Yesterday...Seems So Far Away
I didn't panic.
In fact, if it weren't for a phone call yesterday, I might not have noticed.
The first thing I did was start selling off some of my positions. Primarily BIDU due to the downgrade. Once I noticed it was moving against me (thanks random caller) I reduced the position by about 60% to lock in some profits. That is what really pissed me off about yesterday, but keep in mind, my cost basis was $130 (Check my archives if you doubt me).
I added to MON. Did you expect anything else? I plan to make a market in the Nov's.
All of them.
I dollar cost averaged in only the best deals available, such as HANS, AMZN, ISRG, DRYS, FWLT, VDSI, PCLN and a few others. Being the great companies that they are, they decided to pay me back today.
I dismissed a few losers, and entered a few new positions...
However, I think many of you sometimes forget that I like to play things somewhat safe with my accounts. I stay diversified at all times, and always have a hedge against the market and or my account positions. Here are some examples...
Despite losing some big UNREALIZED gains, I made for a lot of them with nice blow-ups in ATI, LDK, SPN, ZION, RAIL, MAS, THQI, NCS, PAYX, CPA, WNR, CAH and PNR.
I also own Gold (GLD), which is intended to be a hedge.
And I always hedge with other instruments, specifically S&P Futures (Short), Crude Futures (long), and added to some Index puts on the Nasdaq (small position).
Yesterday was fine. Like I have always said, I try to put myself in a position where I don't care about the market. When I start my day every morning, I don't run to see what the market is doing, I run to see what my account is doing. I try to put the market in position where it is irrelevant to my account.
When I received this phone call that alerted me as to the change in the market, and asked how I was doing...I glanced at my bottom line and said, "Fine." Upon further inspection, I was able to make some necessary adjustments to moderate unrealized gains and turn them into realized gains, cut some losers and buy everything that was appropriate. Eventually it gets to the point where you become a well oiled machine.
Another day, another dollar.
The market was due for a little exhale, and I bought bullishly with confidence. If it were going to be a big deal, you would have seen a much bigger drop than we saw. Yesterday was an obstacle, and the Option Addict played though.
Recommendation: Cannonball often.
Long: Diversification
Short: Panic
Disclaimer: I cannonballed myself yesterday to relieve panic because I wasn't diversified.
nice Jeff,
I expected no less from you,,,nice post
Posted by sue | 10/12/2007 11:59:00 AM
Thanks Jeff
Because of you and others on the blog, I am also still smiling today. Yesterday didn't affect me much either, as it probably would have before.
As a matter of fact, I got busy, did some buying, and today, my account is almost as healthy as it was yesterday, before lunch.
I'm not a well oiled machine, but I at least knew how to react. That is all thanks to my learning here.
Thanks Again (I could never say it enough)
Posted by Jodi | 10/12/2007 12:01:00 PM
Said the Tin Man to Dorothy, "Oil Can! Oil Can!"
Jeff - as always it is invaluable to see behind the curtain of the master, thank you.
Posted by Unknown | 10/12/2007 12:12:00 PM
Thanks Jeff
Didn't panic yesterday...that is my story and I am sticking to it. Because of everything I have learned here, my acct is right back where we started yesterday. Plus some actually. A couple of puts helped stop the bleeding. I never would have had them in place a few months ago.
Do any of you OAs use the new TOS blackberry application. I just downloaded this and I must say it looks to be awesome. I was using the thinkmobile app., but this new download is great. The trading platform is always just a click away. No excuse for getting caught with your pants down.
Hope everybody had a great day today.
Barry
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:15:00 PM
Oooo I have one of those Blackberry devices and forgot about the update. I need to do that thanks Barry. We actually have three so I have to get Pam's working with TOS too.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 12:20:00 PM
Jeff-
Thanks for sharing. I'm definitely not a well oiled machine yet but less squeaky than I was before.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 12:25:00 PM
I would like to say thanks as well. To Jeff, and all the other OA's.... I can't even tell you how much I have learned over the past few months. Although yesterday's price action still left me feeling a little bit anxious, I did not panic either. I got rid of one trade (put) that I wasn't happy with, but the other ones had not failed... I took the opportunity to buy a few that I had been watching, but missed.
My account is actually doing better today than it was yesterday BEFORE the drop. And, I did take the opportunity book a few profits today.
Posted by LisaG | 10/12/2007 12:25:00 PM
Jeff,
What a great post! Someday I hope to be a well-oiled machine with regard to trading. Meanwhile, um, I'll keep cannonballing!
A question about your futures and index hedges...doesn't that work against the profits that you are making elsewhere? Are these very short term positions (day trading?).
Patti and Bob(and Pam),
I'm reposting my answer to you from the last thread before clean cups...
Bob (and Pam), I want to meet that guy with the Porsche! That's my motivational picture I keep next to my monitor. Right now my license tag says WITCH-1 but if I ever get my Porsche, it will probably say THX OA!
Patti, on YGE I see what you're saying about the wild swings. Before yesterday, that stock wasn't even on my radar. After I read about it and saw the chart and saw it was right on diag. REE I jumped in. I didn't like this morning's down draft but it never came close to crossing the line so I'm keeping it. The recent increase in volume tells me that institutions are just getting in. Barring a big correction, which I know could happen at any moment, it should give me a nice ride for a while.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 12:31:00 PM
Krystal,
From Michael Drew, "A cup with handle pattern is one of the most common consolidation patterns, usually occuring after an extended move in price." It doesn't specify up or down movement but my book shows the pattern after an uptrend so you may be correct.
Can someone weigh in here? Cup and handle in uptrends and downtrends?
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 12:32:00 PM
Krystal,
AMZN, HANS, NVDA, MTW and FLIR were at REE this morning. They have gone up some now. Depending on your rules, all are still potential picks.
James H.
Posted by Court Jester | 10/12/2007 12:34:00 PM
Doji Girl,
I've been quite happy with YGE myself. Didn't come close to crossing my line either. Thanks again for putting it on our radar!
Posted by LisaG | 10/12/2007 12:34:00 PM
Thanks, Jeff.
That's how us newbies learn how to handle so-called panic situations to where they no longer become panics, but just part of playing the market. That helped me tons.
Brett,
I took down some DRYS this morning along with adding to my CMI position. Got back into AAPL and NOV looks to still be at diaganol support. KSS is at support, but I am going to evaluate at the end of the day. CVD is at support, but I already own stock there. And I'm not sure, but looks like DECK is a cup and handle forming. I need to study it more.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:37:00 PM
It's easy not to panic when you are sitting on a profit and all you lost was unrealized gains. I prefer that feeling to sitting on a profit, and then losing 20% overnight due to a gap ... say like NTRI. Good thing that was paper, and GRMN is real :)
My 2 cents
Posted by Jay C | 10/12/2007 12:38:00 PM
Laney,
I'm with you on FIG because I have a line drawn in right at about $25. This could be a nice little breakout.. I'm just not sure if this pattern is one of the ones that can indicate trend reversal. Dunno...
Hmm...
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:39:00 PM
hopefully not jinxing myself, BIIB looks like it is finally making its move.
greg
Posted by Greg H | 10/12/2007 12:42:00 PM
Any thoughts on IBM- I see an earnings next week. I'm questioning my buy yesterday. WWyouD? (what would you do?) Thanks.
Posted by Lisa | 10/12/2007 12:42:00 PM
Jay,
I have to disagree. I lost $14,000 unrealized gains yesterday and it was just as tough as times when I've lost capital, maybe tougher...... Guess it depends on the trader.
What I would have done differently would have been to sell some of my positions that were tanking, but I was unable to be at the computer and had to rely on stops, which never seem to trigger quick enough when a position is moving against you (laughter.)
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:45:00 PM
Greg,
If you just jinxed that move, I'm gonna be very upset with you! :-)
Weren't you glad to see it showing such strength yesterday afternoon? It never gave me a reason to dump it.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 12:45:00 PM
You may not hear this again, but I want to thank Jim Cramer. About 5 minutes after adding to my position from this morning, he claimed BIDU is going to $500.
Thanks, man.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 12:49:00 PM
DG, maybe next time I see him I can get a picture with my phone. He always has a well dressed boy with him of about 4 I would guess. I will change my tags too for enough ROI.
Posted by Bob (and Pam) | 10/12/2007 12:50:00 PM
Ouch, Michelle! We're you in BIDU?
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 12:50:00 PM
Lisa, save your thanks for after you book your profits!
TSL is just bouncing off diag. REE. I am considering jumping in here but am concerned about those recent big red candles. If I wait until it clears the top of yesterday's candle, it will be too far from REE to manage my risk effectively. Can someone else take a look at this please?
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 12:51:00 PM
Brett,
You are too funny. I'll bet he's trying to unload his BIDU and get people to buy. Who cares, if it works for you and makes you money, then go Cramer (laugher.)
GS might be at an entry point depending on your rules. 10/9 was a better entry, but looks like a retest.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:51:00 PM
Lis,
IBM. That A.T. is a thing of beauty. But the only thing I don't like about buying just in front of earnings is that sometimes the stock will trade a little flat as investors are unsure as to whether they want to push the stock up any more. What's your time frame?
Also, according to ProphetCharts, you've bought into the peak of implied volatility. (I'm assuming you bought a call, but correct me if I'm wrong). Do you think implied volatility might drop off sharply after the earnings announcement? Again, this kinda goes back to your time frame...
What say you? Ha ha...
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:52:00 PM
Yes. Glad I only had one contract. I am so glad that Jeff and Eric hammer in diversify, diversify and position size or it could have put me out of the game.
I was trying to let my "winners" run. Ha!! I am still working on that one. But, hey, it could have been capital. Been there, done that, too.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:55:00 PM
Jeff,
Thank you for the post. This is truly helpful, and there's some info there that you just won't find anywhere else.
I hope everyone reads it twice and takes notes. I did.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 12:56:00 PM
And, Brett, Holy Buritto, what did you do to CMG? That thing has broken its nice little trend.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 12:56:00 PM
Brett-
I printed it!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 01:01:00 PM
Liz,
Great idea. I'm printing, too.
CAT
CROX (going sideways)
FCX (diaganol support)
ISRG (diaganol support) not excellent REE, but add-on position.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 01:04:00 PM
Laney,
I took this off the thepatternsite.com. I does state the cup should come after an uptrend.
Characteristic Discussion
Price trend Upward leading to the pattern. Price should rise by at least 30% leading to the cup.
Shape A rounded turn that looks like a cup with a handle on the right.
U-shaped cup The cup should be U-shaped, not V-shaped.
Handle The cup must have a handle on the right.
Cup duration From 7 to 65 weeks
Handle duration 1 week minimum but usually lasts 1 to 2 weeks.
Handle Forms in upper half of cup.
Cup Cup rims should be near the same price level.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 01:06:00 PM
Dogi Girl,
On TSL I see a potential C&H setting up. Would need to break 62.70ish to confirm. That could be an entry, or if you take it now as a bounce it's at an easy REE and watch the top of the cup area for break thru or fall back. Least that's how I see it.
CTRP - bouncing from diagonal and MA w/gd. volume.
Posted by Loretta | 10/12/2007 01:11:00 PM
Thanks, Loretta!
Brett, I printed it out also.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 01:17:00 PM
DG, on TSL, I know what you mean about those candles but I'm just using that trend line.
Jamie
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 01:19:00 PM
Michelle,
Do you honestly think Cramer said for everyone to buy BIDU so that he could sell his position is his charitable trust? Come on, get real.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 01:21:00 PM
Bob (and Pam), great list. I'm actually IN ELON. Waiting for the break...
Laney, looks like we got our answer!
Sean M., Thanks for the good info!
James H., yet another good list!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 01:21:00 PM
Michelle,
I think you are nuts. First GOOG, now BIDU? Where do you get your information from? Jeeeesh......
Brett, good call.
Posted by Raimo | 10/12/2007 01:23:00 PM
MTN..finally a great entry on one of my favorites!!
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 01:24:00 PM
Puts...ACIW rolling over today. Sorry if someone already mentioned it.
Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 01:25:00 PM
Thanks, Sean. What a great site. Wish I'd read that before posting. Duh! I feel very foolish.
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 01:27:00 PM
Raimo,
Does your tree have internet access? Where have you been all day??
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 01:33:00 PM
Michelle,
I could really use you're thoughts on something. Could you please email me....
morton_c@bellsouth.net
thank,
Calvin
Posted by Calvin | 10/12/2007 01:38:00 PM
JEFF,
Thanks for the great and timely post.
as a follow-on to that sometime it would be great to hear you address the portfolio heat topic sometime.That came up in the blog. It seems people range from 100% invested to 50% invested as their general plan. It would seem with 15
positions @ 2% risk of portfolio it's risking 30% of your portfolio (or 15%@ 1% risk). I know this varies by individual risk tolerance, but are there some general guidelines professional traders use about how much of portfolio invested at any one time?
Obviously there would be different guidelines for an IRA vs a general account as well. I'm most interested in the thinking for an option account. TOS workshop teaches only 25-35% invested!!??? for portfolio management. Or does being diversified as you describe in today's article (both sides or market)account for taking care of portfolio heat?? THANKS for all you do. My trading has certainly advanced under your teachings!!! And thanks to all the bloggers too sharing their wisdom, trades, triumphs & struggles as we all learn together.
What are others thoughts on this as well. Thanks!!
Posted by Loretta | 10/12/2007 01:39:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by Mike | 10/12/2007 01:43:00 PM
Loretta,
I've been wondering about the same thing!
:)
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 01:43:00 PM
Jeff,
Thanks for BIIB. It is behaving beautifully.
And thanks for your calming words of wisdom.
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 01:43:00 PM
Jeff,
It's been said many times today, but in my opinion, it can't be overstated... THANKS!
You just give and give and give to us... we appreciate your efforts and appreciate your patience in putting up with a bunch of goofs like us!
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 01:48:00 PM
ENR
Retest of flag breakout predicting $17 move.
Options are a bit expensive with wide bid/ask.
Posted by Mike | 10/12/2007 01:48:00 PM
Doji Girl brings up a great question...
"A question about your futures and index hedges...doesn't that work against the profits that you are making elsewhere? Are these very short term positions (day trading?)."
Yes. It does.
However, how much of your profits are you willing to risk to be safe?
Me--about 3-5%. I hate to give away money. But as you can see, net-net at the end of the day I still make money, although not as much as I would have, had I not hedged myself.
The topic of futures and hedging is on its way, I have been saying this for months. But get yourself ready to become a "Futures Addict."
Disclaimer: The Option Addict has been a small time futures Addict since 2003. Small time, meaning he trades a small percent of his funds with futures.
Posted by Option Addict | 10/12/2007 01:53:00 PM
Thanks for ACIW. Wasn't this one TSAI at one point? Wonder why the ticker change.
Also, SAFM looks great for a put play. Sym triangle break yesterday with a nice retest today.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 01:56:00 PM
Great post! I can't think of a situation where panicking EVER makes anything better. Hammering home the idea of planning and diversifying helped me to not panic at all yesterday. Today's action seems to indicate the bull is still running, so says the tape.
Posted by Ryan in Cowtown | 10/12/2007 01:58:00 PM
Can't wait, Jeff! Any plans on becoming a Currency Addict as well?
:-)
Thanks for all you do!
SausalitoMike
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 02:02:00 PM
Steven-
I had all my alerts set so I wasn't really paying attention to DRYS while I was looking at other charts, etc and OMG! Yippy! What a nice surprise today.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 02:05:00 PM
Michelle, You are some great trader. I really admire your attitude. You were down $14,000 in your account yesterday and you don't let it get to you at all. You are a great example for all of us.
Great post, Loretta. I'd be interested in knowing Jeff's thoughts on that too.
--Patti
Posted by PCurry | 10/12/2007 02:06:00 PM
Jeff-
Thanks for answering Doji Girl's question. I had the same one. It's just one more piece of information to add to my arsenal.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 02:08:00 PM
Holy smokes! I feel bad for those who lost yesterday but for me personally it was a great opportunity to move back into the market again after my sell-off earlier in the week.
When the market tanked so quick and deep, I almost panicked looking for what to buy since it seemed to go down on news without real lasting impact. I finally settled down and went back to the basics and picked up several great positions. I had to think, WWJB (What would Jeff buy).
Through the first of august I whittled my account down some 37%. Now it is only down 21% for the year - I am certainly heading the right way! Thanks to all of you who contribute so much, especially when your philosophy and reasoning comes out. It is a tremendous help. And a way big thank-you to the biggest OA out there - thanks Jeff. You are the best thing that IT has going for it.
I'll report back when I'm down only 14%. At this rate the end of the month!
Thanks again,
Jim
Posted by 2020 | 10/12/2007 02:09:00 PM
Jeff and all the OA's,
This has been a good week. My account is up over 50% since 9/28 when Garmin (oops, did I say that out loud?) tanked. I have said this before, but I know I would not have stuck with this had it not been for Jeff and this blog. Face it, trading, although I love it,is lonely and lacks human contact and feedback. I suspect that is one of the many reasons that Jeff has a day job and why this blog exists. Following this blog hourly is incredibly educational but it also provides humor, contact, feedback and poetry to boot. A huge thanks to everyone and have a great weekend.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 02:11:00 PM
Jeff,
I am really looking forward to your post on futures and hedging, as I would really like to be in a position like that where I really don't care what the market does.
Thanks again for everything.
Well, getting out looks like I left about 1250 on the table for today, not to mention we had buying into close over the weekend and stocks closing at highs so that seems fairly bullish to me. I meade the decision and am living with it.
I'll see how it shapes up on monday and take on some positions again after doing some research this weekend, hopefully with some hedging by "the grace of Jeff".
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 02:12:00 PM
I have to say, I am happy with the way today ended. So many stocks rebounded nicely. A lot of great entries yesterday and today.
Jeff-
You had some really great blogs this week. Thank you.
Brett & Raimo-
Both of you had some really great educational words of wisdom yourselves this week. Thanks!
Add thanks to everybody else for all your input. Now, I guess we'll just see what Monday brings.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 02:15:00 PM
If being down $14,000 in a day makes you a great trader then I'm Ed Fricking Seykota!
I'm just kidding (about the Ed Seykota part). One thing I've learned since June is that if you're going to trade full-time you need to be able to forget bad days by the next morning. It's the hardest thing to do, watching lost profits run away from you and looking back on dumb decisions made.
The big picture is all that matters. I strive to be as consistent and as profitable as Jeff one day, but he's been not only a tremendous instructor but one hell of a motivator. Just trying to be profitable when he's profitable has raised my bar higher than I could have ever expected in my first year as a full-time trader.
So if there's a lesson here, it's that you're going to have the Garmins, the Lamars, the ICE's. You're going to make mistakes and you're going to panic. Only seasoned traders can avoid some of the pitfalls we all go through. But what's really important is to preserve capital, learn from mistakes, and MOVE ON IMMEDIATELY. The best part of option trading is that you can wipe out a week's worth of mistakes in a single day if you stay focused. Yesterday I felt like the dumbest trader in the world. Today, I bounced back and reviewed my week as a whole and guess what? It was my best week ever (in a season of damn good weeks).
Have a great weekend everyone!!
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 02:17:00 PM
Quick check of the damages within the past 25 hours: One position up 42%, one up 43%, one up 71% and the others even. Not a bad days work. Now when I have in my account what some of the rest of you do, that would turn into some serious moola. For now its not quite a months wages - in a day!
Thanks again for everyones help.
Jim
Posted by 2020 | 10/12/2007 02:18:00 PM
Brett,
SAFM is pretty! I can't wait to get my hands on that one.
Tks, Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 02:38:00 PM
Jeff-
Just wanted to post another thanks for you and this blog. Yesterday, a, I didn't panic but I did close positions that crossed the "line" and took profits on others. Today, I gained back nearly all of what was lost yesterday. And this weekend, I'll sleep happy comfortable with my position size and that in spite of it all, I'm still up 2% on the week...all because of you and the great people on this blog. Let's keep the education coming. I'm lovin it! :)
ps. Yeah 2% doesn't sound like much, but for me trading the common and coming off a 75% market "tuition", it might as well be a million bucks. Oh, and if I can do this for 52 more weeks....you do the math.
Posted by Matt | 10/12/2007 02:39:00 PM
Sean,
It took a little massaging, but I finally got my WNR and SPLS. My license plate will be OPTN ADCT although after your posts I'm considering BIG WNR. But then Catherine could never drive it.
Brett, great post. Thanks for that. It's nice to hear where you're at mentally. We're all trying to get to the point you're at, and it's nice to know that you still have "those days" from time to time. We don't have to be perfect to do well.
Jeff thanks a million for the blog this week. I think everyone here has improved their trading immensley lately. I look at my trading this year like an ascending triangle. My account was at 100 and on 2/27 went to 50. then it climbed back up to 100 and in mid August went to 75. Then it climbed back to 100 and yesterday went to 95 and today it's back to 100. A perfect ascending triangle that will now become a monster breakout. And there's only one reason for it. Well... actually there are many but they are all attributable to this blog. Without it I'm pretty sure I'd be sitting in a dumpster somewhere yelling "Cannonball!!" On this weekend after our Canadian Thanksgiving I once again say "Thank you."
PS liz... I'm pissed that I took EXM instead of DRYS. I'm pretty sure you're responsible for that so I will allow you to buy me a drink next time I'm in LA. I did, however get into HANS today so my weekend is not ruined. Congrats to you on that one.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 02:46:00 PM
Amen Brett!
I too had my best week ever!
I didn't panic. I actually chuckled a bit. I discarded a couple. I bought a few. I hedged a bit more. I studied after the kids went to sleep.
One odd thing I did notice during yesterday�s early rally. The VIX was flat. I mentioned it to a coworker and we said to each other �what does that mean?� Well, my guess is that it means that be ultra cautious or ambitious when the VIX isn�t moving in the opposite direction of the marker because the slightest news could send people running� Just a thought.
Life is good!
Now a Loca Moca to get me through the afternoon to the Promised Land, a glass of wine and a beer with my wife!
A good weekend to all.
Posted by Logan | 10/12/2007 02:47:00 PM
Kim,
You're welcome to SAFM. Just keep your hands off my WNR.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 02:47:00 PM
In response to The Phoenix's post:
For those of you that may be thinking that Brett didn't get killed yesterday during the reversal and subsequently have a great week, I was there with him. He got killed. And he stayed poised for success.
I was watching the market reverse and had no way to take any action. I called Brett. He wasn't in any mood to talk but he helped me anyway. He took time to tell me how bad I was getting killed on my positions on the phone while managing his own.
He did have his best week ever by staying focused. And he did it while coaching a rookie like me back to my terminal without appearing panicked. It helped me to have my best week of my short tenure as well.
I am just confirming that if you stay focused, and trade your plan, you can weather the greatest of storms.
Brett, thanks for being there for me in your time of peril! May the Blue Phoenix be your guide.
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/12/2007 02:48:00 PM
Brett,
Great post, very true. Even though I got out and left money on the table I may have missed some move but next week will present many more opportunities to make that up and more.
I think since I have gotten back in a few weeks ago with my new refined strategy thanks to all of you and Jeff I close to averaging a 1k gain per day, that goes a long way in proving that smaller position sizing can really pay off if you choose the right stocks.
I'll admit part of me wants to go all in on GOOG if it pulls back to a support line, LOL, however I am staying strong because in the long run that will not work and I know it and if I start to make stupid risky exceptions that will be a bad habit.
Jeff, I am also curious how much you actually day trade? So far it seems your strategy works pretty well, as I was thinking if I could day trade and make 1k a day average that would be good, and so far I haven't even had to do that, the stocks take care of that for me.
do you sit on most positions till your target like usual, if you do day trade what is your preferred instrument?
thanks
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 02:51:00 PM
C4-
Thank you for that post. It meant a lot to me.
THE PHOENIX
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 02:57:00 PM
Jim,
That is funny I am also down 21% for the year now, I'll race you back to even! Jk, it's prob more sad I was even down that much when I used to be up. I am just thankful that I am learning these lessons so early in my career, i feel like I am way ahead of the learning curve mostly due to this blog.
I am going to write a book "how to make money in options" It will contain one page and will say "go to www.optionaddict.blogspot.com"
I'll charge 20 dollars and give Jeff most of the profits, LOL.
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 03:01:00 PM
Aw, come on, Raimo. I put laughter after it. I don't know what Cramer is up to. I don't even listen to him. I assumed Brett was making fun of his picks, too. I was trying to be funny. I guess I didn't get there.
Glad everybody bounced back today.
Jeff,
Thanks again for that post. It was awesome.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 03:01:00 PM
Chris,
I got screwed by WNR once already this week. So you are welcome to hold tight onto your WNR until I'm ready to play with it again.
Arty and Brett,
I really liked that post as well. I need to reflect on it some more. I'm printing it to put with Jeff's.
Kim
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 03:04:00 PM
COL me crazy... but have a look.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:05:00 PM
I know Jeff had BIIB on his watchlist this week...
Their board just put them up for sale.
Unbelievable.
Posted by Brett | 10/12/2007 03:07:00 PM
Chris-
I'll COL you crazy!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:07:00 PM
Patti,
Thanks for the post. I am "becoming" a great trader. Learning what I could have done differently and taking advantage of a day like today is where we learn tons. Jeff and Brett and Raimo gave us some great insight on how to look at the market when some of us start to panic.
I am learning and learning. Glad something I said helped you.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 03:08:00 PM
Kim,
Did you know that popcorn in your mouth will stick to the screen of your computer like stucco, if it's expelled with the right velocity?
Nice one.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:08:00 PM
Kim-
Thanks for the laugh. Between you and Chris! LOL!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:09:00 PM
Michelle-
They're like annoying brothers sometimes, don't you think?
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:11:00 PM
Brett-
OMG!!! I just took a look at BIIB! And I was excited that it bounced up $2.31.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:13:00 PM
BIIB is one that I got into last week and it hadn't made enough profit by yesterday for me to get out. Thank goodness.
Brett, is it true someone's going to pay 100/share? Or is that a dream. Just kidding. I'm hoping that this isn't like X a while back. Blip on a buyout rumour followed immediately by denials, much stomping of feet... and then a big... loud.... nothing.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:14:00 PM
agree,,,BIIB,,,going to be a nice present on monday,,,according to the theo calculator,,,if it is up $15 on monday that will be my first 1000% plus gainer
Posted by sue | 10/12/2007 03:18:00 PM
Chris-
I'm kinda excited. I haven't been in a stock that decides to move up like this, rumor or not. BIDU doesn't count. I mean, a smaller priced stock that decides to move up big. I guess we'll see what happens on Monday. In the meantime, I'll be excited for the ride. This will definitely surpass my target. Yippy!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:19:00 PM
If you need some excitement... Blame it on RIO.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:20:00 PM
BIIB - PUT ITSELF UP FOR SALE - ICAHN POSSIBLE BUYER, ALREADY SHAREHOLDER.
EXCELLENT WORK, JEFF
(I know I'm not supposed use all caps, and I know I'm not supposed to get emotional, either, but I can't help myself)
Up $13 in after hours trading on that news (Fast Money)
Thank you, Thank You, Thank you, Jeff
Posted by VolSmile | 10/12/2007 03:24:00 PM
Huh... disregard that last post... If you're looking for excitement I see BIIB up $11.42 in after hours. Forget about RIO.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:24:00 PM
Liz,
Oh, well. Trying to add a little levity, and guess I have a different sense of humor. I am just trying to bounce back and make some money like everybody else.
Jeff's posting on hedging was really good. That's where I could have also helped the situation yesterday (insurance.)
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 03:28:00 PM
Interestingly, the blip that X had back in June was on a Friday and the whole thing fizzled by monday. If this holds up over the weekend I'm cashing in my chips first thing Monday morning. Don't know how it'll affect my options (what with delta, and theta, and gertrude) but it's possible this could be a 500 percenter.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 03:30:00 PM
Gertrude.....thats awesome!
Posted by Jodi | 10/12/2007 03:36:00 PM
Chris,
Looks like you can Join Bret and me in Vegas now. :-) haha.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 03:36:00 PM
Chris-
That Gertrude will get you every time!
Even if it does fizzle... I'm still excited by the fact that it went up $2.31 today. ;-)
All I can say for this week is... I'm so glad my sinus infection is over! Trading while it feels like someone is stabbing the inside of your head and eye SUCKED! And I know I made some stupid mistakes because of being light headed and dizzy. So, I am so glad that I feel like myself again. Now I can go back to concentrating on my portfolio goal for this month.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 03:38:00 PM
I effectively caused another buy-out in BIIB. You are welcome.
I just got off the phone with the CEO and we both agreed that putting the company up for sale was a better alternative than a hostile take-over from the Option Addict.
I am so proud of myself I am tempted to swear.
How is that for a pre-cursor to a phenomenal weekend?
Posted by Option Addict | 10/12/2007 03:46:00 PM
KIm,
That post to Chris was very funny. I am still laughing.
Chris,
As per your post: "Sean,
It took a little massaging, but I finally got my WNR and SPLS. My license plate will be OPTN ADCT although after your posts I'm considering BIG WNR. But then Catherine could never drive it".
Massaging SPLS sounds painful and massaging your WNR.....Well you should have gotten over that years ago! Think of your eyesight man, you are a pilot!!
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 03:53:00 PM
BIIB -- WHEEEEE!
I jumped on this one early today and was pleased to have a 40% profit at the end of the day. Wow. I have NEVER had one of my positions do this. I am crossing everything that this lasts through to Monday at least so I can collect. This was the stock I posted about early today that had a bid higher than the ask for a while this morning.
THANK YOU JEFF for putting this in front of me last week. Or whenever it was.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 03:54:00 PM
Oh, Jeff...I also confess to being a futures addict since, um, you were in diapers though I haven't traded them in several years. Looking forward to learning how to do it CORRECTLY.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 03:57:00 PM
Jeff,
A hostile takeover by the Angry Trader would be a horrible thing to behold. I applaud the CEO in his wisdom.
I told Catherine it will be very, very hard to not watch the after hours on this thing every hour of the whole weekend. This could pay for the OA get together we're going to have in Feb. I now vote for Cancun. They have cool drinks with little umbrellas. And pool girls and boys. Eye candy everywhere!!
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:00:00 PM
Chris and Sean,
Do you really want to combine SPLS and WNRs into the same sentence? Sounds like a Jackass moment to me...
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 04:01:00 PM
DG,
Jeff in diapers? Already? I thought that was an old person's problem.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:02:00 PM
BIIB-U-TIFUL!!
Posted by Ryan in Cowtown | 10/12/2007 04:02:00 PM
Oh.My.Word.
I just came home from teaching Body Pump to see BIIB. I've had it for a week.
Thank-you, Jeff! Thank-you addicts!
Woo-hoo! Now I can make my car payment!
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 04:15:00 PM
Just trying to catch up here and realize I am late for the dojo...going to bang those drums in thanks for the trading gods and Jeff today.
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/12/2007 04:18:00 PM
I just read throught all of the comments and I am literally laughing out loud. All this WNR talk and I can't contribute because my mother and father read this blog!
You guys are hilarious. :-)
Who was doing the south Florida get together? I am going to be in Ft.Lauderdale visiting my parents in January. Anyone want to meet up with me and my brood o'boys?
Posted by Laney | 10/12/2007 04:20:00 PM
Are you sick and tired of making cheap money? Looking to diversify into overpriced options? Tired of the good ol' US of A? Looking for some foreign excitement?
Look no further!!! ACH. It's quadrupled this year and shows no sign of fatigue (that's an aluminum joke. Metal fatigue? Pilots hate it. Get it?)
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:24:00 PM
Chris,
You are too funny. Sounding a bit like beannie.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 04:27:00 PM
I went to catch up on my Oprah recordings for the week when a big blue bird landed on a branch outside my window and was saying BIIB, BIIB, BIIB. It didn't really mean much to me till I just read the Blog. I think it is going to be a good weekend.
Cheers,
C4
Posted by The Artist Formerly Known as ARTY | 10/12/2007 04:30:00 PM
Aaaggggghhhhhhh!!!! I'm sounding like beannie? Does this my print will become weannie? Like WNR? Someone scratch my eyes out!!!!
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:30:00 PM
Careful Chris,
If your WNR and your Font shrink at the same time, you can't blame it on the shower.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 04:31:00 PM
Hey this is cool. All the BIIB weannies are coming out of the woodwork. TAFKAA... welcome to the select group. We will hold ourselves superior to mere mortals and form our own club. We'll have our own secret handshake and speak our own language. We will be known as the Lobster people.
We wear BIIBs.
Ha?
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:34:00 PM
Sean,
Laney and I don't shower any more.
Together.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:35:00 PM
Chris,
Your memory of blog comments is impressive.
Laney, I am sure the reason you and Chris don't shower anymore is because of his font size...isn't it??
Posted by Sean M. | 10/12/2007 04:39:00 PM
Chris, I sold out of ACH today, it hit my target, or got close of 80, however, i really am considering getting back in, I know we aren't supposed to really be concerned with fundamentals, however in this case I feel like from a valuation perspective ACH is still way undervalued, I have watched it since april, but the PE is only at 6.22, 6.22 and 12.80 eps, with a big dividend, its crazy.
with china trying to catch up in airlines thats why I initially liked this along with the low PE, not to mention I think we will move more to aluminum usage, especially with china's construction.
Ben
Posted by Anonymous | 10/12/2007 04:40:00 PM
Okay, you guys are all cracking me up! I think everybody's lost it!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 04:41:00 PM
Ben-
You can be concerned with fundamentals if you want to. What works for you?
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 04:43:00 PM
OK the Big Kahuna has put his foot down.
***********CLEAN CUPS **************
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/12/2007 04:44:00 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/12/2007 04:45:00 PM
ACH and RIO look great. They've moved a lot within this last year. And they both have quite a bit of open interest which is always a major plus.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/12/2007 04:47:00 PM