Tonya's Backtesting Results

For those that were looking for Tonya's system results I am going to publish them here. Sorry I am getting off to a late start, but I had to go shopping this morning for some new marketcast equiptment.

$SPX Trading System Backtest Results

initial entry signal confirmed enrty date $ movement
12-29-04 put 01-03-05 $34
01-18-05 put 01-19-05 $32
01-24-05 call 01-25-05 $29
02-15-05 put 02-22-05 $28
03-07-05 put 03-08-05 $56
03-16-05 call 03-17-05 loser
03-22-05 call 03-30-05 $20
04-07-05 put 04-08-05 $51
04-15-05 call 04-18-05 $24
04-28-05 call 04-29-05 $35
05-10-05 put 05-10-05 $32
05-13-05 call 05-16-05 $51
06-02-05 put 06-03-05 loser
06-08-05 call 06-09-05 $28
06-24-05 call 06-28-05 $38
07-20-05 put 07-21-05 loser
08-03-05 put ,08-04-05 $22
08-05-05 call 08-09-05 $19
08-06-05 call never confirmed xxx
08-26-05 call 08-29-05 $38
09-12-05 put 09-13-05 $15
09-16-05 put 09-19-05 $32
09-21-05 call 09-22-05 $24
09-30-05 put 10-03-05 or 10-04-05 $51-$65
10-12-05 call 10-14-05 $23
10-27-05 call 10-28-05 $45
11-11-05 put 11-15-05 loser
11-18-05 put never confirmed xxx
11-29-05 call never confirmed xxx
12-02-05 put 12-05-05 $14
12-19-05 call 12-21-05 $12
12-30-05 call 01-03-06 $48
01-20-06 call 01-24-06 $24
02-07-06 call 02-08-06 $39
03-06-06 call 03-10-06 $39
04-03-06 call never confirmed xxx
04-05-06 put 04-06-06 $31
04-10-06 call 04-18-06 $32
04-19-06 put 04-21-06 $22
05-04-06 put 05-10-06 $35 or $80
05-12-06 call never confirmed xxx
05-18-06 call 05-24-06 $19
06-02-06 put 06-05-06 $65
06-13-06 call 06-14-06 $35
07-13-06 call 07-18-06 $26
07-19-06 put 07-20-06 $21
07-21-06 call 07-24-06 $33
08-09-06 call 08-14-06 $34
09-07-06 call 09-08-06 $30
09-12-06 put never confirmed xxx
09-21-06 call 09-25-06 $28
09-26-06 put never confirmed xxx
10-02-06 call 10-03-06 $26 or $38
10-23-06 put 10-27-06 $27
11-03-06 call 11-06-06 $24
11-09-06 call 11-13-06 $43
11-27-06 call 11-28-06 $30
12-04-06 put 12-06-06 $9/loser
12-22-06 call 12-26-06 $16
12-27-16 put 12-28-06 $21
01-05-07 call 01-08-07 $25
01-11-07 put never confirmed xxx
01-24-07 put 01-25-07 $22
01-29-07 call 01-30-07 $27
02-12-07 call 02-13-07 $23
02-14-07 put 02-23-07 $82
03-05-07 call 03-06-07 $34



Could someone remind me of the date of Tonya's post w/ her trading system? I'd like to compare to these results.


My search showed it on March 30

Anyone looking at some good setups today?

I've got a bearish and a bullish one. Obviously CMG is going to have to spring to the finish line to be a breakout.

Bearish: QSII sym tri breakdown
Bullish: SWY cup and handle break

Hey Jeff,

Here's a suggestion... It would be cool if when you post a new entry for us on the blog that it would automatically email all of us to let us know to check it, especially since sometimes you will post more than once in a day and sometimes the info is on a particular trade set-up that we would want to get into before it is too late. I don't know if it is possible, but it would definiately be helpful. Thanks

You're right. In fact, instead of e-mailing everyone, perhaps I should make phone calls?


Just kidding. On the front page, there is a link to subscribe to my "feed." Has anyone else done this that would be willing to give the details?

I tried unsuccessfully to sign up for the feed but am on the site so much really no need at this point. Anyone out there in HES and getting oh so close to their stop/exit?
Bob H.


Great idea! Please be mindful of the time difference, however. I have 2 young children at home and I can't have you calling at all hours of the night waking them up.

The exact details will vary by browser, but if you look below Jeff's profile link, you'll see a square orange icon with a tag that reads "Perscriptions Here!" Why "perscriptions"? I don't know, but maybe Jeff can explain it when he calls each one of us. Anyway, click on either the icon or the link and it'll take you to a "Subscribe to this feed" page.

From FireFox, just click the "Subscribe Now" button. A popup box will appear and ask you to name the feed and select a location to store it. I recommend storing it under the default "Bookmarks Toolbar" folder. You should now be able to see your feed in the Bookmark Toolbar. When you click on it, it will drop down a list of the past 20+ posts from Jeff. New ones appear at the top…just click on any of them and it takes you right to that posting.

From IE (I'm using v7), there will be a "Subscribe to this feed" link contained within a yellow box. When you click the link, a popup box will appear asking you to name the feed and select a location to store it in. Once you've subscribed to it, you can get back to it by making sure the "feeds" toolbar is showing. To have it appear, go to View, then Explorer Bar, then select Feeds. In IE, only the name you chose will appear in the list of feeds. You will have to click on it to get a list of postings to appear in the main browser screen.

Neither reader will notify you when Jeff posts a new article, but both let you check in periodically at a glance. There are many more RSS readers out there, but neither of these require any downloads.

Hope that helps.


Perscriptions? Addictions often require perscriptions, right?

In case you need a daily dose, I thought it was funny.

Dave, thanks for the nice tutorial. That saved me a lot of time!


Couple of clarification questions,

What time frame you use when you look at charts to place order? (buy,sell and Stop loss) Is it daily chart or do you use minutes chart?.Also what time frame your fib retracements are drawn on the chart?



What is your system rules that go along with the backtesting?


I was working with daily candlesticks. If you compare the backtesting results to the 2yr/1day profit chart, you will be able to see the signals & confirmation points. Also, there are some periods of time when fibs are not the best form of support and resistance, sometimes a simple trend line works best.

refer back to the very lengthy post on or around march 30.

tonya w

Here was Tonya's Rules...

Hi Everyone....
I want to first start out by saying "I am very nervous". Please remember that I am only a student trying to find a system that works for me, so that my husband and I can stay home and raise our son ourselves (instead of child care). I hate the thought of being reasponsible for somebody else losing money. So with that being said, lets evaluate my system, pick it apart, paper trade any ideas for improvement, and get wealthy together !!!


Buy Signals: Use multiple tech ind
1) trend
2) support resistance
3) fibonacci retracements
4) candlesticks
6) market forecast

When to Buy: Due to my "tempory day job" (that's what I call it now) I do all my "homework" at night. If I see an entry, I place a limit entry order for the following morning. Ideally I would like to wait for market open and watch the first hr or so of the trading day and watch for the perfect entry point, but at this time, it is just not practical. ****Although, I do wonder if i had the luxery of watching and waiting for the "perfect" entry, if I would ever find it, or if I would just stare at the computer screen all day at the edge of my chair****

How Much To Buy: Since this (trading $SPX) is new to me and more "dangerous", I am only trading very small positions, even in the paper acct. Reason being....I don't want to paper trade 10 contracts of the $SPX, make tons of money in the paper acct and get false hopes for my real acct. ...SO, I have been trading 1 contract of the $SPX or 10 contracts SPY (when I switch to real $, this is the position sizing I will use for a long while, until I am 100% comfortable with what I am doing) It is a conservative approach, but I am using a position size that wont make me want to jump off the bridge if the trade goes bad.


Order Exit: Place an automatic sell order when placing order entry. This works best for me, because I find myself renegoiating with myself regarding targets (this way the homework is done, it is an UNEMOTIONAL exit and I am only doing what the charts tell me to do). Also if my target is reach during the day, while at work, it will automatically sell for me.

Time Target: few hrs to 4 days

Additional Rules:
1) Do not hold over weekends (unless there is at least 3 weeks left befor expiration)
2) use a checklist for tech ind
3) define all outcomes before entering the trade
4) do not enter new positions on friday
5) REMEMBER **multiple indicators**

Okay, so there are the rules I use. These rules make for very few trades, BUT so far when I follow them they have worked very well. ** I'll admit, there have been a few times when I looked at the charts and thought to myself, "well I could place a trade for tomorrow, and see what happens" BUT then I look at my rules and say "NO, NO, NO, what is the sense of writing rules, if you are not going to follow them !! Don't be greedy, the perfect set up is just around the corner" **

** Support & Resistance are #1**
To define support/resistance, I use trend lines and fibonacci retracements.
When price has gotten to support/resistance, then I watch the candlesticks, the MACD, and the market foreecast for confirmation.

Setting automatic sell order:
I have been testing 2 exiting techniques.
#1) setting a market sell order when price hits the price target
#2) setting a limit sell order at the price I want to sell the option at.
I think the latter approach may work better for the $SPX, due to the large spreads b/n bid and could only guess what the market maker would do for a "market order"
I think style #1 may be better for SPY.

Candlesticks: There is alot to learn in this department, and it seems very easy to get overwhelmed with these little guys. I think the key is to keep it simple. There are a few candle formations that seem to be most important here. My very good friend/study partner bought me a book called "Profitable Candlestick Trading" by Stephen Bigalow, it has everything you will ever need to know about candlestick, and then some. Also, a fellow student of ours (I think his name is Benton) posted a website link on the forum which had good PRINTABLE information on candlestick formations....
Go here and print it out, it is just over 4 pages.

If you pull up a 5 yr or 2 yr chart of the $SPX and just look over it, you will be able to see how these tech indicators work together, if you are patient i know this can make you money....
5-13-05 market forecast shows a possible buy signal, 5-16-05 candlestick confirmation, MACD (histo) did not give buy signal until 5-17 or depending on when you got in, it was an easy 20 point move, no sweat (if you are daring (which i am trying not to be) maybe even a 30 point move.
If you bought enough time you could of stayed in until 6-22 and got almost 50 points. That would not be my strategy, it is too risky, greedy, and long term for me. I want to be "in, out, nobody gets hurt" that is my motto.

You can also see how using **multiple indicators **is CRITICAL, for instance, if you get a "call" buy signal from the market forecast at the top of the short term uptrend....well lets just say, it probably wont be such a great trade...remember **multiple indicators** may keep you out of a few good trades, but will also keep you out of alot of bad ones.
Because of the wild and crazy nature of the $spx, it is reasonable to take a 4-5 point move on almost any given day, so if you wait for the tecnicals to line up, you will have a great move. If you are reaping the rewards of a 10 -20 point move, who cares about the $2 spread??

Okay so now i will show you my paper trades for last week....I think last weeks will be most relavent, so I wont go back any farther, I don't want to "hog up" the blog (well maybe I already have)
I had/have resistance drawn in around $1433 (the previous weeks trade rode right up there like i thought and stopped).
3-22-07 DOJI (indecission) in the past, a doji at the top or bottom of the very short term trend has indicated a reversal
3-23-07 no confirmation, still waiting, MACD flattened out
3-26-07 now this candlestick has me puzzled, i know i have seen it in my readings and i think when found at the top of an uptrend, it indicates a possible it a hanging man ?? for the life of me, i cannot find where i read it...BUT i took it as a bearish reversal indicator, as long as i got confirmation with a bearish candle the following day. The MACD came down a very small notch and the blue & red line on the market forecast were heading down. Price still at my resistance line.
3-27-07 FINALLY confirmation, a bearish candlestick and price below resistance.
My price target was $1410. I picked $1410 b/c I thought it was reasonable regardless of whether the market stays bullish, bearish, or sideways. It had been used as resistance a few weeks ago, and seemed very attainable whichever way the market decides to go.
3-30-07 target was hit and i am out of the trades. It was a reasonable target and it was hit intraday and now i am out.

Now it is your turn, tell me what you think. This system can work on spx, spy, oex, rut, qqqq, ndx, etc....
I developed this system b/c I NEED something cut and dry, something with a check list and lines to follow.
I am terrible with fundamentals and i find myself being very impatient with the $5 price targets for regular stock moves.
I am anxious to hear what eveyone has to say...please paper trade it, modify it, paper trade it some more and let us all know what works...maybe a few of us can tade it on different ETFs and Indexs and compare notes to find out where it works best.

Well i am starving, and the baby keeps throwing his bottle, so gotta go.
Have a good weekend

Tonya W
daytona beach

Like i said before, one of my coaches begged and pleaded for me to paralell trade the SPY and $SPX, so I did and I must say the results were good either way.
I like the $SPX b/c it is fast, almost instant satisfaction (I am a lttle impatient and demanding at times) BUT i like the SPY for the spreads and the "calmness" I felt when trading it. Even thought my dolloar amt for each trade was about equal, I felt more calm with 10 "cheap" contracts, that I did with one expensive contract.

Post a Comment

About me

  • I'm Option Addict
  • From Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States
  • I am a professional trader and an instructor for Investools. I've had relations with the markets for 9 years. Born in Concord, CA, but reside in Saratoga Springs, Utah. Father of THREE, Husband of one.
My profile

Prescriptions Here!

Other stuff

Blogarama - 
The Blog Directory
Directory of 
Finance/Business Blogs Finance 
blogs Top Blogs Finance Blogs - BlogCatalog Blog Directory