New Blog Anthem
Recommendation: Listen to the words... They go down smooth.
Long: The Good Times
Short: The Bad Times
Disclaimer: James Ingram loves the Option Addict
« Home | Better Late Than Never »
Subscribe to posts and get Jeff's articles delivered to you automatically.
Subscribe to comments and keep up with the addict community.
Need help? Learn about subscribing.
Ok, I listened to the song with a new theme - trading. Jeff, it does kind of sum up my feelings that just once I would like to get it right. Chris said it perfectly earlier today.
Jeff and others I think one thing that many of us are looking for is that some of you like Jeff, Brett, Raimo and others are getting it right and days like this are no big deal for you as that gives us hope and the knowledge that we too can do it and can get it.
I was looking back on some moves made in stocks Feb 27 and found it very interesting that many moved more today than then.
I have my plan in place for tomorrow and tomorrow will show if it was a good one or not. Other than losing virtual profits today was not very painful at all to my account. After hours and futures has me concerned though for tomorrow.
Thanks all.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/11/2007 08:28:00 PM
Chris,
Not sure what I did to deserve your thanks but I'll take it and raise you a "thank-you" for the great laughs and encouragement that you provide.
Brett,
Your going to Vegas? Admit it, you're an Elvis impersonator. You spend all of your trading income on polyester rhinestone jumpsuits and cheap sunglasses.
I hsve to just say that I am really proud of myself for not losing my mind today. I think that I have learned to control the emotion because I know the secret. I can make money trading options! In two months I have doubled my account and it is largely due to this blog and all of you great traders.
I toast you with my version of alcohol. A cup of coffee, heavy on the cream. :-)
Posted by Laney | 10/11/2007 08:42:00 PM
well i need to grab some tissues...can we get somethings a little more upbeat tomorrow??? like "the sun will come out tomorrow......" i don't really know the rest....
have a good evening everyone...
Posted by Tonya W | 10/11/2007 08:45:00 PM
Tonya W, you mean this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpAisYXFxGg&mode=related&search=
(I hope that works)
The one that goes "...bet your bottom dollar..."
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/11/2007 09:06:00 PM
Ben,
I don't know how much free time I'll have, but if you have a handheld, email me bdatlas@yahoo.com and we can try and meet up. No chips necessary.
Posted by Brett | 10/11/2007 09:12:00 PM
Here is another clip for motivation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogKUx_q7ig
And I just thought of another acronym for the OA dictionary: BUI - Blogging Under the Influence
Posted by Scoot | 10/11/2007 09:21:00 PM
Jeff,
Perfect song to end a very imperfect day.
Laney,
I am extremely impressed that you have doubled your account in 2 months. Congrats!
Tomorrow should be interesting. G'night and sweet screams, everyone.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/11/2007 09:28:00 PM
Well folks, I consider today a success. I may have lost more money than the average family makes in a year but I didn't get emotional about it. I planned my trades and I traded my plan to use a trite saying. Stocks and options that exceeded my mental stops were sold and others still above support were left alone. I could have sold everything for fear the rush to the exits isn't over or I could have bought the dips hoping the market would move higher tomorrow. But I don't know which way it will go so I plan on reacting to the market, not trying to guess which way it will go. Unfortunately I have to set hard stops tomorrow as I'm off to spend the day at Willow Springs raceway to see if I can blow an engine or blow some other drivers into the weeds.
One oddity that I haven't had time to figure out is why earlier in the week and last week on days that were similarly down I was actually up quite a bit and on this day that wasn't particularly bad overall it had a disastrous effect on our accounts. I've not looked to see how well or poorly I'm diversified but I'm guessing most of us are heavy in the tech sector although I don't know why DRYS would run aground or POT would go up in smoke. I have about 60 positions open at any one time for diversification but that doesn't help when the majority of them go south.
I appreciate the comforting words but I'm fine. On Wednesday alone I made more than I lost today and all of my losers were just smaller winners than they were in the morning. The market may go up or down, just be ready to pounce either way. Now go kick some market butt!
Stan
Posted by Stan Lake | 10/11/2007 09:54:00 PM
Stan and Brett,
I feel your pain. Been there, done that. Hell, I've lost more then the two of you combined, so I know from first hand experience the ups and downs of trading. It can sink you, or it can make you stronger. The choice is yours.
It is apparant the choice you have made, and I am honored to be in your presence. I only hang with those that know how to perservere. (did I spell that right?)
Anyway's, I too am away, hunting of course. Don't panic, the bulls are here, no bears as I am about to unleash hell on them at sunrise tomorrow.
This Bull market WILL continue, and we will finish higher for the year.
Posted by Raimo | 10/11/2007 10:12:00 PM
Scoot-
I checked out the youtube link and then I ended up listening to a bunch of Queen songs instead of doing "homework". Brought back memories of elementary school and these two kids doing a break dancing routine to "Another One Bites the Dust" at a talent show. Makes me smile.
Thanks.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/11/2007 10:16:00 PM
Bob-
My computer did okay today but I have had the same affliction that Doji Girl and I think it was Ben that said their computers seem to go down in the worst times. Thankfully, not today. I'm just waiting until the end of October and then I'm getting a new computer.
Though my account did make some big swings today. My husband was so excited this morning when he came in and checked on me and this afternoon he made made some low whistling sounds so I shooed him out of the room. I almost gave him the hammer. ;-)
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/11/2007 10:23:00 PM
Jeff-
Thanks for sharing the song and the blogging today.
Thankfully, tomorrow is Friday. I think this weekend will mean a whole lot more after today.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/11/2007 10:25:00 PM
Raimo, Brett & Stan-
Thanks for holding strong. It's encouraging to hear!
I can't wait until I have an "expense" that large and am not bothered by it because I held tight to my plan.
When I have an "expense" that large... that means I'm making huge "deposits" into my account! Now that is cool!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/11/2007 10:34:00 PM
Liz, made me do the same thing until my daughter came in and wanted to show me several versions of the hampster dance on You Tube. Boy am I out of it and uncool as I never heard of this.
Brett, Raimo and all I am so impressed that you can take off tomorrow (or any trading day)as that is one of the main reasons I am doing this to have the ability to have a life with my family. So far that goal has not been met either but is one of the real ones.
Now I have to get that hampster dance song out of my head!
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/11/2007 11:07:00 PM
Asia is down BIG, futures are down a little, and the Rockies have won 18 of 19. If the economic data (PPI & retail #’s) doesn’t give the fed a more compelling reason to lower rates, the sky will be falling… If it does, we can catch it, jump on board or let it pass by. Whichever way it goes, book profits and go with the flow or not.
I must admit, I take a great deal of pleasure in watching irrational behavior in the market place. Or is what I may consider “irrational” really “rational” since the majority is what I consider to be “irrational”. That would make me irrational. As you can see I am clearly crazy, but, that’s alright because it works for me.
Until then, good night!
Posted by Logan | 10/12/2007 12:15:00 AM
Brett, sounds good will do, thanks.
Logan I am with you on your assessment for tomorrow.
Stan, I think you are totally correct, you basically did what you should. I debated and I was like "this is an over reaction, this is a scenario to possibly bend the rules." However the more I thought about it, the more I figured that would be dumb, if I plan to be consistent I need to always follow. So that is when I planned to exit my violating trades and my internet went out. Obviously this will happen again, so I think from a probability standpoint who knows if it will work to your advantage over the long run, but my logical guess would be yes it would, so even if it ends up that it would have been better to be a "buy the dip" scenario, you preserved capital which is most important in my opinion, and I didn't always think that way. Lets say you miss the rebound, so what you'll then know its likely safe again and can get in on action, lets say it continues down, you then saved money.
I know you knew all of that already, just had to express my thoughts and say i agree.
I went out and had some drinks which led to Karaoke. Wow, now that I just think of it it was extremely appropriate song, ROFL.
It was...Chumbawamba "Tubthumpin" If anyone knows the song hopefully you chuckle. Part of the main chorus is "i Get knocked down, but I get up again."
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 02:50:00 AM
Oh and Scoot, that explanation seems much more reasonable to me, you learned valuable lessons and followed them, good job!
I am going to start using the phrase "by the grace of Kohler".
"and by the grace of Kohler I was properly position sized and didn't lose all my money!"
LOL, ok clearly I need sleep. Goodnight all, likely will dream of blogging.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 02:55:00 AM
NO, this pullback was coming. You had to see it. Look at the indices since the middle of August, straight up. This was coming. Funny how news is timely when a pullback or correction is warranted.
Well, off to a tree. I'll try and check in between hunts as long as my satellite is working....rotten weather for satllite here.....
Posted by Raimo | 10/12/2007 04:42:00 AM
Plus, i see opportunity to get in plays I've been jealous of!!!
Posted by Raimo | 10/12/2007 05:01:00 AM
Oh Jeff, that song was the most hysterical start to my morning. I really needed that.
I'll be honest and say I went counter to my rules in buying some new positions yesterday but I treated the trades as if earnings were coming out today. I only risked what I was willing to lose 100% of on each. Except for BIDU. It just felt like a lot larger overreaction than what was warranted.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 05:05:00 AM
I looked for this scene from Animal House on YouTube but I couldn't find it but this is houw I feel today!
Bluto:What?! Over? Did you say over? NOTHING is over until WE decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HELL, NO!
Otter: Germans?
Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.
Bluto: It ain't over now! For when the goin' gets tough,..............the tough get going! Who's with me!? LET'S GO! C'MON! OOOOOOOOOOOO!
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 05:36:00 AM
NILE just got cut from a buy to a sell by CITI.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 06:00:00 AM
DG,
Just got home and looked out the back door... and there, on our back deck was what looked like an ex-rabbit. It actually looked like someone had carefully inserted a stick of dynamite into a rabbit and lit it off. But there was no head. Our cat is apparently very particular about what parts he flails about on our deck. Raimo would have been proud.
Welcome home, Dad.
I'm off to sleep so I can be up for the first hour of the markets. Want to see if I'm going to have to sell any of those calls or puts I'm still in. The trouble is... whichever way the market opens doesn't necessarily mean it's going to keep going in that direction.
This should be interesting.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 06:06:00 AM
GLYT finally broke down yesterday. Jeff has been talking about this one for awhile. Looks like a $17 move from the desc. triangle.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 06:15:00 AM
Kim,
GLYT has no options and it's still in a support area (on the 2-year), so you're going to have to short it if you trade it without hedging by buying calls. Plus earnings are coming up.
Jeff, perhaps you can comment on this but i have a lingering fear of the market right now.
In the past, it has been seemingly innocuous events that eventually started some major bear markets. Yesterday, BIDU was downgraded and the comments about inflation. That huge reversal day also worries me that this could be the beginning of the end.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 06:30:00 AM
Brett,
Looks like the markets are going to open 'up'. If you are right, then this morning may be a trap.
I also got out of everything yesterday. I bought some things back when there was a turn around but ended up selling those when it dropped again.
I think I'll take a break today, observe, and plan some entries.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 06:36:00 AM
Brett and Raimo,
Thanks for sharing. Yesterday was a tough day as I saw profits slip away and wondered what I should have done differently. Was away from the computer, so couldn't take any action. Regardless who is right or wrong or what is the best action to take, hearing what seasoned traders do when things are tough helps us grow. When everything is just pumping along and everybody is buying and making money, well, it doesn't matter, but yesterday are days that make or break traders.
Jeff, a comment or two on how you handled yesterday and today would probably all help us out.
Just reading Raimo and Brett's comments, sounds like you both have a little bit different takes.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 06:39:00 AM
Jeff,
I am a long time reader, first time writer (and Laney's mom), the new blog anthem set my day off with a smile. Thanks.
I appreciate all you do.
Posted by Jersey Girl | 10/12/2007 06:40:00 AM
MOM!!! How funny, we're reading at the same time. xoxo
Did you guys see NILE this a.m.? Yikes! I preserved some profits yesterday, thankfully.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 06:42:00 AM
News headlines are retail sales strong and PPI rising. Yesterday the headlines read that retail was slow. Does the news like to skew things or what? Or maybe they just don't know either. And this morning I read that the futures were down and now they seem to be up. You be the judge. Guess we'll all see. I am going to study the charts and decide where to take a stand.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 06:42:00 AM
Laney,
Could be a rough day for NILE...on the other hand, it could open low and rocket higher.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 06:50:00 AM
Jeff,
Just took a moment to listen to the new anthem. Appropriate wording for all of us. I may have given up by now without your support and those of fellow OAs.
Thanks for all you do!
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 06:50:00 AM
Patti,
Don't give up. When you feel overwhelmed, just step away for an hour, day, week, whatever it takes, and regroup. If this were easy, everybody would be doing it.
Chris,
I'm glad you are doing well. Looks like you have rebounded from last month. Way to go.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 07:01:00 AM
Brett,
I was just reading about NILE and thought back to what you said the other day about HANS and the analysts. Isn't the $100 area a pschological area? Maybe they pushed it down before it rockets?
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 07:05:00 AM
Brett,
Thanks for the heads up on GLYT. I'll take it under advisement.
Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 07:12:00 AM
Liz - I know what you mean - I got distracted and stayed up a little too late listening to a few of their songs myself. Glad you enjoyed it and have a great day!
Posted by Scoot | 10/12/2007 07:13:00 AM
Michelle,
Thanks for the encouragement. You are an inspiration. Stepping back for awhile is exatly what I have done at times I felt discouraged. But I always kept reading the blog.
Yesterday wasn't too bad for my account. I had sold some of my positions near the open and I was fairly quick to get out of the rest of them at the drop. It just set me back to where I was a couple of days ago as far as getting my account back to break even.
--Patti
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 07:21:00 AM
Can someone give me the Readers Digest condensed version of the Marketcast? I have been trying, in vain, for the last 15 minutes to listen to it. Stoopid computer!
Thanks
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 07:26:00 AM
Well, none too scary of an opening. Let's see what the day brings. Follow your plan (that is mostly for me).
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 07:35:00 AM
SOHU has some strength. Give me some upside I want out today before earnings. I'm in the Oct calls.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 07:45:00 AM
Laney,
On Markercast one thing Jeff talked about was how to set stops. He said to set below support or above resistance based on whatever support area you are using be it a moving average it is following, ATR, consolidation area, parabolic SAR, etc. And to take entries that are at REE (OA term) so your not risking much if it goes against you.
He also mentioned DOW theory and that the transports are acting counter to that theory by being down at this time in the cycle.
That was my understanding anyway. If I'm mistaken, someone please correct any of this.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 07:47:00 AM
I give up!!! What does REE mean? If iam to become an OA then I MUST know what is an obviously important term... Please help me OAs.... I can not go on without knowing..... I will not last the weekend!!! HELP......
Karl - A new OA Candidate....
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 07:58:00 AM
I just bought a bunch of IWM and DIA puts. I'm going on the record here because I really believe yesterday was a significant reversal day.
Also bought some SA calls.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 08:00:00 AM
Karl,
Welcome! REE is the term OA Bob Raimo coined to describe entering a trade at the same support or resistance point you would exit if it goes against you. It stands for Raimo Entry/Exit.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 08:07:00 AM
Brett,
What technical analysis are you basing that on? I look at the indices and they seem to be holding at support. The news is positive. Would like to see what you are seeing. What am I missing?
P.S. Don't want another day like yesterday. Yesterday was loss of profits. Now we are talking capital.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 08:08:00 AM
Brett,
Are you seeing SA as a cup & handle breakout?
Thanks, Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 08:10:00 AM
Brett,
Are you buying these puts as a hedge or do you actually have a target? I was thinking the same as you earlier but since I couldn't answer that question I didn't trade buy any. Yet.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 08:15:00 AM
Brett ... thank you for the reminder on the ETF's.. I'm not good enough at this yet to remember to insure a little for downside risk (been buying individual puts this AM). I agree with you that reversal became more real after yesterday. Some could call today .. a 'sucker' rally so far ...
You are the man! I appreciate your contributions on this blog ... very much!
Posted by Benton | 10/12/2007 08:16:00 AM
I am looking for a PUT with a good entry. Anybody got anything on their radar worth looking at right now... thanks
Barry
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 08:27:00 AM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 08:29:00 AM
Brett,
I'm with you on the index puts. Picked up SPY & IWM puts yesterday (brain fart on the QQQQ), sold them this morning, but will probably buy them again this afternoon.
One ETF you guys might want to watch is the SMH (semiconductors). That group didn't participate in the Tech rally, and if Intel reports badly next week, could totally roll over.
Posted by Mark | 10/12/2007 08:32:00 AM
Brett,
I see the breakout on SA, but wouldn't you think SA will retest the 32.80 level?
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 08:32:00 AM
Brett,
I agree I don't like the large swing yesterday, however looking at my positions I can't say I can support it with good evidence or conviction.
all of these companies are going into earnings mostly that I hold, AAPL, GOOG, those usually run up into earnings so I don't know if I can justify selling.
When does Bernanke speak today? That will be a big deal I think in terms of what happens.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 08:33:00 AM
Ben,
Just beware GOOG. They don't do well on earnings. Last quarter the earnings were good and I think it dropped 40 points overnight.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 08:36:00 AM
Check out DAKT, looks like its flagging but no breakout yet.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 08:41:00 AM
Michelle,
I don't want anyone to read my post and run out and buy index puts. If you're using trendlines and support, there's no reason to do it. However, as I said, I didn't like the reversal day yesterday and I like the entry in case the market dumps. Simple as that.
As for SA, I see a cup and handle breakout. Probably too late now.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 08:47:00 AM
Barry,
Look at GLYT and JCP for puts.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 08:55:00 AM
Brett,
SA. Man! I was doing my risk/reward analysis and it blew off its top. Grrr!
Thanks for the price pattern confirm. Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 08:56:00 AM
Patti,
Thank you! I see said the blind man... Makes much sense!!! I look forward to learning much more from you guys!!!
Karl
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 08:59:00 AM
Thanks Michelle,
Yea I was on the wrong end of that last time, i thought you said you were too or am I thinking of someone else?
Well, I decided to stop trying to guess and since I have stuff to do the rest of the day and I don't know how Bernanke will affect things I decided to pull out.
I am a spectator till I can get a guage. I still think things go higher, especially the stocks we choose to go higher but I basically got out with a profit over yesterday's gain, so overall I can't complain.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:02:00 AM
Karl, Welcome. You will learn a lot here.
DVA - is anyone trading this one? Looks like a nice pullback to trendline support. Any thoughts?
VBarbara
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 09:06:00 AM
Thanks, Brett for sharing with us. No, I'm not going to go out and buy puts. Just wanted to see what your justification was.
Ben,
Yes, that was me that held GOOG over earnings last time and got burned.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:07:00 AM
Sean
Thanks. I like the way GLYT is set up, but no options. I am also looking at POOL to be a good entry.
Barry
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:09:00 AM
What does it mean when the bid of a stock is higher than the ask?? I've been watching BIIB for a while and it seems strange to see that.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 09:12:00 AM
DG,
Could be an exchange problem. ISE was (and maybe still is)having a problem with cancels and fills. Yesterday, TDAmeritrade had problems with updating order status (they can't seem to handle heavy volume).
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 09:16:00 AM
DVA - where I do my trendline, today's action is below it. I'd wait til it stops going down and moves up above today's high at least.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 09:17:00 AM
Ok folks, I've been watching this for awhile and today's the day. Check MLM. Sitting right on top of support at 135, and the 200/30 day mov averages. Nice retest of that support yesterday and popping today.
Nice safe entry point. A break back below 135 and it's done.
Posted by Mike | 10/12/2007 09:18:00 AM
I reinvested in several stocks yesterday, not all of them at REE, but I was buying the discount in anticipation that all of these would go back up. I bought all NOV calls. Most of these I got stopped out of yesterday. Luckily I had fairly close stops in place so I didn't get hurt badly.
AAPL, BCSI (sold this yesterday before the drop), DRYS, EXM (1/2 position each in the transports), FCX, GRMN, HANS, OI, RIO, RIMM, VIP.
I wish I would have bought POT too. Whether I was smart to buy on the dip or just lucky, I bought all stocks that had been strong recently and got hit by that pullback yesterday (although OI and RIO were actually up barely on the day - I liked that too).
The end result is my entire account is up 16.5% today. I'm several thousand $$ higher than at my high yesterday (mostly due to the high stops I had in place to preserve profits.
Depending on how the day goes, I may sell them all - I hear much pessimism here, and on CNBC etc. I'm going to be on vacation next week and won't be able to watch them well.
Hope the rest of you got a nice spike up today as well, looks like the market is gradually climbing up.
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/12/2007 09:24:00 AM
DG,
I looked at BIIB (sold it yesterday to lock in profits) and I don't see any calls where bid's higher than ask. Theoretically that's not possible, because as soon as bid equals ask... order gets filled. Sort of like quantum mechanics... only cheaper.
I just bought more NOV. This stock is such easy money. Today my RRSP is up by more than it was down yesterday. Buying and holding a good company triumphs over evil!!!
POT is bouncing back today. Hope someone bought it yesterday on the bounce.
Well considering I'm 45% in cash right now, I've recouped all of yesterday's losses. Now it's time to figure out where the heck the market's going to go. I think I'm going to sit over the weekend with most of the cash that I have now. Unless there's something that really tickles my fancy.
PNR is such a perfect put entry. If I didn't already have my limit (sort of like fishing...) I'd be buying more.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 09:29:00 AM
F.Y.I.: Next Friday, Oct. 19 is the 20-year aniversary of the '87 Crash. CNBC is doing their best to keep it in the headlines. They certainly do what can to manipulate the markets.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 09:34:00 AM
NILE...
Cry with me people!
To the veterans (Brett, Jeff, Raimo and others): In an instance like with NILE, when the stock gaps against you clearly beyond your defined exit, what do you do? Exit immediately, no matter what time of day? Wait til the last trading hour? Or, if you have plenty of time til expiration and you're still bullish/bearish on the stock and think that you may be able to recoup some of your premium, do you hang on for a few more days or weeks? I'd be interested to know! :)
BTW, welcome aboard Karl!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:38:00 AM
Brett,
Do you have any news on NILE ?
Why is it down $8 Bucks ?
Or does anyone have information ?
David in NH
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:39:00 AM
Jeff,
I owe you one for MON. Why oh why will this one not quit going up? I bought some yesterday when it pulled back and it's up 30% since 3:00. Merci beaucoup, as those nasty people to my right would say.
As of today I'm a full time trader. For the next 3 weeks, anyway. Catherine will play my Vanna White and feed me peeled grapes and IV Monster Java in my ice cold veins. We will emerge victorious ove this scumbag we call a market.
Might even take a quick trip to Vegas to meet some of the OAs that are going to be there over the next couple of weeks. We'll see how the account does.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 09:41:00 AM
David,
NILE was downgrade from buy to "hold"... or "sell"... or "don't go near" or some such thing.
Krystal play your rules. If this has dropped NILE below your exit point then have a look at the 1 day chart and if it's not showing signs of bouncing back sell. It doesn't look very healthy to me. It had a bit of a bounce earlier in the day... but it looks more like a dead-cat bounce (something that almost happened this morning in my back yard.) I'd preserve what capital you can and sink it into something that is more likely to go in the direction you're hoping.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 09:47:00 AM
Here's my take on NILE. I sold it yesterday because it was giving me the heebie-jeebies. (A very technical trader term.) I locked in a small profit and was glad when I saw what it did this morning.
Now, I have two lines drawn on my chart, one at about $94, where I got in and the second at $85 and change. It opened up right smack dab in the middle of those two lines and has continued to fall. My guess is, it falls to the $85 and if it can hold, it will probably go back up. Anybody else?
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 09:48:00 AM
vero,
I see DVA sitting pretty much at REE on a line chart. Earnings are in NOV. This is a good example of the problem I have around earnings
If you bought the Nov options and got a conserv 4 pt move by 11/1 and went ATM or one strike out you still have only a 2:1 risk/rew.
With the market near its highs I cannot justify it. As you know, at the top is chop (Bret has me thinking).
Fortunately, (maybe unfortunately because I am 1 year into this trading thing) I have only looking for compelling trades and am not compelled to take trades.
Historically, this is when I have given back all my profits (ie. at tops or bottoms of a market.
Ugh, not to mention the FED neddling around making statements and such.
Long:Questions
Short:Answers
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 09:49:00 AM
Krystal,
I agree with Chris. I would have dumped it this morning. I feel your pain, I was in the "stock that we don't speak of" when it fell hard.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 09:50:00 AM
Checking in from a tree. Whats all this doom and gloom...higher highs and lows, till the CHARTS tell u differently.
GOOG does not do well on earnings?? Are you kidding?? 12 of 13 I believe they have blown away the street. Even the last earnings not were good (yes, the stock dropped...the street wanted BETTER..)And did those earnings keep GOOG DOWN???? NO!!
LOOK AT THE CHARTS< THEY TELL ALL.
Back to hunting...
PS.. I sold nothing yesterday in a panic, and until the CHARTS tell me we are bearish, we are bullish....PERIOD.
All my trades are still in play, both calls and puts....
Posted by Raimo | 10/12/2007 09:51:00 AM
Krystal, look at the 5 or 10 day chart for NILE. It's been trying to pull back and has formed some support at around 88.20. Hopefully that holds.. but be on the lookout if a descending triangle forms on that short term chart.
I'm pulling for it to hold support and will wait until the end to see what happens. Then again, I didn't just buy a call, I sold a OCT 90/85 vert spread on it. So I have some leeway.
-Kevin
Posted by 1styearmlm | 10/12/2007 10:06:00 AM
DG - the technical term for when the bid is higher than the ask is called a crossed market. It happens from time to time but should correct itself. As this information comes from one of your broker's servers, you could try logging out of your trading platform and logging back in to see if it will connect you with another server that is not having that issue.
Posted by Scoot | 10/12/2007 10:08:00 AM
Hey Raimo, what do you use to connect to the internet from the tree stand? Half the time my computer does not connect so maybe you have something that works better?
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 10:09:00 AM
Jeff,
Just listened to the anthem. I grabbed Catherine and we slow danced all around the kitchen. Once I clean up the glass I'll be off to Pier One to buy new Margharitta glasses. So much for romantic moments.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 10:11:00 AM
C2,
When I said the bid was higher than the ask, I was referring to the stock price which is what I base all my trades on. It was not reflected in the option price and now it seems to be back to a normal few cent spread but it was strange to see the inversion for the 15 minutes or so that I noticed it.
I can't find any compelling trades to take this Friday and some of my profits continue to melt (BEN & YGE). I may close BEN but YGE will stay unless it violates the trend line.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 10:17:00 AM
Kevin,
I'm holding on til towards the end of the day, too. I was at the doctor with my 7month old when the market opened this morning, so that's why I'm still in NILE.
I looked at the 5/10 day charts and I can see the support you're talking about. I just keep thinking about how I exited garmin (please nobody get mad at me for mentioning that one again!) even though I was still bullish on the trend of it, and if I had followed my hunch with garmin, I'd be a lot happier right now. Not emotional, though. I'll close out NILE today if it continues to piss me off! :) Besides, my husband said I should drop it because it's quote "DUMB."
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 10:17:00 AM
GOOG dropped from 550 to 512 last earnings and took a month to recover and now it's going to town. If you can stomach that kind of ride and have plenty of time on your options, then.... well, hold over earnings. I am just bringing to the attention to new traders something I was not aware of on GOOG and earnings.
As always with any stock, holding over earnings can be a gamble depending on where you get in and how much you can afford to lose.
Raimo,
Glad to see you are still out there. I knew if anybody could get a rise out of you, it would be me. I love ya, man.
I did not sell off yesterday either except what got stopped out and I had not control over. I see the market as bullish until the charts tell me differently.
Hope your hunting is going well.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 10:26:00 AM
Scoot, thanks for the 'crossed market' term. It wasn't just my Ameritrade streamer that was showing it. It was also on TOS at the same time. I think it is interesting that the stock took off shortly after that.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 10:32:00 AM
Anyone liking MTW at this point? On diagnol support.
JB
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 10:35:00 AM
DG,
YGE just has wild swings for a lower priced stock. I got in on 10/02 on the breakout and out on 10/04 because I couldn't stomach the wild drop that happens in minutes and even though it has never closed below that pennant support of 27.00. I hope to do better on one like that next time by buying right at my exit rather than on a breakout. Looks like here at 30 could be new support and a great REE for someone - just not me, not today.
--Patti
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 10:46:00 AM
I was stopped out of AMZN yesterday because it broke my REE therefore ended up with a small loss. I bought it this morning because it had bounced off of my diag. REE and it's doing well.
I also bought IBM as it looked bullish going through my horiz. REE. Of course, it came back down, but hasn't broken my diag. REE so I'm holding.
I also picked up MLM this morning as it was on my diag. REE- and it's doing well!
I must say...I like buying on my diag. REEs much better- they are more concrete.
REE REE REE - great concept, thanks again!
Posted by Lisa | 10/12/2007 10:53:00 AM
DG-
I forgot to say thanks yesterday for YGE. It's got a nice trend going.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 10:55:00 AM
Raimo-
I second what Bob asked? How do you get service in a tree. I need to be using your service. It's obviously better than mine.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 10:56:00 AM
Chris-
Glad you get the opportunity to trade full time for 3 weeks. Can we look forward to more "angry trader" stories?
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 10:57:00 AM
Yesterday I only sold off a few positions and those were because they broke my mental stops. I was tempted to sell off everything but since most of my trades were still intact despite the selling I kept them. I did however buy a few dips. Today it's paying off but we'll see what happens later. In the meantime I've got all my alerts set and then I'll react to whatever happens.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 11:02:00 AM
Check out JWN today. It's crossing 43.75 (previous low) with some big volume today.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 11:08:00 AM
Lis,
I also got stopped out of AMZN yesterday. I don't see any diaganol support where it is today.
Are you using a one-year chart?
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:09:00 AM
liz,
The Angry Trader just sort of appears... I only write them on weekends to protect the integrity of the blog.
Raimo has AT&T's "Tree Service" I believe. It uses the tree as an antenna, and if you're in a forest it multiplies the signal. You know the saying "I can't see the forest for the trees?" It's because they're all antennae!!! There are no trees!! Talk about your inconvenient truth!! Global warming has nothing on this.
You can thank me later.
I've been chasing SPLS and WNR all morning. Fianlly got filled on WNR. Still waiting patiently for SPLS. I really want to get a couple more puts as I'm not convinced the bull will continue it's run. This'll put me at 5 puts and 8 calls. Then I can sit out the weekend with a clear concience.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 11:12:00 AM
I think PCP stands for Piss Chris the Pilot off. OK it's a stretch, but it's not bouncing off it's support. I may have to cut it from the team today.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 11:17:00 AM
Michelle,
You have to remember though, GOOG missed estimates by 3 cents, or was basically in line with them, when people were expecting an upside surprise.
This time over earnings I think there is a more favorable chance of a gap up, however it is still risky. Since it has run up into earnings it could be sell on the news, however if it beats by a decent amount people will think everything is fine again after they had spent too much money last quarter. I'd say if you have GOOG and you are in the money going into earnings with time, you can hold.
again just my opinion. If GOOG consolidates here until earnings or pulls back beforehand I think you will see a gap up on a good upside surprise with higher guidance, just seems to be how it goes.
THe market expectation was just super high last time.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:24:00 AM
Chris,
Don't chase your WNR, it only gets you in trouble.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 11:24:00 AM
Perfect entry today on FARO, if you're into that sort of thing.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 11:26:00 AM
Good grief, Sean! I spit water onto the monitor. LOL
Check out FIG, looks like the handle is forming on a cup and handle. I'm watching for a breakout.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 11:36:00 AM
Michelle
Yes, I drew a diag. line starting at the lowest point in March. I also drew a horz. line at the tops of 7/25,26. I know the horz. isn't very strong, but I'm using it.
Posted by Lisa | 10/12/2007 11:40:00 AM
Sean-
That was funny!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 11:42:00 AM
Hey Laney,
Can a cup and handle form a the bottom of a down trend (I haven't had advanced technicals yet :))
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:43:00 AM
Chris that reminds me of a product I developed once were the Exec VP wanted to name it Product Information Search System and use a toilet as the logo. I was young out of college but still did not see the humor in "my baby" getting that wonderful name. Are you in your PJs with the big S on front - Super trader?
Liz maybe you and I need a fake tree between us somewhere. I see one on the side of the 60 freeway we just have to figure out how to connect to it.
I see many REE trades and am trying to balance my account a bit more but some of these bull REEs are like low hanging fruit.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 11:48:00 AM
Ben,
I am not playing GOOG. Was just mentioning it in case others weren't aware of last earnings. Who knows, it may gap up this time. Somebody is making boo-koos of money on it, though. Go GOOG players.
Lis,
I hope it holds support for you. I played it since they mentioned it awhile back on Marketcast, and it broke the trend I have for it yesterday. Moved my money someplace else for now.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:49:00 AM
Bob (and Pam),
I'm lookin for REE's today. What tickers you lookin at? :) (If you're superstitious and don't want to share, I understand!)
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:50:00 AM
Ok more warped humor. There is a guy that I see on the freeway from time to time that has a new Porsche with the tag THX SPX. Sean if you made enough from a WNR trade to buy a new car what would the tag be? Sorry, but you started this.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 11:51:00 AM
Bob,
I can think of a few I would not want even if I made big bucks on WNR, such as:
WNRLVR
WNRMAN
SHRTWNR
etc.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 11:57:00 AM
Krystal,
Not sure I am ready to give out ideas as my success rate is not that greatest yet and most are in Jeff's watchlist anyway. Here are a couple:
SIGM, JCP, AMZN, GNK, JCP, PNR, FARO (Brett's), MTW (DG's I think). Watching OI, GME, MMP, SPLS, ELON, NVDA, RAVN and others.
FULL Disclaimer here.....I am currently not in any of these.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 11:58:00 AM
CLEAN CUPS!!!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 11:58:00 AM
clean cups
Posted by sue | 10/12/2007 11:58:00 AM
Sean, and I was just thinking THX WNR!
Way too much creativity in this community for me to keep up with.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 11:59:00 AM
Bob (and Pam), I want to meet that guy with the Porsche! That's my motivational picture I keep next to my monitor. Right now my license tag says WITCH-1 but if I ever get my Porsche, it will probably say THX OA!
Patti, on YGE I see what you're saying about the wild swings. Before yesterday, that stock wasn't even on my radar. After I read about it and saw the chart and saw it was right on diag. REE I jumped in. I didn't like this morning's down draft but it never came close to crossing the line so I'm keeping it. The recent increase in volume tells me that institutions are just getting in. Barring a big correction, which I know could happen at any moment, it should give me a nice ride for a while.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 12:09:00 PM
SNDA looks like a decent bounce today. It's faded from morning highs to the trend line I drew line and is heading back up. Just bought calls on the SPY as well as it is sitting at H&D support.
Peter
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:12:00 PM
Any good put plays out there today??
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 12:30:00 PM
Brett - CTX might be a good one.
Posted by Scoot | 10/12/2007 12:48:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 12:50:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 12:50:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 12:53:00 PM
I am lovin that entry on MTN. I think I will go for a ride. Thanks, Brett.
Posted by Scoot | 10/12/2007 01:35:00 PM
http://www.markbattypublisher.com/jsp/buytramadol/#0249 tramadol dosage overdose - tramadol no prescription cod
Posted by Anonymous | 3/19/2013 10:45:00 AM