Stan,

I checked out LEG...

Solid support at $18, its target from a triangle breakout on 6/18 (5yr chart)...

Better plays out there to short with more potential..

Thanks for the watchlist Jeff! Awesome work.


Some other plays:
CNQ (still at support - on jeff's list a while ago)
CTV (retest of triangle breakout yesterday... still a good entry)

-kevin

Jeff,
Thank you once again for an outstanding list and for all you do for this community. But you left out one thing....which one is the next buyout/takeover?

Tobin Smith of Changewave says VMW is a 10-bagger and that we should bank on it!!!
---

Bulls And Bears Weekly Wrap Up



Five Stocks for the Next Five Years

It's the five-year anniversary of the current bull market, and the "Bulls & Bears" decided to celebrate with our picks of the five best stocks for the next five years. Hey, what better way to celebrate the present than to look toward the future?

Bob Froehlich of DWS Scudder joined us for this segment, and he says the answer to this question is simple, it's all about China. Bob says China is where the growth is going to be in the next five years, and that means you'll want to own a bellwether Chinese stock like China Mobile Limited (CHL).

Gary B. thinks tech will lead the economy during the next few years, and he says the best way to take advantage of tech is via the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) exchange-traded fund. Gary says this index, unlike the Dow or S&P 500 (SPX), still has room to double in the next half-decade.

Pat Dorsey's pick is insurance company Progressive (PGR). He says this company is the lowest cost producer of insurance, and they have the best service. And at 10-times earnings, Pat argues that now is the time to buy PGR.

Scott's pick for the next five years is power optimization firm EnerNOC (ENOC). His theory is that our existing power grid is running down, and that means companies like EnerNOC will be key to making sure we get the most out of our power infrastructure.

My favorite pick for the next five years is virtualization software firm VMware (VMW). Five years is a long time, and you want to own a company that is going to grow big in those years. I think that this company will be 10-times larger during the next five years. Bank on it!

Guys, it seems to me that Beanie doesn't even read the comments. If he did, he'd know that he'd been "minimized." I mean, I take the time to read all 11,209,876 comments posted here daily. :)

Kevin, I'm in CNQ and I only have one word: FINALLY!

how do we feel about today's action in drys?

-steven

Steven,

I'm not in DRYS, so I think I can give you some fairly non-emotional feedback. It's down on pretty heavy volume, but the volume's been up there since it broke through the $105 mark, both on its up and down days.

What was your trading plan? Or are you thinking about buying this dip? I personally don't think this stock sees a top in sight, but I AM a newbie!

Awesome job as always Jeff.

I had about 30 people request a spread sheet that I offered last week - hopefully everyone that wanted it received it.

Also a BIG thank you to Mike from Seattle who was able to fix one issue that I had with buying & selling on the same day. It now works! If anyone needs the fix to that let me know.

Jim

Beanie, Beanie, has a tiny weenie.....

Let me add my THANKS for the list Jeff .. I had just finished the video and you loaded another post with more ...

No complaints here! It's great to see that some of the ones I am picking/buying are on your list .. Makes me think I am seeing progress in my abilities to see these patterns that you have so well taught!

Krystal,

My trading plan on drys has fallen appart long time ago since the stock just keeps going up so I've let it run...

I guess right now I am telling myself a down day is ok, even though it hurts ALOT! If it goes down again tomorrow I should get out and get myself the profits...

Would anyone feel the same?

-steven

Steven,

Not in DRYS myself so I am jealous. BUT!!!!!1

When you took the trade, what was your target, AND, what is your plan when you hit your target?

Money management is KEY. When I hit my target (RTR), my rules have me taking half off as a minimum, and let the rest run while monitoring it.

I have even been in trades where after taking half, the stock keeps running, so I take off another 1/4....

Taking profits is so important..and that does not mean you are not letting winners run..

Anyway, just how I trade....

Jeff, Just got thru with with video and now another list to go thru. THANKS! I love it! I learn so much going thru your list.

Everybody remember to vote today.

Thank you

Diana

Raimo .. you are one patient and consistent teacher on this blog .. I have seen you post so many things many, many times (i.e Steven response). I suggest cut and paste in the future - for your sake :)

Always great stuff! I look for the Raimo pix when I read here!

EEM look like good support to anyone else?

greg

Steven,

maybe the more experienced veterans can comment but looking at the chart it just looks like a little pullback in the context of a run up, you may just be hurting from seeing it up originally and now down so its a larger swing, it looks like it is sitting at tip of the last peak made, maybe if it makes a lower low than the previous one you take profits, but is still very much in an uptrend.

just my opinion.

Ben

Steven,

I am in DRYS and was thinking today was possibly an add point. Yes big volume on a down day, but 1 day in such a huge run means nothing. Has support broken..nope. Have it made a lower high? nope. Is there bearish pattern? nope.Its taking a breather in my opinion, that's all.

I just voted again, and they're no longer showing how many votes Jeff has... It just says "voted."

I have been eyeing ole DRYS myself as I always miss an entry. This almost looks like an entry to me.

QMAR, alas it did not work for my rules either yesterday but would have been nice today if it had.

OI...

U.G.L.Y. = Unrealized Gains Leaving You.

Got in on 9/26, was up about 70%, exited today with a small profit, and I do mean small. So it goes...

Raimo

OI hasn't violated my diagonal support yet but todays action, ugh

what say you?

I am in DRYS as well. I have already taken 1/2 off the table a while ago, and still sit on 2 contracts with a sizable unrealized gain.

After wrestling with what to do most of the day, I will probably sell 1 contract today and let the other ride for a day or two and see what develops.

There is no shame in taking profits (esp at a 269% gain)

Bob (and Pam)
I don't see support on DRYS until about 115.


Michelle

Jeff,
Why are the oil plays not moving more with oil hitting highs again today? Is it because the market overall is down?

Michelle

Michelle,

I think Jeff may be gone for the day. Seems like he said something about having a busy afternoon...

Guys!! THANKS SO MUCH!!! I do agree with the things you all said... makes me more comfortable to stay in the trade.. I LOVE DRYS!!! :-)

Raimo: I did not plan this trade right, my REE at the time was 84.5 and I planed to get out around 100 but I didn't see where that made sense once I reaced 100.. My contracts are January 2008 so I have plenty of time to make some extra and plenty of room for down days... I was just worried today... 130 this morning, 117 later in the day... high volume... SCARY!!! I gues I am also not position sized correct after it ran up this much!

-steven

Michelle, half the move we got today and DRYS will be there. Unfortunately, at that point I will probably be wondering about short term correct though.

My trades, like the market, have been all over the place today.

Wahly,

I am in OI and I am not selling today. It has not violated my trendline support but it has 7 days to make a move because I don't plan to hold over earnings.

I just dumped 30 call contracts of VTIV overboard. Brett- did you mean to say buy Puts instead of calls? lol- We'll get 'em next time buddy!
Stan

Sean M.

I'm staying in OI also as I agree it has not violated my trendline, took all my unrealized profits back today and then some, so I'm with you on the run up to earnings.

Michelle,

I believe Jeff said on yesterdays Marketcast that the market went down because oil went up.

--Patti

OI has not violated my trendline/horizontal support areas either so I am still in it. Of course now I'm only up 8%. Not planning to HOE either.

BIDU
Can someone please give me a non-emotional analysis?

Thanks, Kim

Stan, I'm not in VTIV abut just looked at the chart. I don't know where or when you got in but I like that hammer on today's action. Plus, at todays low, it bounced neatly off diag. resistance and never violated that line. Depending on what happens with tomorrow's market, this could be a beautiful REE. I'm putting it on my Maybe Tomorrow list.

Do I see some nice earnings coming in... IBM, Intel, ... waiting for yahoo... all this could push the nasdaq up tomorrow. :-)

-steven

Kim,

I can give my opinion, I would personally exit if it closes below 300. That is a big psychological number for most and it gapped up to 300 so you have a gap helping you too so if it fails its a good exit signal in my opinion.

It will probably be volatile into earnings, with some targets at 400 though I am sure it isn't done if they report good results since people will want to pile in for 30% more upside at least.

just how I am thinking of it, i got out at 355, however I wish I would have watched it today because I probably would have bought back in.

Ben

Is anyone else having difficulty getting the visual of Chris in a speedo, white socks and Crox out of their head from earlier today. I keep trying to picture Margaret Thatcher naked or a pile of dead puppies to rid my brain of that image. Its like trying to get the "its a small world" song out of your head after Disneyland!

OI..

I took OI (you all remember I am sure) as a trendline bounce at about $38. It has been bouncing about $3 each time, and I was anticipating a breakout, which we got, but then it fizzled out..when OI could not get over $44, and with earnings approaching, I bailed with a tidy little profit. I got out a couple of days ago.

BIDU..

As for BIDU, anyone getting now is CRAZY with earnings coming up. Of course that is just my opinion, and yes, I went long TODAY on BIDU...so call me CRAZY! But iwth Yahoo I expect to report good earnings, I expect BIDU to say good bidu $300..... (get it good... bi du $300...a funny)

Kim,

I can't give you an unemotional analysis of BIDU since I always get emotional about it (i love it).

However, I can tell you that Yahoo is up huge in the aftermarket. Google is up $9 and BIDU is up $6.50. I think BIDU has been a strong buy around $300 and I have bought multiple contracts down here.

Intel also beat, so you have to think the nasdaq will at least try to bounce higher tomorrow.

IBM is the only disappointment tonight, but it's not down that much.

Kim,
I agree with Ben... sort of. I have Fibs drawn up on this baby because it reacts beautifully to them. Or visa versa. Anyway... 300 is a strong fib on this chart and I think this area is a great entry point. I'm worried about earnings next week, obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a run up before them. I'd keep an eye on it. If it starts to run up and volume increases before earnings I'd be tempted to play it with a bit of a safety net in a put 10 pts lower. But that's just because I'm feeling cocky after BIIB.

DG I just got in VTIV yesterday but I'm very close to my 2% rule on it after today. Sheesh. I agree though that there's still some fudge room here if I move my line around a little bit. Tomorrow will tell the tale, I think. Just like PNR today. HANS came back today, too.

OI is within a hair of losing it's manhood.

Raimo. I have found that when you have to explain your funnies, it loses some of it's impact.

Nonetheless...


HA!

Some very nice eranings coming out tonight.

Nasdaq futures are up nicely +15. if this holds by tomorrow morning we should have a nice pop to the upside for nasdaq.

Thanks to portfolio hedging, I was able to more then cover for my bullish plays with bearish plays.

Thanks guys

Thanks Brett. I had $300 as my support line but I'm seeing that my call is not keeping pace with the price fluctuations of the stock which is causing me concern. My problem is that if it does indeed wind up to be a failed trade I'm going to lose way more money than I've planned for because of this point.

I am glad to finally hear positive news coming out of the market. Finally!

Sean,
I sent Jeff a picture of our family with Michael Buble about a month ago and he hasn't posted it... so don't expect to see that one either. Just picture Aaaaaaahnald in the middle of a competition and you've got me in a speedo. Replace the puppies with my cats and I'll be a happy boy.

Kim,

I think Raimo and Brett are both right (aren't they [almost] always?)

I'm still learning this stuff, but I like to look at the ProphetChart to observe what others see, as well as do my own analysis. What I see is a strong possibility of a bounce off an upward sloping trend line. The volume was lowest today out of the last four (this may not be that significant). Also, this chart looks a lot like the many other Chinese stocks that have pulled back to create a buying opportunity. Or if you are already in a position, you may be pleased with the days ahead.

Sorry to be so wordy, but that's my .22.

Chris,

Should I picture Aaaaaahhhnald in his prime or after his open heart surgery??

Ben, Raimo, Chris, VeroBarbara,

Thanks for giving me your opinions. It's honestly the first time I've been able to afford an option of this price and well....growing pains. Time for a martini.

Kim

verobarbara,
How come you get .22 when the rest of us only get .02? Keep that number away from Raimo, he'll turn it into a weapon.

Has anyone else noticed that most of the bloggers are doing unbelieveably well during the down days on the market? I am truly impressed with the number of people that are either up or just down a tiny bit (like beannie) on these down days. It's getting to the point where I almost look forward to a couple of bad days. I make a bit of money during them... but then when the market takes off... we're off to the races.

Nice work, everyone.

Kim,
BIDU up 7.10 after hours. I'm assuming you're already in the trade. I wish I was but I'm not crazy like Raimo... so I'll leave it alone and watch you guys and gals make a wad of cash. This set-up is soooooo sweet.

C2..

I'll try to refrain from that.

That is just my 30-06 worth...

I agree Chris. I atribute that to this blog and the experience many up us unwillingly received on 2/27. I realize having a balance between puts and calls limits profits in a strongly trending market but I will never leave myself exposed like that again. I used to fear turning on my computer in the morning and now I now longer do. Today, for instance, I bought some calls expecting a bounce tomorrow and held onto all but one of my puts. I am down $47.50 today on 16 positions. I have this blog to thank for having the knowledge to protect my account.

Kim,

I really did not offer much on BIDU, just that I went long today. But I'll tell you what...e-mail me your e-mail address and I'll make up for it by sending you my chart of BIDU, right from my crystal ball.

Honestly, no one should be upset about 'missing' BIDU, because no one has missed anything yet. Look on the intraday charts and you'll see a huge selloff following by a triangular consolidation. There's no technical buy point until the stock breaks above at LEAST $320/share.

Now, having said that, I don't always trade technicals, and I am long (a lot) of BIDU calls around $303. As you know from many of my past posts, I just can't pass up the opportunity to piss on an analyst's worthless downgrade (see VDSI, SNCR, etc.).

Jeff,
Thanks for the awesome watch list. I took down the following today.
LFG put
GME call
SCHN call
TTC short (options are P.U. on this)

BA bounced today off of news story. Nov. $100 call is $1.90. I see this as a good candidate to hold over earnings risking 100%.

=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
A LESSON IN HOW NOT TO PANIC
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=

You've heard me talk about TRAK, a stock play in which I was up about 30%. This is an IBD darling and in fact it was profiled today in the paper. I was clever enough to buy it when it bounced off support at 38 at the end of August.

So imagine my surprise when I looked at premarket (and this rarely trades in premarket) and see it called down $3.50. I check the news and it is something about issuing more shares and other fundamental stuff that I won't pretend to comprehend. To my horror, it continues to fall and before the market opens, this baby is trading down over $6!

I realized that I had a stop in and if I did not do something before the market opened, not only would I be stopped out, but at a price that would melt 75% of my profit. I cancelled my stop (with about 5 minutes to spare) and decided that I would take my chances that this is a gross over-reaction and I could recoup some of my gains and exit far more gracefully.

I admit to being a bit queasy when it opened down about $8 and continued to fall, but the 50 day MA held strong and it began to rally. It made it all the way back to a respectable -$3 before starting to slip again. I exited when it started to slip back, giving up $3.50 instead of $8something that Mr. Market wanted to take from me. And I walked away with almost 20% profit on the trade.

Whew....time for a cocktail.

DG- Here's a toast to your nerves of steel. Clink!
Stan

I agree with you Brett, had I not forgotten to put BIDU on my streamer today I would have gotten into at least 1 contract, although I wish I could afford "a lot" like you hahaha. Well, let me rephrase depending on what "a lot" is but if I buy more than 1 I'd likely be violating my risk rule.

3 good reports from major companies, all tech related should be good for the market and at least the nasdaq tomorrow I am hoping, hopefully a good up day going into vegas.

Ben

I know it's not even worth talking about but WHY on earth would you put playboy girls on every single freaking trading post you do... ( I am talking about that trading goddess guy that showed up earlier... LAME! ). Either you would have a trading blog or either a soft erotic blog but WHY would you combine both? Isn't a move like in BIID yesterday not sexy enough on it's own?

Anyway... I had to say it!

I LOVE THIS BLOG!!! Finally support for my addiction!!! BTW: I admit I am addicted, isn't that the first step towards recovery...hmmm in that case I AM NOT ADDICTED!! I need to buy some OA gear though :-)

-steven

BTW: thanks again for your help on drys today... I do need to learn how to plan / position size better so I won't freak out as much when drops take place!

I think patience and great relatively strong stocks have held many of us up on weak days. Jeff thanks for the awesome lists (that's all I need is to add 200 more tickers to my watch lists).

My .45 cents worth,

Cheers,
C4

Jeff,

Thanks for the watchlist.

I took down ABC, put and BEAV, call.

********************* STOP **************
********************* THE **************
******************** MADNESS **************

OK TAFKAA. You've had your fun. This inflationary madness has to end. You are not allowed .45 worth. Three postings at .15 each might be tolerated. Inflation will kill the markets.

Someone has to stop me, here. I went and voted three more times (my daughters now have more email accounts than I have teeth.) When I started the whole procedure we were #2 and the witch was #1. By the time I finished, the witch was #2... but we were #3. Inspector Gadget had leapfrogged from 3 to 1. I don't know if they're putting the top 3 in random positions, but I've got to stop before we fall off the face of the earth.

Sorry.

In case anyone cares... my WNR was up today!!! Everybody celebrate. Sort of makes you want to sing, and dance around the neighbourhood, doesn't it?

What I mean of course, is that WNR was actually down... making my put more valuable.

Chris,

Be careful with those pills to help your WNR, if you start to lose your vision consult a physician immediately!!

"my WNR is doing so well right now, ooohh, where did my watchlist go, I'M BLIND!!!" ;-)

Ben

Chris-
These next 3 weeks are going to be funny!

liz

I'm adding myself to the crazy list in regards to BIDU.

liz

Chris,

Is your WNR bouncing off resistance or support? If it is bouncing off support, then you need to rely on VOLUME to make it to the next level. If volume is lacking, then visit the Trading Goddess site (don't read, it does no good, just look at the pictures) and then see if you can break resistance. If you can't, then have Catherine hide the hammers (too much pressure) and visit PFE for additional support. Sometimes, if you are having "support issues", getting in with a good stock with good "product" can help. Remember, a rising tide lifts all WNR's.

OK enough guys ;-)

we do not want the tradergodess to get jealous of this blog.

Lets stop talking about our WNR's

Don't forget to keep voting guys!...

It's not too late to be a sniper and pick up some (very) short term trades. I got $100 a contract this morning selling October 75/80 short put verticals on one of our old favorites (for awhile anyway), NILE up $2.24 a share today to $84.08.
Stan

gang,
these last couple of days left us a lot of REE trades, i got into VTIV, yesterday and i agree it is right there if you fudge the line a little bit, tomorrow could go either way big, hopefully up with a little bull influence, RAIMO that is your job. Also in ANF, BYI, VLO,and, HANS at end of the day, could be a good day tomorrow. td

This comment has been removed by the author.

LFG opened and closed below support today. Finally! I've been hanging on to these January puts since September 24th because I knew this stock would break before I would. And as we all know, Old Support Becomes New Resistance. Not a lot of volume on this downward nudge but you don't need a lot of volume to roll down hill. Could be a good entry point for those of you that think the market has taken a bearish tone lately. Thank goodness for puts and shorts, that was the only reason I made decent money today other than AAPL, QMAR, POT and a handful of assorted spread trades I sold. This could be an interesting options expiration week. Who's getting out of Dodge before earnings? Who's doubling down?
Stan

stan,
i think you mentioned yzc earlier today as a good REE have you looked at it after market close, looks to me like it is sitting very precariously on the REE edge. td

Wow, the futures are sure in the green tonight! We will see what that means tomorrow. Some nice after market moves too.

I am thinking if we don't get it together with VOTING ON BLOGGER"S CHOICE AWARDS we are going to have hell to pay with Raimo.

And don't we owe it to Jeff?

If he as ever added to your positions,
isn't it the least you could do?

My .20 gauge worth.

C4

C4-
Are you splitting the difference with .20 so Chris won't give you too much crap?

liz

Bob-
Did you feel the earthquake last night around 2? I was hoping it was a rumbling in my account. I think there will be a nice aftershock tomorrow.

liz

Stan-
To answer your question. There are a few stocks I'm planning on staying in over earnings because I want to be in them until at least the end of the year. Which is a lesson in patience for me because I like to get in and out of trades as fast as I can. I start getting antsy.

liz

Liz,

I did not feel anything but at this point I do not seem to feel anything under at 3. Too long in CA I guess.

OA's,

A little something from the competition,

After sending several e mails to Tim Knight in my early days as an Investools student, user of Prophet Charts, reader of Slope of hope, and Knights "users manual" disguised as a book, he never responded, except as a complete asshole.......

but I finally got an e mail response…………. it was tonight........

What a F%&K CHOP!



********""Since you've written me in the past about my blog, I have a friendly favor to ask. As you know, I write a blog about stock trading every day called "The Slope of Hope" ( www.slopeofhope.com) which is about stock trading. I'm in the running for a Blogger's Choice award, whose voting ends this Friday. I'm currently 4th place for Best Business Blog, and with a little help, I think we can push this to a top 3 spot.

If you could throw a vote my way, I'd really appreciate it. It only takes a minute - it's free, although registering is a small pain. To sign up, click on this link:

http://www.bloggerschoiceawards.com/users/signup

And once you are signed up, click this link to cast your vote:

http://tinyurl.com/2w263k

Again, thanks for your vote if you can spare the time. It means a lot to me!

- Tim (http://www.slopeofhope.com)

P.S. If you voted for me already, sorry to have bothered you, and thanks!""***********

I say we use this to fuel the fire.....What an arrogant ass.....

Let's get out and vote for Jeff, someone who cares for his readers and not just himself as Mr. Knight appears again!

THIS REALLY PISSES ME OFF!!!!!

Goodnight all you option addicts.

Cheers,
ARTY the One Man Party

F$%K CHOP?!?!

LOL!

Hilarious!!!!!

liz

TD- I think YZC is ripe for a bounce but I am watching for some upward movement before getting in. Every nickel it goes down is another nickel in your pocket when it goes back up.
Stan

Witness the evolution of the next Cisco =====> VMW !!!!!!!

Earnings is Oct. 24.

The last day to buy the stock cheap is immediately after earnings. Get buying!

It's 5am , and instead of running through my lists like I normally do I am sitting here wondering why this bloggers choice award is even a close race here.

Addicts.....What the fuck? Jeff is #2 in the bloggers choice awards? This is embarassing to be honest.

I want every addict to take a moment and think about what is really at stake here...... an opportunity to give back to Jeff something he has never asked for.....and he deserves that from us.

I won't list the trades that I have cha chang from just from Jeffs picks alone, but they are limitless. His watch list alone, never mind the support given on this site, is worth the number one spot.

Lets get this done. If Jeff does not finish in the one spot, where he belongs, I am going to pop a vein.

Get er done.

Arty,

that was my 30-06 worth.

Stan, love the nickle theory..a true test of patience and smarts..

Personally, I have nothing against Tim, except that his version of technical analysis isn't something I would ever consider using. His blog is a great resource for trade ideas and contrary opinions. However, it's a blog, in that he posts and people comment.

This site, however, is more than a blog and perhaps should belong in its own category. This site has given me a career. And not just any career. A career that allows me to not only do what I love but live my dreams as well. It's educational, it's interactive, it's fun. It's given me some wonderful new friends, and it's a big part of my day, EVERY day.

As sure as the PHOENIX flies, spitting hellfire and leaving ash in its wake, you will win this competition. And I will be there in Vegas to congratulate you with a toast at our table at the Rhino.

I got the same email from Tim. I have voted as many times as I can. I even created a few email addresses to do so. I've got about 10 or more votes in my names. To get any more, I have to start calling in favors from people who don't even know what an option is. But I'll see what I can do.

agree with all our great traders,,,,we HAVE to make sure Jeff wins this,,,,everyone,,please,,,use every email at your disposal and create some more,,ask everyone you can to vote,,i'm going to call in some favors to get this done,,,I know we can do this and no one deserves it more than Jeff

VOTE AND VOTE SOME MORE

Going on record to say I have voted several times and created a few new email accounts. Sending an email to my sister right now to have her vote as well. I'm sure her response is going to be WTF??? I will tell her to just do it!

Liz,
You crazy girl! Did you buy BIDU at the close?? :-)

Woo-hoo if you did!

MTN is right on REE. Perfect entry and fairly cheap options.

CTRP - diag and horiz REE as well.

Not everyone's going to like this one, since the IV is up near 100%, but VMW is a nice bounce. I want to thank C4 for alerting me to this one 2 days ago. Looks like we may be off and running today.

Bloggers Choice Awards-
From a strategy perspective it might be better to lie in wait until the last day and blitz the site late w/ more e-mails and votes. We can catch them off guard and not show our hand until then. What do you think?

I have briefly looked at the other sites and have no clue why Jeff would not be number one.

Today looks to be setting up to be a good one.

Kim, I think at least one of the competition comes here to spy.

Played the nice gap on LFC and BIDU but only in Pam's paper money account...testing what I thought I saw.

OK guys,

This is ridiculous. By the end of today I will have 20 more votes on there for Jeff. I agree with you wholeheartedly Ramio. Let's make this happen. I thought by now there wouldn't even be a race.

Here is to you Jeff.

Anu

Hi, My name is broken record.

BIDU. Down $7 and my contract was down $655. Today up $13.00 and my contract is up $575. Is anyone else experiencing the same thing?

Broken record,
While it is only in paper money yes that is what is happening here as well.

Laney-
I actually bought BIDU on that huge dip.


Kim (or today broken record)-
I'm not sure if I'm correct but I think it's because the bid/ask spread is so large.


liz

No more saying negative things towards Mr. Knight because I want my prophet charts to work and they're being all weird this morning on TOS. Anybody else having problems?

liz

Arty,

I cut and pasted your comment into Word and did spellcheck....then LOL.

sometimes it takes me a minute.

Jamie

Liz,
I'm in IT but Prophet is fine on this end.

Liz,

Prophet is slow and weird here too, maybe a CA thing. Ok, this is not what I was looking for from the market so far. PUTS going down (price) and CALLS weak.

Anyone else rocking some CMA puts this am??

hmmmmm????

Liz,
My Prophet charts are kind of freaky this morning, too.

Michelle

I am one who has not bought BIDU ... for the reasons you are having contract growth on big outbursts.

Thanks to Sue for enlightening me with the THEO pricing on TOS, BIDU just doesn't live up to the option growth vs. stock growth (that's how I explain it anyway). I couldn't stretch my rules to buy that when GOOG actually has a little cheaper option price but THEO works in my favor with GOOG and not BIDU .

Just my $02 cents .. Hope this helps you some.

VA Beach Girl,

Good thinking coach! What does everybody else think?

Maybe in the meantime we can get our friends and relatives to vote just to keep us in the top 3. And then towards the end of the day on Friday, we all go crazy setting up new emails: hotmail, gmail, yahoo, everything, and voting!

BTW, Arty the one man party, I agree that Tim Knight's book was indeed an instruction manual disguised as a book. Since I have not have IT's A.T., the patterns that he introduced in the book were useful to me. But for those who already know about patterns, yes, the book is a user manual for Prophet Charts. In fact, as I read through the book, I skipped over the parts about how to use ProphetCharts.

I can't believe he would never even email you back. I don't like that. Not only do we get email responses from Jeff for every single email, but we get posts, watchlists, and daily interaction.

Guys, apparently our competition is not worthy. I think I will cry if we don't win. I think Chris may be on to something though... are they showing the top 3 in exact order, or are they just showing who the top 3 are and not necessarily what order they're placing at the moment? Because if you just sit there and keep clicking refresh, they just keep changing places...

I have a question on open interest. Researching ATU last night the open interest on OTM options was 1000+ while all the other strike prices were double didgit.

Do I trust this interest to be there when I go to sell? Or do you look at all interest when considering a trade?

Thaks in advance.

Diana

Diana,

Being a newbie, I can't give you a good answer. But there are some more experienced bloggers who probably can.

In the meantime, Jeff has an archive (to the right) titled "Open Interest" and it gives his take on O.I. Have you checked that out? :)

Vote for Jeff!

Got into OIH this morning about 20 minutes into the trading day. Thought it had hit a bottom and was rallying. Felt good about myself for finally getting a little OIH at a good price. No more than pushed the button and it dropped quite a bit. I'm down $135. My stop is $198.

Yesterday, I bought XOM, OI, and HANS. I did not have OI on my watchlist and I don't remember it from Jeff's, but you OA's were discussing it. I looked at it, studied it, liked it. Thanks OA's for putting it on my radar.

I was so disgusted after I read the comments on this blog regarding Beanie's post on the other blog. I say we never mention the "B" word again!

Congrats to you brave souls in BIDU! Up $10.45!! I was too chicken to do it.

My Prophet charts are working fine in Iowa. You just need to keep your disease to yourself Willis! LOL. Seriously though, I'm sorry you're having trouble. There is nothing more irritating than trying to trade without all the tools you're use to using.

Dan & Barbara,

That was me who posted B's comments here. I wrestled with whether or not I should do it, but I decided that we all deserved to know what he was doing behind our backs. And I knew it would rally us to cast more votes against him.

But I was disgusted, too. Why does he come here and post comments on our blog only to badmouth us? I've become very protective of my pals on this blog in the short time since I've been here, and I think Jeff deserves to win it all!

Okay, sorry for the rant! :)

Oh, and don't feel bad about OI. I closed it out yesterday with a $10 profit, and NOW it decides to go up. Sheessh!

My prophet charts were squirrely this morning but seem to be ok now.

AZO - got me some puts on Monday and am enjoying the ride down.

did anyone trade LFC besides me? I almost added yesterday,but decided to wait for confirmation, now its run away. Wait for the pullback. I liked that it had been mentioned on the marketcast and was already in. I knew all those IT students would push the stock up. Look for new support around $100.

Krystal,

I'm glad you put them out there. I was ok with Beanie posting. I'd even enlarge his comments once in a while. I think (and still do) that everyone should have the opportunity to post if they wish. However, I believe there is a strong loyalty in our OA blog. Someone mentioned this blog is like a family. AND IT IS. So for "B" to go and disrespect our blog on another blog .......

Just my two cents.

Barbara

I'm all GOOGly-eyed this morning. Shock and awe. And PCP has bounced off it's support finally.
Have a look at SNDA. Nice move today, accounting for 75% of my profits so far today.

liz... if you want to get out of DRYS while it sits here and consolidates, NM is just starting to take off. You could ride the NM Rocket for a few days and then jump back into DRYS.

Yikes... just watched 25% of my profits evaporate while I was typing. I'm not convinced this up-tick will last the day.

Don't even think about Beannie. I think he just has a document he creates and he pastes it onto every trading blog out there. He doesn't even read what we're saying here. He can't be bothered to put the effort into trading options. Too much like real work.

Haiku for CNQ...

Oh my CNQ
19 days I have waited
On up with you now

OA's,
if you go to the best business category in bloggers choice, and keep hitting the refresh button on your web browser, it rotates the top three around constantly, therefore it is very possible Jeff is in first place. And by the looks of the other two blogs, it wouldn't make sense that jeff wasn't in first.

greg

Tim, too funny!

Greg, I agree.

Man, OIH. I really need to work on my patience on waiting for my ree. Market did not seem to like the crude inventory report.

Man, what is up with ACH? I was going to get back in if it broke above 80, since it was hitting some decent resistance, now it gaps up 10 dollars on no news.

Hmm, may be needing to ride it to 100 possibly.

Ben

Chris & Catherine, anyway to get in touch with either of you via email? Thanks

Jose - the super newbie!

D&B,

When did you get in? I'm in COP and XOM. COP is doing fine, but XOM is down a little. Not breaking support though. I got in XOM at REE on Monday.

I agree with you about REE. I'm getting more and more fierce about getting into a play ONLY if I can get it at REE. If I can't, then I move on. That's it. Otherwise, it's too risky for me.

Barbara,

Hey just wanted to say it was nice to meet you and Dan Monday night and look forward to you two joining our group.

Doji Girl,
Is your target on AZO $115? I got out of AZO when it broke the $115. Now leary to get back in. It's past a good entry on a put play for me now. If it would happen to bounce off $115, and then break $125, there could be a 15 point move. Lot of if's, huh? Day by day and watch my chart. Good job and enjoy the ride down.

Barbara

Krystal,
REE used to be some nebulous, nepahrious, whispy thing that everyone talked about and everyone but me used. I would see it... but I'd have a wad of cash in my account and I'd be afraid if I saw a trade that I didn't get into, I'd lose out on good profits. So I'd get in a long way from REE and get hammered. Finally... after many sleepless nights on the back deck (where Catherine had banished me to... with the stupid cats) I realized that REE works. And we get SO MANY great setups on this site that you can't possibly use them all. So I started to use REE. And it had been my friend. Don't want to jinx myself, but since using REE religiously I have yet to have a negative week.

Can I have a haleluja?

Jose Carlos welcome to the family. You're welcome to email me at

chris200@cogeco.ca

I hope you're not looking for valuable information, though, as Catherine has it all and she never lets me in on any of it. I just do as I'm told. Would love to chat though.

Wahly,
Thanks. It was nice to put a face to a name. We don't think we will be there next Monday. We signed up for Jeff's option class. I thought about asking if we could do it as a class, but would need a speaker phone. I'm not too computer literate. Maybe there is a way we could do that for Monday's meeting.

Barbara

Raimo,

Need to "VIST" SLope of Hope with Tim Knight.... He is really pouring on the coal this morning against us...He did however slam the "Queen" pretty good...

JJ

I know all China trades should probably be approved by the Premier of China (Mr. Raimo) but here goes one:

CHU is breaking a out of a pennant this A.M. It is struggling with its old high now. Add it to your list. Nice R/R.

HMIN was Brett's idea a few days ago. It is breaking out today with volume.

Jamie

Addicts - I created another 60 email addresses this morning...do you all think it might be better to wait until the last minute or so to vote, or get them up there now? I think if I wait, then there's nothing the other bloggers can do about it. What say you?

HMIN was Jeff's idea, sorry I can't take credit for it!

Brian, if you wait, you can catch the other blogs unawares! :)

What does everybody else think?

sue,
Are you out there?
Check out ANF on the TOS theo calc. I wouold expect this to be a good ree but the nov paper is not even a 2:1. do you agree

Would someone give me their opinion on BCSI? I bought Jan $40 call. My reason for buying was anticipating a break out of an ascending triangle. I drew my bottom trendline from August 22 and the top trendline from August 24 at $43.55. I set $53 as my target. Does anyone see this differently? It's trading over $50 now and I'm getting a bit antsy (?). Do I need to have just a wee bit more patience?

Also, how does everyone handle getting close to their target? Are candlesticks, shape of the market, etc, all part of the decision whether to sell close to the target, or wait for the target to be reached?

Thanks for any input.

Barbara

BCSI up above on $50 on decent volume this morning...

Barbara

Hope you guys do come to Monday nights meeting as we plan on watching Jeffs class and well have phones

Brian, start voting now. It will take a while to do 60 votes. Nice job though on creating so many accounts!

Barbara, AZO - I was also in that trade at the 115 level and got stopped out a couple days later. I've watched it retrace on a fib all the way back to the 50% level and stall there. Yes, my first target is 115 and knowing me I'll probably exit there. But a second target is all the way down to the low at about 108.

Tim posts for me re CNQ. THough I'm not into haiku.

Barbara - I posted that snippet on BCSI as you were posting your question. I think you still have room to run here. If you take the action from Oct 10 @ $40 to yesterday's $48 close as an Ascending Triangle, you can project another $8 from here. I'd be holding for more gains, and I am adding to this in the IRA here.

Jeff,

Since I was away for a few days,wanted to know are you still riding w/ me on DRYS,FSLR and LFC?

let's keep it going.........

next one is........

BCSI - I was in that trade when it broke out, but took profits after 2 days because I was going away. Just got in again yesterday. My target was 53ish then and it still is. At that point I will sell half and keep the rest until first sign of weakness. In the past I would have sold it all but I am trying to see if I have the discipline to practice Raimo's RTR.

Brian K,

to evaluate the ANF trade, i plugged in $5 move in 2 weeks with 5% drop in iv,it could do better but i run numbers on the conservative side,,,that would be a 40% return on a nov 85 call in 2 weeks,to eval your true risk to reward,,,you have to set a stop loss price,,so depending on your stop loss,,this impacts your risk to reward,,if you are expecting a 40% return ,your risk should be no more than 20%,,,,does this help, if not you can email me

Jeff,
Thanks for YZC.


Michelle

I just created another email account... Tim said on his blog that we are a loyal bunch to Jeff since most of his bloggers haven't even bothered to vote...

Eat your heart out, Tim!

Brian,
Wait til the last minute. Well, maybe hour. I've voted, and voted, and voted, ..... Sure hope it helps. Someone said this is a nice way to show Jeff our support and I agree. GO AO's!

Wahly,
Great! We'll plan on being there as long as the "creek don't rise"! LOL

Barbara

Doji Girl & Brian,
Thanks for the evaluations. It really helps to have an extra set of eyes.

Barbara

I wasn't going to say anything about this .. but thought you all should know - if you didn't notice yourself.

Tim Knight lurks here ... and has been on this site a few times in the last few days ... I enjoy Prophet charts and think Tim has designed a business goldmine for himself. .. I have nothing against Tim and I like to see what he is bearishly playing .. but have traded very few of his recos ..

All that to say ... this site IS THE WINNER already ... we just need to let the rest of the world know it and glad to see such interest being taken in the voting .. I have voted several times .. and intend to some more ....

Keep it up! The Raimo consequences would be extreme pain! :)))

Jamie, I'm looking at CHU but I'm having trouble with the R/R. What do you see as a target?

NVDA - gapped up at open
DVA - doing what it is supposed to
SII - pulled back to 70-ish S
FCX - someone must be having second thoughts (I'm blaming CNBC)

Jeff,
I think I remember Josh saying you were premature on FSLR on the marketcast. I know he was only teasing you. I think not. What a pick!!!!


Michelle

Sue,
I understand what you are saying but I guess I have been using -10% in the iv and I was suprised how fast the theo drops off after 11/1 with the 85's.

Is this a trade you would take. I guess on a 2:1 needing 2pts for target I would not take this based on the decay after 11/1.

My point is, I'm noticing with the the theo calc I am staying away from trades like this. Haven't been using it long enough but some options don't decay as fast and the ratios are better. Am I correct?

Sue,
OOOPs, second paragraph, meant 4 pts.

That doggone ELON... Echelon Corp. More like Inch Along Corp. What is the point? Break up or down, PLEASE!!!

Brian K,

you are completely correct,,,this calculator can keep you out of trades that wont work even if your analysis is correct,,,thats what makes it so great
based on your target and timespan, i would not take it, but that is based on what you interpreted,,someone else can have a different analysis that would work,,,don't want to diss Jeff's reco :)

Anybody else in Resp? See the news?

Sue,

How do you determine where to set the Vol. Adj. I know you showed this to me, but I still struggle with it.

Thanks,
VeroBarbara

The news keeps saying "rising oil prices; oil at all-time highs," yet my oil positions are down. What's up with that? Anybody else experiencing this?

Michelle

If you have been waiting to get into MON ... you might put it on your radar now .....

Hi fellow addicts,

I am new to this blogging thing and am very impressed by this community! You guys rock.

On voting, I am pretty sure that the site automatically rotates the top 3 - if you hit the refresh button, the next one comes up top. We will never really know our standing until the last day. How about if we nominate Jeff for Best Education Blog as well? Their 4th place winner only has 81 vote. We can take them down easily!

Grace

Michelle,
I'm in NOV and BHI as oil plays, and both are down. I believe the reason is that the Crude inventories were up this morning, that usually results in short term pullbacks in oil service stocks's not usually a aare up. , and oil stocks usually suffer from that kind of news.
The option activity seems to show that more people are buying into the weakness, which is a good sign.
That's my take, anyway. I actually added to my NOV a little while ago.

Michelle,
I'm in NOV and BHI as oil plays, and both are down. I believe the reason is that the Crude inventories were up this morning, that usually results in short term pullbacks in oil service stocks's not usually a aare up. , and oil stocks usually suffer from that kind of news.
The option activity seems to show that more people are buying into the weakness, which is a good sign.
That's my take, anyway. I actually added to my NOV a little while ago.

I hope we see rally into the close, otherwise I don't like being in 3 long positions and no puts, although it looks like I'll be getting out of FCX today.

Ben

Sue,
Thanks, I agree whole heartedly(nurse talk). I just wanted to feel better about what I was seeing and bounce it off someone.

VeroBarbara,

when evaluating volatility,i just use the ave impl vol as a study and just look at it to see if it is extended and by how much,,,if it is reading 70 but the yearly mean is 50,then i plug in a drop of 20% since it could easily happen,,then i know if iv drops significantly, will i still make money
i always put in a drop of at least 5% no matter what

Sue,

Thanks. I'm going copy what you said into my trading notes doc.

Sue,
I have actually been using that calculator too when entering my trades. I have been trying to keep track of how accurate it is when I do exit, and it is pretty close. Definitely worth looking at in my opinion.

And I do the same thing with volatility--look at where it has been and where it is going. The only time I don't change it at all is if earnings is approaching in the next few weeks since it normally tends to increase somewhat. In that case I leave it a zero.

Very helpful though, thanks again.

STI - I have a really nice profit in this, probably my biggest (except for BIIB) and earnings are today after the close. This hasn't hit my target but I'm thinking of taking at least half if not all off. Anybody else in this?

ok I only left for like an hour and come back to every thing being down, what report came out that I missed?

MA

If anyone panicked and sold, I just added at $152..REE....

STP

y'heard?

Doji

I just sold my STI for a hugh profit about an hour ago. I think the stock has made 3/4ths its move so I'm not willing to gamble by holding over earnings, hope that helps.

Man, this stuff on TOS sounds awesome. I think I'll give Tom a call and see if the Cdn version is up and running yet. They charge twice what IB does, but it sounds like I could more than make that up with their tools (if you'll pardon my saying so.)

Bob (and Pam) are you there? Did you hold onto PNR my friend? I sure hope so. I don't want to say "I told you so"... but... I just did.

XOM and NOV are my two big losers today. Puts them both at a great entry point if anyone's wanting in on the oil bonanza.

SNDA has pulled back dramatically costing me $800 in profits from this morning. I think it might stand for "Some New Downward Action." Wish I'd known that before I bought the calls.

wahly,
Nice call on STI!! Here's what I would have done. Sell all but one contract, then lie down in front of the car and wait for Catherine to hear what the results are tonight. A little prayer goes a long way in a setup like that, too.

SPLS was playing mind games this morning. Up dramatically at first (for a perfect REE) and now it's pulling back. I just got back from there trying to rectify a technical difficulty I'm having on a little project that's headed to Nevada soon. Quiet as a churchmouse in there.

WNR is the erecto set of puts today.

Krystal,
ELON: Your pun was VERY funny!

RESP: What's the news? I can't find anything but it's killing my profits today.

Kim

Chris good one but if I lie down in front of a car and the earnings go SOUTH does that mean Catherine would run me over :)

Now I've got some serious cash to jump into some of these pull backs.

Doji,
I'm also in STI, and I'm going to sell before the close, but the way it's been trending down all day, I might watch it a little while.

CHU, I'm playing this as a trend trade. Bought some Jan. paper ITM because IV is screaming. Almost just bought the underlying.

Thanks Wahly, had sold half before you responded and just sold the other half with this last slip down. I guess I was just either getting greedy or trying too hard to wait for my target. But you are right, not worth the risk over earnings. Maybe all the bad news is priced in already.

This leaves a big hole in my put positions.

What is up (or really down) with POT, Oil and FTI?

Have to run to meetings so could someone work on this. Oh and Chris thanks for talking to PNR.

Doji Girl:
I am in STI as well and will sell at least 1/2 at 3:00 today ahead of earnings. Bought the Puts on Monday. Not a bad return for 2 days. Thanks again to Jeff.

MMP - just looked at the options and this is still at REE but look at the open interest on the Nov 40 puts. Almost no open interest anyplace else but 3200+ on the Nov 40s. WTF???

Also just realized that the volume in this stock is probably too low to trade this. Any other opinions on this one? Should I move on?

Kim,

RESP: In a nutshell, the news just says that Respironics will be announcing earnings on Thursday October 25. So I really don't know why they're going down like they are. Maybe the news announcement just reminded shareholders of the upcoming earnings and they decided to bail.

Dunno...

Since my ACH position was up 500% and I only had one contract that was far beyond my target, I set a trailing stop as the VIX started to rise… net 400% gain…

At Raimo’s direction (unbeknownst to him), I have started taking this approach on all my extended positions in the past month that I have only one contract on rather than letting them retrace too much with great success on locking profits. With more than one contract, have been selling ½ + the position and letting the other half run and possibly adding if it retraces to where I would normally enter a trade. This has helped curb emotion and banking those unrealized gains.

After the Chicago conference I have been working diligently at reducing my losing trades by 10%. This too has been very helpful. How? Mostly by cutting down on positions sizes and stop hoping by letting the charts execute my exit rules rather than my mind.

Jeff, I’m sure you already know this but it looks like The UNT is finally breaking down today.

DG,

I'm thinking about getting into MMP today, too. The Jan Open Interest looks better...

Guys,

Keep an eye out on FFIV for a potential 6 pt bull flag break out before earnings. Looks like it is bouncing from $40.50 support today also.

Grace

In case you guys were wondereing what the daily life of a full trader is like, it goes something like this...

Brett (to Raimo)- "Maybe we can get an inverse head-and-shoulders here"

Raimo- "Don't I fucking wish, on what, on the S&P?"

Brett- Sh#t, on ANYTHING at this point...

Some humor on a down day...(mahmood might enjoy this more than the others, but it's pretty funny).


Tragic Local Courtroom Drama plays out in Omaha

Omaha, NE (AP) -
A seven-year old boy was at the center of a Douglas County courtroom
drama yesterday when he challenged a court ruling over who should have

custody of him. The boy has a history of being beaten by his parents
and the judge initially awarded custody to his aunt, in keeping with
child custody law and regulation requiring that family unity be
maintained to the highest degree possible.

The boy surprised the court when he proclaimed that his aunt beat him
more than his parents and he adamantly refused to live with her. When
the judge then suggested that he live with his grandparents, the boy
cried and said that they also beat him.

After considering the remainder of the immediate family and learning
that domestic violence was apparently a way of life among them, the
judge took the unprecedented step of allowing the boy to propose who
should have custody of him.

After two recesses to check legal references and confer with the child

welfare officials, the judge granted temporary custody to the Nebraska

Cornhuskers, whom the boy firmly believes are not capable of beating
anyone.

Chris and Sean,
The tail-less lizard just ran across my living room floor. No kidding...

Anybody taking down some NVDA?

Brett and Raimo,
Glad to see I'm not the only one cussing at the market today.

Did anyone notice how the the VIX isn't pacing to the north with the decline of the S&P? What does that mean?

Hey guys,

I hope this doesn't make anyone angry but could we possibly curtail the use of the "F" word? There are so many other adjectives that could be used.

Thanks.

I love how Raimo censors Shit and not fuck, LOL. Can I get in on these convos? hahaha.

I do not like this turn of events, which means what? I am likely not diversified enough, DING!

Ben

For what it is worth --

This morning I sold BIIB, LFC, and DVA for profits. Oct paper.

Just entered into MON, VDSI, and SII. I think they are all good entry points.

Looking for a recovery at the end of day.

thanks
strat

Brian,
I've been in NVDA since last Friday (10/12) and loving it. Up 80% on it.

Ben,
You are right, probably not diversified enough! Although I have a few more calls than puts, the calls I have are strong ones. KBH is my best performing put. Been in that once since Oct. 11 and it has done nothing but go down.

CLEAN CUPS!!!

Uh-oh, a little dandruff for the bears!!

I GOT MY HEAD AND SHOULDERS!!