do not mean to be a pain but where is part Une?

thank you
David S

Hey Jeff-

Are there suppose to be two videos, or just one? The most recent video listed says, part deux but I don't see a first part.

thanks,

liz
pasadena, ca

Here is the link to Part 1:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZW_PeOJHbM

Thanks for the videos. I appreciate you separating price patterns and bounces.
Thanks for all you do.
Amy

Ditto THANKS!

For some reason, CME isn't on there. It looks like it's setting up to be the trade of the year.

CME, broke down after earnings, does this hold the same significance it would if the earnings did not precede the break? Any thoughts? Thanks
Ladd, Cedar Rapids, IA

Ladd,

I actually think it's MORE significant. Earnings are behind us and the stock tanked BIG TIME after them. That means barring some ridiculous takeover offer (like BOT got from ICE), this should be a nice couple of months of downward pressure on CME.

Thanks Jeff and congratulations on PCAR.

Alessandra

Thanks Jeff
Two excellent videos. Thanks to you and the bloggers who are getting me closer to making that first trade.

I really hesitate to ask this (Jeff look away please) but I am confused with PCAR. I was in PCAR and was stopped out intraday (I hate stops) and then waited too long for a re-entry and was too close to earnings so I passed. What I heard and thought I learned was unless you know something and have done the research do NOT hold over earnings. So I followed that rule on X, POT, DECK and others as I had no time for the research. Now I hear congratulations all around for even forgetting to get out (following your rules) and getting a great profit. What am I missing as I thought it was all about the rules and not the profit (that is a tough one) and earnings could have easily been like X and then what? I am pleased for all that made great profits on PCAR over earnings just educate me so I can participate with you next time.
Please be kind and Jeff I hope you and your family had a great time at the Birthday party.
Jeff great videos and Bloggers great comments.
Thanks

thanks for the videos! very helpful!

liz
pasadena, ca

Bob,

Generally, I always get rid of any short term options ahead of earnings. In the case of PCAR, I made a conscious decision to hold in anticipation of a good report. I had calculated a potential complete loss on the option and was okay with that risk.

I also originally bought May options on PCAR knowing I would hold over earnings if it held it's trend up to that point.

It was intended as a short term play and it worked out which for me has been a rare event in this type of situation.

MikeH

Regarding Pcar, I held over earnings because you cant beat that trend, also I went back and looked at previous earnings and it looked like the stock took it well. Especially the last report on where it seemed that it created more buyer. Therefore I thought they had good prospects for the coming quarter. You can also take into account that most stocks are beating earnings this quarter and the probability is that this will help.

Now, I held OSG, I was not sure about this one, but the huge volume prior to earnings kind of told me that maybe someone knows something. Maybe they did research, and I am jumping on, also I had a profit on the calls that I was willing to let go if I was wrong. I read the report and it seems they did not do that well but maybe they have good things for them in the future. We will se how it opens and how the institutions take the news wish me luck.

David S

Is anybody trading DECK? Any comments on what is going on? I think the bad news on some retailers is taking a toll on this one but it has a great trend.

Anybody with some thoughts?

Wow on OSG it paid off!!!!

David S

Yeah David, I'm in DECK and have also wondered what the heck is going on. Bot the stock at the last trendline bounce and since it has not yet broken down below the trendline, I'm still in. Today may tell. I'm long on this stock, so I'll watch for a reversal before getting out.

cb in VA

B looks like a nice ascending triangle has formed. A break above 23.40 or so might be a good entry...but watch out for earnings.

cb in Va

CONGRATS david s !!!!!!!

I assume all of you took the slight bounce at the open to get into CME puts today. Congratulations.

I hope someone here played earning on AMZN

Thanks for the congrats!!! but I pass them on to Jeff he is the one that brought it up and the one that is teaching us how to be better traders.

Thanks Jeff!!

TSO is looking good, please do not blame me for the recommendation, but last earnings it took off also.

Bob H.
Here's a response from the abominations that held PCAR by mistake. In hindsight, here's what I've learned from it. PCAR was a great uptrending stock and I'm willing to stake Jeff's reputation on the fact that it will continue it's uptrend after a bit of a pullback. If you look at the volume and the price action two days prior to earnings, the chances were pretty good there was some great news coming down the pipeline. If I can find a stock like this again, it's not difficult to hold on to it right up to the day before earnings (like CY today, for instance.) If you see lots of volume and prices heading up, it might be worth holding on to half... or live life on the edge and hold 'em all... over earnings. I've been in CY for a week and a half and have 60% profits. Today it's not showing me any real volume (actually at 10:30 the VV% is -53... so that alone indicates people are sitting around with their fingers up their noses, wondering what's going to happen) and very little price movement. It's been on a tear the last 3 weeks, so I'm going to take my money and run. Might be a good spread play as it's made pretty good moves the last two earnings reports, but one went up and one went down.

As I get more experience I'll probably start to play earnings a bit more, but there's a good chance you'll get beat up 5 times for every home run you hit.

David S. Way to go on OSG. I wouldn't have held this one (on purpose) over earnings as the last 4 days were pretty indifferent on price movement and volume, although picking up, wasn't spectacular. Nicely read.

Wish I'd bought a put on CME. Looks a bit late on this particular cycle, but I'll watch for a good entry.

TSO is ramping up nicely towards earnings on May 3. Here's another one to keep a close eye on as we get within a day of earnings. Once again, I'm up almost 100% on it so I won't risk losing all of that, but this is sssooooooooo educational. Makes me feel all smart-like.

Chris and Catherine

PS. Jeff, any idea when the videos from Orlando will be out? We've decided to watch your session to see if you're worthy of our presence for your two sessions in Chicago. Or... should I say "to see if we're worthy to be in your two sessions." Heh..... ;) C&C

Brett,
CME has some serious resistance at the $525 range. I'm going to wait to see it break through that (now that I've waited this long) before jumping in. Besides, if I buy 100 puts it's guaranteed to go up.

So I'll buy one.

Maybe.

Chris and Catherine

All-
Thanks for the help on the PCAR over earnings confusion. I understood those that studied it and Chris your logic strangely I follow - not sure if that is good or bad for you! I missed that CME bounce too and now appears too late for entry. Brett (or others) how do you play something with an ATR > 10 for an exit and risk/reward? I will have to watch and listen to you wise masters a bit more before earnings plays are in my rules I am afraid. Thanks so much for giving your value time to educate a fellow (learning) trader.

All,

Are any of you system traders? I am trying to keep the emotion out of trading. I am not sure if following a strict system would do that. I have rules and I am using them, but there is room for discretion. Any thoughts on trading a system?

Amy

Guys,

Some setups for you (in case you missed my original recommendations)

OO is flagging (if you missed the original break)

BA is going to $100, so pick your entry.

CNI is heading higher, if nothing else just to spite Chris!

LSTR was a good entry yesterday, probably a better one today.

CMG is bouncing off support, but earnings are next week.

Can't really help you if you passed on VLCM 2 days ago.

Chris, i don't agree with your assessment of CME. I see $530 and $510 as major levels.

wow on TSO since my last post it was up 2.5 and now its up 5.

take a look at PBR that one is bouncing too!

WNR also

David S

WOW on TSO and yeah, this current run started right before their last earnings.

I have been in this since early March and will probably take my profits rather than risk any... I only have two contracts and HAPPY!

John

Brett,
BA to $100? I have the vague recollection of someone on this blog spouting something about AAPL would be to $100 and beyond (or was it "To infinity... and beyond"? I always get them mixed up) I don't doubt your savvyness for a second, but I am forcing myself to go only with the most excellent entries possible (like PCP 3 days ago...) As such I'll pass on it for now. I'm sure going to watch CME, though. Just hope I don't watch, and watch, and watch, as it slithers into the basement.

Can't help but smiling... everything in my basket of goodies is up today, except WCG and PCP. If this holds up... we'll be up 30% in three days. I'd retire and shoot possums in our back yard, but I want to get my hands on that new BA product which is coming out in 2008... the wicked 787!! Oooooo... Aaaahhhhhhh!!!

Shoulda' coulda' woulda' bought VLO 3 or 4 days ago. Right at a nice bottom in it's cycle.

Chris and Catherine

Take a look at FAST just broke out of a flag and has potential for a good move.

Also taking a hit on BUD it missed earnings, but I will turn it into a spread see if I can make some money on my mistake. I hope all investors have the 3 red arrow function and keep on selling beyond 50 :)

David S

Chris, you're a PSSI! Hey wait a minute, is that one yet ANOTHER triangle on my watchlist???

LOL!

What a great day.

Hey David- what are the 3 red arrows? Is that some Braveheart reference? Just kidding.

Guys, a white mocha to start the day and a burrito from CMG for lunch. Prepare for the afternoon rally.

brett, CMG is by far my favorite limited service chain restaurant, but they haven't put one here in Oklahoma City yet (we're on their website map for future development so I'm hopeful!)

Used to live in Houston and ate there all the time. You're killing me with jealousy over your lunch plans...

oh, how i miss it.

Anyone have any current thoughts on POT? Earnings due soon and I can't decide if I should sell calls against my June 160's. This stock has a serious case of paranoia.

Jerry

Hey Brett, and Tim
Eat your hearts out. I had Kraft Dinner and wienies for lunch with my 13 year old daughter. We like to call it Chris and Catherine's Gourmet Diner, here in the Great White North.
Brett, I'm trying to get a foot in on CMG as today looks like the perfect entry on this bounce. The cycle is getting a bit short here, but there's still some upside potential.

We bailed on DRYS Monday for a tidy 220% profit, and after a one day breather, I see it has resumed it's upward trend. I really thought I'd nailed that one and it was starting a re-tracement yesterday. I'm not perfect after all (no one tell Catherine.)

HOV is resuming it's downward trend. We got in yesterday and I think this one's heading down to $20. Huge volume yesterday, although today's VV is -22% so no great spike there.

Brett, forgive me, my friend. I shall now go and PSSI in the wind.

Chris and Catherine

Hey, I'm surprised no one was saying anything about X yesterday. Wiped out all my profits from the last couple of weeks, but I see it's headed back up again today. Hard to keep a steely man down.

Chris and Catherine

Dang, I go away for a few days and miss all kinds of good stuff here!

I'll be back next week, happy trading...

Lets go PCP, CMG, GS and IIG....

Some nice trades out there..make money.

C2 keep Brett in line and drinking Mochas!!!!