Early Weekend

I "worked" from home this morning. I decided it would be a light volume day, so I took the opportunity to teach Jordan how to trade. It appears he is still a little emotional in his analysis due to the crying, throwing up, and random squeals he would belt out. Based on this I think he meets the traditional mold to become an Option Addict.

If you want an idea how the market will open next week, pay attention to the employment numbers coming out tomorrow and as always, double check how the Yen is trading and index futures are performing prior to Monday. This will give you an idea how to start out your positions first thing in the morning.

I came in to the office to record the Marketcast and then I have some weekend to attend to. Which means I still am behind on a couple posts I promised (Futures Part II, Trading Earnings Season, and Establishing a Trading Plan). I promise I will make progress on these next week.

I also hope to walk through a couple "case studies" together. My intention is to do these at least twice a week.

In closing, go have a great weekend! We'll all be here for you when you get back.




Let's see - crying, puking, squealing - yes, Jordan and I certainly have some things in common regarding our trading styles. Hopefully he won't pick up my additional "trading habits" of cussing, slamming the desk, and storming outside for an occasional smoke.

Dallas, Texas

Support, resistance and a line in the sand…

Since I had three positions close at or slightly (when I say slightly, I mean less than $.10 of my line) outside my support or resistance lines, I figured I’d ask what other people’s rules are when it comes to exiting trades when a stock price ends at or goes a hair beyond their support or resistance lines.

Jeff and Eric, on the Marketcast, suggest using a crayon rather than a razor line when drawing support and resistance lines. I’ve heard of giving the price action of the stock 3% above or below the lines. This approach might be for mechanical stops on an equity position…

Using a modified 3% rule, more like 1% as my crayon, I’ve been burned by both staying with a loser within the 3% window and cutting a winner off by closing the trade when it closes outside my line in the sand. I have also benefited from this approach in both instances.

Two other reasons I mention this is because: 1) I have had five trades in the past couple weeks close right at or a hair beyond my line the past couple of weeks that went beyond the line HUGE the following day. The price action made a significant move towards the line on the day that it closed at the line in only one of the five cases. And 2) this is truly one of the final emotional points that remain for me... losing streaks are another…

I understand that a support or resistance line is more reliable the more the price action bounces off a given line. One thought is saying that if it has used the line two or more times, then stay in the trade and if it has used it once, get out. Another thought is if it approaches the line with big price action and high volume, get out. And if the reverse is true, give it another day.

So the question, where is the line in the sand? Where is MY line in the sand? If I know for certain that it IS my line, then it is real easy, emotion gone. If it is a certain percentage outside my line, emotion gone. This could be one of those things that I have to figure out which approach I can live with. In any event, I need a rule to be consistent.

I would really appreciate some feedback as to what everyone uses.

I apologize for the book but this is real good therapy!

Rhody, Oregon


Have a great weekend!!!

--thanks, Meena

Hi All,

Amy, I did want to make one comment to you on your post earlier today. I look at a stock chart and try to read the whole story that it is telling me. If you look at each individual days price action it is like picking up a book and reading only one word and thinking you know what the book is about. Each trend is a new chapter. You need to read the whole book up to the point you are at, if you like it and buy it, then each additional day is another page in the story. PCAR has a great story behind it. If you don't like today's "page", sometimes reading the next days "page" will help today's make more sense. Remember, it needs to be in the context of the whole book - or the chapter you are in. If you like the "book" then be patient as the next pages unfold so that you can get close to the ending you want - especially if you are still reading the same chapter. This visualization helps me to stay patient (as I find it really hard to put a book down that I only have read half way). IF you trust that you would only be attracted to the winning trades in the first place (which is why Jeff is a good place to pick your trades from), then you just have to decide when you want to put this "book" down and start a new book - because it is now onto a new subject. Maybe this is too far out there for you, but I find visualizations keep me interested.

John & Amy, If you are a new trader and not sure whether you should exit or not - ask someone. Email Jeff or ask one of the coach's at Investools, sometimes another opinion can help you to see the trade in a whole new light and either renew hope in your trade, or see that the hope is gone. Ask them if they think the trend has changed, or if it is still in the trend you origionally got in for. If it is still in the trend - then be patient - it will likely still move in the direction you want it to.

One more thing, you need to focus on the chart - not your account. It helps to keep the emotion out as you are not adding or subtracting unrealized gains. You can more clearly see, that nothing has changed from when you got in (except the dollar value in your account - that you are not looking at anyway). Then you don't see the money you are losing or making. You are just following the chart!

That's all for now

Happy Easter everyone (and happy egg hunting too)


Good news. If you time it right, you can ask the Easter Bunny when to close your trades. I'm assuming he does make it down to Oregon. Honestly, I believe this is something you have to find out by trial and error, until you find the system that works for you. I have tended to let things go a little too long. It'll cross support and I'll say "Well maybe it'll bounce back a bit tomorrow, I'll wait one more day." Then KAPOW!!! the Dow drops 400 points and my kids are on the street corners selling pencils. Well.... maybe pens... they're a bit more up-scale.

Anyway, I tend to find that by buying uptrending stocks right at support, there's very little room for it to go down before I'm out. Quite often it'll sit on the diagonal support for a few days, but at least it's moving in the right direction. Then KAPOW!!! it goes up 500% and it's White Mochas for all my kids customers... on the house.

Jeff, remember Jordan's a clean slate. You can mold him into any kind of trader you want. Beats the heck out of trying to teach old guys like me. But more importantly make sure you teach him about the Easter Bunny. All that chocolate rocks!!!

Chris and Catherine


I've had simmilar problems. Here's an example. Over the past several months I traded INFY on three separate occasions. I had a very specific plan going into each trade including entry points, exit points, price targets and risk/reward. I followed my plan explicitly. I was dead on in my analysis and in each case my price target was reached if not exceeded. "Yea me!" right? Guess what, I lost money on all three of those trades. UNBELIEVABLE! Upon further analysis of many of my other losing trades, the same was true. I was getting whipped out because I was placing my stops based on a break in a trendline I had drawn. I have since retrained my eyes to see a trend in terms of higher highs and higher lows (or the reverse). The truth is that the price action can easily break a diagonal trendline but go on to form a higher low and in my opinion, until the most recent low is violated that trend remains in force. I'm giving my trades way more room to move than I used to. Sometimes that does involve taking on some additional risk but I'm getting way more comfortable in my own analysis and I mitigate some of the risk by trading cheaper stocks and (close your ears Jeff) selling front month options against directional trades I have on. Anytime I can lower my cost basis to offest some of the additional risk; I will!

Sorry for the length but I hadn't hit my word quota for the day ;) Happy Easter!

(Santa Rosa, CA)

Hello. I have been lurking on the blog for quite some time, thanks to all for your Q & A and comments. I am learning alot.

I have been w/ Investools for 2 1/2 years and have been consistantly losing money. I hear the "you need to find your own system, write your own rules, find your comfort level" but it sure gets confusing, everyone has an idea of how to trade the market and I truely get overwhelmed with possibilities. One instructor says Iron Condors, one says SPX options, one says LEAP, one says don't LEAP...
Whats a fella to do?

I keep gravitating to this Option Addict thing, short term, pattern based, S/R, breakouts and the like. BUT... how do I make $ at it?
I know, don't worry about the money but I blew up one account and now I need to worry about the money. My wife is.
Sorry for the length but like I said, I have been lurking for awhile and I had all of this pent up.

I need some help, I am very frustrated with the whole process but I do believe I can and will figure this out before my money runs out.

I love the comments and advice to John. Everyone is very open with ideas, set-ups, help, advice. I just need some hard love to kick me in the right direction. Thanks to one and all.

I noticed a lot of talk about lines in the sand and stops lately. Take a look at the VIX over the past month. In markets like this we must give our stocks more wiggle room. This will mean assuming more risk so counter that with taking on smaller positions. Don't violate your position sizing rules.

Hope this helps.


since you blew up an account, you're well on your way to becoming a successful trader. You've done the one thing paper traders can't do: feel the sting of doing something really stupid. Now, you need to figure out what you did wrong.

1) did you keep a journal? If so, review every trade. See what you did wrong. If you didn't keep a journal, that's a big mistake.

2) Obviously your position sizing was off. Did you risk more than 1% of your account into any single trade? my guess is you did.

3) Did most of your big losses come in single days? If so, you were clearly unbalanced. You need to make sure to have some bearish trades in there in case of severe market drops. I know it's hard to do, but remember to use those good market rallies to enter trades on some weaker stocks.

4) Did you spend time pricing your options before buying or did you just say, "i'll just go one strike in" or "i'll just go one strike out"? this can make a HUGE difference. Believe it or not, you can me lured into what i call 'can't win' trades where even if your analysis is perfect, you won't make money. And worse, you'll tie up that money and watch another stock take off that you could have had.

5) Did you adequately cut your losers? Did you buy near support?

These are just a few ideas. Hopefully they will help, but understand a few tips won't turn it around. You need to work through your system. Find what works. Find what doesn't. I've lost plenty of money, but I made sure to study my losses and look at them as tuition costs.

This is the hardest job there is. You don't get a paycheck just for showing up. You need to outwork, outthink and outgut the guy who's on the other side of your trades.

Brett...(and everyone else)

My paper trades always did better than my REAL trades, and I attribute that to the fact that since I could not lose money paper trading, I'd let trades run...and mostof the time they were good winners. With real money, I'd panic watching my account balance drop, even though the trade was a good trade..I was impatient letting the trade setup run its course. So I got better...

Now Bretts latest comment of option pricing has my attention.

I'd love to read, learn and understand how some of the more expreinced guys here do this analysis. ITM, ATM and OTM....I need to gain a better understanding of this...

Thanks eveyone for sharing here....this is a really good place to learn....share...and vent frustrations without any ego's knocking you....

Well if blowing up an account is one necessary step to becoming a good trader then I am well on my way. If it is equally important to do stupid stuff then I am there. You would not believe some of what I have done and as I look back on it I am amazed myself. To prove to myself I can put ego aside at least in this community, how about this one? I had some software issues with TOS right after the big down day and took my contract sizes down to just one but my screen froze and I unknowing got 10 and then the market drove down and I could not get out - panic. Like C&C I am now on a slow plan to get my account back to level and the good news is that I am almost half way there. Brett, thanks for the outline of questions I found myself answering yes to too many of them and Bob I can only say AMEN been there too. Thankfully my REAL account has now for the first time (this week) made more than my paper. I for one use a spreadsheet to determine ITM, OTM or ATM and the Risk/Reward, position sizing, etc. Yes it is a pain sometimes but makes me fill in all the boxes and then if I get a RED entry make a decision based on the chart and my rules. Rules there is a whole other issue...
Bob H.

Bob H.

Blow up accounts...LOL..not ashamed here, I posted earlier, I blew 100K feb 27th....off playing (snowmobiling in Canada), no stops in place (since I am normally on the computer, I felt no need for stops)and OUCH....I got crushed.

I am not filthy rich (that is still the long term goal though, LOL), and am having a hard time re-building my account...I admit I am now a bit "gun-shy", afraid to pull the trigger sometimes.

I do this full time...but without that large trading capital, things are tough. It was easy with capital to make a small % gain on my money and pay my bills, etc. Not so easy now.

Now I need a crash course on getting smarter.

So, losing my money I have accepted..failing at this stuff...simply not an option (pun intended)

I don't like losing money, no one does. So I have a choice..pass or fail. I'll fail my way to success if I have to..I will get this right....I never quit at anything and am not going to start now.

Let the market bring it on...I am here for the long haul....

I've just finished comparing your SPX trading method to the one presented by Stacy Acevedo at the Orlando conference. It appears almost identical to me, with the exception of 2 additional elements. Sarah brought up that in Stacy's system when she is doing a short term trade, she places the Fib lines on the prior days high and low, and if the price exceeds those, she places them on the prior highs and lows. Also, she uses Advancing/Declining issues on the index she is trading. On TOS (software based) the advancers vs decliners are available for each index under "Watch" on the toolbar. Most other sites have only advancers/decliners on the Dow and Nasdaq. In her demonstration she kept note of advancing/declining issues constantly to see if the index was gaining or losing strength. Although probably not essential, it is just one more helpful indicator. I am going to try papertrading your system next week. Thanks!

Mine was only a 20k account but now with my IRA I have to prove to myself I can make money before I ask for another grubstake. Yes, I did all of those things wrong and more. Too large a percentage, too fast to cut winners, too slow to cut losers, trades I did not understand with no known way out when it went bad, etc, etc. I would give Jeff my account number and password but what fun would that be! I want to figure this out and make a go of it.

I have a 50K account and only want to bank 1K per month to begin with, is that asking too much? I was thinking along the lines of 80% long term stock ownership money with dividends and some covered calls, 10% selling put money and 10% short term option money. Does this make sense? I want 80% "stay rich" money and 20% "get rich" money.

I have gotten gun shy as well as having paralysis by analysis in that I can do research all night long but I don't act on it or I pick the wrong ones out of my group of canidates.

Thanks for letting me spew. I will try to add some ideas as I get them but for now I am taking more than I am giving on the blog. Thanks.

Jeff, where can I find the Ave Imp Vol graph used in your vidoes? I do not see it in prophet charts.


On the left hand side of your Prophetchart, the bottom option on the menu is “option controls.” You can find your average implied volatility there.


I love this blog and check it multiple times daily. I've received so much valuable information from Jeff and all the option addicts. Since we're all putting our stories out there, I began trading in 11/05. I went from being down 50% in 7/06 to up 50% in 11/06 to slightly less than even by the end of the year (I went Christmas shopping with no hard stops in place). In options, flucuations in the market are so magnified both with you and against you. In November of last year I thought I was a genius and this was easy; by January I felt like an idiot, and needless to say my Christmas season wasn't too merry. I've been trying to work my way back, but recently I haven't been doing too well (many stops being hit). From all this I have come up with some lessons that I have learned.
1) Think fast; Move slow. (That was the mantra of an old Armenian surgeon that I worked with for many years.)Often positions aren't nearly as appealing once your order has been filled. Run down your checklist of rules before placing the trade.
2) Don't trade when rushed (Echoes of Lisa--Thanks Lisa!).
3) Selling for a profit can be done at anytime of day as prices are often best (more volatility) in the morning; but wait till the end of the day for most buying (gives you time to go through your trading rules and prevents emotional entries). MANY of my entries were horrible considering what they could have been if I had waited for the end of the day. The other side of the coin is that many stop-losses are hit early in the trading day and the stock recovers, but later in the day when stops are hit, it tends to be more an indication of which way the stock is trending in the short term.
4)If you're not going to be at your computer, enter hard stops for a worst case scenario. I HATE hard stops, but they will preserve a good portion of your capital when you're not around to babysit. If you're not going to have time to monitor your positions for an extended period of time (more than a day), close your positions, or set hard stops and deal with the consequences. I have tried every type of stop. Contingency orders are logical, but you get the absolute worst price on your option when they're triggered. Since hard stop losses are triggered on the Ask, what you receive on the Bid is often very different from what you were expecting, especially with the way the market makers manipulate the spreads when the stocks are moving quickly.
5) Finally, stick with your position sizing rules. If you aren't trading right at support or resistance, decrease your position size appropriately.
I too thought I was on my way to trading full time, but the Christmas season made me doubt my plan. I have decided to stick with it at least till the end of the year and see where I end up. I still seem to be able to find NEW mistakes to make almost daily, but this blog helps to reinforce a lot of good rules and offers numerous good trading ideas. Thanks Jeff and all for your daily contributions!

Thanks, fellow traders, for your insight and thoughtful comments. I have continued to go back over my trades an review my thought process on exits. Jodi made some great comments about looking at the balances in my account. I would exit good trades to keep my account balance at a certain level. Duh, that keeps it from growing. I know I was trying to balance out my winners and losers. Thus, cutting my losses and profits short. At times, I also felt like I had to make money everyday. This also cut the winners short.
I am slowly beginning to see the errors of my way. On Thursday, I focused more on my trades than how the money was moving in my account. That helped not having the trading platform up all day. I held onto my positions.
I also saw in my trading journal that I had more success with support/resistance bounces. When I traded price pattern breakouts, I would sometimes get nervous on the retracement and sell to soon...just to see the stock bounce and move higher. These things I can fix, and I am going to. I plan to report a better return in April than I did in March.

Keep the comments coming as they have helped me and others to review their plans and strategies.

This blog is a tremendous resource!


Your wisdom please - Eric said on the last CAST that good labor numbers would be good for Monday's opening. Today I read that Yahoo MarketWatch is saying the opposite. As I am only in long positions now and still looking for short trades, this gives me concern. How do you evaluate the market direction before open on Monday? Eric has said FXY and futures but how do I get that data before market opens?
Bob H.

I listen to Bloomberg all day...I don't follow Yahoo Marketwatch. Everything I heard today was all good, better numbers than expected. How that will translate inot mondays open, I have no clue. I plan to stick to my rules, watch my trades..make no decisions based on Mondays open...

Don't get burned hitting the panic button too soon...

What great dialogue today. Glad to see I'm not alone in almost blowing up my account.I really feel like I understand what investools teaches,yet my account never reflected what I thought I knew. I then met a fellow student who is doing very well and he told me I was too focused on the money. He suggested on my trading monitor page to turn off the $amount and just show percentages. He suggested to also focus on strong trending stocks and look for the bounce entries for lower risk. Since taking his advice my trades have dramatically improved. Since I trade very small amounts looking at percentages,helps me psychologically looking at a 30% profit verus $60.

I now wait for the entries(never chase),look for stocks that are just bouncing,have volatility and buy more time than I think I need. Most of all it's patience for me. Once I'm in a trade,be patient and let it develop.

Thanks to everyone. Looks like monday is going to be a great trading day.


Good activity today ...not bad on a day the markets are closed.

Can't wait for live chat JEFF!!

Where'd Brett go?? Our for Mochas??

Have a great wkd everyone...till monday....

I think it would help if we knew which stocks you were referring to and where you have your lines drawn. Many traders may see different things when looking at the same chart. That is the beauty of this blog, so many different perspectives.

I think you are a genius !!!! I love it, reading the chart like a story and referring to the days price action as a page in the chapter. We need to talk to the publisher of the "market wizard" books and get this one in their. JEFF, perhaps you should asked Jodi if you could use her quote for your next master talk.

Tom T,
Are you in Orlando ??? If you are, post your email address on the blog (if you want) and I will forward you some information on the Mastermind group that meets every Monday in Orlando. My trading/study partner and I have recently started going to these meetings and there is potential to learn alot, maybe this is the step you are needing to become profitable. Also have you figured out how/why you blew up your acct ??? I myself blew up an acct last year ($20,000 !!!) and when i look back at all the mistakes i made.....well lets just say, i will never make them again, it truely is part of the learning process. Although it sounds cliche, you really do have to WRITE DOWN YOUR TRADING RULES. Somehow the process of defining your own rules and writing them down makes them work better. Keep them near your computer and read them over everyday and before you place any trades, this will help prevent those irrational/emotional trades. Listen to what Brett said and really try to answer his questions, I think it will help you understand where you are going wrong.

What time frame does Stacy say to use when placing the fib's on the previous days price action?? Is it 20day/20min or is 1day/1min ??
One of my coaches had shown me where to check the adv/decl on TOS, seems like a helpfull tool. I would hate to get too hung up on watching this, i have actually caught myself being almost mesmerized by it.

I am going to email Jeff my backtesting results for the $SPX trading syst and let him post it on the blog. There is so much info and with a baby free time is slim to none. I have this info saved on the computer and it will be very easy to send it to him to have him post it. I think you will like the results.


oh, is anybody going to Chicago in August ???

I'm going! My first conferece and I'm excited! Tonya, I'd love to see your backtested results. I have a friend in Atlanta who is trading a system similar to yours, and I'm trying to papertrade it now. Thanks for sharing!
Debbie in COLD Charlotte, NC


Stacey uses 15minute candles and sometimes double checks that with 5 minute candle. As for days 2-5 depending upon price action.

can't wait to see the backtesting results.


I'm trying for for Chicago as well.

Hey Jeff...

Heve you given any thought when upgrading your site to adding a trading journal section...a place where we (members?) can post our trades for others to see/follow/comment? We could post the ticker, date trade entered, long or short, strike price, target, closeout date. I would be happy to post my trades...I can see it helping me (others?) adhere more closely to our own rules and perhaps common practices that we all share, or want to share...

This combined with everything else we have going on here....

Any thoughts?? Anyone??

From Tom T in Orlando.

email is...


I would love to hear from others via email. I wanted to meet others at the Orlando conference but it never happened. C & C as well as others were there and I pestered Jeff to introduce me but we never found each other. Oh well.

Tonya, let me know about a grpou. I am interested. Thanks.

thanks SARAH, i'll try that...

TOM T check your email....

DEBBIE, let us/me know how your friend's system works. If you find some thing that works better i would like to hear about it.




I will be making it to Chicago. I’m pretty excited!

At your suggestion I am giving my positions that closed Friday at MY support or resistance lines. Please, all insight is welcome.

FDS (call) is currently dawdling along the support line. I heard a lot of people suggest that they were getting sick of waiting for this to bounce. My thoughts are that since it first touched the support line seven trading days ago, it has only gained $.50 and is going to be outside my trendline on Monday at the current pace. My rule is to exit at a close outside support or resistance. However, Cinda from Santa Rosa gave me a different light when saying that it has not yet formed a lower low and if it goes on to form a higher low then the trend is still intact. My risk/reward was calculated on my trendline and that is the line I feel I should stick with.

HOG (put) is closed Thursday at its previous high and made a lower low in-between. It is also at its 30 day MA which it bounced off of at the end of February. If it makes a higher high, I am out with a very small loss since I bought it right where it is now on 3/22.

RATE (put) is at the neckline of the head and shoulders breakout.

BRCM (put) has made a lower high and lower low that I have downward trendline drawn from the previous two highs almost right trough where it closed Thursday. On this position, I am anticipating a bounce down. I may have been a little premature here but have very little risk.

Consequently, three of the four positions are puts after six straight up days on the DOW. I should expect them to be at their resistance levels. If the employment report is well received, the puts continue up, they will be beyond my resistance lines. The quagmire, my rules at this point say to get out. And, it is only a matter of time before there is a short term pullback in the current up trend and I have virtually no downside protection.


Rhody, Oregon

Hey Tonya:

I will be in Atlanta for the tech analysis class. I will be getting there on Thursday night. Lets make sure we meet. Buoyiii@aol.com I love to go over that spx trading system with you and it will be great to put a picture on a name at the blog. (that's a good idea that we could all do right)

David S

I wanted to share a quote from a book I'm currently reading that I feel everyone can benefit from. This is why we're all here:

"There is a huge difference between the learning of professionals and the learning of amateurs. The amateur golfer learns golf by playing rounds with buddies; amateur tennis players get on the court and hack around. Amateurs learn by performing, creating repeated experience without structure or feedback. Professionals learn by drilling, progressing through structured sequences of skills with the assistance of feedback and mentoring.

Nothing is more common than the notion that you learn to trade by trading. I humbly ask that you check that premise. You would not learn to fly a plane by getting in the cockpit and flying a jumbo jet, nor would you learn surgery by taking a knife to a patient. Why should trading be any different? Despite this seemingly obvious truth, we see few traders attempt to learn through training. Instead, they approach trading in the amateur mode, only to lose money and court frustration."

Since everyone here is still asleep, I thought i'd wake the crowd up with a riddle:

It's almost lunch time and I think I'm going to break out for a burrito, or one of those wonderful triangle-shaped quesadillas. Then again, maybe I'll wait until the afternoon to get confirmation that I'm still hungry, but the volume of people in line is already pretty big, so i may have to suck it up and get going.


my guess...JBX? but as for triangles check out TEX.


Sarah, nice try but incorrect.


BTW: The light is shinning on TSL today..

Larry S.

Not McDonald's. Have you ever gotten a quesadilla or a burrito at Mcdonald's?

Thankfully, you're in TSL. I have another solar play lined up if it breaks out that i can actually buy options on.

If your thirsty after that meal try to wash it down with a BUD

David S

Wasn't sure if they offered it...

seemed to be breaking out w/vol

My first hunce was YUM (taco bell), but the vol hasn't increased too much thus far to trade the symm tri.

Larry S.


my guess is YUM?


It's not YUM.


Ding Ding Ding!!!

Congratulations John! You got it. Check out the volume on the up days within this triangle formation.

I've been watching it form. I just need to clear some $$$ for it!


You're funny. Making us work for our burittos!! I love it. thanks for the fun.


P.S. speaking of fun, where is our fearless leader.

The higher highs and higher lows began back in December only to be stalled by the general market at the end of February and the beginning of March.

I expect the trend to continue until it proves otherwise.

My guess is Jeff's holed up in the AV Room working on 4-5 new videos to post this week.

That would just add to the long list of selfless gestures.




great guess! and with no help at all!


Welcome back!


In my opinion BRCM looks like a great set up, on its way to making a lower low.
RATE..... this is a hard one to have an opinion on....i do see impl vol heading down, which could/will reduce the value of your option, even if price does not move against you. We are due for a pull back in the market, which could be the push you are waiting for with this one. I have the neckline drawn ~ $35 and it looks like a retest to me.....I guess the question is "where do you have your line drawn & has resistance been broken yet?" As long as imp vol doesn't go down too rapidly, this trade may have some life left in it, esp if the markets retrace a little.
FDS, I think this has broken below the most recent support line (if you are swing trading) BUT if you are trend trading, the trend has not changed. So it really depends on how much time you have bought and what type of trader you are. Also, there comes a time when you need to ask yourself if your $$ could be working better for you in a different trade.
HOG, made a higher high today, which is real easy to see if you change your profit chart seting to line (it connects closing prices).
Well I hope this helps.

Tonya W
DAytona Beach

Thank you Tonya W.

I exited HOG on the higher high confirmation today.

Today looks like it confirmed the BRCM bounce.

I am still in FDS and RATE by a hair although as you mentioned, I believe that RATE has a little more life given the current market conditions and likelihood of a pullback.

Thank you for your analysis.


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About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
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