Jeff, great video! Thanks for all the wonderful patterns. I played 3 of them already.

Just kidding with all of you. Haven't seen the video yet, but let me draw everyone's attention to PLCE's nice symmetrical triangle breakdown IN THE DIRECTION of the previous trend. True, that $52 support level is looming, but back out and you will see a nice long-term head and shoulders pattern. I think both PLCE and GYMB look weak and this is a great entry if the stock breaks.

Also, i don't care what anyone (read: Jeff) says. FDS is going down.

FLML is looking like a good bearish setup, stock has moved into an intermediate down trend and has risen up to a previous support level around $28.50. Looks poised for a turn down, maybe $3-4 target, based on prior movement.

Joel R.
California

SPN is at an all-time breakout level. Very interesting play, but the volume isn't there. I've seen this type of setup before and it can go both ways. the volume could be on another big move up, or the breakout could fail. Back out and look at the strong resistance broken today.

I have a big frowny face in my journal for RATE and FDS. Bailed on both of these today.

And so slips away another 2%.

MikeH

Jeff,
As per your previous comment, please call me when the video is up and running. For Chris, press 1. For Catherine, press 2. For stock tips, press 3. For complaints, dial 1-555-533-2564 (try to figure out what the last 8 digits mean.)

Or we could start a phone tree. I call 2 friends, and they call 2 friends, and so on, and so on, and so on. My puts are sucking wind right now. Brett, you mentioned how frustrating it is to have them sitting there doing nothing. The good thing is that they're cheap insurance (so far) against another 2/27.

Meanwhile both NICE and SHLD (Jeff's "longs" of a couple blogs back) are both popping big time on excellent volume. It's 3:35, time to go on a shopping spree.

Chris and Catherine

Mike H
I'm assuming it's too late to stop you from bailing on RATE. You must have gotten in at the wrong time, because it's just moving back to it's support level right now. I see a couple more days of nothing and then it'll start back down. FDS, I agree, has broken the trend. The almighty Brett (aka: "White Mocha Man") predicts doom and destruction for it. Buy puts and send coupons for WMs to 'da Man. I've found that bowing to pagan gods like that can be rewarding, if done properly.

Chris and Catherine

LUFK almost confirming a reverse H&S today. No volume on the break of the neckline. Something to keep an eye on.

BTW, 533-2564 = JEF-BLOG :)

Joel R.
California

Mike,

You bailed on RATE? Why? Neutral price action...no upside volume...a textbook re-test. If you typically exit under these type of circumstances, I would stay away from trading breakouts, and use this type of action to enter a trade instead. Perhaps you'll have a better risk/reward doing this.

I've got 35 as horizontal resistance for RATE which it climbed above today with increasing volume. I think Jeff covered this also last night on the Marketcast watch list. Break over 35 with volume increase was my sell rule.

MikeH

Joel R you win the prize.

Couldn't get in to SHLD today. For some reason they think I need money in my account to do that. Huh, time to look for a new agent.

Chris and Catherine

Jeff,

I take some issue with your comment. I also exited RATE, and i'm a pretty good breakout trader. Volume up nicely and a close 2% above $35 is a pretty good exit signal. I think the problem here that you may not be considering is that due to the available options, most people (myself included) had to take the May puts, or else push out until August. At this point, with the stock clinging to $35, there's very little liklihood of making money on the trade unless it dumps quickly. A textbook retest for this stock should have been to turn around at $35 with those neutral candles and head back down. In my opinion, this looks like it's going to retest that gap at $36.75 and by that point, we'd all be in some large losses.

You are still the master, but i completely disagree.

Brett,
This is why I love this blog.... IN THIS CORNER....weighing in at (put your weight here) is Brett!!
IN THIS CORNER... weighing in at (put Jeff's weight) is JK!!!

As I mentioned in my earlier posting (before Jeff had posted his) I see this as a descending diagonal trend and RATE is heading right back to the support line. I can't wait to see how this one plays out, as I see how you're reading it, and I (obviously) see how I'm reading it, and they're both valid arguments. A WM rests on the outcome.

Let the battle begin.
Chris and Catherine

I tried to get out of both FDS and RATE today, but, about 12:50 PST I tried to change my TOS “stop sell” to a “market sell” and got an error. My computer locked. I had to reboot. By the time my operating system was running again, it took more than five minutes to login to the TOS website… Needless to say, I am in a place I don’t want to be.

My hope is that RATE dies a quick death and FDS has ten more minute of breath before it goes under.

So the story goes…

I have the Brett FDS feeling. I will not buy PUTS on that, however, I will sell my calls.

John

C&C,

I have archived all of my personal debates with Brett. At least the last 3 or 4. For Brett's sake, I hope he is right on this one.

Thank-you Brett for helping me stand up to the Master.

RATE broke out of a H&S on 3/26. It retested for the first time on 3/30 with a close near 36. I held at that point. Todays close over 35 was enough for me to get out. It was less volume today than on the 30th but a 2nd test on increasing volume is enough weakness for me to bail.

I did not play this as a triangle.

MikeH

C'mon Mike....you don't need to stand up to me. You followed your rules and executed your plan. Nice work! Sorry about the loss, but I am sure you'll get it back on the next one.

Jeff,

this isn't a debate. I disagreed with you on RATE just like you disagreed with me on BWLD.

The real debate is how do I get my picture to show up when I post comments (like Jeff.)?

Jeff, great news on Chicago and your teaching... and the marketcast. Maybe this time you won't ignore my hand when I put it up. And don't say it was so low you couldn't see it. Or the light was reflecting off the top of my head.

...sniff...

Anyone betting on BUCY? Is it an ascending triangle or is it continuing an upward trend? To me it could be either, and if it's a triangle then it's got some sideways moving to do before it breaks upward. Today's volume was descent, so I'm betting it'll continue up.

Chris and Catherine

Here are a few breakouts I noticed today: OIH, PPH and XLE. Just average volume though. Do you ever lower your volume requirements in an idling market? Probably not.

Peter V
Mill Valley, CA