Welcome back Jeff,

See what happens when you leave the markets in the hands of the Jedi Marching Band? But there have been some great plays that are making the rounds right now.

Does anyone remember WYNN and LVS. Both are recovering from serious ilnesses, and earnings are just around the corner. With the way earnings have been boosting stuff lately, these could be turnaraounds in the making.

FPIC is a big flag, just re-intercepting it's diagonal support with earnings coming up tomorrow. Volume's ramping up in this downward part of the flag... does this mean anything to anyone?

Can't wait for the video. I missed 'da Cast yesterday as I was luxuriating in Business class on my way to Calgary. I will pop off now and give it a listen. Always a highlight of the day.

Hey Brett:

What do you think of MRVL if it brakes 16?

David S

David,

It's really too low for me to recommend doing anything with.

Chris, exited CNI and several others (FSLR, GLBL, EDU, NICE) yesterday before the close, so i don't care if their trains stop working.

I hope many of you caught the DECK retest this morning. I used it to double up on my position. When you look at risk/reward, it doesn't get much better.

Does anyone see any reason to stick with ISIL? Looks like it broke down early today but seems to be coming back. I have been disappointed with the trade, lost some money, but afraid to throw in the towel on my June 30 Call in case ISIL finds it's footing. Am I overreacting? Any thoughts?

Chuck
Orlando, FL

I think there was a reason why they recommended the june call this is a longer term pattern. I see strong support at 29.50 +/-. I am not getting out yet, but I am a riskier trader, Go to the 5 and 2 year chart and you may see a better picture. If you are not sure go with your analysis. It is not about being right or wrong but putting odds in your favor.
Hope that helps

Chuck,

Why did you take this trade?

Take a look at Dow Jones (DJ) on an unsolicited takeover bid by Newscorp offering a 50% premium at $60/share! Its likely too late, but thought I would share...what a move!

IYR (Real Estate ETF) is breaking diagnal support. I am going to look in this index for weak sisters.
PSA breaking support. Will probably follow in the direction of AVB.
Brett the spreads are starting to narrow on AVB. ;-)

Jamie

Jamie,

Watch KIM in this space also. It is on the video that releases later today :)

NFX....if you like support bounces I like the way this is setting up....minimal risk, a nice 3-4 pt move??

I am taking a beating this morning. My puts are going up and my call are going down. Days like this I question everything I "think" I know.

I am thinking HOG is about to leave the pig pen....a nice 5 pt move???

Amy,

Don't let it get to you! Emotion is your enemy, don't let it in!

Need some therapy? Just ask ;)

Brett,

You were spot on with AVB, I hope it pulls back a little this afternoon so that I can find a better entry. Right now the ask and bid are too far apart to try and enter.

Nice call! Thanks for your participation in the blog!

Gary

Yeah Brett, nice call on AVB!!!!

Hi Jeff....regarding ISIL and why I took the trade...I am embarassed to say that I got caught up the the Trade of the Week excitement on the Marketcast. Yes....I normally would have not taken this type of trade. I am not risky and I dislike Bull Flage patterns. I now understand that if you take a trade on an emotional basis....then emotions will rule your world while you are in that trade. I now feel like a fish out of water looking for a little rain.

Thanks!

Chuck
Orlando, FL

I found support at around 29.50 for ISIL as well.

liz
pasadena, ca

Chuck,

It happens. However, even when I take a trade based on emotion... I apply my trading rules. Obviously you were sold on the fact that someone thought it would move higher (over longer periods of time) and that can still very much be the case. Have you seen anything yet that makes you think it will not move higher?

The most important part of the trade is where you are going to exit. If you have not created an exit plan, get one quick! I don't see anything too negative about this stock myself...but always fall back on your exits (which should be there to point out WHEN the stock goes sour).

Hope this helps, good luck on your trade.

Is AXP showing a possible head and shoulder? Although the pattern calls for a small move that gap makes it interesting.
Axp usually runs with the market so if you see some weakness or profit taking, maybe this would work

Anyone like to comment

David S

Jeff,

take it easy! i DID say that AVB was your baby.

Guys, take a look at IIG. After the h&s reversal, it's breaking out of a triangle today.

Earnings are next week, but I think a small position early (a june $30 call perhaps) is a worthwhile gamble on the short squeeze we didn't get 3 months ago.

could easily be called a cup and handle too on AXP. lets wait and see

David S

Just having fun with you...

I am not sure what we are going to do about IIG though. Technically this one is mine too since it is on the video that nobody has watched yet.

Custody battle?

I want HALF!

Brett good call on Deck R 2R is great took it this morning.

Danny

Chuck, Jeff,

From the TOTW tip, I took ISIL on 4/25 as a flag breakout on better than average volume, not the previous five trading day’s volume but the average volume. I set my position size based on if the stock fell below $30 I would exit with a minimal loss. I exited yesterday based on that analysis not the fact that the stock went “sour”. The LT cup and handle support didn’t enter into my analysis. In retrospect, I may have reduced my position size to take on additional risk. I’m trying to be real strict on exiting trades when they break the S/R that I have drawn. Lately, I have had my fair share of trades that go against me when at my S/R lines.

Jeff/Brett funny thing is that i spend about 30 min to and hour looking for trades at night and maybe come up with a few, I spend 15 minutes reading the blog and I find more trades in that 15 minutes than I can all week. Thanks for all your input on the blog.

Danny

Jeff, I am in the same boat with Amy today. Feeling quite discouraged. The puts in my account are up and the bullish trades are down.

Where do we start with the therapy. I am willing to go through it publicly for the good of the group to learn from my psychosis. I would lay down on a couch but I need to be able to type here.

Ah yessssss..... the student overpowers the Master. Good this is not.

David I think you're working too hard to make a pattern on AXP. If that's an inverted H&S then it's from the Hunchback of Notre Dame. And it's already made the 4 points that I see in the head to neckline. There are much better patterns and bounces out there right now... although I'm not in any of them, aparently.

IIG... who wants to get involved in a custody battle? It's also nearing a diagonal support (although you kind of have to work at that one) but volume's weak today.

GLDN is having a tough time breaking $60 but looks like it could be at a good entry point. Earnings coming up soon... could be a catalyst one way or another... if it stays about $55 I think it could be an interesting play.

Hey, I have a question. Does anyone use the Black Scholes calculator? I was going to buy the June 520 Put on CME and the Black Scholes said it's worth $17.05 but it's price is $22.50 Seems awfully inflated. This is when you should be selling, rather than buying puts, although I wouldn't want to sell that one. Is this that dastardly Market Maker making hay while the sun shines? I can't afford a $22 put at this point so I'll have to let it go, but it seems.... well.... wrong.

Tim,

You name it dude. Afterall, I OWE U, right?

Do you have an idea you want to pursue here? Just psychology or trade analysis?

Amy, feel free to chime in!!!

I'm embarrassed to ask because it' so late, but anybody getting hammered by MON? Yesterday would have been the day to sell, but I was away from the computer. Today it's found some support around 57 (30 day MA), but my June option is down 80%. Do I wait until the end of the day to take this one out? Penny for your thoughts, cause pennies are all that's left :)

Peter V

Thanks also from me Brett - AVB was a super play .. jumped in yesterday ... nice stuff showing up today ....

All of you guys are great ... and Jeff .. you're to be commended for putting together something here that works ... I see suggestions ... I do my due diligence ... and make decisions based on my style ... it's a joy to be in here with you guys .. and AMY .. hold tight ... today is just ONE day ... you'll step over it ...

Thanks everyone! Just got back to the computer. Let me gather my thoughts, and I will send a post today.

What are thoughts on ESRX? A test off of the breakout. Enter now or wait for hammer confirmation?

Tim/Amy,

If you want to e-mail them to me, I can paste them into a full on post.

Let me know...

Jeff

sounds good, jeff. working on them now and i will email shortly.

Peter V.
My exit strategies seem to be sucking lately, but MON looks like it's just going lower, and lower as the day goes on (look at the 1 day chart) I'd say if you're going to get out... we're only 2 1/2 hours to close... it's probably as good a time as any. As Jeff says, don't be afraid to take your loss and move on.

Jeff, great to have you back! Amy and Tim I am with you... I posted before that my puts are going up and my calls down. Today and yesterday are just horrible for us as our account is now back to 2/27 levels! I know I will get this but right now...
Yes, I am still in MON too and will probably exit today. I seem to be away from the computer at the points in the day where others get in and do well. Jeff, I know you and Eric say that entry is not as important as other factors but I seem to enter late and then get stopped out for a lost. My losts are small (1% or less) but I have nearly NO winners to offset. Amy and Tim can I sit on the floor next to your couch and learn?
Eric seem so lonely by himself - Jeff.

MON

I am not in it so here is my non emotional take on it.
If I took the trade on 4/4 when it broke $57, my stop would have been a close below that breakout, at $57. Looks to me like it is re-testing that support level. I am guessing you had a target price of about a 6 or 7 pt move??

More than likely this is a trade I'd still be in and sweating like you guys. But I'd stick to my plan and exit accordingly.....

What say anyone else?

IIG

I went long IIG on 4/19 at the close of the day. I have a support line drawn in around $23.25...I was bailing out on a close below $23. With all the bullsihness on 4/11-4/13, I felt this was a good time to get in with a small risk. I would like to see more volume though today, but oh well, maybe tomorrow it will break..

$$

This sucks not having any available $$ to place trades....Dang....

Bob looks like IIG is making that move.

Danny