Excuses...
That was a mean U-turn that the market made today. Remember that 20 day SPX chart I shared on Monday? It marked a weekly top, no doubt.
Despite the exfoliation of profits in my calls today, China has kept me in the black. I have to give a nod to PTR, SNP, FXI, LFC, YZC, FSLR, BCSI, CHU, CMG, CNQR, CTRP, MTW, NVDA and CNQ. I also have to give a shout out to all my shorts for today's turn around, especially AOS, ZION, NCS, CPA, AVTR, GLYT, JCP and a few others.
By the way, I like how MCRS is setting up. I might add instead of subtract in front of earnings.
As I pondered today's topic, I looked no further than the topic of patterns. One of the most predominant patterns I am seeing across the market is the cup and handle. If you have read this blog for a decent period of time you will know that I am not a big fan of this pattern. However, rather than speak in biases, I will teach facts and you can decide on your own.
The pattern falls into the trend continuation category, which means upon breakout, prices will advance in the direction of the prior uptrend. The time frame is ideally for the pattern to form and complete within 6 months on a daily chart. The cup will be a "U" shape (not a "V") that occurs near or at the top of an uptrend. The handle should occur just off the second top of the "U" shape, and normally completes within a month. As with any breakout, volume is expected on the breakout.
Target price is measure by the depth of the cup, from top to bottom. Expected time frame is measured by how long the pattern has taken to form.
Here are a couple examples to watch...
AXE
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SECOND REMINDER- PLEASE, CAST YOUR VOTE!!!
I am still in the running for top business blog, top video blog, education blog, and podcast blog. I sure could use a vote since the voting ends this Friday.
All you need to do is click here, to sign up.
Once you do, Click here to cast your vote.
Recommendation: A win for me, will mean a win for all of you. Trust me.
Long: Today, it's fajitas.
Short: Operating machinery, such as a trading blog.
Disclaimer: If you don't vote, I will track you down with a dose of the following...
Guys, I'm with Laney... can we cut back on the profanity, please?...
:)
Posted by Unknown | 10/17/2007 12:44:00 PM
Dandruff for the bears...
It's head and shoulders time!!
Posted by Brett | 10/17/2007 12:52:00 PM
Laney and Krystal,
I curtailed the use of SH$t because that was Brett, not me speaking. And that was a real conversation between me and Brett, not ficticious.
However, for those that know me and how long I have been on this blog, every so often the use of the F bomb (it is not all that often)...well, I drop it.. And I agree with you, for the most part, it is inappropiate on this blog.
But I do use it, in a freindly context, never hurtful of meaningless, and again, rarely. Sometimes, for me, it just works,well, it's just me. If you don't like it, I apologize up front for both past and any future use of it.
Now, enough of these FREAKING bears, let my bulls run!!
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 12:55:00 PM
Brett,
now you are beating up on huskers also. Haven't we had enough of that already.
Tom Osborne to the rescue!
Posted by mahmood | 10/17/2007 12:56:00 PM
Raimo,
I appreciate the apology. That was very nice of you. And you're right, it was never used to be hurtful.
And I agree... I want the bulls BACK!!!
DSX and CNQ are the only ones being nice to me today. COP has turned its back on me. ELON went down the crapper. I dropped RESP. And now XOM is being mean to me... :(
What's a girl to do?
Posted by Unknown | 10/17/2007 12:59:00 PM
Thank-you, Raimo. You are a gracious blog mate. :-)
Posted by Laney | 10/17/2007 12:59:00 PM
Brett - What the (censored) are you talking about with the head & shoulders reference??
Posted by Doji Girl | 10/17/2007 01:00:00 PM
HMIN really picking up here finally
greg
Posted by Greg H | 10/17/2007 01:02:00 PM
Doji,
Take a look at the one day on the DIA. Haven't looked at the QQQQ's or SPY.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/17/2007 01:04:00 PM
Doji,
Funny. And I like that better! Thanks!
:)
Posted by Unknown | 10/17/2007 01:06:00 PM
Besides the earnings announcement to be on 10/25, this is all I could find on RESP.
Princeton, New Jersey, Sept. 14 (Bloomberg Data) -- Respironics Inc. (RESP US) was downgraded to ``hold'' from ``buy'' by analyst Daniel Scalzi at Matrix USA.
Posted by Sean M. | 10/17/2007 01:10:00 PM
DG-
The intraday charts on the indices (particularly the DIA) showed inverse head-and-shoulders reversals.
Posted by Brett | 10/17/2007 01:12:00 PM
LAney....
Blog mate..wait a minute...you see the gun I am holding....BLOG MATE???
Ok, I am your blog mate....LOL....
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 01:14:00 PM
SLB is testing my (censored) patience today. Sitting right on diagonal support with earnings in 2 days.
Under normal circumstances, I would stay put or even add here. Now I'm considering reducing position by 1/2.
Posted by Sam_H | 10/17/2007 01:16:00 PM
Hey I have an idea. Let's all form our own investment company and issue Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on stocks as we want them to move. We could become the Cramer of options. We'd call the company Option Adjusters of America. No one would know what we do, and we could hold monthly meetings where we'd serve conopes and Roadkill stew. In honour of Raimo. How can one guy's opinion (who no one has heard of) make such a difference to RESP?
I have an opinion... and when Catherine tells me what it is, I'll share it with you.
Things are bouncing back nicely this afternoon. XOM has given back half of what it took away this morning. I took my Mom to lunch today and couldn't wait to get back and see how the blog was doing. I think I need a lobotomy. I'll see if I can find a "self taught" course and save the fee.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/17/2007 01:19:00 PM
C'mon Raimo we know you'd be Laney's Blog Slave if she asked. How could you possible say no to someone named Laney?
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/17/2007 01:22:00 PM
LOL, Raimo. I think that you are all bark and no bite. Admit it, you're a teddy bear.
Blog slave? Hmmm.... maybe my trading slave.:-)
Posted by Laney | 10/17/2007 01:24:00 PM
HMIN
gotta love China....
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 01:29:00 PM
Laney, don't F@#$ing (partially censored) tease me now! I might want to be your slave.....
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 01:31:00 PM
Chris-
Per your comment about NM... Took a look at it. It's very nice looking as well.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/17/2007 01:36:00 PM
Anyone else liking the setup on RIO? Looks like a nice triangle after a monster run-up...
Also, anyone know what time Friday the voting ends? I would hate to have all my email addresses go to waste!
Posted by Unknown | 10/17/2007 01:37:00 PM
Raimo-
Do you own every china stock out there? Geez!
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/17/2007 01:38:00 PM
I put cartoons on for my kids so I could have a few minutes with the blog and my portfolio before closing bell.
I know it's not a stock from China but you gotta love RIMM today. And I'm loving that everything has gone up slightly.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/17/2007 01:42:00 PM
Brian-
Maybe a tiny pennant? I see it consolidating and volume staying pretty even. I like consolidation. It seems like a lot of stocks are hovering, waiting for that 30 day moving average to catch up and then they're bouncing up and off of that.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/17/2007 01:45:00 PM
PHO is making a little bounce up today and it's near REE.
liz
Posted by liz & grant | 10/17/2007 01:47:00 PM
Raimo,
You didn't even know HMIN was a China stock until i TOLD YOU today!!!
Then again, welcome aboard. Any china stock raimo touches turns to gold. Thank you for your purchase.
Posted by Brett | 10/17/2007 01:48:00 PM
Raimo,
Please make a purchase of CHU in that case.
Anyone in PAYX? I'm not liking the recent price action against my puts.
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/17/2007 01:51:00 PM
Would someone please buy a Dec 40 put on WNR? It's way up but no one's buying. Which means, of course, that it's not really way up.
I feel like my stuff is getting stale. Lots of great setups out there and me with no cash. Just a lot of sideways momentum. Don't get me wrong, I'm up almost 3% today, but there are much better setups than what I'm carrying right now.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/17/2007 01:51:00 PM
Brett
Hey, I dont care how I get em,at least when I get em, I dont get out....Hoorah SNP, LFC, PTR and ACH...sorry u missed the train Brett pullin out of the station..ALL ABOARD
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 01:55:00 PM
MGM
Flag Jeff mentioned yesterday looks good today
Posted by Sam_H | 10/17/2007 01:55:00 PM
ELON is gone. This one was in my RRSP and the trend is broke. Time to look for something like NOV that just keeps on going up.
Except today.
Is there anyone out there using Interactive Brokers that can explain to me why at the end of the day all the P&Ls go to minus massive figures? I checked my account just after close and it shows I lost $42,530 today. My heart can't take this (censored.)
Well the great thing is it was another up day in another down day on the market.
Thank you Jeff, and thank you everyone on the blog.
Posted by Chris and Catherine | 10/17/2007 02:03:00 PM
China-
I for one cannot figure out when or where REE is on these blasted plays. I keep missing LFC, ACH,etc.
CHU. I did get CHU. Off to $100 you go!
Posted by VA Beach Girl | 10/17/2007 02:04:00 PM
Sam,
Would you get into MGM now? I was going to wait until about $98. I've been watching that one, too.
Raimo,
I think your last comment to me puts us in The Goddesses blog area. :-)
Posted by Laney | 10/17/2007 02:05:00 PM
VA Beach Girl,
I hear you on the whole China thing and it is really starting to piss me off!
Posted by LisaG | 10/17/2007 02:09:00 PM
Jeff,
Kudos to you and your AWESOME Watchlist - Might want to change to name to TradeList...?
I only got stopped from one trade today and managed to be up at the close on as well as get into several new trades. Love the site!!!
Kurt
Posted by Anonymous | 10/17/2007 02:12:00 PM
Chris,
I think you made a huge mistake. There is no broken trend in ELON and earnings is just the thing to bust this massive ascending triangle. This stock's going to run to $42.50.
Keep your eyes on ACM. Beautiful pennant here about to break and a nice big move coming.
I can only assume HMIN has something to do with hotels for the Olympics. That is one hell of a move today. Jeff, thanks for getting me out in front of that one.
Posted by Brett | 10/17/2007 02:14:00 PM
I voted today and didn't want to get cuaght in that sand trap..plus you deserve it Jeff!
I had enuff with ELON and closed out today...
-Jrene
Posted by JRene | 10/17/2007 02:16:00 PM
I guess ELON just finished shaking out the last of the impatient.
As Jesse Livermore said, "It was always the sitting that made me the most money. Got that?"
There will be a breakout above $30, it will be on Jeff's watchlist, and everyone will be back in it.
Posted by Brett | 10/17/2007 02:19:00 PM
Dang it "caught". It is true engineers can't spell!
Posted by JRene | 10/17/2007 02:20:00 PM
Brett
ELON..you are spot on. In fact, ELON closed at REE...I too did not sell. It is at my exit, but did not close belwo my exit.
Laney..We cannot go there..the other blog....this blog is my home, I love the addicts here, and I'd rather stay here and be your slave....
How can I serve you?
Posted by Raimo | 10/17/2007 02:21:00 PM
You guys realize if you take away one of Raimo's vices (swearing), he is going to fill it with another! Watch out Laney!
Posted by Sean M. | 10/17/2007 02:33:00 PM
Raimo,
How can you serve me? Well, I need MON to go back up and I need CAH to go back down. Also, I could use an extra 50K. :-)
Posted by Laney | 10/17/2007 02:44:00 PM
Jeff,
I have cast my votes for you also. Seems like such a small way to say thanks for all that you do for us.
I took some profits off of the table in HMIN and MW. Others doing well are AMX,CNQ,NVDA,APD,etc. How did you learn to control your emotions when your trades took off in the correct direction? I set targets/exits when I'm entering a trade, but find that my behavior is closing the trade as the underlying nears those targets. I talk myself into taking the money and then going on to another setup. I try not to look back except to see if there is another entry point, but do notice that sometimes I did not maximize the potential. Any insights?
Posted by Anonymous | 10/17/2007 02:45:00 PM
DG, sorry I did not see your question on CHU. I had a price target of 3-5 points. I bought the Jan-20's. Realistically how can you set a price target on these China beasts...incredible.
ACH...away from my desk and missed the breakout to add to my position. went to the daily chart and was able to get in with a n 86 handle.
There was a nice set-up on the S&P daily charts. Clear break of 1542 and get short. I did not see the Inv H&S but used a MACD buy signal to get back at 1532.
Good Day..I love option expiration weeks.
Jamie
Posted by Anonymous | 10/17/2007 02:59:00 PM
Brett,
I love that quote.
Michelle
Posted by Anonymous | 10/17/2007 03:01:00 PM
Not in ELON, but may get some soon.
Am in CSCO and it look similar and in same industry.
thanks
strat
Posted by Strat | 10/17/2007 03:15:00 PM
I just signed my mom up to vote...
Posted by Unknown | 10/17/2007 03:37:00 PM
Krystal,
Girl, you are hardcore! :-)
Posted by Laney | 10/17/2007 04:24:00 PM
CLEAN CUPS
Posted by Sean M. | 10/17/2007 05:27:00 PM