanation make it understandable (to some degree).
I don't have time to read the comments, but I benefit greatly form your opinions on stocks, how they might move, how you enter and exit, and your watchlist.
I just discovered the archived topics and the book recomendations.
If the blog changes or you no longer head the MC, please let me know where I can continue to benefit from your experience.
Forever a newbie,
Steph
OKC
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:44:00 AM
I agree with Brett's take. Reduce the banter and focus more on trading. An 85/15 split sounds good.
That said, I will also try to lurk less and contribute more, and I challenge the other lurkers to do the same.
Posted by Sam_H | 10/26/2007 11:44:00 AM
Look at your site several times a day. Look forward to Tuesday's. Never read the comments. You provide excellent input and ideas. Thank you. If the comments were specific to trading, I might read them.
Posted by Ed Josten | 10/26/2007 11:45:00 AM
Jeff,
My opinions.
1. I respect everyone's opinion but not if they leave it without even a signature. Stand up for what you believe in and your opinions. When I leave trading ideas they all have my name behind them whether you agree with them or not.
2. Separate sections for banter and trading sounds fantastic. Those of us who are lucky enough to do this for a living do not have clients to deal with during the day so exterior banter with someone other than the dog is welcome.
3. I thank God everyday for answering my prayers by finding this community and you specifically. Seriously.
I'd like to talk about BNVI and their infusion of shares at a price way lower than it was trading at yesterday but I can't post that here. Can you start a new thread so we can also continue talking about trading?
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 11:46:00 AM
Jeff,
Thank you for all you do!
I believe you already know my thoughts since I emailed you about this last week. If you think it would be helpful to all concerned, I will cut and past my email to you.
The nutshell, I don’t have time to sift much and have by and large read comments from a three people to gain greater knowledge of trading and the psychology thereof. I personally don’t contribute like I did in the spring because I feel a complete disconnect from the majority of the daily banter. Sorry to all the people who contribute and have substance that I don’t read because I don’t have time to figure out what is good and what is not.
Happy teaching, learning and trading!
Posted by Logan | 10/26/2007 11:49:00 AM
You have got to love the these stocks to the upside... AAPl BEAV CNQR EMC FLIR HANS LIFC RIG RIMM SNDA SOHU
To the down side...
COH COLM CTX JWN LEN MTG PFCB SNDK
There are many more but Jeff it did help for you to point most of those out I just needed to find the entry points and follow my rules...I do other searches but seem to run out of time because you have so many ideas I just research those lately.. this site is great for what you made it to be.. trading wise I am impressed..
Posted by Califorina.Trader | 10/26/2007 11:49:00 AM
Yes, please bring back the focus to trading. When focused on trading this blog is extraordinarily valuable and desirable.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 11:49:00 AM
Jeff: Your blog is the best hands down. I enjoy your posts trading and non trading related, it makes me understand how another trader feels.
I especially enjoy hearing your perspective and how you react, it teaches me to be a better trader.
I also enjoy others people perspective on how they deal on losses and winnings as it makes you aware you arenot alone going through the same emotions.
I try to contribute as much as possible but long blogs and non trading related are hard for me to read. I am looking for new trades and watching charts.
I like and appreciate you putting your pesonal stuff as it makes this blog mor personable.
Thank you
Ps I did mention PBR back at 75 and EWZ as well, it was a one liner
Did you enjoy the Swordfish?
Posted by DavidS | 10/26/2007 11:50:00 AM
Liz,
You are right. I don't want the site to lose its personality. I want to be able to take jabs and receive them at the same time. Like I mentioned, it is that "happy place" I am looking for.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 11:52:00 AM
In from tree....
Jeff, the blog has changed. Growing Pains.
I have reduced my posts becasue I too am tired of the lengthy social psots. As much as I love to go at it with the PP, I just dont want to add to it anymore.
Silent Bystander, I do not like those that come in here and critisize from behind a mask, but I believe after re-reading, I believe your intent was good, and I over-reacted, so I owe you an apology for telling you to fuck off, so I apologize publicly...
I come to this blog to both learn, and help others learn. But having to read through useless trading posts, which has gotten out of hand most recently, I find myself posting less than I used too.
And new bloggers when they come here, they have no idea who's who. If erks me to see them take advice from those that ignored your previous post about being knowledgeable in what you offer...the person on the other side would appreciate it. Nuff said.
Come monday, It will be alright...
Posted by Raimo | 10/26/2007 11:56:00 AM
Jeff
POT is putting me back in a happy place today. Thanks for all you do for us Jeff.
It seems that roles are changing at IT. Fill us in when you can.
Posted by Sam_H | 10/26/2007 11:59:00 AM
Jeff, I am one of the lurkers. I have your blog up all the time at my office. I religiously read your comments but don't have the time to sift through all of the other comments for good ideas. I actually have a popup message in my outlook around 10am cst to open your blog. I am very excited about your new site.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 12:01:00 PM
Jeff,
I agree with you and you do take the jabs as well as the accolades, better than most.
Kim expressed it and I feel the same way, post a freakin' name! I take real issue with people who want to take anonymous jabs. If you can't stand behind what you're saying then you probably should not say it, or think of a nicer way to say it.
I take it anonymous benefits from the same trades that we do, the trades that you generously throw our way. And then anonymous comes here and lets loose with their grievances? If I cursed I would say WTF??
The content of the comment is not my issue, it's the anonymous part and the subsequent anonymous gang that has followed.
You know what I think of you and I am not about to gather all of my marbles and run off in a snit. This is still the best trading blog out there.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 12:02:00 PM
Hello-
I have been reading this blog daily for only about a month and a half and the banter doesn't really bother me however I do have the time to sift through most of the posts. This is how I've always experienced the blog.
I do scan for certain people's posts as they seem to have useful info that I can learn from.
To say I've learned from the blog would be an understatement. But have wondered if I would be able to find these trades if you weren't pointing them out, which is a concern. I'm not sure why you take the time, but thank you for your generosity.
I do like the community feel.
Whatever you decide to do, I'll keep reading. Thanks again.
Lara
Posted by lara | 10/26/2007 12:03:00 PM
I also had to stop reading the comments section a while ago because it took too long to separate the trading talk from the personal stuff.
Maybe the people that are chatting back and forth about personal issues could add each other on an instant messenger client such as MSN Messenger?
But I still get a lot of valuable information out of your posts, Jeff. I don't think their quality has been affected at all.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 12:07:00 PM
Last comment before I climb this tree,,,,,
Keep PTR on your radar. This breaks...a nice trade in the making..
(I am already in this, not REE, but anticapatory to the upside, so this is a bigger risk if u get in now..maybe u should wait for the break)
Also, not at my perfect REE, but I think a nice entry, LFC.....trade at your own risk.....(I love CHINA)
Posted by Raimo | 10/26/2007 12:12:00 PM
Jeff,
About a month or so ago you used the 20 day, 30 minute chart to clarify shorter term direction of the market and a position that you may be in. For the last month or so I have incorporated this process into my trading. Wow! That is all I have to say about how it has helped my trading because it helped solidify my thoughts on price action from a one year chart. It has also taken a TON of emotion out of my trading.
This approach helped me hedge with index options a couple weeks ago! Timing is key when you are going counter trend.
Thank you!
Posted by Logan | 10/26/2007 12:12:00 PM
Time & place...I think that is the issue. Obviously all of us come here for the same thing, to learn and share ideas. I think taking a lead from the addict is a good way to go, mostly trading related peppered with non trading things. I have found it a bit more difficult to wade through the posts lately due to addict on addict crime and non-trade related posts. What about people using yahoo messenger or msn for the social aspect of things instead? Facebook would work too, there could even be an option addict group!
Posted by Ryan in Cowtown | 10/26/2007 12:18:00 PM
Jeff, I believe this blog can make a great come back even stronger than before . I'm so happy to finally have this addressed. Once a blogger now a lurker. I've tried to interact, but it seems there are some who are too judgemental of my trades or ideas. Therefore, I decided to give it a break for a while. Would like to see less drama and more sharing of trading ideas that we all could benefit from. Thanks for asking for our opinions Jeff. Your humble student
Posted by optionfanatic | 10/26/2007 12:19:00 PM
Jeff
i agree that it is sometimes hard to filter through all the daily chatter to find a post with a little education in it. i am a person of limited free time, esp as of late, but i manage to scan and find the meat and filter over the chatter.
it is hard to manage a community of such size, you have an ever growing following and sometimes people get bored and get personal, thats just the way it is, sometimes it is annoying, but i feel lucky to have the blog to learn from.....THEREFORE I WOULD NEVER COMPLAIN...i have learned so much from you and the other bloggers....THE GOOD DEFINITELY OUT WEIGHS THE BAD.....
good luck coming to a solution....
for the record, i LOVE the blog and the bloggers
Posted by Tonya W | 10/26/2007 12:19:00 PM
Jeff,
i completely agree with the person who wrote the original comment. i used to participate on the blog and even mentioned that the comments section was out of hand. i would like to see only comments that include ticker symbols and/or trade set ups.
j.M
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 12:19:00 PM
As a long time OA member I'm adding my .02 to say that Brett and Liz post for me: 85% trade, 15% social.
I think if you had a separate social chat section, nobody would post in it after a while anyway.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/26/2007 12:24:00 PM
Jeff -
Email has been sent as per your request.
Raimo -
Accepted! Thanks! More in common than you know!
Laney -
I choose to not publish my name - not about me. I could make up a name and post that - what purpose? As for taking trade ideas here - No my friend - long past that I assure you. Jeff accomplished his work in me quite some time ago - I can now search, analyze, execute and manage my trades.
I wish you all the best and look forward to a new dawn on Monday with the debut of Jeff's New Look!!!
Happy Trading and Learning - The Best to you all!!!
Silent Bystander
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 12:28:00 PM
Raimo, I see your PTR ... and raise you SNP ... both in a similar pattern and both from the land on hte other side of the globe. I LOVE CHINESE especially
number 17 combo meal with the sweet and sour soup and egg roll.
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 12:29:00 PM
I agree, more trade talk. I don't really read comments anymore. Takes too long to sift out the grain from the chaff as they used to say on the farm.
Posted by SabreBill | 10/26/2007 12:32:00 PM
DG,
I attempted to respond to your trading question on MR in the last post, FWIW.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 12:40:00 PM
BIDU is breaking out of a cup and handle. This stock is amazing. Not quite SOHU amazing, but still amazing.
Posted by Brett | 10/26/2007 12:47:00 PM
Jeff,
I've been a "lurker" lately. But who can blame me the way my Red Sox and Patriots have been dominating their sports leagues!
I wanted to weigh in on this post. First, when I had time before the post was very refreshing to both have the banter and be educated by the community. Recently, basically due to job demands (will everyone please buy a home and get this industry back on its feet so I can breathe again!) I have faded into the background. I only take the time to read your posts and not the comments.
I have found that as a casual trader with a full-time job the spot-on analysis that you do is very helpful. I fish for those ideas that you have pre-selected to determine which ones fit my rules and trading style.
There is no question that I am capable of finding my own trades. I have several watch lists and most weekends load up the thumbnail charts and see if I find any of my own that I like. However, why not use the resources of an expert??? When I had the time I also greatly appreciated the comments of other bloggers who were clearly becoming experts through your community.
To our anonymous blogger who felt the need to trash this blog in the process of sharing some constructive direction (read critism if you prefer), sometimes people need "training wheels" to get them to stay upright before they can do it on their own. I am a benefactor of using Jeff as my training wheels. I'm now riding on my 1 speed - can't wait to upgrade to my 3 speed!!
Take care all.
Gary
Boston
Posted by Gary D | 10/26/2007 12:53:00 PM
Jeff,
I have loved following along with your blog for the last couple of months. I have learned a lot from you and many of the OAs. With that said, I will admit that the chatter gets overwhelming at times. But I continue to sit back here quietly, learning as much as I can and ask questions when I need to. My goal is to not only make money, but to be confident enough to contribute to the blog someday.
On a side note: I really miss you and Eric on the Marketcast.
Thanks again for all of the time you put into sharing your knowledge with us.
Posted by Lisa | 10/26/2007 12:58:00 PM
Brett-
Is it a very tiny c&h? Or are you looking at a longer term chart?
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 12:58:00 PM
Liz,
MAybe the one day chart?
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 01:04:00 PM
OA's - does anyone want to talk about DRYS. Is oil gonna drive down maritime shipping stocks or what? I bought in for the second time during this lag assuming it will jump up another 10-15 points. Sell if it goes below 120?
Thanks,
Norcal
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:05:00 PM
OAs,
I understand where everyone is coming from with regards to the banter. I am the first to recognize my own healthy part in much of the banter of late. Often times, when I would post non trade-related comments, I would get feedback that some found the comments amusing. In this, I think I just assumed that everyone found it amusing. Unfortunately, as I see now, that was not the case. So to those of you who were more frustrated than amused by this, my apologies. It was certainly not my intention to frustrate anyone to the point that they would completely ignore the comments altogether, and I’m very sorry to hear that many people did. Again, my sincerest apologies…
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 01:06:00 PM
Here's a stock with a long-term up trend, F/E score of 3.38, price pattern of 4.0, yadda, yadda, yadda. It was trading at $125 a share a few days ago, now WCG at $33, an organic 1-4 stock split. And stock investors say options are dangerous. Ha!
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 01:09:00 PM
Great blog, but agree with less banter. Plenty of other places to do that. One suggestion, this white on black background is an eye killer, I can't get through the posts often for that reason.
Thanks for what you do for us.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:10:00 PM
Laney-
Checked out the 1 Day, 5 Minute chart. Can see it there. Thanks!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 01:10:00 PM
Krystal
We're all big girls and boys here. If someone had a problem they should have contacted you instead of resorting to scolding and name-calling.
No apology necessary from you, in my opinion.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 01:12:00 PM
Thanks, Laney... I was feeling pretty crummy...
:)
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 01:14:00 PM
Krystal,
I do not think an apology from you was necessary. Almost everyone of us has posted non-trading topics on this blog and it is part of the charm of this site. The blog is experiencing growing pains because it has become so popular. I must say I learn a lot from the personal comments and that in turn helps me to evaluate the advice that person volunteers. This blog would not be the same without some personal input. Anyway, you seem hurt and you should not. We all will find that happy medium and all will be right again in the Shire.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 01:16:00 PM
Norcal-
DRYS looks like it's consolidating. It has been on a tear for awhile.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 01:16:00 PM
Jeff .. thanks for bringing this content matter to the forefront.
Much has already been shared ..but what is interesting are the NEW NAMES that showed up when you asked for direction. We know there are lurkers who probably want to be 'non-lurkers' and would join us more if there wasn't so much 'social banter'. You got quick results already on that idea. Thanks to all for the comments!
I think separation of trader and social comments would be best... but if they remain together, I'm with the 85 trader - 15 social group.
I have about 10 people I follow who post this blog. I can go through 200 posts in about 10 minutes because that is all I look for. They are traders who have good eyes, good chart skills and are showing some success (after reading this thing for a while - you will know who gets it and who doesn't) ...My day is made reading these folks and I don't miss a day on this blog reading it. How nice it would be if the majority of the posts were trading oriented .. Time here would be better spent.
I support you Jeff and what you do here. Growing pains is right Raimo .. this IS the place on the web to blog and trade! Thanks for all you do Jeff to make it that way!
Posted by Benton | 10/26/2007 01:17:00 PM
Jeff,
These blogs are great, but they almost aren't set up for back and forth discussion simply because of the format.
My suggestion would be a "forum" this is one that I am member of, all it does is utilize the v bulletin software, but I find it fairly nice.
Anyone who wants to check out the format can, specifically you Jeff, however it sounds like you already have your setup.
www.forums.nasioc.com/forums
You could set up something similar for "Off Topic" discussion, which oddly enough has the most people on it at all times, this is simply because I think of the nature of the bloggers, they like reading something new and having something to constantly check.
This blog is already fairly well organized for what you can do and have tried to mimic it on my own in the event people actually read it, lol.
As far as content goes, I agree with the statement that content has gotten off topic, however I disagree with the percentage split proposed. The whole point of this blog is trading, but is also used for a social outlet for many.
I love technical and trading discussions, I think we just need organization.
I urge people to look at that car forum and weigh in, I mean we could have different sections maybe one for the weekly watchlist where thsoe stocks are discussed, a place to ask about technical analysis and discuss patterns, have a newbie section with your archives that covers all your past content you want read before people can ask questions, not to mention all the lingo used, and obviously have an off topic forum that maybe restricts trading talk.
I guess I love seeing Jeff participate and I am sure you have gotten more busy doing things, or maybe we are just not coming with good neough questions. I would ask tons of questions but I don't want to always be taking for free and adding to the many emails you already get.
Alright I am losing train of thought here, haha I gave some input though.
Just to be clear though overall this blog is the best thing and the single resource I feel needed to learn how to trade.
Ben
Posted by Ben | 10/26/2007 01:18:00 PM
Norcal:
DRYS and for that matter EXM are the only bulk shipping stocks down today. These also seem to have been the best performers in the last couple of months. I think some money in to these names DSX EGLE NM QMAR.
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:21:00 PM
Krystal-
We've all (okay, maybe not all) posted non-trading topics. I know I have. I think Sean M. is right. This site is going through some serious growing pains as of late. There's a lot more people then there use to be. A lot! Whenever any community or family grows it takes a bit of tweaking and adjustment for the majority of people to feel comfortable. I'm sure as Raimo puts it "anonymouse" wasn't directing all his comments at you. You're funny and helpful and you have a big personality. We'll all adjust including me the worrier who doesn't like change except in options-- like BIDU going higher!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 01:23:00 PM
Liz,
Do you watch the intraday charts? ZUMZ is really interesting today. I see an ascending triangle and a bull flag, one right after the other.
I just started looking at them after Jaime(?) mentioned them. Apologies if it was not Jaime.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 01:26:00 PM
OH! I feel better now...! :)
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 01:27:00 PM
I'm all for less banter in the comments and more serious, thoughtful feedback to questions posed either in the main post or in the comments.
My posts have become far fewer and I visit less as the chatter has gone up and obscured trading themes.
Desipte this there are nuggets of gold on this site. I just prefer to not have to sift so hard to find them all.
Posted by Mike | 10/26/2007 01:27:00 PM
I adore this site, but I have to admit that sometimes it's a daunting task to keep up with all the comments. I don't post much for that reason (I want to leave space for you traders who have so much to offer). However, I think of myself more as the serious student taking notes in the corner than a kleptomaniac lurker. ;)
I think probably we could do with a little less social chatter, but I would so miss the humor - and since we're growing as a community, there are more very funny people who are contributing.
Krystal, don't take offense - you've done just as many others of us have done. We've all needed occasional reminders of the importance of remaining focused.
I've enjoyed and would miss the banter between you and Chris, just as I would (will?) miss Raimo and PP's poetry, TAFKAA's twisted sense of humor, etc etc.
Many we can work to keep it in line - 85/15, as Brett suggested.
This has been a great week. . . accounts all recovered and then some (thanks to all you preachers of patience). I obsessively reviewed every chart and chewed my fingernails but hung onto everything that didn't look broken. Thanks to you all - this is a fantastic community.
Now . . . I'll be heading back to the corner where I can study in peace.
Lori
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:29:00 PM
Jeff,
Also I have to say I love getting specifics, and I can understand maybe not wanting to totally give away for free(even though you pretty much do and I can't thank you enough) skills that have taken 10 years to develop, but posts like the previous one where you talk about what you are looking for an watching specifically I find helpful because I can then file that away for future use and also watch that to help. I know you want us to be able to function on our own and that is my goal obviously as well, however having this blog is a benefit to everyone because we have multiple people seeing things I may not be watching and vice versa.
Like I would love to know how you are formulating your screens or how anyone is to find setups etc, since I unfortunately don't have Investools software I am trying to learn what criteria to search for that will possibly yield good setups.
I just like to hear specific thought process of a pro, that is worth paying for like I said before, and maybe you have that in the works.
Just a few more thoughts, sorry I know I am in no position to say anything because you already give so much but I am just saying what I love reading and seeing here.
Ben
Posted by Ben | 10/26/2007 01:29:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 01:32:00 PM
I think Raimo brought this topic up a while back. I, for one, have tried to stick to trading. A few personal comments are okay. But I agree that we need to focus on trading. Going through all the posts takes a lot of time.
Thanks, Jeff, for moving us up to a new level.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:33:00 PM
JCG is testing my patience today. And my profits.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 01:34:00 PM
I made a $5,000 mistake today. Yesterday I had to show up for work (I do that every now and then so they remember who signs their paychecks) and I wasn't paying attention to earnings. I usually watch the market and reduce position size a day or so before earnings. I had puts on COLM and it went down today. Good news you say? Well sure, I made more than I should have BUT I BROKE MY RULES. One of the worst things you can do is be rewarded for breaking your rules. 'Cause you'll just do it again and get burned. I'll put the 5 g's towards coaching Jeff, if you're still planning on offering it.
NAVZ was also a good size non-earnings related loser today if you are looking for a put trade to balance out your bullish positions.
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 01:36:00 PM
Ben brought up a good idea with the Forum format, I think. Some suggestions for topics could be:
current setups - this could be a watchlist and/or stocks that are currently doing something submitted by us users.
general trading education - lessons from the master himself
blog (forum) education - definitions of blog terminology
social interaction
The forum format should also help you from having to start new threads all the time and would allow easy access to the type of information that one of us is looking for in a timely manner (equals happier readers).
This is such a great site and I personally appreciate all you do Jeff to help people like me master this crazy market thing.
Posted by Scoot | 10/26/2007 01:37:00 PM
CRNT, flagging...if you consider 10/22 as the flag pole.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 01:38:00 PM
Laney-
I don't usually watch the one day charts. If I'm on the line about a stock because of recent price action I'll zoom in even closer but for the most part, no. Honestly, I forget sometimes. Even though I'm here most the day I'm still chasing children around so my analysis is done at lightening speeds.
But ZUMZ does look interesting today.
All my puts are pushing at their exits today. And I've just become way too delta positive (thanks in part to BIDU!). I need to find a few more bearish plays.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 01:39:00 PM
Continued from my earlier post -
Perhaps even a "war stories/lessons learned" topic could be very valuable.
Posted by Scoot | 10/26/2007 01:40:00 PM
JOYG - breakout with volume
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:42:00 PM
Forget Puts on NAVZ, it's apparently been delisted.
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 01:42:00 PM
Liz- What do you consider to be "too" delta positive? I've been struggling with the whole relative-ness of this topic. My ira is currently 305 and my margin is almost the same. I don't think I'm delta positive enough if we continue the bull market.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 01:43:00 PM
my .02 --
there is a bit too much banter of late. Enjoyable, but with a job I just don't have time to sift through it all, so I find myself often using the search key for specific posters (e.g., Raimo, Brett) or Tickers.
All said, without the community, it just wouldn't be the same. I don't see a way to really separate the two into two "rooms" as the family would be lost.
As a thought -- maybe Tim could rig up something that would alter the font size (or put a star) on Trading comments so they are easily recognizable with a quick scroll through. Or maybe a sidebar where you could enter the ticker symbols you're commenting on to make those stand out for someone looking specifically for certain stocks. ??
Mostly, this blog is such a tremendous learning tool for me that if I have to put up with lots of "useless" banter, it's still worth it.
THANKS TO ALL OF YOU, ESP. JEFF !!
cindy a
ps -JK your mention yesterday kept me in SYNA. and HANS MTL and CLB are working for me today!
ditto Raimo "Come Monday ... it'll be alright"
Posted by ca | 10/26/2007 01:45:00 PM
I agree with the forum concept. It's much more conducive to multiple topics and threads rather than this single-threaded blog. Or perhaps, keep the blog strictly to 100% trading comments and have a separate forum for those who wish to take the discussion elsewhere.
It is ironc though that this post has elicited more new comments from "lurkers" than any other post.
Posted by Matt | 10/26/2007 01:45:00 PM
I ditto what Lori said!
And Stan, don't stop posting your ideas. I always look over others ideas to see if they fit my rules, and I learn so much studying this way.
Thanks to all for the BEST BLOG of learning and direction.
KELLY
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 01:47:00 PM
Liz,
OK. The relative word did not come out right. I know the topic is VERY relative. I'm talking about a delta of zero vs. a delta of 100 vs. a delta of 1000 vs. a delta of -1000.
How delta positive is too positive? How delta negative is too negative?
I had a discussion with TOS about this very subject today.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 01:47:00 PM
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ PUBLIC APOLOGY @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
I just got in from setting up for the fund raiser... to this maelstrom on a familiar topic. I haven't had time to read all the posts (which I guess is the reason for "The Posting." I have been a big contributor on a level that has not, by a long shot, been all on trading. Recently my posts have dropped in trading percentages and I apologize. I enjoy writing and I've been on vacation the last two weeks and taken my love of writing out on all of you.
I will find an outlet elswhere and get back to business. The way this blog was meant to be.
And on that note MDC has played into my hands perfectly. After jumping way up this morning it has pulled back to exactly my support line. I'm down substantially today on it (but up HUGE on everything else) but I'm holding on because it hasn't broken the trend.
Don't know why DRYS and EXM are down today but my NM is up over 6%. For once in my life I'm on the right side of this.
Patience has paid off today, big time. Thanks to all who post with their names. The others I don't care about.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/26/2007 02:02:00 PM
Kim-
I'm still figuring the whole thing out myself compared to just using a ratio method like 2 calls to 1 put, etc. which is what I was using before. At the moment it is acting as a gauge to see how balanced my portfolio is. I'm thinking a combo of both is what's going to work for me. I don't know how helpful that was... but maybe a little more insight?
liz
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 02:06:00 PM
VABG- Jeff said he never goes beyond being 75% bullish. If you want to follow his rules and you have a delta of 300 you should have a negative delta of 100 that reduces your delta of 400 down to 300 in a very bullish market. When the market becomes overbought because "Everyone" is buying and you start hearing stock tips from the grocery store bagger, the you'll want to increase your negative deltas by either buying puts, selling calls, shorting stocks or selling stocks and options you own.
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 02:07:00 PM
C2,
absolutely no apology needed in my opinion,,love your humor ,,,,and you do contribute to the trading ideas
Posted by sue | 10/26/2007 02:09:00 PM
Jeff
I was constantly logged on to this site. You and this site have changed my trading style and my financial picture for the better. As of late the blog has lost its importance in my trading day. The posts about the tooth fairly, TV shows, someone whining about being picked on have replaced intelligent and serious discussions regarding trading. Look at the number of new people that have responded to this letter. I could not agree more that a few people have turned this into their own personal chat room looking for companionship or some conversion and it doesn’t matter to them if its trading related or not. For those people instance messing is a great idea. Let’s get back to making money.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 02:10:00 PM
Chris,
I was waiting for you to get back. Things changed a bit while you were gone. I will repeat to you what I said to Krystal and that is that you should not apologize. You always contribute and I have had some of my best laughs reading your posts. I will be disappointed if you get serious on me. Remember.....Happy Medium.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 02:11:00 PM
BNVI
If you're in this, you should be receiving extra shares to compensate for the new price and share issuance. Just spoke with TOS.
If you already knew this then excuse my ignorance.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 02:23:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 02:26:00 PM
WCG $115 put on 10/24 $4.60
WCG $115 put on 10/25 $72.00
WCG $115 put on 10/26 $82.90
How's that for making your whole trading year? That would be a 1702% return. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 02:33:00 PM
Please, Please, Please...
Don't think that this conversation is directed at anyone specifically. Please. Any contributions are valued, and welcome, but moreso in the direction of trading.
If you haven't read this blog for too long, we address this problem every so often. For my long time readers, I am tempted to play some Barney to make the mood right.
As far as feedback, I have enough here to run with, and I am happy that we had the conversation today. Let's grow from it and form a stronger group.
Feel free to carry on with trade related comments, and thanks again to everyone who chimed in. I want you all to feel welcome here, and heard for that matter.
I hope I am ready to start with a clean slate on Monday. Your concerns, feedback and suggestions have all been heard, and I think I will have a good product for everyone.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 02:33:00 PM
Thanks Jeff,
Looking forward to Monday.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 02:36:00 PM
Sorry, Jeff.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 02:37:00 PM
VA Beach Girl, I am in BNVI. I did not know that and what exactly does that mean?
KELLY
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 02:37:00 PM
Jeff
Your post on the blog are great. I really enjoy and learn from the vidoe's and educational information. I still trade my own watch list which happens to have some of the stocks you talk about.
I find the most value in your interpretation of the charts and your entry and exit thoughts. I use those along with interpretations from other instructors at Investools to help continue to develop my own skills and style. On the comment section, I rarely ever read them unless you've indicated we need to for some reason such as today. To me, the chatter is usually overwhelming and generally not worth the time to read. I agree that some separate sections would be better although it could cost you time in managing more of them and making sure folks are posting to the proper one.
Posted by John Kevan | 10/26/2007 02:41:00 PM
Wow.. just think if we put this much time into trading.. Where would our accounts be? EVERYONE not just a select few would be hanging out on the beach drinking fancy mixed drinks watching the surf and just looking at all the zero's behind their account. Food for thought...
Jeff
Multiple threads would most likely be the best way to handle this situation which I have said way in the past that way you can satisfy everyone's needs. Our expressive personalities can communicate as much as they want and that’s great. Our driver’s can come get the information add something and get on with their life, our amiable can make sure everyone is okay and our analytical can have the numbers and introduce the numbers and patterns they see. Remember our goal should be a great attitude high enthusiasm a solid mindset to follow our plan and rules and discipline ourselves not to liquidate our trades early. Then blow off steam in the social section talk about life cooking weekends everything and anything. Everyone have a great weekend and hopefully life for me here in the OC gets back to normalcy not fire truck ripping by every ten seconds wondering what’s next. This is a community and melting pot and we can learn from experiences ideas to make us better traders a better person and be able to give back because that is what it is all about. Jeff you are a great model also Bob and Brett your ideas are not overlooked by no means and we as a group should try to replicate your trading discipline and to all those with great ideas make sure you speak out let the others hear them and for you lurkers myself included let’s work on donating more when ever possible to make this site even better than it is.. Jeff you are very much appreciated for what you do and the ideas that you show us are great and I hope this site grows stronger as a community and hold each other accountable to a higher standard..
Posted by Califorina.Trader | 10/26/2007 02:43:00 PM
Jeff-
Thanks for your patience and for continually striving to make this a better place. You are a great teacher/mentor and I feel so honored to have found this site when I did. Have a great weekend and I sincerely look forward to the great changes you are planning on making.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 02:43:00 PM
I've been lurking here for months now and was wondering if someone could explain to me how you know when there will be a trend reversal. Almost every long term trending stock I bought an option on reversed it's trend a few days later.
Any pointers on what to look for?
Thanks in advance!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 02:44:00 PM
Denise,
Can you give a few examples... what ticker symbols did you play in the past that reversed on you? Also, when did you enter and exit?
Maybe we can spot some reversal signals in them!
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 02:49:00 PM
Denise-
Have you checked out some of Jeff's archives? Start with the one listed "What Is Weakness" and "Pattern Failure". That will give you a nice start. Jeff also had a thread today talking about what he looks for in regards to the market making a reversal. Don't remember the title to that one. Another question... was it really a "trend reversal" or just a pullback? Maybe some examples of what you were in and when would help others give you a better answer.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 02:54:00 PM
Krystal, Chris and anyone else who feels put down:
I know I, for one, wasn't talking about anyone in particular, and I am sure that no one else was either.
Its just with numerous people posting about non-trading stuff, the trading stuff kind of gets lost in the shuffle.
Quit feeling bad, I doubt anyone was thinking about either of you (or anyone else in particular) when we were talking about too much banter.
I even thought the poems were cute for awhile, until several people started doing it often, then it became cumbersome to read through.
My point is DO NOT GET YOUR FEELINGS HURT. You both have valuable things to contribute, and no one wants you to stop. The community has grown, and with lots of people posting non-trading comments a bunch ... it turns into a scroll-fest sometimes to find stock info.
That is all any of us are saying. I am glad both of you are here.
That being said BOOM, DECK, WFR, RIO, AAPL, POT for the win.
Two good earnings rounds in a row!
Oh wait ------> AMZN (myeh - can't win em all).
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/26/2007 03:09:00 PM
James H., thanks for your kind comments. I wasn't feeling put down, per se, but I was a little disappointed because I felt that I had been contributing to the frustration and exasperation of others. That really did have me feeling a little down. I mean, really, look at how many lurkers chimed in when this topic came up! This is obviously very important to people!
I think that this site should benefit ALL participants, and I feel that I was part of a distraction. And I really didn't mean to be.
But I am excited about the new look.. BOY AM I EXCITED! I just know it's gonna be awesome! If only Monday would hurry up and get here!... :)
Now, will our boy Kohler be on the 'Cast tonight?... Only time will tell!
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 03:18:00 PM
Stan,
Thanks for responding to my question. It is helpful. I guess I just question how bullish/bearish I am overall and I'm trying to use Jeff's recent post on the topic to my trading benefit. For instance, if I'm delta neutral and all (most) of my trades go the way I've intended then my profit/loss column on the day should in theory be about neutral.
BTW, I like your posts but they are sometimes too aggressive for my trading style. But I appreciate your posting your winners and losers; even those that are winners that shouldn't have been like your post about COLM today. Just call it a happy accident and use the new money wisely.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 03:21:00 PM
Denise,
1. Are you a IT subscriber? If so do you have access to any of the trading rooms?
2. Read the Murphy Technical analysis book if you haven't, it helps a ton - especially the first third of the book for the particular info you are asking about. (Trends, Price Patterns, Volume)
3. Learn to watch volume - If your stock is in what you think of as a continuation pattern, and the volume is the opposite of what it should be = keep a close eye on the stock.
For example, if you are playing what you believe to be an ascending triangle and the volume is much heavier on the down swings, and much lighter on the up moves = warning (it should be the opposite UP vol. > DOWN vol. with both types of swings reducing in volume as the resistance line and trendline get closer to each other). That second or third hit on the resistance line could well form a double/triple top. You get the picture - watch volume & price action = much quicker indicators than MACD/stochastic etc.
Email me if you like with specific questions and I'll be glad to pass on what I know and which sources I use/read. I'm no Jeff/Brett/Raimo but I'll be glad to share.
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/26/2007 03:22:00 PM
Kelly,
Hi! BNVI. Think of it as similar to a stock split. You'll get extra shares to compensate for the drop in price. Basically you're not being penalized for the company issuing new shares at a lower price. Hope this helps.
Consequently, I bought another 100 shares at this new price. Why not?
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 03:23:00 PM
Krystal & Liz,
The one I was really surprised about was NYX. I bought on 9/12. The stock closed at 69.45. What did I miss?
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 03:25:00 PM
VA Beach girl. Where did you come up with WCG? I thank the lucky stars that I wasn't in this one (especially as a stock... which I was at one point.) This is a perfect example of why we need to stay well diversified. I was starting to think that I might cut back on the total number of trades I was in... to keep it easier to keep track of. But this is exactly why that would be a bad idea. Today's volume was a 1,725% change from normal. And yesterday was even higher volume on an even bigger drop.
HO...
LEE...
CRAP...
BATMAN.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/26/2007 03:28:00 PM
For those who are concerned about getting their Delta's some what nuetral. I have a Delta of 3373.64 right now with a Theta + 130.00. That means I'll make 260.00 over the weekend witout the stock mkt. open. I still feel some what protect to a downside if the go down next week. I have alot of spreads sell alot of crappy calls and puts and cover alot of stock positions incase of pullbacks. I feel that is all the insurance I need. I feel being long with puts can be counter productive if the Market rallys against you. Just my opinion!
Posted by optionfanatic | 10/26/2007 03:29:00 PM
The conversation as of late feels like people are just looking for trades to take and make money off of. What I value the most on this blog are the learning experiences coming from the interaction of the inexperienced and the experienced traders. These do not always come with a ticker symbol next to the post. This blog is not just for trading ideas but methodologies. The conversations don't always seem so trade related but "how to" related. Not every trader has a support network and people to bounce ideas off of. I feel like the anonymous people who are griping here are looking for a free lunch within the comments. This is one of the few places in the trading world where you can get the education for free.
Dan, aka "VA Beach Girl's handsomer half"
P.S. Kim is typing this. The views here are not necessarily those of VA Beach Girl or any other authority.
Posted by CPT 1 LOT | 10/26/2007 03:39:00 PM
Jeff,
I am one of the quiet ones on your site who is going to provide feedback per your request.
I love YOUR content. I only read YOUR posts. Frankly, I sift through all the comments looking for your responses (thank you for being able to highlight your responses) because I don't have time to read through all of the comments. I would be more interested in reading others' comments if those can somehow be highlighted as trade related comments.
I especially get annoyed at anything that is not trade related. I come to this site to learn. I do however appreciate your sense of humor that you end each post which gives me a chuckle at the end of the day.
I am very grateful to you for all that you have shared on this blog. I have learned so much and have profited from your awesome watchlists. Thank you very much.
Please keep me informed where we can view the new website.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 03:42:00 PM
Chris,
Don't change. I love ya, man! In a trading way, of course. I tried to e-mail you earlier today but you don't have an e-mail address associated with your blogger identity.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 03:42:00 PM
Hey everyone. One thing I think we could all work on to help the situation is to keep our comments as short as possible. I am just as guilty as anyone of not editing myself down. If we all said about 50% less, that would cut out a lot of fluff. You can say a lot with a little.
Posted by Tim | 10/26/2007 03:43:00 PM
Ben,
You asked about where to search/research for trading ideas. You can purchase just the Investools website for a monthly fee. Everything is all in one place for like, $50 a month. Isn't the investment worth it? The risk/reward seems pretty good to me. Just one trade from Jeff's watch list can pay for the whole year. Check to see if they have a 30 day free trial or something.\
Just trying to help...Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 03:47:00 PM
VBGA said:
"For instance, if I'm delta neutral and all (most) of my trades go the way I've intended then my profit/loss column on the day should in theory be about neutral."
No- if all (most) of your trades go the way you intended your profits will be UP, your losses will be DOWN. Here's an example of how that works where most but not all trades go your way.
Option 1 calls 100 delta goes up $1 making you $100.
Option 2 calls 100 delta goes up $1 making you $100.
Option 3 calls 100 delta goes down $1 losing you $100.
Option 4 puts -100 delta go down $1 making you $100.
Option 5 puts -100 delta go down $1 making you $100.
Option 6 puts -100 delta go up $1 losing you $100.
A perfectly delta neutral account (+300 and -300= 0) with four winners and two losers made you $200.
The goal is not necessarily to be delta neutral. If you are bullish on the market you want to lean towards the bullish trades and if the market is bearing down lean on the bearish trades. The take home point is that in all markets there are good stocks and lousy stocks and if we play the both sides we are insuring ourself against the ever present danger of a trend reversal.
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 03:52:00 PM
Denise,
NYX. If you were in on 9/12, based on my trendlines and my 1% stop above the trend line I would have been out of that trade toward the close of 9/20. I was in this trade on 8/28 and got stopped out intraday on 9/4. I'm not using hard stops any longer so I probably would have been in this trade along with you until 9/20.
Do you have your trade planned from start to finish prior to pushing the send button to getting in? Just because the trade failed doesn't mean that your analysis was wrong. Mine failed. I moved on to the next trade. The only part you are able to control is your maximum risk. Jeff preaches this always.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 03:54:00 PM
John,
I couldn't agree more about the 20day chart on $SPX. I love this thing. It gives a good view of what may be in the wind for the next trading day. And the $VIX, too.
VA... thanks. I went back and looked, though, and I was out of line the last little while. Now, like a little kindergartener, I will get back in line so we can all get on with the business of learning. After all that is the purpose of the blog.
Optionfanatic, Boy... you cover all bases!! I would love to get into some of the protective stuff you're doing as I agree that simply buying puts can be counter productive. Although I must say that a lot of the puts mentioned on this site do well, even in a bull market.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/26/2007 03:59:00 PM
Stan,
Oh, please excuse the Monster Java Martini I've already had tonight. What you are saying is exactly what I was TRYING very unsuccessfully to say.
I'm an idgit soaked in Monster Java and vodka. And I like it. If you don't, anon, bite me. Post a ticker for us to look at and then I'll take you seriously.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:02:00 PM
Denise-
I agree with Kim as far as having a plan and sticking to that plan. I also would have been out of the trade on 9/20 and if for some reason I hadn't gotten out of the trade on 9/20, I definitely would have been out of the trade on 9/21. Sometimes your analysis can be spot on and the trend changes. As long as you're sticking with your plan you should be fine.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 04:05:00 PM
C2, I understand you feel like you are posting too much banter. However, how many times over Jeff's last several posts have you seen an anonymous "thank you" from all of the anons? Enter crickets chirping.....
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:08:00 PM
Optionfanatic- I can't agree more that selling crap and building a hefty theta bottom line makes every day pay day. I like selling way out of the money strangles too. GOOG's earnings came out the day before option expiration and I made pretty good change betting it wouldn't go more than 50 points in one direction or another. IV was way up and I only needed to be in the trade for 3 days. I like selling puts on big up trending stocks before earnings such as AAPL. Just put them at a price point further out then they've ever been been before. Easy money, lots of theta. Just don't do it on a stock like WCG!
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 04:13:00 PM
Ok, I will be the jerk here.
We don't know a lot about optionfanatic do we? He/she does not post often and we know little about him/her. I know Chris is a pilot (probably responsible), Brett is a full time trader (probalbly committed) and Raimo is a hunter(probably republican). I don't know much about optionfanatic ( no offense buddy). He could be a Nobel Lauriate or he could be in a WiFi homeless center trading in his underwear or worse. If we don't share some personal info. we don't have a way to evaluate each other! Look at Beannie. All we know about beannie is that he is a loose Corgi that lives on his back. Let's realize the need for improvement and compromise. We could easily pick on every lurker that reads every post and never chimes in. When they do, who can give them any credence? I would like this blog to keep some of it's personality and some of it's personal comments. I learn to trust or distrust people this way. How can anyone not sense the sincerity of Krystal, Bob, Chris, Michelle, DG etc. or their pain in having to deal with the real world and the demands of trading part time. Let's stay personal (85/15%) and keep the loneliness of trading alone at bay.
Jeff, I imagine you are employed at Investools because of the interaction with other professional that you enjoy. When you realize 285% returns, you really don't have to answer to anyone. We all want that but I still would like the personal interaction that this blog brings. None of us have the face to face that you have that allows you to trust other traders. Banter brings that to me and I think to this blog. Let's keep it personal but controlled. Just my $.02.
Love this blog!
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 04:15:00 PM
Dan-
I have to say that I think you make some great points. Today a lot of the comments especially from the anonymous bloggers seem to border on take and leave. That's not contributing. And there's a lot more that goes on here than posting ticker symbols. It's a "learning" website. There's a lot of new traders here (I still consider myself a newbie) and if all we did was post ticker symbols, I know, for one, I wouldn't have learned as much as I have from this website. That's why I put my vote out there for balance.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 04:21:00 PM
Liz,
B-E-A-UTIFUL. Spot on.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:25:00 PM
Liz,
My last comment was on your comment to Denise. B-E-Autiful.
Sean,
If you're the jerk then I'm the bitch. Fine with me. I resemble that comment.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:31:00 PM
Kim-
How many HANS beverages have you had? I want some. Even though this week wasn't a "bad" week, I definitely need to go back to the drawing room.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 04:38:00 PM
Stan,
You have me intrigued about being Theta bottom heavy. I'm going to have to read up on this one.
Sean,
Optionfanatic is a frequent enough poster here that I welcome the posts. Keep them coming. At least he has a spine and signs his name to his ideas/comments.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:38:00 PM
I mean "board". I don't even need any drinks, I can't think anyway.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 04:38:00 PM
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend. Just like in trading, every day is a new day so I look forward to Monday and any new changes that may come about.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/26/2007 04:41:00 PM
WARNING: PERSONAL POST
I deleted my last comment because it was mean and I don't like to be mean.
Dan,
Spot-on post. I trade all by myself. No trading group. No mastermind group (unless you count my 3 year old). No one but me and the named people on this blog and then I don't feel so alone.
I try to be as brief as possible like Tim said. Great reminder Tim!
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 04:42:00 PM
Liz,
One...heavy on the vodka. With a Smirnoff Ice to wash it down.
This is not making me braver. My opinion remains my opinion.
On a TRADING NOTE...this week for me was mostly about setting up new trades for the long haul. Taking the bullish bounces as trend trades heading into the Santa Claus rally while complimenting with bearish plays for a complete picture. While the results this week don't necessarily speak volumes it's what I'm expecting to see on Dec. 31 that counts.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 04:43:00 PM
I think I love you, Kim. :-)
I did the same thing. After my unwarranted panic last Friday and the hard lessons learned I headed into this week with a new outlook.
Stan,
I am interested in the Theta bottom, too. Can you point me in a direction?
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 04:47:00 PM
VABG, Laney- Anytime you sell an option it deteriorates each day, becoming less valuable. If you sell lots of lousy out of the money options on trending stocks you have a pretty good chance of keeping that premium. Multiply that by as many contracts as you can comfortably handle and you will see the Theta pile up in your favor, paying you every day, even on Sunday. You can do this directionally or with spread trades. Use the TOS probability tab along with support, resistance, price action and trend and you have yourself a High Probability trading class and saved yourself six grand to trade with.
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 04:56:00 PM
Kim,
We all love you. One big happy, love fest here. Why? Many reasons but this week was exactly the same for me. I took a sound thrashing on Friday and a worse one on Monday. I almost panicked, but did not. Instead I slowly, mythodically, pieced together my next leg up. It took 3 days to come to fruition but today was worth the wait. A neutral week for me and I'm all set for... as you put it... the Santa Clause rally.
Now I'm off to raise money for Sick Kid's Hospital this evening. Have a great weekend everyone. Monday will be a new beginning in many, many ways.
Drink heavily.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/26/2007 04:56:00 PM
I thought I goofed up my computer. Jeff must be working behind the scenes tweaking his blog site. Looks better already.
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/26/2007 04:58:00 PM
Kim, saw your post about MR (I'm still in it, partly because I wasn't here long enough to re-evaluate my trades before the close). Also on JCG - I got out yesterday when it hit 34something. That was my target, and it was a great and profitable trade. It had almost 2 weeks of down days in a row.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/26/2007 04:59:00 PM
Stan,
When we were in Orlando I saw a bit of TOS but they didn't have a Canadian version, so I didn't pay a lot of attention (Attention Deficit R Us) but I was blown away by the whole probability thing that they have. You're obviously using it successfully. Nice to hear from someone who's trading a different style.
Thanks for your input.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/26/2007 05:00:00 PM
I re-read the anon's original post and here my thoughts,
"the only thing leeches do is suck"
Here is a challenge for you anon.
1. Provide a helpful comment to a newbie to further their trading education.
2. Support someone else...pay it forward. If you have received the benefit of Jeff paying it forward to you...pay it forward to someone else.
Otherwise....you remain....a leech. Enjoy the content.
SIGNED! Dan
Posted by CPT 1 LOT | 10/26/2007 05:02:00 PM
Sean,Just because I haven't Blog here recently means I can't express my opinion, Get real! I suppose you have cornered this Blog. By the way I have traded in my underwear, Does that make me a bad "Trader". I tried to open an forum about neutral delta's did that offend you?
My feeling about the market and how one trades shouldn't be canned to everyday trading. To be honest I'm having trouble finding good puts not that I'm against trading
them. I find a lot of trader are hedging for Financial's and Housing to go up if interest rates are cut next week. So tell me where are the good puts all mine seem to go up this week.
Posted by optionfanatic | 10/26/2007 05:05:00 PM
Stan,
At the risk of sounding like the slow kid in the back, what do you mean by lousy OTM options?
For example, if a stock is trading at 50 would you sell the 100 OTM call??
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 05:08:00 PM
Kim,
I agree about Optionfanatic and I was not pointing the finger and him/her,...although as I read my last post, it seemed like that. OF, my point was I do not know you well and you don't know me well and unless we exchange personal information, I have no way to evaluate your posts. This same thing could have applied to any other blogger that I do not know well. I apologize if I offended anyone.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 05:08:00 PM
Chris,
I have a non-trading related question for you regarding your childrens' hospital charity. Please e-mail me @ k.magruder@cox.net. When you get a chance, of course.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 05:11:00 PM
Option Fanatic,
I had the same problem with my puts. I had a feeling about SNDK yesterday, I thought it was too extended to the downside and got out, with my whole profit. Today ZUMZ (the broadening formation that we have been discussing) was up and even though I bought the December puts, I got out with a $20 loss. Not too bad thanks to Raimo and REE. I probably would have stayed if the Fed wasn't around the corner and you know about the rising tide floating all boats.
And FWIW I really don't think that Sean meant to be mean.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 05:17:00 PM
OF,
I was busy typing my last comment as you posted yours. I meant no ill will, just making a point that if we have no means of judging each other professionally, then we are no better off than TG's site or Tim Knight's site. You could make the same arguement about me and I would not be offended. I do not post a lot of useful content because until I make consistant money, I will evaluate others and learn. I am up significantly in the last month but that could be an aberation. When I am successful as a trader consistantly, I will post as a knowledgeable trader. Until then, I will try not to offend you further because it was not intended.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 05:20:00 PM
Sean,
No offense taken on my side. Just had to give credit to someone who is actually willing to sign his name to his opinions. I agree 100% with you about understanding a little of the background of the people whom you are conversing with.
For instance, anon could say...CRE...KNOW ABOUT IT! and that's supposed to mean "what" to me? Who the hell are they? Really...who the hell are you? Are you trying to put us in front of good trades? Or are you merely a spammer like Beannie....formerly known as Beannie11111.
As a wise man once said,"No one cares how much you know until they know how much you care".
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 05:22:00 PM
Sean, No apologies necessary, I suck at typing, spelling,and everything else that does with grammar. Thank God for spell check. I've recently sold my business and now I find my self a full time trader. I have over 60 positions with no hard stops on and I hopping on an airplane next Monday to go to Vegas. And for some reason I feel comfortable with my positions.I will check on them before the market closes and make any adjustments then. By the way I am not homeless but I do have a broadband card!
Posted by optionfanatic | 10/26/2007 05:33:00 PM
Denise,
I see a few things that might have helped. First of all go back out to a 1-2 yr chart and draw your trendlines.
I see what appears to be a large bull wedge (falling wedge) which is supposed to be a bullish pattern (I know some people don't like wedges - and especially ones this long in duration, but what is important is the trendlines.)
If you don't like the wedge as a pattern- that is ok, but the trendlines are there and obvious. One thing you should see is the two trendlines (wedge or not) are coming closer together = one way or another, shortly after 9/12 the stock price has to go outside the trendline.
With months of consolidation or coiling up, it was quite likely that there would be a big movement one way or the other upon breakout.
1. Look at 9/1 and 9/7, as the stock price attempts to go above the trendline - check out the volume vs. the down days nearby.
Your up days have significantly more volume than the down days nearby = bad sign for puts. You can even start about 8/29 and draw a diagonal line on the up days volume - each up day have more volume than the last.
Hindsight is 20/20 and you didn't have the benefit of seeing the future, but looking back at it - draw a trendline in volume starting at 8/29 (or even 8/24) hitting the top of the volume candles. You can see how the up volume increases vs. the down volume until the breakout on the 20th.
2. Also take a 2yr chart - and using a crayon, you will be able to draw a resistance line from where the stock broke out last September. Again some people like their support/resistance to have several touches before they use them. You should at least be aware of them as possible support/resistance areas anyway. Previous broken resistance = current support (or vice versa = resistance for your puts).
If you were not convinced that was a potential resistance based on the breakout last year, look at the 8/16 candle - that yucko day for the market that created the most beautiful HAMMER - and in a downtrend, a hammer can mean, upon confirmation, a "reversal."
Shortly thereafter, the stock goes on to hit the upper trendline again and come back down, BUT it never goes back down below the hammer open (doesn't close below it anyway.)
Conclusion = breakout from last year + hammer for major market turnaround on the same basic (crayon drawn) support line = good information that the stock price may have a tough time getting below that point.
Now, say you didn't see all that before you got in - 9/13 = up day with higher volume than 9/12, 9/14 might at first be confusing with lower volume but not after 9/17 where you see - even LESS volume on the next down day (further 9/14 was a friday). After those volume indicators you should see something is wrong. If you still weren't out by then, the next day, 9/18 is over 150% avg volume on an UP DAY = GET OUT. After one last retest on 9/19 which is on lower volume, the stock is off to the races on huge volume.
So ... with just price action (w/trendlines) and volume, you can see warning signs both before you got in and after you got in but before the stock took off.
If you are a MACD person, it wasn't much help before you got in, but after you got it you can see that it is turning back positive before it breaks out.
If you are a Stochastic person, the 2 line stochastic starts turning back positive on 9/12 and cross (buy signal) on the 9/13. IT snapshot even gives an official green arrow (for crossing 25) on the 18th - before the breakout.
So in a desparately needed conclusion:
Price Action = look for support/resistance.
Volume - look for counter trend/pattern indications
Price Patterns - falling wedge = bullish (and towards the later part of any wedge/triangle = be prepared for a breakout and use volume to show you which way its going to break.
THE SHORT VERSION - My own analysis method. All I would have needed to see to avoid this put = 1. Two converging trendlines (any triangle/wedge), or if you prefer a falling wedge and,
2. Volume higher and increasing on up days, not down days = Don't buy a put. ESPECIALLY at potential resistance.
Oscillators etc. just back up the above stuff, they are too slow, but good for confirmation.
Hope this helps - sorry to all non-Denise people that this is so long.
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/26/2007 05:33:00 PM
OF,
I sold my practice 18 months ago and now consider myself a full time trader. Please refrain from any "putting the horse in front of the cart" comments.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 05:36:00 PM
VA
I love all the complaints against people who sign off as “anonymous” by people who use cute usernames themselves. Ramio appears to be the only one who posts that has the guts to give his actual name. I cannot understand how anyone can make any comments about using “anonymous” unless they post with their real name. And some people might give a fake name and address.
Sincerely,
Elvis Presley
Las Vegas, Nevada.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 05:40:00 PM
James. Taking that much time and effort to help someone else should never require an apology. Awesome.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 05:41:00 PM
Elvis,
My name is Kim. Know about it. And I'm laughing. Can you send along a sweaty hankie?
Thank ya...thank ya very much...
KIM
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 05:44:00 PM
Elvis,
Most of us post with our real names and real pictures attached. With the new age that involves identity theft, should anyone post their full names and info?? Who would give their name and address??
Where is your full name, address and picture?? How about your SSN?
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 05:48:00 PM
Oh my God Elvis lives!!!
James,
Wow! That was awesome. I copied and pasted the majority of that into my JK word document.
Nice job!
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 05:49:00 PM
Good night all. Hugs and kisses. Even for you, anon.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/26/2007 05:52:00 PM
Full names and addresses? OK, I'll go first.
Name: Mrs.Robinson
Occupation: Desperate Housewife/ Wanna-be Trader
Location: Peyton Place
Tongue planted firmly in cheek.
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 05:54:00 PM
Hey Gang...
Eric and I made a guest appearance on the cast tonight. We ahd way too much fun.
Have a great weekend!
Jeff
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 06:02:00 PM
Kurt here -
I thought that I would put that upfront and get it out of the way... :)
I have to say I agree with the original comments for the most part. I came out of the shadows a short while ago and actually introduced myself and even received a few kind words of welcome from some of the regulars - thanks again! I then proceeded to offer a few ideas that I was working on and thought might be of interest to the group only to not be recognized or commented on. My thoughts were "well I am not in the click or I am not known well enough to be accepted" and I stopped posting and withdrew back to the shadows.
I now hope that I am not persecuted by the group for mentioning how I felt. I am extremely hopeful of a new beginning starting on Monday with Jeff's new format. I am also planning on a full and open engagement with it's launch.
Have a great week all - see you on Monday!!!
Again - Kurt
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 06:05:00 PM
Kurt...
Thanks for reading. You can address me anytime, i'll watch for you.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/26/2007 06:09:00 PM
Sean , I think you mean "The Horse Before the Cart". I'm very comfortable. Thanks, Have a great weekend ,Happy trading next week!
Posted by optionfanatic | 10/26/2007 06:13:00 PM
Kurt,
I'm sorry if you felt that way. Remember that tone is very hard to interpret over the internet and just because no one said anything does not mean that your input was not valuable.
Persecuted? Nah. :-) Just welcome!
Posted by Laney | 10/26/2007 06:21:00 PM
Jeff
I really enjoy your blog. all aspects of it. however I come here to learn I want to be a professional trader. I listen to the marketcast daily, I read you blog daily. however I think the only reason I keep cumming back is because you also entertain. DO NOT LOOSE THAT
Senate Eskridge
Posted by Senate Eskridge | 10/26/2007 06:43:00 PM
Jeff
I LOVE this website, and enjoy reading comments with other traders.
However, this website has way too much information. And, i have a very difficult time to finding your past important comments. When you setup the new site, can you please repost some of your comments before?
Look forward to see the new sites!
Mimosa
Posted by 含羞草 | 10/26/2007 06:51:00 PM
Kurt, I, too, apologize that you felt like you were not being heard...
Throw some ideas out there next week, will ya? :)
Posted by Krystal | 10/26/2007 07:09:00 PM
Kurt,
Try not to feel that way. Often times,some of us have nothing of value to say and you may take that as being ignored, or me may not understand your question. I have 4 kids and 3 of them I am able to converse with on-line. When I post and I do not get a reply for some time I used to feel ignored. Now I know that they are just busy responding to their other contacts and I am daddy that is lower on their list. If you don't get a reply, I would take that as a confirmation that maybe nobody has a better idea than you do.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/26/2007 07:40:00 PM
All,
I value all opinions, I also feel this would be most effective as a educationa format maybe posting more charts with experiences. Talking entry exit and why. I would very much agree with persuing the ability to find trades on your own. I use the big chart and check from a bottom up approach for intstance to catch money flowing in and then check the industry trend, then go after stocks. I like out of the money using implied volitility during earnings. Just examples of things I have found useful, this is more how we should be focused. I believe in the COMMUNITY and we should be in contact using email and respecting the purpose of this blog. You are all wonderful poeple and I am glad to get to know your personalities but lets focus on tradeing here!!!!
Jason in Oregon
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 08:03:00 PM
Kurt
bring on the trade ideas love to see what you got.. I am look over many watch lists right now as we speak for next week and I agree with selling options think when the vix is high take that money home..
Posted by Califorina.Trader | 10/26/2007 08:08:00 PM
Hello OA's
I am one who read every post and commented on each when it was mostly trading and a little banter. As a matter of fact I am guilty of too much banter.
I have no idea what is driving all this talk now but I can't keep up anymore.
Why?
I have to trade.
So my opinion is let's talk about trading and banter where banter is due.
Furthermore, let's go to Vegas on the 14th of Nov and talk about it further.
Cheers,
Arty
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/26/2007 09:33:00 PM
Jeff,
Fantastic blog, I only voted once for the record, and only in the business blog. I have been reading for 4 months, learned a lot, made a lot of money, thanks for that. I stopped reading the comments because I am a busy guy... I really can't stand reading about half of the crap that people have been posting lately. Not because I don't enjoy it, because it is a book instead of a sentence. So I stopped reading the comments all together. I am sure that this is not what you wanted, I am sure you will fix it.
It is important to allow people to communicate and get to know each other, but maybe there is a better forum than a "business" blog. You have a very systematic approach to trading, we just need a better system for personal blogging...
My personal preference would be to talk trading and leave the other stuff on a seperate thread. Ya all know how much time any of us have........not enough...
Bests,
Zach in Oregon
Posted by Anonymous | 10/26/2007 09:38:00 PM
Kurt, sorry you didn't feel heard or welcomed here .... As you can see, the Big Kahuna Kohler wants nothing but inclusion here ...Come on back in next week and let's get to trading!
This is a good group of folks and we all learn from each other ....
Have a good weekend OA's....
Posted by Benton | 10/26/2007 09:40:00 PM
Once upon a time I was a regular poster; now I'm more of a lurker.
Unfortunately, I don't have time to read thru all the comments. But I do read some of them.
I agree that separating trade-specific comments from more personal conversations is an excellent idea. HOWEVER: I also must say that even though I don't read all the comments, I do appreciate them. This community helps me feel not so alone in this. The sense of camaraderie (I looked up the spelling) helps me stay in the game when I feel like giving up.
And when my brain's not melted from work and school (bachelor's degree on the horizon), I even learn a thing or three.
Thanks, Jeff, for paying it forward to all of us. (note: Pay it Forward - an excellent movie that should be on everyone's watchlist)
Thanks to all of you - you are all great in my book.
PS. My name's Pat, short for Patricia. I've been a computer tech for 15 years, & am currently living thru the world's longest home remodeling project.
Posted by mendocino sunrise | 10/26/2007 09:51:00 PM
Option Addicts,
I learn so much from this resource. I'm continually impressed and inspired by the progress so many of you are making (e.g., Kim and Liz and others). I'm continually impressed by the contributions made by those farther along the learning curve (e.g., Brett and Raimo).
I post infrequently but I'm reading avidly and trying to absorb all I can and apply it effectively to my trading. I hope we can continue to cultivate a community that is rewarding for people like Jeff, Brett and Raimo to contribute to regularly.
Sincerest thanks to Jeff and OAs,
Mike
Posted by Mike | 10/26/2007 10:12:00 PM
A little give and take is fum and makes the posts more interesting. However it has gotten out of control.
I used to look at the comments daily but now I don't have enough time to go through all the chat to find the trades. I tend to ignore the comments or search for specific posters.
I would like to see the comments to go back to trading. I learn as much from the questions asked by less experienced traders as I do from the comments of the more experienced traders.
Posted by Bob in TN | 10/26/2007 10:27:00 PM
Jeff,
On the marketcast, what did you mean when you said marketcast was officially broken? Was that because you two got overly silly on this one or are there serious changes coming re marketcast?
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/26/2007 10:34:00 PM
James,
That was a great post up there. I love reading your comments. Especially this week, when you were reading (I assume) the daily charts and predicting the market movement, that was very educational for me. I went back and started studying the indices and daily charts also. Please keep posting your ideas and thoughts and insights.
Kurt,
I am sorry no one responded when you posted. On a busy market day, sometimes people are keeping up with the trades they already have going, that they don't respond to new trades because they are just watching other stuff. Keep posting. This is a great blog.
Jeff,
I agree with a lot of other posts, a separate chat section and trading section would be great. I have been guilty of chatting too much, but now don't have the time I used to, to read through all the comments. But there are days that I want to interact with other traders on a personal level to stay plugged in, so the chat would be great for that.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/27/2007 05:12:00 AM
Kurt Here:
Thanks to all the responses encluding Jeff's! You can see thedesire in most of the group to help and to include...I am looking forward to the new beginning next week.
Thanks everyone...I also hope to post some real "meat" to add to the stew we are cooking up.
Kurt
Posted by Anonymous | 10/27/2007 06:50:00 AM
Thank you Laney, Jim 2020, SeanM. I appreciate you taking the time to answer my request for info on the invester business set up.
I really like the personalities on the blog, everyone. It's a very good mix. I too have had trouble getting through all the comments, though when I had time it was very entertaining. I know that with the renewed focus on trading all of your wonderful personalities will still shine through and we will enjoy a great mix of trading, education, entertainment and friendship. Thanks to all.
I Hope to meet all of you someday at an OA gathering.
CHEERS TO JEFF & AMBER!!!
susan "STUMP" (from Wisconsin)
Posted by Anonymous | 10/27/2007 10:31:00 AM
Folks,
I think the bottom line is that everyone, regardless whether they regularly post or not, greatly values this incredible resource in general and Jeff specifically. Someone pointed out earlier that all of a sudden a lot of new names have popped up that have never posted before. That's what it's all about, getting more people involved.
Krystal,
Absolutely no apologies are needed from anyone. We're all interested in the same thing here, to pick up and exchange trading ideas, make a lot of money, and maybe have a little bit of fun doing it.
Everyone have a great weekend.
Posted by Mark | 10/27/2007 11:03:00 AM
Jeff and fellow OA's,
My name is Mike and I have been a lurker Option Addict for about four months. This is my first post.
I sincerely apologize for not posting or contributing. What I once thought was a sound reason is now realized as an excuse.
While most of you were participating in great trades, I was getting cremated by them. So my reason was, why share if I can not be successful, leading someone down the same path of losses. Lame!!! My challenges could have been dealt with easily if I would have shared and someone could have learned from my mistakes. I am very stubborn and determined to figure things out for myself, even if it is the hard way. I never asked, called or emailed anyone for help. My Investools trading rooms and coaching just expired. I only called coaching once and it was to introduce myself. Call it stupid or whatever you want but this blog has got to be the only place to "Git Er Dunn".
I hold this blog 100% responsible for my trading success and I thank you all. If it was not for all of your input and Jeff's awesome training blog, I would be depositing cash into my TOS account the hard way. It was very close to $0. Now very close to positive. It CAN be done.
As for dealing with the comments, all I can say is, there are some very great posts here constantly but I find myself avoiding them when it gets long winded, tons of posts, like now. Different sections for trading and fun makes sense but mixing it up does not bother me too much. I really enjoy the humor sometimes.
Now all I have to do is figure out how to post so my name ends up at the bottom so I can be identified. Any help here would be greatly appreciated. I show up in the right as "mikendebb".
Thank you ALL,
Mike
mikendebb
Posted by Anonymous | 10/27/2007 11:21:00 AM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Stump | 10/27/2007 11:37:00 AM
Jeff,
Great "Greater Good" Post - Awesome insight into the market. In addition, thanks for the open house last week. I took a good hit Friday week ago because (yes again) I owned too much! Learnt an important lesson about hedging my trades. The day succeeding the Open house, I immediately put one of the strategies into play (RIMM poped and all of a sudden my Dec120 call were up over 100%! I purchased a Nov115 to counter a possible fall. Based on this defensive play - I have locked in approx 60% gain... Top stuff - the daily roller coaster has turned onto a kiddies ride and I get alot more out of my IT acc now!
On the "interesting Comment Post". I can help but agree... I read you post without fail each day - I rarly read the comments. I just scan for your grey responce comment blocks (thansk for differentiating your comments). If you comment sparks intrest, I will then look further for the original string. While I have my own watch-list, you have a kick-arse watch list. I use it to complement my own trades and look for other performing stocks in the same industries.
Thanks for your great work. I hope my comments above (putting my poor spelling aside) is helpful,
Thanks - Traderdave
Posted by traderdave | 10/27/2007 11:47:00 AM
welcome Mike
Posted by sue | 10/27/2007 11:48:00 AM