I am long AMZN. The stock is down and my option is gaining value. I checked out the I.V. because I figured that was the reason behind the option gaining value. I was right on. I.V. is increasing. I have traded OTM options for about a month and I am loving it. It is taking a while to get used to, but today is confirmation that I am getting it and profitting from it.

Sue, thank you!

Jeff, looking forward to the video! Thank you!
Amy

thanks Jeff.

BTW black screen again, in fact last 2 weeks, and no you tube file.

Jeff, your efforts are ALWAYS appreciated. You give lots of information for us to study and make our own trades with your input.
Thanks,

WOW! What a list! Now the hard part, trying to choose the best ones for me. Thank you, Jeff!!

JK,
I will take a bucket of calls and puts. Thanks for the effort on this HUGE watchlist. And you know I love the sound effects.

Tierra del fuego

C4

Jeff,

Thank you for another impressive list! I appreciate the time you take to share with us.

--Patti

Awesome watch list Jeff. Love the sound effect and the intro soundtrak is most appropriate, you are super man.

Thanks for the efforts, much appreciated.

Jeff - as usual a top notch effort on the watchlist. Decisions decisions.......

Anybody see GS sitting at strong level of support at 225? Just clicked on this chart by accident, and was, like, whoa.....


Michelle

Great stuff Jeff! Thanks for the efforts.

Mike

Jeff,
Thanks for the effort as always - great stuff!

what do you think of COF and ALL as shorts. I was hoping to see them on your list.
Thanks again.

Jeff, You have really, really, REALLY outdone yourself. Boatloads of great picks and a wad of cash ready to be spent!

Thanks! Kim

Thanks for all your work with the watchlist Jeff!
I like that photo of the warrior at the top. He's ready to chomp down on some trades right now!! AAAAAAAAA!! SFM

Jeff,
Thanks again for the great list. See you all in an hour or so.

Jeff:
Wow! 60 stocks on your watch list and half of them bearish set-ups.

Guess it's time to research these now to see what fits my rules.
Thank you!

Having a small account to deal with (it wasn't always this small), I'm starting by working the strategies here trading only the stocks, not the options.

My question is, can the strategies presented here by Jeff and others (ie. REE, RTR, breakouts, support bounce, etc) work simply using the underlying stocks, albeit at much lower profit than the options? How would you modify your trading plan to work with stocks vs. options?

Thanks!

Matt,

I personally don't think you need to modify with the stock. Price on the stocks is how we evaluate all our option trades,,so just trading the stock the same way will work just fine.

Matt,
In honor of your only trading stocks, I offer RRST for your perusal. Bouncing off support today nicely in a big way and no options.

Jumped into AZO puts (Nov 125 @ $5.20). Looks like its upward run is over and it's headed back into the ditch.

The last couple of days I've been holding onto naked calls on BSC. It's exciting to watch the fuse burn down on a stick of dynamite but I'd better be ready to throw it at a moments notice.

AZO,

Just to throw my two cents here, AZO broke out of a huge channel in '06, retested that old resistance line as support now at 107ish this past Sept, and broke a downsloping Diag trendline a few weeks ago. I also have a weaker HZ support line at 121ish.....and the up volume has been stronger than this recent down volume. I see a bull flag potentially forming..so keep a tight rein on your puts...

Jeff - great as usual.

Matt, I'm right on my trades about 35% of the time. The last month, it's been more like 70%. But I've been very profitable at 35% because I keep the losses small. When the trade goes against me, if there's not a very compelling reason to stay in, I get out. It can be a real effort to keep your conviction when you have 3 or 4 or 5 losers in a row. But it's always that 6th trade that you didn't take that would have made up for all the losers. That's why it's so critical to develop a system and trade it.

I heard somehwere (maybe the 3 day live class) that it takes 50 consistent trades in a system to determine if that system will be profitable. However most traders abandon their system after 3 or 4 losers.

Keep up with the blog, there are so many good ideas and great setups that come from this site.

GS may be breaking out on the Fed Meeting Minutes.

POT is smoking today.

Michelle

Well Jeff, you did it. You've provided far more trades than I have money. Now I have to shuffle through all these gold nuggets and pick out the very best and brightest. Gee whiz, life is tough!

You only made one mistake. CSH should be in your bearish list, not your bullish list. It must continue to go down because I hold puts on it!
Thanks again and again,
Stan

Raimo- On AZO I'm trading this the same way I do bear flag plays, I will only continue to hold it as long as it closes lower than the previous days high. I'm hoping to see it stair step down to my target of $110 but I'll take anything I get between now and then.

I am upset POT never pulled back to my buy point, oh well, i'll just have to wait some more.

Thanks a lot Jeff for the watch list, gave me some good bearish ideas I was looking for.

I laughed multiple times at the comments and sound effects especially "that's what she said". LOL.

Stan, I am fairly certain Jeff had CSH as a bearish play.

Ben

*********attention********

hey everyone,,,look to the right,,,there is a link to nominate this blog for best business blog,,,,I think we owe it to Jeff to nominate him

Here's the sympathy news that may be propelling DRYS higher:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap3zPbK396CU&refer=home

GSF - from Jeff's list. It is right at REE (DEE, MEE, whatever)but I recall trading this back in July and I thought it was either a takeover or merger. Did that deal go through? Could that be a factor going forward in this play or is that out of the picture now?

Matt,
This is what I do and that is not saying much.

With stock, I tend to hold the position for longer than I do with my options. I tend to hold my options from 5-50 days, and I can hold my stock, like Blue Phoenix, until it hits $1000, or forever.

Th difference between the two is how much if a loss I am willing to take. On Options if the common closes 1-2% below support I'm out. I also tend to be in more REE and bounce trades with options.

Now with just the common I will let losses go as far a close 3-5% below support. And that seems to be working for me.

Where I need help is on my exits...but that is another post.

Cheers,
C4

FCX broke high/resistance.

Stan,

I hope she cranks lower for ya buddy!!!

Joel R-

Thanks for your comment about being still being profitable when you are 35% right and so on and so forth.....that's just what I needed to hear right now!

Lara

Don't mess with my REE. It is not LEE or MEE, not tea or free, nor is it a mickey dee...LOL...

You makeing me laugh so hard, I have to PEE...

Tried to vote but since I'm not at my computer I can't get the confirmation email to sign up. It will have to wait until later. I am surprised to see that there is only 1 vote for Jeff so far! Come on people!! Get on it!!!

Sue,

Thanks for the heads up. I just voted.

Anu

Woah! What is going on? All of my positions are doing what they are supposed to. NILE is one weird moving stock.


Great list, Jeff. Thanks, as always!

DRYS: It's insane!!!! Where will it stop? It's like I won the lottery on that one!

-steven

Someone tell us where to vote 'cause I can't find it.

At the bottom by Jeff's Disclaimer- on the right. It says Vote for Me

I just voted! WHOOO HOOO!

To vote you can also go tho the link for the blogger awards and there is a box to enter the blog you want to search for. Once you put Option addict there it will pull up this blog and you can vote for the blog as the best business blog without having to sign in. If you want to vote for it as the best in other categories then you have to sign in etc.

Anu

Thanks for everyone's help and comments. I hope to not be trading the common for a whole lot longer while I build confidence and continue to refine my system. Hopefully before long I'll be able to contribute more here than just mooching off of you.

Yesterday it was between POT and SNDA. I chose SNDA....I chose poorly! :{

Hey Matt, have you done much paper trading?

I'm a newbie too, and after many, many losses, I'm still trading my real account, but also paper trading to learn some lessons in the meantime. If you papertrade, you can kinda track what would have happened had you taken the trade for real, and that has helped me out. For example, I got into AAPL for a paper trade, and now I'm kicking myself as it goes higher and higher and higher...

Wait, where was I? Oh yeah, learning lessons! Also, paper trading is SOOOO NON EMOTIONAL, and it's helping me to develop the habit of cutting losers QUICKLY and letting winners run, all within the context of my rules and all with no emotion. Plan the trade, trade the plan. I have to keep telling myself that when the emotions try to kick in.

And BTW, I'm kicking myself over POT, too! :)

I;m with Krystal, I just voted also. WHOOO! HOOO! TOOOOOOOO! Question: All I did is hit the "vote for me" button. I didn't see anything else to do. Is that it? Also, we can vote once a day! WHOOO! HOOO! again.

I think the one-on-one coaching is a wonderful idea. I'd have to see about the price though. I'm just now recouping my expenses for IT classes.

Hey, what about the dictionary for new and forgetful OA's to list all our acronyms?

Owning POT and luvin it! Great day in the markets. I haven't had a chance to listen to the video yet. I'll be able to study it tonight.

Happy Trading OA's

Barbara

Barbara

Go BCSI!!!

Add me to the POT kickers. I saw it this morning in pre-market up 2 points and I said I had to wait. Five minutes into trading it was up 3 or more. By the time I decided it was 'safe' to trade, it was already up 4 or 5 pts and I thought it was too late. Sigh. Today was one day when waiting for the end of the day is NOT a good idea.

Raimo,
You are too funny. MEE never worked for me. It is when I learned it as REE that I got it.

MEE just sounds so selfish (laughter.)

Michelle

Krystal-

Yes! I've paper traded for more than two months, grew my account by 25% then switched to real $$ only to put on 5+ losers in a row. I've decided to not papertrade anymore because it simply doesn't deal with the emotional side of trading which is probably more important than the technical side. That's why I'm only trading stocks now and very small position sizes to work my system, slowly deal with the emotions of trading, and not get killed in the process.

While I'm hating missing POT, I am lovin' VMI!

Tried to see the watch list,only get a blank screen.Two weeks in a row now.How do I see this screen.
Thanks

whoops, funny thing, just stopped out on BCSI as I was posting the "GO BCSI" message.

I guess I had the stop set too tight (small profit, not bad).
Still looks like a breakout. I'll look for a retest to get back in.

Dare I say, Go VDSI

Anonymous,

Check the videos out at Youtube, if you are unable to see the one that I have posted.

Several days ago, some talk about avoiding watching the P/L DAY column on the Monitor Tab in TOS software. For me, it can get crazy watching the daily fluctuations of that number.

What I do is go into Setup and change the display to OPEN,YTD. For me it helps with the emotional side of watching your account grow (or fall) daily and concentrate more on the trades and trends.

Barbara, I think the OA dictionary is a great idea.

Matt, I SOOOO agree with you on paper trading. It doesn't address the emotional aspect of trading, which, in my opinion, is what hurt me so badly starting out. I think you and I are both doing it right now, going slowly, treading lightly, and learning from others. :)

Jeff:

Ben ben ben I just wished I bought 10 contracts rather than 5.

Thank you for your hard work

Days like today I struggle on profit taking. I fight the emotion to take profits early when my stocks have not reached their target because "fear" comes in and I think, "The market may bounce tomorrow and my stock may not come back, and that profit turns into nothing." I could use some help getting over the hump here. What have you experienced traders done to keep your account moving up and not cutting your winners short?

Michelle

I am curious where the demand for POT is coming from(I know I set myself up for that). I mean there is zero news yet its way up and I still have no idea what they do as a company.

But either way, Congrats to those in POT!

I am likely going to take down some GS if it closes at a new high.

Guess the bearish plays will have to wait till I can review them tomorrow.

Ben

FCX. Posting a $.31 dividend on 10/11. TOS told me today that the option price will be adjusted down by Dividend x Delta.

So, if my delta is .85, this means that my option would be adjusted down by about $.26. This means that my 9.40 option will go down to about 9.10 if I hold over the dividend payout.

Do I have this right?

Here's a joke my daughter told me the other day:
What did Geronimo scream when he went sky diving?
Answer: MEEEEEEEEEEE!

Raimo,
When we call it MEE, LEE, DEE, or ?EE, it's just paying tribute to your legendary status (in some bizarre way).
Having said that, I'll cease and desist if you wish - it is your patent.

Michelle,
I agree with you about struggling with taking profits. I'm sitting here looking at POT up $8.16 and wondering if I should sell part of my position. I own 100 shares of the stock. I'm kicking myself because yesterday I was thinking of buying some calls on POT.

I've learned to move my stop up close to protect most of my profit and still give it some room to "grow" it that's what it wants to do. If I sell, it will definatly go up! LOL

Barbara

Jeff,

Thanks for a very useful Watch List, as always.

You've got my vote. And I have 4 computers in my house, so I am seriously thinking about voting 3 more times before the day is over. That means you get my vote 4X everyday until....when does this thing end anyway?

VeroBarbara

When I look at the indices, they are looking great, punching out with support and in a bull market in the bullish time of the year. So I think I will just step away.

Michelle

I hate to burst everybody's bubble but the "Vote for Me" button everybody has been using to nominate the blog is not the same thing as the Blogger's Choice Awards button by the Archives link.

You need the Blogger's Choice Awards button. Then search for "OptionAddict" all one word or it won't find it.

I read about a lot of you saying "I wish I had done this"

I am sure most of you don't mean that, but one of the first things you have to do(if I have learned anything from my own self) is stop saying those things, I used to as well. Remember there are plenty of other stocks out there setting up to be another POT, or POT could pull back and let you get in on the next one.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, it will make you second guess all the time and trade emotionally I think if you feel like "oh I'll miss a move like in POT" and you take a risky trade because of it.

I scaled out of my ACH position ahead of AA earnings, sold 5 of my 8 contracts. Normally I would let it ride but I am trying to get back black so I have to be conservative. :-)

Ben

Wow-oh-Wow. Markets just closed leaving me with my biggest day ever. Thanks especially to DRYS, POT, NOV, and BCSI that did the heavy lifting, vaulting me in one day beyond what I used to make in a whole year delivering mail!
I just hope the party continues up until earnings when I will be making a hasty exit, stage right. I'm happy with what I have, no need to get greedy or worse yet, feel sorry for myself with those after-earnings-blues.
Stan

Thanks Ben- some good advice. I've occasionally beat myself up over a trade I didn't take or got out of too early- just have to let it go and move on to the next trade.

TT

Wow. Thanks for the watchlist Jeff. I especially enjoy your sound effects.

Like many, I was thinking about getting into POT yesterday too. Of course, looking back on it, i say I "could've" done it, but I didn't have a target in place. Can anyone who traded POT yesterday share w/ me your target? I realize it was at support, but the target was vague to me. I wish i can just use "up" as a target, but i can't.

I really wanted to buy the option, but felt like i was forcing the trade because I was just stuck on the target. Do you trend trade the option? If so, what month did you buy JAN '08?.... just curious so I can use it on the next trade. Thanks All!

-kevin

Anybody grab the breakout on NTG? Just curious about earnings coming out in 3 weeks and whether that affects your decision to get in or stay out.

- TT

Ben,
Great point about not worrying about missing trades. There are great setups all day every day, and our job is to find them, without succumbing to emotion. Sometimes I have to remind myself of that one.
besides, POT has not gotten away, as I see it. I have a target of $120, and coming off the bull kicker today, it could be off and running. This guy has been a monster before, remember before the stock split.
Thoughts?

You guys can call REE whatever you want, I only care that it works for you and gets you better entry's...

Mark,

I don't know where you draw support on POT, those who thought it was at 103, lets say it was, it is now at 113 about, thats already 10 points into a 17 point move, so you are risking 10 dollars to gain 7 if your target is 120, I would never take that trade(now) using my new approach, sure you could jump in and get lucky, but if it pulls back to support your line is way down at 103.

at 103 it would have been say 2 dollar risk to 17 reward, I will always take that trade.

Just my thoughts, I have entered a new phase and it is called "patience", haha.

Ben

ATTENTION ALL OA's!!!!

I created a facebook group for anyone that uses it, and all can join.

follow the link and feel free to join so I am not all alone :-( I figure this could be a cool way to network more.

Jeff if you are on facebook, feel free to let me know and I can make you admin for that group and you can control content.

http://minnesota.facebook.com/group.php?gid=5270912835

Ben

jeff
awesome watchlist, once i register I will vote for your blog, hopefully that doesnt attract more spamming

Raimo,
thanks for the conversation you had sunday on the blog about buying more than one contract since higher stock prices move more than lower stock prices. (halfa$$ explanation of what you really said) It really rang a bell for me. I had been making a lot of one contract trades but it would be $100 stock like apple and one contract on $30 VIP
ive gone over my positions checked my risks and was able to buy more contracts of some of my lower priced trades. Now I actually have a chance to scale out of something if i want to instead of just watching all my paper profit disappear making me cry.

and thanks to all the OA's, the community as a whole is a huge help and a lot of fun to be a part of

greg h

Jeff HELP THE VOTE - Please clarify.

There seem to be two ways of voting, both showing different results for your blog. One by clicking on Blogger's Choice Awards (you have to create log-in to vote) and the other by clicking on the vote for me link on the bottom of blog. I did both and they show DRASTICALLY different results. Which is the best way? I did Both for good measure. Please advise us option addicts.

MOS - check out the volume on that break out from earnings.

Ben,

Pot was up due to the fact Mos tripled their earnings, as they reported today.


Dan

Ben,
Please let me know the thought process behind your target on POT - establishing target price on a stock making new highs is something I struggle with probably more than anything else. thanks very much.

Late to the party, but what a party it was!!! Every single one of my puts and calls went the right way today. Not "all but one"... every one. How unusual. Same in my RRSP.

You know what's interesting is most of my options are off Jeff's watchlist from last week. I had to pare them down to the ones I liked the best... and the first day I took them I was down big time... but they were all right at REE and have bounced back unbelieveably since then.

I have POT in my RRSP (stock.) POT stock can be used to make soup. But right now I'm using it to make gold. Matt... when I buy stock I worry less about entry and exit. POT is a company that produces potash, which is used by farmers around the globe to fertilize their crops. Crops like corn, wheat, barley, magic mushrooms... virtually anything. And this product is only going to become more and more valuable as we use crops for fuel as well as eating. Buy and hold. For years.

Ick... I'm starting to sound like beanie. Some one kill me.

My account still shows only the 8 contracts on BCSI that I originally had. If it showed the 16 that I now have... I would have been out yesterday as it was going nowhere. Instead I am basking in it's glory. Volume was only 18% above average so I'm a little concerned that this pop may lack conviction (much like my golf game.)

Sorry I gabbed on... I'll stuff a sock in it and go lounge by the pool for a while.

This IS the best trading blog in the universe.
Any help from the OA community on viewing the the video would be helpful. I get audio but a blank screen. I am running an Intel MacBook Pro .Tried to save it as a quicktime but no luck. Using Firefox as my browser. Thank you in advance.

Michelle,

I used to fear my profits blowing up (OK still do). Here is what helps me though. DO NOT think of the stock coming down as losing profits. Look at the retrace as either it will hit my exit rule and I get out of the trade with real money in my account or it is coming down so that it can start back up and I can move my stop up. Either one cannot happen unless the price comes down. If it comes down fast and hard look to see if there were clues that you missed. Learning a lesson is worth more than a couple of hundred bucks. If you didn't miss anything and it came down fast and hard chalk it up to part of the game and realize the next one will be a great one.....

Just the way I am trying to get my head around it.

Jeff,
OK I lied. After saying "someone kill me" I thought Raimo was likely to show up, so I didn't go to the pool. Instead I watched the video.
Un-
Believe-
Able.

You are beyond belief!!! I'm thinking that I might just bail on everything I own and pick the best entries off this list. The great thing is that the 1.8 seconds I had to view each graph already showed me some real winners and some that won't fit my rules.

My head feels like the martians in "Mars Attacks" when they hear music.

POP!!

cashmoney
I some times have trouble viewing clips with Firefox. When I have that trouble I use IE for the browser and it works. Hope that helps.

cashmoney,

The file is a .wmv file so take whatever steps a Mac needs to view it. Not being familiar with a Mac, I would probably make sure that you have a player that will play .wmv files. On Windows XP running IE the file will actually download to the computer if you know where to look. It may do the same on the Mac so you may be able to manipulate the actual file if needed.

Good Luck,

Jim

Michelle,
I have the same issue as you when it comes to banking profit. and rest assured when I hit my targets I will "take my paycheck". I hit one target in 19 positions today. What did I do on the 1 position? I got paid.

A basketball great and tasty caffeine-beverage connisuer, a fine macro-economist, and noble hunter I know all agree on one thing. Take profits, "when and if you hit your plan!"

Now the question of how many to take then is another topic.

Back to sharing your dilemma. I have 18 positions left. 12 of them are really close to their targets, but they are just not there. What do I do? I wait! And it is so hard for me to be patient it hurts! But I believe in order to be successful that is what we have to do.

So share my pain and let's hope we are having the discussion tomorrow, "how many contracts should I sell?".

Jeff,
I have changed my mind. I am glad HANS Java Monster is in an Aluminum can today and not biodegradable plastic.

CHEERS,
C4

PROFIT TAKING

I'll try this again since it seems to be a hot topic..and an area we all run into trouble with. Call this what you want, but you all know I call it RTR, and it is my own personal action point.

Before I put money on the table, be it a stock (which I rarely trade) or an option (I am a true option addict), I always focus on three things BEFORE money is sent out to do battle with those who are trying to take it way from me. And since I have been on the losing side of this, I know how it hurts to lose. So remember, when you put real money on the table, the market has one goal, to take your money. That is how I approach every trade these days.

So, first, how much can I risk (RPRA..raimo portfolio risk analysis), then once I know how much I can risk, and I found a great REE, I determine my target price, BEFORE I place the trade.

Now, once the trade is placed, (I have a line drawn it at my target price), and I reach my RTR (Raimo target reached), that is an action point, and my rule REQUIRES me to take at least half of my dollars that are still AT RISK and turn them into REALIZED GAINS..after all, that is why I work so hard at my trading, I WANT realized gains.

So, RTR, I take half off the table, and pay myself,

The remaining portion of my trade is left to run, and I monitor it and get out when I feel based on my time left on my option and/or the price action itslef is jeopardizing the rest of the trade.

For me, this is a very simple, non-emotional approach, and for me, it works, very well...and best of all, it keeps me consistant.

This is just a part of my rules system, but maybe it can help some of you develope your own method of dealing with taking profits.

Hey Raimo

What does RTR stand for again????





....just kidding....

Raimo,

If you are only trading options most of the time, what percentage of your portfolio do you have at risk at one time? I know that you risk the same amount on each trade as I do.

If this is too personal just say so. No offense taken.

Dan and I just funded a larger account and we have been discussing how to parcel up the portfolio between options, stocks, etc. which is what has me asking....

Thanks, Kim

Thanks, Flying Pro, Arty and Raimo.
Boy, that emotion thing gets in the way and all reason just seems to fly out the window. Sometimes I have to hear things over and over and over again.

Raimo, thanks again for posting that again. I am going to print it and put it in my trading book.

Chris,
You are too funny.

Michelle

I think Jeff and Eric were smoking something during Market Cast.
Hilarious!!!!

What a way to end, with laughter.

Michelle

Jeff-

Thanks for being such a great teacher. Dan and I just listened to the Open House for High Probability Trading where the TOS guy used as his first example an Iron Condor Spread to show in a simple manner how to combine price patterns with selecting and option strategy in TOS using the analyze tab.

Ridiculous. There was no such thing as a step by step approach in this call. I'm off to do something better with my time.

Kim

Raimo,
Thanks for the the RTR refresher. You recognize the "Take your paycheck" concept?

And what is REE?

Cheers,
ARTY

Darn, I forgot about the open house thing. Wanted to see that one. Does anybody know if it will be archived to view again?

Off to hit the dance floor. Will catch the Marketcast when I get back.

DG,
Jeff open house is on Oct 22nd not today.

there are open houses every week now but they other people doing them, Dave Johnson did it last week.

DJ, The open house is supposed to be taped. I'd love to hear your take on it. We bailed after 25 minutes.

VA Beach Girl,

I listened to it a few weeks ago when they had it--at least I think it was the same one. I am not sure I even made it 25 minutes. I agree--much better ways to spend the time. Got nothing out of it.

I listened to Dave Johnson's Technical Analysis open house last week. That one wasn't bad, but still felt like my "trading" time would be better spent elsewhere.

Mark,

POT is somewhat difficult actually, that is not a very clear cut example. I was just using your examples for numbers.

However, on second look, I may have to revise my previous statement about not taking the trade.

If you take this trade, and I may be as well, since it just made a new high, I would use that as the new line in the sand.

For previous support I was using the statistic that stocks that break 100 usually do not go back below, so I was hoping for a re-test of 100 or very close to 100 to get into the trade, it got down to 102 which in all honesty I should have taken, if I didn't already have 6 bullish positions at the time.

So, looking at it now I would say it is a decent position to get in if you set your line at about the old high, so you are only risking a dollar or so to make it to 120, a 1:7 risk reward is very good.

A 10 point movement seems reasonable in a month as of late so your target of a 7 dollar move is probably good.

So, I think you are on the right track, my apologies for not realizing the new all time high.

Hope that helps that is basically my thought process now if I were to get in on the trade.

maybe others thinking about it could post as well.

Ben

Mahmood,

Did I say it was today somewhere?

If so I can correct my mistake.

Jeff

Ben,
re: POT
Absolutely no apologies necessary here! I know that I'm learning, and will continue to learn as long as I trade.
The new high is what I was looking at, and I agree that at 102 this was a home run.
Part of my thinking on POT also has to do with how on fire this sector is, and the way this stock has historically behaved. I know these things might be getting away from strict REE's, but there are some stocks that are just freaks, and this is one of them. This thing might go to a million.

Jeff,
no you did not. But it seems people are thinking it was today. In fact on the Marketcast you actually mentioned that it was in 2 weeks.

Sorry if I caused more confusion

Michelle,

I agree...Jeff and Eric were buck wild today, even more so than usual. Part of me thought that Jeff was just excited to have Eric back... and I was, too. I love the way they play off of each other. You can tell they're buds...bff...awww

VMW powering thru as the next GOOG>

I listened to both TOS high probility and the one on TOS analysis tab today (not the one Jeff mentioned). The analysis tab one was ok and the high probablity ended up being a sales pitch for the $6000 class which I do not mind really knowing it was free. Once I have more consistent success in my current trading I will be all over more education but I would pick personal coaching with Jeff over all these. Anyone do these high probability trades successfully?

Damn this whole college thing, I want to listen to the market cast.

I wonder if the teacher would be offended if I had my earbuds in and laughed out loud during class? :-)

Hmm, oddly enough beanie may have come up witha decent stock pick, lol.

VMW, did just break over 100 on heavy volume, damn all these possible bullish ideas! haha.

Ben

I you are wondering why POT went up so much today it is obvious there were more buyers than sellers. And I think I have a good idea where most of the buyers were.....behind the desk of the Marketcast.

Cheers,
C4

Can we get a little support for Jeff and the blog on the blogger choice awards? It is embarrassing out there. Those awards are a reflection of us too you know!

Know let's get it on.

Cheers,
C4

Bob-
Just to let you know: I answered your question about DRYS and EXM in the thread where you asked the question. I think that was 2 threads ago.

liz

Man, I have just now caught up on the last four days of blogging. Been away because of crazy busy-ness.

Jeff, I am in for the open house and also thanks for the great watchlist and also the personal coaching is a great idea.

Raimo, thanks for all of your helpful comments. The way you phrase things really helps me. I have been concentrating on discipline lately and I love your soldier illustration. It is truly a battle. Every dollar is at war and the enemy is out to destroy.

Emotion can kill us, guys. That emotion might be the result of bad trades or the result of good trades. When I'm doing well, it is easy to start taking entries in things that aren't as good and that's when I get slammed.

Several comments made about "missing trades." I agree with whoever said, you can't let that bother you. Lots of trades never fit my entry rules but they go up like crazy. No problem here. That's just the way it works

Some trades do fit my rules and I hesitate and don't take them. That's when I pay attention because that is a trading mistake. But still, as with any mistake, can't let it affect you to the point of making bad decisions. Just learn from it and move on.

Raimo,

I am hurt. I put my heart and soul into insulting you in my last poem and not even an "ata-boy"??

PP

Yea Tim, that was me who said that. I was trying to help keep things in perspective, I did that for a while.

It was like a rocking chair, gave me something to do but didn't get me anywhere.

can anyone name the movie that is from? haha

Ben

REE vs. MACD/STO

One thing I've noticed when trying to place my entries near the exit (REE), is that it often conflicts with MACD and STO signals. What to do? what to do? In fact, MACD and STO often conflict with lots of ideas Jeff throws out there. How do you guys reconcile that? Ignore it and only use the chart? Just wondering cuz of all the confusing signals out there

Jeff, Mahmood, I knew that tonight's open house wasn't Jeff. I had it in my calendar from an email I got a week ago but forgot about it. I will watch it when I get a chance. I've seen a couple of TOS presentations that went way beyond what I thought I needed to know but I have also found that each time I hear one, I "get it" a little more. There is always some kernel I can take away.

Keep in mind the TOS mind set is not charts and REE. It is totally based on numbers and probabilities. At the Orlando conference in February they did a demo with Tim Knight from Prophet and Tom Sosnoff from TOS looking at the same stock in a sort of duel. They come from a different angle but they get to the same place - taking money out of the market.

What we're doing here mostly (especially with buying OTM options) is not high probability trading. Selling premium and watching it melt is HP trading. I love swing trading but I also want to be able to change strategies as market conditions vary. Whatever floats yer boat, I say.

jeff.....i'm running a little behind tonight....just finished watching the watchlist.....thanks for all the work you put into the blog....i think we all have been hunting some bearish ideas and you delivered tons !!!

have a good evening and/or morning (everyone)

KOP... is getting close to being a breakout, well actually it closed above $40 today, but without volume, so i am still watching to see what tomorrow brings

BCSI....this little devil is trying to breakout, i sold my calls a few days back when it closed below my exit point, but i am watching for re-entry....maybe tomorrow $43.50-ish is my entry point

ATI....i know some are already trading this one, it is getting close to that old resistance area, once it breaks above i'm getting in

ok, i'm out....once again "drink more JAVA MONSTER"
do you think they will use that line in the remake of the christmas story???

Ben,
Interesting take on POT. Mine is still different. I took a trade in POT back at the last breakout in mid September. My entry was a break over 90 with volume. My target then was 105. It did those 15 points in 4 days and I exited (they were Oct calls anyway). I was looking for a re-entry on this recent flag breakout at 105 which happened today when it gapped open. But I couldn't tell about the volume until a little later and by then it was up over $5 and never looked back.

I have no idea how to determine a target for a stock that is breaking to new highs and is already at high end of its channel.

DG,
Excellent analysis. I was impressed with TOS in Orlando in that they were using a real trading account and making these wild purchases using only probabilities. They'd look at a contract and find one that showed a high probability of finishing ITM and POOF!!! they bought it. It took 30 seconds. No analysis... no wondering about REE... just look for the probability being over a certain number and BUY!!! He claimed they had started with a $100,000 account at the beginning of the year and by just zotting off these trades in the demos... the account was at $285,000 when I saw it in February.

Jeff, when you asked if you said it was today somewhere, you really confused me. I'm in Las Vegas and it's today here. No apology necessary. I'm pretty certain it's today everywhere. Except for Newfoundland where it's 30 minutes later. So it could actually be tomorrow. But that's OK because they tend to drink quite a bit which slows them down... probably by pretty close to 30 minutes. So it's today there, too.

Did I clear that up?

Is no one listening to me? POT has no end in sight. It has tripled this year and will continue to do so until the cows come home. And when they do, they will have to wipe their little hooves on the doormat because they'll be covered in POTASH!!! which is what POT makes. Well... they actually mine the stuff. Nonetheless it will be all over every hoof, ear of corn, sheaf of wheat, and wimple, on the face of the planet. Buy now or regret later.

Disclaimer. The author of this posting possesses vast sums of POT stock and stands to reap tremendous rewards should you buy it and drive the price even higher. This should in no way prevent you from mortgaging your house, your spouse, and your children to buy more POT.

Matt-
I've been noticing the same thing- I know that Jeff intentionally never does any presentations with the MACD and STO because he doesn't use them. I guess it comes down to your trading rules and whether or not you want to use those indicators. I do think that your rules for stocks and options may be completely different, so that's one way to avoid some conflicts. Perhaps some of the OA regulars could comment?

- TT

So how right were Jeff's picks of the day?

As an active trader with too much free time on my hands I did a quick end of day addition of Jeff's winning and losing picks. I may have missed a few but unofficially he got 33 right and 17 wrong by the end of the day. If you bought one share of each of the stocks you would have won $41.72 on the winners and lost only $6.94 on the losers, about a 6-1 winning ratio. If you would have bought one contract of at the money options on all those (assuming they are all optionable) with a delta of .50 you would have cleared $1739 less commissions. The next day you would have cut your losers short and let your winners run.

To be fair, he did not say to buy all these right now, most were supposed to be watched for the correct entry point and one, WBD, he specifically said a few dollars more to the downside would be a better entry point so I left it out entirely. So even though many of these trades may have been grossly anticipatory, I found it interesting that as usual, his picks really kick butt.
Stan

J.K.

You have out done yourself, Thanks a $million$ You amaze me.

Hammer

Great list...equally great sound effects!

Matt, TT,

The reason most here on the blog don't use the MACD/STO is because those indicators are lagging the price action and if you wait for the indicators, the price action could and is, in most cases, out of reach for a good entry at REE.

In other words, price action is the best indicator of where the stock is going to go.

Matt and TT,
No one should be trying to figure stuff like this out at this time of the day. But here goes. Jeff doesn't use MACD and STO because they are both reactive indicators. They show what has already happened... in some cases several days ago. If you use them... you're using last week's news. It's hard to make money that way.

Some people on the blog like to see either or both of them rolling over, to indicate a change in direction... it's what works best for you. If they roll over, there's no guarantee that it'll continue in that direction... because it's only showing what happened to the stock already.

I've been up for 23 hours now, so that probably makes no sense... to you. It's perfectly logical to me.

I must get myself to bed as I think I'll have some selling to do tomorrow. I'm working really hard to get my exits pegged. I know I can lock in profits... just don't want to lock out bigger profits. Although with a watch list like this weeks... I could easily get into a bunch more.

Hey Logan,
What are you doing up at this ungodly hour? Looks like our answers match. Cool. Someone should be proud of us.

Other than my mom.

Chris,

At least I have an excuse because it is only 10:47 here in the Upper Left Side. I just finished a trading room, the blog watchlist and marketcast. Now I have to look at all the tickers on JK's watchlist to see how many I will like. Probably close to ALL of them. Then I need to set up my trading plan for tomorrow by mid night. I haven’t even looked at the blog action from today other than the past twenty or so posts. That I probably won’t get too…

If I stay up too much longer, my immune system resistance could end up down a little more than it is right now and I could get the fever and pukes my wife came down with this afternoon. I will be staying away from here other than the dinner I delivered bedside several hours ago.

Doji Girl,

Yea, I would have much rather gotten in on it on a 90 break out because that was the most convincing in my opinion, so you were on top of it.

For the the 100 re-test, that would have been going with statistical probability.

Using a new high as the line, on this particular trade I will admit, may be a little premature since it hasn't retested, and it only used it as resitance at one point, however, like we discussed before, a lot of it is actually just having a plan and gettin gout with a small loss.

So, I am not giving myself much downside by getting in here, I am assuming an aggressive move up, but I still risk the same if I follow rules of selling if it goes below.

We'll see if I take it, I am more inclined to take GOOG and GS first, that is if GOOG drops closer to 600 a bit.

POT just seems to be on everyone's wanted list though, don't fight the trend, afterall we are in a bull market. ;-)

Ben

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This comment has been removed by the author.

Wow! Great to see all the new blood on the blog lately! Welcome to all!

Thank you all for the emails. I'm sorry I haven't been here in a couple of days. I've been focusing on my trading, getting sharper and sharper and really pushing it. It doesn't matter how well you do, you always need to work harder.

Keep up the good blogging! I'll be here.

THE PHOENIX.

Chris? Is it officially tomorrow?
Thanks for the early morning laughs!

Brett,

The Phoenix tag is great, I like it.

You are the man! All of the time people want to "Trade for a living". By trading or a living you have the easy life.....

If that is true, how come you beat me to the computer most mornings? When I get time off of work I usually do better in the markets. That seems to be because rather than going to work I spend the day working on findng good set-ups, or running the complete #'s to get the strike with the best R/R..

Keep up the good work and thanks for putting it on the line and throwing out a gem here and there.

Tom

Tom,

The reason it seems like I have the 'easy life' is because I live for what I do. When your hobby and your career are one and the same, your life feels like a vacation 24 hours a day. But that only makes the work seem easier. It doesn't actually make it easier. I beat you to the computer because I wake up before 5 am most mornings and can't wait to get to the office.

This is one of the only careers I know of where the harder you work on your skills the more money you make. The reason I believe most traders fail is that they work hard, but never actually improve. When I finish a month, no matter how good it is, the next month I begin with a clean slate and a target on my back. I may have a losing week, but I spend the entire weekend reviewing my failures and have to come back strong the next week. This is the reason I haven't had a losing month since February.

Think of trading like boxing. You're going to take a lot of shots, and you may get knocked down a few times. As long as you avoid the knockouts and deliver a lot of shots of your own, you're going to win the fight.

With all the new traders here now, I hope everyone is doing well, but also managing their risk. I've traded through a few nasty corrections, and we're going to get another one at some point too, and unfortunately it washes a lot of newbies out of the market entirely. My advice is to close each trading day knowing that a 500 point drop in the market won't wipe out your trading capital tomorrow.

Thanks again, Tom. And please, for Heaven's sake, shield your eyes from the flames of THE PHOENIX!

The EASY LIFE, LOL..,,,

Boy don't I wish. I've been doing this full time for nearly 2 and half years, and it is tough work. The more I know, the more I want to know..and that takes dedication, and passion. I completely agree with Brett, there is a passion for some to trade, and when that passion is combined with hard work, dedication, it pays off, and that applys to any career path.


And though this is phyiscally EASY compared to my former life of retail and construction, it is without question way more demanding both physcologically and emotionally.

By the days end, I am EXHAUSTED.

And let me say this to the new traders on the blog. I am just beginning to learn, and I have been doing this full time for 2 1/2 years. I clearly understand how new traders wipe out accounts and throw in the towel. I recall reading on this blog someone had said that Jeff, Brett and I were lucky...

No, we are not. We worked hard to get to wherever it is we are. Luck is not in my equation, not at all.

The best education I got...Jeff Kohler and his blog, and unfortunately bad trades, and lots of them.

Believe you can, believe you can't. Either way you are right.

Thanks Guys,

I can feel what you are talking about. I had 3 great months and decided I needed more classes at IT. Then last month I got out of two winning trades after nt liking the way the candles looked. On both trades they crashed the very next day. That was the day I decided I needed Murphy's TA book. I have been chewing thru that this week.

either of you have a tak on VLO?

flying Pro,

VLO is interesting, but there are better trades out there. Look at the 5 yr and 6 month chart on CRK for example..same industry group as VLO....

Flying Pro-

The chart on VLO looks great, but refiners are not the darlings of wall street any more. Look at WNR, for example.

I agree with Raimo. CRK was lodged in between 1400 stocks on Jeff's video yesterday, but it's very impressive looking both on the 3-month and the 5-year.

Matt,
I like to use MACD/ Stoc more as confirming indicators than a reason for getting into a trade. I just added to my HANS position when it was down on Monday although the MACD and stoc were well above what I would take as an entry.

I like to see the MACD shortening and getting ready to go from red to black or vise/versa for buying puts and calls. Because I am still so new at this, I like the extra confirmation. That's also the reason I use Fibs to help me set targets. When in doubt I use the studies.

Clear as mud? :-)

And as I type this, CNBC is reporting VLO guided lower this morning.

Brett,
Glad you're back!

On CRK, it looks to be flagging (I don't remember Jeff giving this one, there were so many) where would you say the flagpole began, on 10/1 or 10/5?
10/1, right?

Laney,

Yes, it's flagging, but i see it at support on the 5-year. The flag broke through resistance, and it's retesting now.

CRK - on the 5 year it has spent most of the time vascillating between 25 & 35. It is now a few cents short of its high in a flag but I think it goes down before it goes up.
Just my .02.

Mahmood and Jeff-

The open house we were talking about was the High Probability Open House which was last night at 8pm. But trust me, you really didn't miss anything worth your time.

Kim

Brett,

That as what I was looking for on VLO. I have been long for about a week. Looks like 1/2 of my profit will be gone at 8:31 today. Hoping to get out quick.

Matt,

I do not use MACD or Sto at all now... and I'm on a winning streak!

I think it depends moreso on your style of trading, though. If you've used them and found them helpful, then by all means keep using them. But as others have said, they're lagging indicators. If you want to use them, maybe consult them only for secondary confirmation of your analysis?

BTW, do you use moving averages? Jeff has an archive about moving averages. I use the 30 day moving average IF it is truly acting as support. If not, I draw in my own trendline in ProphetCharts and use THAT as an indicator. In fact, the trendline I drew in on ELON kept me in it on 9/28 when many got out. And it's paid off, as you can see by the chart. (Now if the doggone thing would break out already!) So see if you can find the "niche" that works for you!

Hope this helps. :)

Last time I took that high probability open house from TOS it was not that great. They talked a lot about Iron condors on the spy. If I remember correctly, they gave an example of selling the 155 spy call, and that did not work out. Iron condors are great if the market is in a range, but who knows, I got burned bad on them one time and that is all it took.

Hava a look at AMX here, also I mentioned it before NM at 13 but there could be another action point today.

I will second what Kim said about last night's Open house. If you are an eighty year old looking to preserve your life savings, not willing to take any risk, and love to put on exotic strategy plays, then this was for you. If, on the other hand, you trust your technical analysis, understand risk management, greeks and position sizing, then it was a waste of time...

Let me clarify for everyone:

This is a no condor, no butterfly zone. No flying birds here. We might 'spread' our wings occasionally when the wind suits us, but only as a penguin might. Forget the eccentric commission-generating strategies.

I'm partially kidding here. If you want to talk about these strategies, go ahead, but you will likely only be providing entertainment. The same entertainment I received when I logged off that presentation about 46 seconds after it began yesterday.

In this bull market, those trades are a waste for option addicts, unless of course you're addicted to leaving hefty profits on the table. 'High-probability trading'? They should have named the presentation 'high-commision trading'.

THE PHOENIX.

Doji??

Are u bearish on CRK??

Brett, that was too funny!

Raimo,
I'm not bearish enough to take a trade but I am not taking a bullish one on it either. My indicators say down before up but not enough to take a stand either way. And hey, I've been wrong before!

Has anyone ever seen a stock move slower than ELON...

Oh....My....Gosh....

Doji...

Hey, been there, done that (being wrong!!)

CRK ..I am very bullish, and will prob get in today...higher highs and lows, and broke above resis on huge volume....and flagging at support...well, that is my read anyway..

DSX - continues to amaze me. I have a 60% profit on this STOCK trade. Same industry as DRYS.

Raimo,

Is there any "rule of thumb" for the amount a stock can flag for a bounce?

VeroBarbara

BCSI - Thank you to whomever put that in front of me yesterday!

Krystal, ELON moves slow? It's moved pretty quickly from $18 to $30, if you ask me.

If you want action, look at CPSL! Loving this one.

BCSI and SOHU not bad either.

Some great ideas today for all of you:

COGT...yes, still.

CTL..sym triangle breakdown

HDNG...sym triangle breakout with massive target.

IRIS...yeah, i've been on this one for awhile but i love it.

TDG...awesome flag break, still viable entry.

WG..just marking time after a great saucer/handle breakout. Nice target here too.

and of course...THE PHOENIX.

Vero Barbara,

I'm not Raimo, but it is my understanding that flag patterns are normally supposed to be completed within 1-3 weeks...

Raimo--please correct me if I'm wrong!

DG,
I jumped into BCSI yesterday too. Awesome...

VMW hotter than JLo?

whoo hoo!

They think it's the next GOOG or something of that sort.

Brett,
If this is a bird-free zone, do I have to exit...

THE PHOENIX?

I'm headed for the easy life soon. I go from Las Vegas to Toronto, to Vancouver today... then home on the red-eye Thursday night... then I'm off for 3 1/2 weeks, where I will put on my Superman costume and become Supertrader. This will be my intro to trading full time. I can't wait. And my Supersidekick Catherine might even be around. We will call ourselves the Dynamic Duo and crush evil with our hammers. It will be, (as someone once said), Hammer Time.

Meantime... back at the outhouse... things are piling up. I have trades to analyse and exits to strategise. Analasys's to theorize, and poetry to plagerize. Airplanes to fly in the skies, and hamburgers to eat with fries.

Don't start without me.

How do I find out what who a stock belongs to? FOr instance, CAT is a DOW stock. How do I find this information for other stocks?

Chris,

You were right again. I woke up this morning and it was today here too!

Laney,

I think all DOW ticker symbols are 3 letters and the NASDAQ 4. I don't know about the other ones...

Jeff, Brett, Raimo, is this right?

Not true. Some Dow stocks have 1 letter like C and T, some have 2 like DD and BA, and some have 3 like MRK and MMM. And guess what? INTC and MSFT have 4.

Ohhhhhh...I stand corrected, Laney.

:)

Brett & Raimo-
Thanks for the very insightful comments this morning on trading.

liz

Laney,

You can see the exchange that the stock belong to on the Trade page of the TOS platform.

Also it is there on the quotes page on the invetools site.

Someone asked about PCU yesterday. I got in on Wednesday, I think it was, and was disappointed as it dropped for three days in a row. But my REE was a bit foggy on this one and I really didn't believe it had broken the trend... so I held it with a small loss over the weekend. 120 (ish) proved to be support and now it's taking off.

FCX is another great copper play that Jeff and Eric like. It's doing the same thing... but personally I like PCU's graph better. Sorry Jeff.

I was going to look at what I need to sell today... but everything but BOOM, BIIB, and OI is up... again!!!

Could someone look at BOOM and tell me what they think about an exit strategy. If I'd been around before close yesterday I might have gotten out because of the spinning top doji on weaker volume. In hindsight it looks like the spike had lost steam. Yesteday I had about 75% profits... today it's about 20%. It hasn't broken the trend... but earnings are coming up. I'm tempted to let it run towards earnings (unless this red candle crashes through the trendline) as volatility should be building. I'd probably get out around 52.50 if it claws it's way back to that before earnings.

Any thoughts?

Talk about being addicted... I've been sick now for two days and I'm still checking out what's going on and placing trades. All with a sinus infection. Now, that could be bad or good because I am a little dizzy and I could be seeing trend lines and horizontal lines where there are none. ;)

Can I say how much I love DRYS and FCX.

Though, I would like some more info about dividends and how that will affect my options. Somebody brought that up yesterday and I don't think there was a clear cut answer.

Anybody? Anybody?

liz

Jeff-
Didn't say it earlier but thanks so much for the great watch list and I sent you an email in regards to one on one coaching.

liz

Sean and Amy I should point out in Tokyo and Australia it's actually tomorrow. But Australia is upside down... so tomorrow is the same as today. Tokyo has no real excuse... but I'm pretty sure Saki is involved.

Brett, it's great to have you back. You and Raimo put on a real clinic this morning. Thanks to you both. You talk about learning all the time... you guys plow more into this blog than most books I've read... put together (well... except for Bambi Meets Godzilla. It's bretty hard to beat that one for sheer content.)

Brett,
great comments about high probablity trading. There is a time and a place for everything. In a strongly trending market like now, doing condors will kill you (I know from last year's experience). Doing spread will just limit your returns.

Since volatility has come down straight calls and puts are best. Just make sure that Volatility for the stock you are trading is in the low side and then hold on for the ride.

Haveing the technical skiles to spot proper entry and exit makes the stranadard price pattern trades just as high probablity trade as any spread trade can be. The R/R is much higher with these.

To me REE with multiple confirmation like MACD turning, having both diagonal and horizontal support with volume make the trade a high probablity trade and Risk is much lower then what a condor can do.

Just my thought

Chris-
Don't be scared of your plan in regards to BOOM. I think you had a good strategy and you should stick with it.

liz

********* Educational Interlude ************

Something that's not talked about a lot here is volume of the options (both Open Interest, and vol Traded) and bid/ask spreads.

I would love to know how the High Rollers (I could tell you some Vegas High Roller stories that would astound you) handle stuff like this.

Take VFC for instance. It's a great stock. Look what it's down in an up/down market. Down, down, down. I got into it last week right at the peak and have made $26 on it because it NEVER TRADES!! Three days in a row there hasn't been a single trade on my Nov 85 put. The spread is .30 to .50 and everyone that owns it must be Scottish because they won't budge off their asking (or bidding) price. Now this is just with 10 contracts. What do you guys who are spending a lot more than $2,000 per trade doing on stuff like this?

Do you just not trade this type of stock? Do you build in the fact you're not going to be able to get your ask price into your formula?

What happens?

PS liz,
I hope grant is pampering you. You're a big part of this community and we miss you when you're not around all the time. Rest up and get well.

Liz, I did see that sorry I did not reply but it answered my question thanks. They just did not fit my rules but I really really wanted into DRYS but I did not enter. So sorry to hear you are ill, you probably got it from the nasty computer bug.

Brett and Raimo, so glad to see you both back in perfect form. Missed you guys.

Chris, you got me I got into POT as this (like Eric) is my favorite stock. So far I have made $27 YAHOO... Man 3+ weeks off would be great I see professional trading in your near future.

There are so many great REE setups now, THANKS Jeff again for the watchlist as most are on your list.

Oh and Brett, thanks for the reminder about risk.

F-bomb, F-bomb, F-bomb.

Go scared on VLO this morning. dumped all my calls due to news at 8:40....

So far would have lost $120 contract less if I had followed my rules.........


Follow the rules, follow the rules.

Chris, Have your better half send the hammers over

Some of you mentioned that I might have made Beanie's comments appear smaller. Actually, I did not do anything to his comments. But, I did implement a script that automatically adjusts comment font size based on the handsomeness of the author, so maybe that caused it.

Since we're talking about mistakes, here's one that doesn't often get addressed here. You might remember my BCSI rant back in august when i sold out just before the breakout?

There's a few things you can do when you make a mistake on a stock. One is to write it off, curse it, vow to never trade it again. Another is to stalk it, watch it, wait for the opportunity and pounce.

I let it get away once. I didn't let it get away again. What did I do?

Bag it.
Tag it.
Sell it to the butcher in the store.

(i'm feeling a bit phishy today).

Oh, Tim! You are so funny! That one gave me a good guffaw.

Can you do anything about wrinkles??


Flying-pro,
You poor thing! I have soooo been there. My best advice, don't look back. There are great ideas being tossed around today, you'll get it back and then some.

Liz- Sorry you're sick. FCX. I put out the dividend effect on the blog yesterday as TOS explained it to me but no one responded as to whether I was correct in my analysis. TOS said the option price will be adjusted downward by delta x the amount of the dividend.

I had Oct calls and FCX just hit my target price so I got out. The combo of price target, Oct expiration, and dividend payout tomorrow prompted me to get out right when it hit my target.

Hope this helps. Kim

Flying Pro,

If it makes you feel any better, I sold SOHU yesterday.

Brett,
That's a great piece of wisdom there. The only thing is you have to look at it objectively.

In January I lost *gulp* $680 on NTRI and it bacame an obsession to get it back. I felt that the market took it from me and I really had a vendetta against NTRI and the market for that matter.

My mother, a great trader, said, "Lane, the market is never wrong. Only you are wrong. Stop looking at it as they owe you, too much emotion."

I let it go and began to trade NTRI solely as a new trade. I watched it, stalked it, and took a great set-up in June. I made almost $300 and then, last week, I bought the put (on NTRI) heard round the world! I am in the positive. A lot.

But bigger than the payday was the lesson learned. Watch the chart. Look for the set-up and follow the rules.

Laney! I'm right behind you in the anti-wrinkle line! Along those lines, check out CYNO (that's their business) which is flagging nicely and may break out today.

Brett - Thank you for reminding me about HDNG. I had marked up the chart on it as an asc. tri. a while back. You see it as a sym. tri. I guess I'm being more conservative but either way it looks good to me.

Tim - bless you and your programming skills!

Tim, that was out of this world funny!

Liz, I hope you get better soon. My 7month old is getting over a bad cold, too. She's been crying for 2 days straight...

Kim, I think you're smart to get out. The dividend will affect your option tomorrow and if you've hit your target this close to earnings, I think getting out is the thing to do. I'm doing that with RESP today too.

Flying pro. Don't despair, my friend. There are so many awesome set-ups out there that you will make that 120/contract back by weeks end. I know because I've been there. Our account is up 40% in two days thanks to everyone here. If I hadn't opened my account 8 months ago using Canadian dollars, I'd be in the black which is remarkable considering what I did to it twice. Unfortunately I've got 20% to go still to get even with the CDN amount it took to open the account, because the US dollar has dropped so much.

However... dropping the F-bomb can be very theraputic.

Someone forgot to tell the fiery bird that the S&P is down 5 points.

THE PHOENIX.

Hey Chris,

I'm in RESP and I don't see anything about a dividend payout....

Where do you see that?

:)

Krystal,

DON'T PANIC. Sorry 'bout that, chief. I meant only that I'm considering selling it as it has exceeded my 50 target and earnings is coming up. I'll watch today's action and if it stays red... I'll bail and put that money into something new that's at REE.

Chris,

Thanks for the acknowledgement as the couldawouldashoulda demon was descending upon me.

RESP - I've got a Jan. call so I'm going to let it run through earnings and let it ride, as long as it continues to follow the trend. The risk of the entire premium is still within my portfolio tolerance.

Brett,

I'm feeling Phishy this morning as well... If Phish fits your fancy, Nutter Center, Dayton, OH from December of 1997 is a classic!

Now that the kids are at school and I am at work, I have a job to do. Good trading day all!

Kim-
FCX hit my target yesterday as well. I sold half and let the rest run and I guess my winner will hit the finish line today. I don't want to hold over a dividend. Thanks.

liz

Krystal-
2 out of 3 of my kids have bad colds as well. It's the 1st time they've been sick in almost a year so I guess it was about time. And when they get sick, I get sick!

liz

Chris-
Let's just say, Grant is helping as much as he can but... I can't wait to get better soon! I'll be playing catch up the rest of the week. ;-)

liz

I just want to thank everyone here for your wisdom, teaching skills, and patients. I started following along with Jeff's blog just four weeks ago. At that time I only had 25% of my small account left. I was feeling defeated, desperate, and discouraged. I am happy to report that as of today, I have fully recovered and I'm on my way! My biggest lesson's learned here...patience and enter/exit points. Oh, and of course, follow your rules!
So don't ever give up hope if you are where I was. Persistence is the key. Learn from your mistakes and it will all come. Now to keep my head on straight, stay focused, and find my next trades.
Here's to all of you!

Lis,
Congrats!! That's an awesome story. You'll find emotion trying to creap back in as your trades get larger. Keep them at bay.

Anyone seen Jeff today? we are nearing 200 posts.... what are you up to Jeff??

Lis-

Wow! Did I read that correctly?! You lost 75% of your account, pre-Kohler, and made it all back in only 4 weeks?! That's like a 300% return! Holy #*%@ batman! That's awesome and the kind of story I need to hear.

So what's the record for number of comments on a post? Are we there yet?